2024 US Election Betting Hub

At bet365, Harris is favored (1.25) to win the popular vote over Trump (3.75).

@thirdperson

The Democrats deserve to be heavy favorites to win the popular vote this year.  After 3 huge popular vote margins for the REPs in 1980, 1984 and 1988, here are the DEM popular vote margins in millions since then:

1992   5.8

1996   8.2

2000   0.5  Babushka won thanks to a Supreme Court with one extra conservative vote.  Two Republican justices, John Paul Stevens and David Souter, dissented because they thought that Gore had a better legal case than Babushka.

2004   (3.0) 

2008   9.5

2012   5.0

2016   2.9  Trump won by narrow margins in WI, MI and PA.

2020   7.1  Biden won by narrow margins in WI, MI and PA.

With some rounding that is about 36 million votes cumulatively, and that was before Dobbs.

Currently Trump and Harris are both -110 at Heritage.

Mark Hulbert, a columnist, has an interesting article on the subject of this presidential election. 

@Europa

I am not a subscriber, but I am encouraged by that 64% figure.  However, many years have featured big stock market declines in September and/or October.  Plenty can change, but Harris should be favored even if Election Betting Odds currently has Trump with an edge of 1.7%

At EBO Harris has regained the lead which is currently 1.7%.  I do not know how long any convention bounce will last.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

The 538 forecaster has Harris winning 58 of their simulations, Trump 41 and 1 ending 269-269 which would result in a Trump victory based on the GOP controlling more House delegations.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

Harris around pick 'em has positive EV.

I don’t vote.  Never voted in my life. However I love that trump is doing all these podcasts Gen X and Millennials.  Goes to UFC fights. Relates with the younger generation.  I don’t hear anything about Kamala. They trying to prop her up to be so post she is not.  

Trump is going to win easily.  Then Tulsi is 2028

Once again the latest money has been placed on Trump; he currently leads Harris by 1.1% at EBO.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Trump currently -114 at Pinnacle 

I'm pounding it. $1,140 to win $1,000.  May add more as election day draws closee

Wish I got in when Trump was +104 but I thought I may get better odds after the DNC bounce for Harris

Once the debates start it's over.  Most Americans are sensible people.  Even though many do not like Trump, many hate socialism even more.  Price controls?? That's right outta the Soviet Union/Cuba/North Korea communist playbooks.  How does she defend the border problem? Trump is going to demolish her on that and her policies just don't align with the majority of Americans.  Her increase in the polls is from the DNC bounce and the fact she hadn't given a proper interview (last night CNN softball interview doesn't count)

I see Trump -150 to -200 by election day

Electoral Vote currently has Harris 292 - Trump 230 with NC tied, and that is before Trump's outrageous flip-flop on abortion and his disgraceful and disgusting behavior at Arlington National Cemetery.

https://www.electoral-vote.com/

There has been a slight line move at Heritage.  Now Harris is -110 and Trump is -105.  Haley is +2700.

@DogbiteWilliams

 Is that for popular vote or winning the Presidency? Because line at Pinny is now -118 for trump and I doubt my $1K bet moved the line that much.

Anyways, polls don't mean Jack all.  I remember in 2016 Hillary was a foregone conclusion based on exit polls and look what happened?   I think 2020 happened due to a lot of ballot harvesting.  Just look at how many people cast ballots compared to previous years? 

Anyways at the end of the day I think Trump wins.  Kamala is just too unpalatable for the average joe

Winning the Presidency.

Historian predicts Harris will win.  He has correctly predicted 9 out of the last 10 Presidential elections.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/06/politics/video/allan-lichtman-trump-harris-prediction-lcl-digvid

Heritage lines as of 2024-09-06

Senate Control:

GOP   -275

DEM   +215

House Control:

DEM   -190

GOP   +145

If they both flip, the next President will be hamstrung either way.

Trump has the bettors moving his direction at EBO; his current lead is 3.8%, the biggest I have noticed.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Trump's odds on Pinnacle has moved to -131. 
Today and tomorrow is the last chance to make some money at good odds.  After the debate, I expect Trumps odds to win the Presidency to jump to -150/175 range.

Trump's lead has climbed to 4.6% at EBO.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

@DogbiteWilliams

As of now, there are a couple of offshore books list Trump -125/-120 vs Harris +105/Even. Trump's odds could juice up as day progresses till this early November. I can recall that Trump was -175 vs Biden +150 in the early November 2020 just few days before the presidential election. 

Current Pinny odds

Trump -129

Kamala +107

Last chance brigade at decent odds for Trump.  You can also Arb this by taking Trump now and the Harris after the debate and closed to the election at big + odds.  

Since she was named Nominee she had ONE softball interview on CNN where she needed Walz with her to get through it.  There has been calls where you can clearly hear Kamala turning pages on her notes.  Trump has had multiple debates going back to 2016 with Hillary and 2020 with Biden plus the debacle debate with Biden in July.  Harris has had ONE debate the VP debate with Pence who did next to nothing.  In other words, Trump has been there before, he has the experience Kamala doesn't .  I can't see any way that Kamal is going to be able defend Bidens poor record and win this debate tonight.  Polls are already shifting back into Trump's favor.

I did not watch the debate (even if Trump were a liberal, I'd still hate his voice), but the bettors at EBO have rendered their judgment.  Yesterday Trump led by 4.6% (see Comment #94), but now Harris is leading by 4.6%.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

I think the fact that Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala had a bigger effect than the debate did to swing the pendulum.  With regards to the debate, I will admit Kamala did better than expected but I thought Trump held his own.  It was interesting that right after the debate, Kamala asked for another one.  Will see if it takes place. 

Anyways, I admit I was wrong in my prediction, Trump is + money now.

That was gracious of you.  Thanks.

Some of the Harris post-debate enthusiasm of the bettors has waned.  Her lead has narrowed to just 3.3% at EBO.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

That was gracious of you.  Thanks.

Some of the Harris post-debate enthusiasm of the bettors has waned.  Her lead has narrowed to just 3.3% at EBO.

https://electionbettingodds.com/