CD Newsletter Week 9

Here we are.  Almost half the season gone.  Lets get to it.  

TNF 

Eagles at Texans  +13.5  ( 44 )

This one just might be a bit of a snoozer for Philly.  Heading into a bye and having to play on Thursday. Hurts already in the MVP conversation and rightfully so with Allen and even Geno Smith????   Sure, why not.  This might set up for a perfect Philly FH and Houston 2H play when Philly just coasts to a victory. I believe last week vs Pitt was the first 2H theyve covered all year.  Depending on the outcome of the FH I might be backing Houston in the 2H very big.  Houston's offense is just abysmal and Mills looks awful.  Wouldn't mind seeing a bit of Kyle Allen in this one.  We'll see.  Really not too much to talk about for this one as I can't lay almost 2 TD's with any team on the road especially in a non div game.  Will be on lookout for that 2H number.  

Colts at NE  -5.5  ( 39.5 )

Are folks in Indy clamoring for Matty Ice to come back already?  I know I am.  It won't matter.  This defense was exposed a bit vs Chicago who has a QB that can confuse them with his legs.  Im sure the game plan for Dead Eyes this week will be to run more but it won't matter.  My only concern is the line?  Only -5.5?  Would have expected this to be at least a TD.  Hell, it might be there by game time.  Mac is confirmed starter and Damien is back to split carries with Rhamondre.  Low total so expect a very ugly and quite frankly unwatchable game unless you live in Boston or Indy.  Pats ML will be in a ton of ML pars and teasers I can guarantee that.  No lean on this at the moment.  If you like the Pats grab it now as I only expect this line to move one way.

Bills at Jets  +13  ( 47.5 )

Bills on short week.  Took their foot off the gas in the 2H against the hapless Pack.  Another situation I'm not sure I can back.  Almost 2 TD faves OTR in division. Another Bucs Panthers situation???     Doubt it.   How much do the Jets already miss Breece?  The run game was non existent last week and Milf Hunter is a turnover machine.  Now the best defense in the league comes to town?  This will be another teaser piece id imagine. Bills are next level and the early shine on the Jets Jets Jets is already off the minute Hall went down.  I won't be touching this one in any capacity.  

Phins at Bears  +5  ( 44 )

Back to back road games for Miami in the NFC north.  Bears cleaning house and coming off a 49 point effort from Dallas. I said earlier I might take the TT for every team moving forward against the Bears and what better way to start than with this Miami offense.  That said, I'm still not sold on this Phins team doing much in January.  When the plays aren't scripted Tua looks a tad lost.  Arm still looks weak.  He has unbelievable playmakers that make him look better than he is.  On the other side of the ball, id like to see Herbert supplant Monty as the feature.  Hell, one more fumble might do it.  Even though last week was a blowout on paper it was actually a lot closer than it looked and the Bears are actually not that far away from being competitive.  Which makes the recent moves all the more perplexing.  But hey, Bears gonna Bear.  Must be frustrating to be a fan of that team for all these years.  ( sorry ODB and Sac )  Lean FG over and will def be on Phins TT over as long as its not 28.5

continued......

Vikings at Commandos  +3.5  ( 43.5 )

So, we get Kirk back in town against his former squad.  " You like that? "  Wash has turned a bit of a corner under Heineke.  He looks competent and doesn't turn the ball over which is what Ron wants.  Why they pushed for Wentz who is the polar opposite is beyond me?  Are the Vikings good?  they are 6-1 and running away with the division but outside of the week 1 blowout against GB they seem to be in tight games late or even trailing.  The games they lost last year by one score they are winning those games this year.  Which is the usual variance we see in this league.   They have a ton of weapons yet I still can't see this team doing anything in January either.  Vikings with a look ahead to Buffalo will want to get this one knowing thats prolly an L next week.  Still lean Skins plus the points. No play yet.

Packers at Lions  +3  ( 49 )

If Rodgers and this offense are ever going to get right and ride some momentum wave to turn their season around its this game.  If it doesn't happen Sunday, its over and they might as well see what they have in Love.  That won't happen, but you get it.  Problem with this offense is the obvious.  Lack of playmakers. Even that said, Rodgers in the past has been able to overcome that by great QB play.  Making guys like Richard Rogers and Mercedes Lewis and James Jones look like pro bowlers.  This season, he simply looks checked out.  So, this will be the litmus test to see if they come back to relevance or fade away.  Detroit on the other hand are about as healthy as theyve been all year. This feels like it will be a very competitive game early but Detroit always finds ways to lose it in the end.  I will most likely be on the Lions in the FH only.   With Pack for a 2H play.  Total feels a little high since the Pack have one of the best pass D's in the league.  

Chargers at Falcons  +3  ( 49.5 )

Chargers off a bye with 2 weeks to prepare and only have to lay 3 against the " division leading " Falcons?  Something smells pretty funky here. Although, this entire year has been funky.  Im not a huge futures guy, but I feel for anyone who took RSW unders on the likes of Seattle and Atlanta.  On paper, the "good" teams aren't good and the "bad" teams aren't bad.  But I digress.  On paper, this feels like an over game.  Chargers should be able to put up a ton of offense against the Falcons and it looks like on paper the Falcons should be able to reciprocate.  The side just feels way off and I would imagine the public will be slamming this line all week.  Would love to hear anyone elses thoughts on a side here because I got nothing.  

Raiders at Getty's  +1.5  ( 48 )

I think I've seen enough. Trevor Lawrence is a bust.  This front 4 for Vegas should have a nice day and I expect whatever the hell that was last week with their offense gets fixed here.  Every year, it seems, there is one or 2 WTF games and that was the Raiders WTF game last week.  We might actually get a nice Devante Receiving yards number to hammer as well.  Where the hell is Renfrow?  He was a beast last year as Carr's safety blanket and they are simply not utilizing him at all this year.   As for Jax, its nice to see Etienne get the confidence of the coaching staff and GM to trade away his compliment and he's making the most of it.   I apologize for not giving many leans or plays this early.  But, the slate looks very difficult this week.  Moving on.......

Continued. .......

Seadorks at Cardinals  -1.5  ( 50 )

Boy, what a one sided trade this Russ one turned out to be.  Geno looks incredible and this team is playing for each other while all subtly taking jabs at Russ.  Ya love to see it. Walker is a beast and Carroll has these guys believing.  Cards look way better with Nuke back than they did to start the year but still losing games. This looks like the final year they give KK a leash.  At 3-5 and bottom of the division looking at what SF is doing this is a must win or its over.  0-2 already in the division so 0-3 especially against a team theyve already lost to and sitting in 1st is a death sentence.  I think they finally put together a complete team effort and get one to salvage some hope for the season.

Rams at Bucs  -3  ( 42.5 )

Battle of the washed QB's here.  Both teams struggle running the football and it won't get any easier this week.  Both teams need a win like blood so this one should be a battle in the trenches.  If Cooper Kupp misses this game I have no idea who Stafford is going to throw the ball to.  If this was a noon start id pass on watching one second of it but since its somewhat prime time I guess ill tune it.  Heavy lean to the under.  Especially the FH under.  

SNF

Titans at Chiefs  -11.5 up to -12.5   ( 46.5 )

We all know Reid off a bye is a sure bet but the way Titans control clock with that freak back there its tough to lay that many points even with the Chiefs @ home. If this line somehow gets to 13.5 ill be forced to take a shot with Vrabel.   The Chiefs added a decent weapon in Toney and he's "all of the sudden" healthy.  Adding to an already potent offense.  The only problem with backing the Titans in this one is if they fall behind 14-0 early its over.  They don't have the offensive firepower to claw back in the game.  And, on the other side of the ball, there is nothing the Titans do on D that should slow down Mahomes.  Hell, the more I type and think about this one the more I'm starting to lean to laying the points      lol

MNF 

Ravens at Saints  +3  ( 48 )

Crab boy is healthy, yet they continue to roll with the Red Rifle mixed in with the Swiss army knife and its working.  Kamara, front in center of trade rumors yet continues to just put his head down and play.  Saints at home are always a tough out and back to back road games for Balty with a struggling offense with question marks at WR and TE has me leaning heavily to the Aints.  If they get Lattimore back for this one ill make this an official play.  Would have also set this total around 44 so that one has me scratching my head.  Lets see where it moves throughout the week.  

waiting on Bengals Panthers lines to come out...........lets discuss.

For me, its looking like a weekend full of chalk which is the opposite of what I prefer to bet on.  

Texans and titans could have trouble scoring unless their RBs have massive days...and if they fall behind its harder to run the ball...

Ind/ne low scoring?? Except ne been way higher scoring team than i expected ...seems like a lot of points for mac Jones to cover...

Waiting on weather in Chicago

Does public bet up lar/tb total thinking "oh Brady vs stafford"

Got 3 props in mind ill be waiting to see lines

Ravens in good spot to stack some wins, they know Red Rocket well and i would rather face him than the crab bandit.Long as they are focused on this game and not their bye they come back with Panthers @ home, visit the Getty's, back home for Denver then onto Pittsburg. All very winnable games that should have them in the drivers seat coming down the stretch.

Enjoy your take BD..well done. 

Bills/Jets without stud running back means it will be up to Zack to beat the Bills no way, no how.My feeling is Bills will wear them down and should cover.I rarely bet this early but DK has Bills - 12' i may grab that while i can.Need to see who Bills have on deck.

Finally a week with some interesting games.

I have no idea about the TV ratings, but I have to assume they are down for the month of October compared to last year. The last few weeks have seen as many boring match-ups as I can ever recall.

Nice job Big D

Thanks BigD

@undermysac

 Thanks Sac 

Thing about Pilly/Houston is surely overmatched but this is a situation on prime time and @ home where a team plays like it's their SB and gives all they got whereas the Eagles could be caught napping.At 14 i would consider it but will pass on watching it. 

Good job BigD 

I’m on Packers/Lions over 49

I’m thinking on putting a few units on 

Texans ML , +13.5 

nice work, d

i heard that the reasoning for matt ryan's benching was because they insisted on needing a more mobile quarterback. so they bring in ehlinger, and then have zero designed run plays for him. lol. colts just fired the oc. you know who's next...

@OlDirtyBaztid

 Exactly.  Makes no sense unless you’ve been a colts fan for the last 5-7 years then it makes perfect sense.  Can’t wait to see Sam’s rushing props 

@undermysac

 Dont look now but your pal leads the nfl in qbr. 

T.Jed/KC do they put 9 or 10 in the box to stop Henry and if so can Tanny do just enough to keep Maholmes off the field and get the cover.I think i may play them. 

Nice Job D

Hockenson to vikings

Claypool to bears

Bears need to get an OL or 2 for fields in the draft

Chubb to the phins.   No not that Chubb 

Great job BigD. I've found historically that the best time to start playing the chalk is right at the mid season point and we are here. 

One from the oddsmaker : "Wiseguys crushed the Bucs on the lookahead line of pick 'em w/LAR. We re-opened the line Tampa -3 and there's been a bit of buyback and settled at 2.5. I think the public will continue to play the Rams but I don't see us budging off this number. The Bucs are on the cusp of going on a run, I don't see that with LA."

@Getty3

 Sharps got smashed betting Tampa last couple weeks. It may be a Martingale 

Who?

They were definitely on them last week vs. the Shrimp 

@undermysac

Your team gave up a 2nd rounder for Claypool?

Chase fucking Claypool?

Calvin Ridley to the Jags ... that is interesting.

Can't wait to hear whats the Getty's had to give up.

I don't play the NBA but I know BigD does. Heard this on the radio this morning. The NJ Nets are 3-30 ATS as a home favorite in their last 33 games as such.