2024 US Election Betting Hub

was there an over under on how many times raskin would say "ar15" at the hearings today ? 7-22-24    

57% of Americans think Trump should drop out of the presidential race.  The breakdown:

86% of DEMS

51% of INDS

26% of REPS

Only 21% of Americans think Trump is honest and just 38% think he is capable of handling a crisis.

https://buckscountybeacon.com/2024/07/ap-norc-poll-about-60-percent-of-americans-want-trump-to-withdraw-from-presidential-race

With Biden out, Trump becomes the old geezer with cognitive decline, things he's been criticizing about Biden.  He's the feeble felon running against a sharp prosecutor who'd probably slaughter Trump in a debate, assuming he has the courage to face her.

This AP-NORC poll has been conducted from July 11-15, 2024 which was before VP Harris has become the Democratic nominee. Chances are, more than 57% of Americans think Trump should drop out of this presidential race.  

From my Comment #35 which I posted on July 4th:

"The electoral-vote.com website has Trump ahead 310-205 with two states (WI and VA) currently tied. It shows Trump currently flipping 7 states - AZ GA ME MI NV NH & PA."

Trump had a combined 30.0% advantage over either Biden or Harris as the nominee.  Currently his lead has plummeted to just 8.0%.

The Election Betting Odds website now gives Trump just a 278-260 Electoral College lead.  His reprehensible comments to the National Association of Black Journalists did him no favors.

Trump's shrinking lead is now down to 5.1% at Electoral Betting Odds.

EBO's current DEM VP odds:

Shapiro  71.6%

Beshear  12.3%

Kelly  7.5%

Walz  5.2%

Walz

Gov. Josh Shapiro gets 55% job approval rating, and 63% approval rating from the swing voters*.

*What a Josh Shapiro vice presidential pick would mean to the Democratic ticket this fall

Presidential winners of 19 electoral votes from the State of Pennsylvania have won ten out the last twelve US presidential elections, according to the U.S. News & World Report.

The bettors have widened Trump's lead to 6.6%, probably due to the sagging stock market.

Walz now had a lead of 14.8% over Shapiro.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

*******

The latest SurveyUSA poll has Harris up by 3%.

https://politicalwire.com/2024/08/05/kamala-harris-leads-in-another-national-poll/

Shapiro has closed the gap.  He now trails by just 3.9%.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

@DogbiteWilliams

Walz

Minnesota Governor Walz is the winner. 

The bettors are saying that Walz is a positive choice.  Trump's edge has shriveled all the way down to 1% at Election Betting Odds.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Being a former school teacher, football coach, US Congressman, military veteran, and current governor, Walz presents himself with an very impressive resume so to speak.      

I like Walz, a folksy liberal who still appeals to blue-collar whites.  He represented a mostly rural district while in the House, one of the VERY few Democrats able to accomplish that.

Harris has grabbed a 2.3% lead at Election Betting Odds.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

I still think the betting markets are underestimating her.

Vance Is Getting Less Popular by the Week

https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Aug08-3.html

All 6 polls show Vance's popularity diminishing.  Vance is now as unpopular as Trump.

Trump sure can pick 'em.   /s

Harris is now leading Trump by 7.8% at Election Betting Odds.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

It appears that US presidential election is all about the electoral college, battleground states dictate the winners. Which candidate wins the battlegrounds wins the presidency, seemly Harris-Walz ticket has been flipping Trump-Vance in many crucial battleground states currently.  

AZ has moved from Even to Harris by 3%.  NC has moved from Barely GOP to Even.  Electoral Vote now shows Harris 287, Trump 235, Even 16.

https://www.electoral-vote.com/

Trump is now leading Harris by only 6% in TX and only 5% in FL.  If one or both flip by election day Trump will be slaughtered nationally, taking many down-ballot Republicans with him.

The Florida Amendment 4, Right to Abortion Initiative (2024), is on the November 5 ballot. Florida women might come out strong and give GOP a run for their money on this November. Dems have taken the upper hand of elections after super GOP majority Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade.

Indeed, anti-abortion groups have lost every abortion initiative ballots since overturning Roe v. Wade.*

*NBC News 

Harris is now leading Trump by 9.8% at Election Betting Odds.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Trump bump - Harris' edge has shrunk to 8.0%.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Harris' lead has shriveled even further to 6.8%.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

The latest Emerson College poll of PA has Trump up by 2% in the state.  That might explain the recent money on Trump.

The bettors continue to put money on Trump.  Harris' lead is down to 5.1%.  Oddly enough, the bets on individual states give Harris a 281-257 Electoral College edge.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Some conservatives must be smiling - Harris' lead has plunged to just 1.1% at Election Betting Odds.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

The reason for the money move is that the latest poll at Electoral Vote shows PA flipping to Trump.

https://www.electoral-vote.com/

Liberals lament - Trump now has a lead of 0.3% at Election Betting Odds.  EBO has Trump ahead 287-251 in the Electoral College.

https://electionbettingodds.com/