Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: After this convincing win, the Packers are probably going to go over 60% dvoa over their last 4 games. I can frigin see it now...it's going to be Rodgers vs Brady in the nfc championship, isn't it? Why wouldn't it? PLEASE, NO.
Sorry Biscuit, I was pissed about losing my Panthers bet, good call on the Tom Brady's. I even wrote down how my bet was going to lose, and still bet the Panthers
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Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: After this convincing win, the Packers are probably going to go over 60% dvoa over their last 4 games. I can frigin see it now...it's going to be Rodgers vs Brady in the nfc championship, isn't it? Why wouldn't it? PLEASE, NO.
Sorry Biscuit, I was pissed about losing my Panthers bet, good call on the Tom Brady's. I even wrote down how my bet was going to lose, and still bet the Panthers
Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1: Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: After this convincing win, the Packers are probably going to go over 60% dvoa over their last 4 games. I can frigin see it now...it's going to be Rodgers vs Brady in the nfc championship, isn't it? Why wouldn't it? PLEASE, NO. Sorry Biscuit, I was pissed about losing my Panthers bet, good call on the Tom Brady's. I even wrote down how my bet was going to lose, and still bet the Panthers
The D-line missed Calias Campbell big time, soon as they got nothing after that 60 yd return i was fairly certain they were not going to get it done.Crap this post was intended for the Ravens mention.
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1: Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: After this convincing win, the Packers are probably going to go over 60% dvoa over their last 4 games. I can frigin see it now...it's going to be Rodgers vs Brady in the nfc championship, isn't it? Why wouldn't it? PLEASE, NO. Sorry Biscuit, I was pissed about losing my Panthers bet, good call on the Tom Brady's. I even wrote down how my bet was going to lose, and still bet the Panthers
The D-line missed Calias Campbell big time, soon as they got nothing after that 60 yd return i was fairly certain they were not going to get it done.Crap this post was intended for the Ravens mention.
@undermysac Nice Does a difference of 1.5 between ur line and their line warrant that larger bet? Or are u just going larger cause ur up on season?
Well I did say the spread should be -3 at most. I have trouble dealing points for hfa in recent years, not like back in the day where every home team was a simple 3 for home field.
Sagarin gives 1.89 for hfa. Other dudes I've listened to give anywhere from 1.5 to 2.0, it's a hard science.
So the reason I made the bigger wager is a couple reasons.
One, I don't think the line lasts. I have to guess that it will get bet down to 3.5, and if it does, that won't be public $. This is just a guess.
Two, the Lions O line. I've been talking about them all year. Good o lines travel well. They have kept Goff clean. He hasn't thrown a pick in 8 straight games. I want that when backing a dog vs a divisional opponent. 4.5 points to boot.
With all due respect to the guys mentioning the cold and outdoors for this dome team, is that all you got? I mean it could play a bit, but how much?
I can't see this game going any other way than it being a great game to the very end. Both teams will play their asses off. It should be decided by a fg imo.
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Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz:
@undermysac Nice Does a difference of 1.5 between ur line and their line warrant that larger bet? Or are u just going larger cause ur up on season?
Well I did say the spread should be -3 at most. I have trouble dealing points for hfa in recent years, not like back in the day where every home team was a simple 3 for home field.
Sagarin gives 1.89 for hfa. Other dudes I've listened to give anywhere from 1.5 to 2.0, it's a hard science.
So the reason I made the bigger wager is a couple reasons.
One, I don't think the line lasts. I have to guess that it will get bet down to 3.5, and if it does, that won't be public $. This is just a guess.
Two, the Lions O line. I've been talking about them all year. Good o lines travel well. They have kept Goff clean. He hasn't thrown a pick in 8 straight games. I want that when backing a dog vs a divisional opponent. 4.5 points to boot.
With all due respect to the guys mentioning the cold and outdoors for this dome team, is that all you got? I mean it could play a bit, but how much?
I can't see this game going any other way than it being a great game to the very end. Both teams will play their asses off. It should be decided by a fg imo.
Before hitting the hay last night, I was thinking the banker/lock of the day should be NO to 'Will Cy take the over in the Sunday Nighter'. Lo and behold....WTF.
Chase O82.5 rec. yds.
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Before hitting the hay last night, I was thinking the banker/lock of the day should be NO to 'Will Cy take the over in the Sunday Nighter'. Lo and behold....WTF.
That Ravens game boiled down to one thing. And that is Kenny Pickett. He made the drive that all great qb's make in crunch time. The Steelers won that game, and they deserved it.
If the kid amounts to anything, I'm gonna guess that you boys will not be enjoying playing Pitt 2 times a year for the foreseeable future.
The Ravens are going to have to reevaluate the qb position. Even with Lamar coming back, I don't think he lasts too much longer with his style of play. It's just a fact all Ravens fans are going to have to face. A running qb will wear down like a rb.
The problem for the Ravens is, that their entire offense is built around Lamar. They better get a younger version of Lamar in that qb room, or redesign the whole offense.
It ain't Huntley.
This may sound nuts, but I would take a flyer on Trey Lance. I bet the Niners wouldn't ask for too much of him in a trade. They all ready fucked themselves in giving away a ton of draft picks for him. At the moment, Purdy is the best discount qb in the league.
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@Biscuiteater1
@bigred84
That Ravens game boiled down to one thing. And that is Kenny Pickett. He made the drive that all great qb's make in crunch time. The Steelers won that game, and they deserved it.
If the kid amounts to anything, I'm gonna guess that you boys will not be enjoying playing Pitt 2 times a year for the foreseeable future.
The Ravens are going to have to reevaluate the qb position. Even with Lamar coming back, I don't think he lasts too much longer with his style of play. It's just a fact all Ravens fans are going to have to face. A running qb will wear down like a rb.
The problem for the Ravens is, that their entire offense is built around Lamar. They better get a younger version of Lamar in that qb room, or redesign the whole offense.
It ain't Huntley.
This may sound nuts, but I would take a flyer on Trey Lance. I bet the Niners wouldn't ask for too much of him in a trade. They all ready fucked themselves in giving away a ton of draft picks for him. At the moment, Purdy is the best discount qb in the league.
The Lamar situation is turning into a major problem all around!!It's no big secret how to defend against us,load the box and dare us to throw. Greg Roman will pay the price for the Ravens having no outside threat.Even if Lamar comes back next week how well will he perform with what 4 weeks of no practice.
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@undermysac
The Lamar situation is turning into a major problem all around!!It's no big secret how to defend against us,load the box and dare us to throw. Greg Roman will pay the price for the Ravens having no outside threat.Even if Lamar comes back next week how well will he perform with what 4 weeks of no practice.
Purdy could be next year assuming he continues on this trajectory.
Thanks for insight into your thought process. Stuff like this is how we all improve. How many 2.5 units you made this nfl season?
Lions should play them tight. But packers D firing on all cylinders. The lions win streak only good d they faced was Jets, bills . Panthers...they went 1-2.
Regarding home field. There are a few places that definitely deserve higher weight...Lambeau. arrowhead. Seattle. 3 off top of my head. They have a significant difference compared to some others. But as you say nowadays its almost a personal number as opposed to standard 3...
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@undermysac
Hurts currently best discount qb til next year
Purdy could be next year assuming he continues on this trajectory.
Thanks for insight into your thought process. Stuff like this is how we all improve. How many 2.5 units you made this nfl season?
Lions should play them tight. But packers D firing on all cylinders. The lions win streak only good d they faced was Jets, bills . Panthers...they went 1-2.
Regarding home field. There are a few places that definitely deserve higher weight...Lambeau. arrowhead. Seattle. 3 off top of my head. They have a significant difference compared to some others. But as you say nowadays its almost a personal number as opposed to standard 3...
The Bengals had that weird game against the Browns where they got smoked in prime time. Did not look at all like the team I expect to hang in there and possibly win tonight.
Same could be said about Lions with that Panthers game. One concerning thing, is the run D. Just recently. Pack can run it, and then #12 will make you pay for paying too much attention to it. They need a pass rush in this game. They cannot allow #12 to reset the pocket, etc, and get secondary move completions. I am really excited for this game. As a Pack fan and shareholder (secondary to the greatness of the Raiders of course)....I pull for them, and the Lions are my baby girl and have been so so sweet to my bankroll this season.
I 100% agree with Sac that this line is slightly too big. Personally I only give homefield 1.5 nowadays. It is not like it used to be. Raider fans are not waiting for Bronco and Chief fans to go in the port o potty and duct taping the door shut and knocking it over. There is less mystique for homefield advantage anymore........but the one place there may be a little bit of a stage....maybe just a little bit of a mystique........is Lambeau, against #12. If I were Dan Campbell, I would make everyone watch that playoff game where the Pack muffed the punt late last year vs. San Fran, and get what they can out of it. I lost units on that game, and it still makes me mad to think about it. The way that game ended, and the series of crazy events which led to the Niners winning.......
If I was Matt LaFleur.......I would make the entire Pack team sit in the theater room themselves.......leave the cell phones in a box at the door........and watch it too. Twice.
This should be a great game. Playoff game 1 week early.
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The Bengals had that weird game against the Browns where they got smoked in prime time. Did not look at all like the team I expect to hang in there and possibly win tonight.
Same could be said about Lions with that Panthers game. One concerning thing, is the run D. Just recently. Pack can run it, and then #12 will make you pay for paying too much attention to it. They need a pass rush in this game. They cannot allow #12 to reset the pocket, etc, and get secondary move completions. I am really excited for this game. As a Pack fan and shareholder (secondary to the greatness of the Raiders of course)....I pull for them, and the Lions are my baby girl and have been so so sweet to my bankroll this season.
I 100% agree with Sac that this line is slightly too big. Personally I only give homefield 1.5 nowadays. It is not like it used to be. Raider fans are not waiting for Bronco and Chief fans to go in the port o potty and duct taping the door shut and knocking it over. There is less mystique for homefield advantage anymore........but the one place there may be a little bit of a stage....maybe just a little bit of a mystique........is Lambeau, against #12. If I were Dan Campbell, I would make everyone watch that playoff game where the Pack muffed the punt late last year vs. San Fran, and get what they can out of it. I lost units on that game, and it still makes me mad to think about it. The way that game ended, and the series of crazy events which led to the Niners winning.......
If I was Matt LaFleur.......I would make the entire Pack team sit in the theater room themselves.......leave the cell phones in a box at the door........and watch it too. Twice.
This should be a great game. Playoff game 1 week early.
Before hitting the hay last night, I was thinking the banker/lock of the day should be NO to 'Will Cy take the over in the Sunday Nighter'. Lo and behold....WTF. Chase O82.5 rec. yds.
I'm still pissed at that game....inside the red zone so many times and can't even score..WTF
Not to worry...I'll get my money back before the end of the season
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Quote Originally Posted by lbcake:
Before hitting the hay last night, I was thinking the banker/lock of the day should be NO to 'Will Cy take the over in the Sunday Nighter'. Lo and behold....WTF. Chase O82.5 rec. yds.
I'm still pissed at that game....inside the red zone so many times and can't even score..WTF
Not to worry...I'll get my money back before the end of the season
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