CD Newsletter Week 7

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Mr.Rodgers giving away free football tonight 

ABN--

Did you write this 3 years ago ?

@iConsciousness

They should quarantine him, if he is contagious... sucks for the 9ers though.

@undermysac

You think Pickens is excited for having Russ throwing him the ball, instead of Fields? All the Steelers receiving core, for that matter... I know it's just one game, but Fields ain't ever making those long shots, down field, like Russ.

I think A-a-ron INT should be an automatic bet, when they play a good defense, his numbers in 7 games: 10 TDs, 7 INTs.

@yaongingy

 You make it sound like Russ was dropping Dimes.

I.saw 3 50/50 balls that Russ threw to Pickens. And honestly, Pickens made 3 miracle catches. 

Russ did well. He managed the game. They ran a vanilla offense. The offense didn't look any different to me when Fieds started. 

Christ..I need both of these tonight. I'm begging. 

Jets D with Saleh:

#6 epa per play. #6 success rate

2 games without him:

#26 epa per play. #29 success rate

 Coaching lives matter

It was all right here for the taking. Should of just bet it immediately after writing it.

I don't care if it was Mike Tomlin or higher-ups made the Russ call but it certainly was the right one, at least for this game. The last time they put 37 on the board was a loss in week 11  2021.

The Steelers are 4 wins away from getting over their rsw total.

Tomlin is the man

Defense is very good for a long time...

Easy-ish

So them bookies make the Dodgers favorites, for the WS, based on what? The only thing I can think about is home field advantage, otherwise the Yankees look better, especially pitching wise, mainly starting pitching. I'd say hitting both teams are quite equal, the difference being Yankees have more power, at least on paper, because Judge hasn't provided much of anything with his bat, until now.

Based on this whole postseason, I'd say Cole is gonna be the key for the Yankees, IF he can provide strong outings they will win the WS. The Dodgers got to this WS relying heavily on the bullpen, they've won 2 games using solely their bullpen: game 4 in San Diego and last night game 6 in LA. I can see a similar outcome as in the Cleveland series, for the the Yankees, namely wearing down the Dodgers bullpen, as they did with the Guardians one. I'm not too optimistic about Cole though, he will be pitching on 10 days rest on Friday, and his stuff hasn't been encouraging, in his last 2 starts. The main problem with him is that when he misses, he gets absolutely destroyed, especially by HRs.

Btw, the media is gonna have a blast with this series, the amount of drivel they are gonna spew will be nauseating...

Interesting dynamic for the 1H of Chargers/Cardinals game.

Kyler Murray is the best 1H QB, by cpoe+epa composite rating. Herbert is #14.

Offensive epa per play, AZ #5, LAC #16

Defensive epa per play, AZ #29, LAC #1

The Chargers are #1 in dropback epa, and rush epa. And going up against the best 1H QB so far this year. But, the Cardinals have been #19 in rush epa offensively, and 25th in rush success rate.

So will the Cards be one dimensional tonight? Probably. Unless Murray can do it on his own in both departments. 

I wrote my initial thoughts on this game in the newsletter short n sweet. "I respect the Chargers defense, but want to know how they've done against mobile qb's"

I'm seeing 3 mobile qb's that they've played in Fields, Mahomes, and Nix. 1-2, giving up 17.66 ppg. Still pretty good on the defensive side.

Fields got sacked twice, 6 rushes for 6 yards, 1 rush td.

Mahomes got sacked 3 times, 5 rushes for 12 yards, no td's.

Nix got sacked twice, 6 rushes for 61 yards, no td's. 

Kyler Murray this year is averaging 8.7 yards per rush attempt, the highest in his career. 

Anyone have a good angle in this game?

Didn't lose anyone in my survivor pool so still stuck @ 13. went 12 and 16 for the week and could of been a lot worse but hockey and a Timely Ramirez HR @ 4-1 held me in there. Boys, it's going to hit 75 today here in S.W. Ontario. All I can say about tonight's games is they could of staggered them better. I see the prison bus was busy this weekend. 

@yaongingy

 Excellent   and the Yanks were able to hit Guardians pen.

Hello Woody--This is Aaron again. You know...Aaron Rodgers. We were close. Best buddies. Why aren't you taking my calls ? Anyway, you got my text from last week wrong. Since we are both students of history, I know it can be difficult keeping presidents names straight as a way of remembering who I want you to buy. You bought Adams; I wanted Jefferson, as in Justin Jefferson. Please make the call to the Vikings and get this done. Look at our schedule. You could win out with Zeke at QB ( Kidding, Wood Man ). This is our year !

P.S. Even though it was a mistake, please keep Adams after you buy Jefferson for me. It's not like he stinks or anything. He caught 3 of my passes last night. Thirty yards ! That's almost one-third of the football field. We can use him too. See you at the Super Bowl, Woody !!!!

Your friend,

Aaron

@yaongingy

 Leaves it til his last AB. First 3, 4 LOB. Not how I envisioned it, but a win is a win.

As for the Series, looks like a game by game exercise. Yanks at 2.20 anytime is an auto (IMO). Done.
And yes, price for outright is based on home field advan to LAD, nothing else. All of Japan will wager Blue.

@1129ken

 Haha 

I just saw a post game interview. Once again Rodgers was deflecting blame. Said that they came out flat in warm ups and he doesn't know why

@lbcake

 Thanks for trying to steer me away from Minnesota. I should of listened. I'm up .80 units thus far, would of been +2.80 if I didn't bet Minny 1H.

In hindsight that was a game to not bet either side. 

they were up 15-6....

The over in the Lions game was worth 

@undermysac

 You never have to thank me for anything.

Those matchups scream: watch and enjoy. So that's what I did. That baby could have gone either way.