2024 US Election Betting Hub

Thats reflected in the odds now too.  Trump now -100 (EV) and Harris -125.  Trump was +112 post debate.

Dadgum double post that I can't delete.  Naturally this website can't allow deletions or hordes of bad picks would disappear.

Harris has stretched her lead to 5.3%.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Harris now has a whopping lead of 7.6% at EBO.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Since 1980, Challam county in Washington state has been the most reliable bellweather county in picking the winners of US presidential elections.  Current polls favor Harris. 

Harris's lead has climbed to 8.9% at EBO.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Harris' chance of victory is currently 60% at Race to the WH.

https://www.racetothewh.com/president/2024

The Interactive Trend Line shows her making mostly steady progress since early August.

Bet365 presidential odds

One week after Kamala handed trump a humiliating beatdown on the debate stage - watched worldwide by nearly 100 MILLION (includes TV, online and streaming) - the odds of Kamala Harris defeating the racist/fraud/rapist/convicted felon has risen at Bet365 from -110 prior to the beatdown, up to -138 (Sept 18)

Her odds of winning the popular vote have risen from -350 to -500

**NOTE: just like the stock markets, we know from past experience that these numbers will bounce up and down some over the coming weeks. They typicall do! We will have a much more clear view in the final days of October.

I expect these odds/poll-numbers to moderate downward some, but likely to still stay a near coin-flip (with Harris holding a thin edge)

I expect these odds/poll-numbers to moderate downward some

@fubah2

Agree, Trump bettors are likely to pull the Harris odds downward as days progress. I guess, there are more Trump bettors than Harris bettors.   

Fubah2 and Europa were both correct; Harris' lead has dropped to 7.5% at EBO.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

@DogbiteWilliams

According to a 2022 report, 66.1% of online gamblers were men--AI Overview, per Google search. And online gamblers are more likely to be men and white.

Men are more likely to prefer Trump (52%) than Harris (46%), A majority of White voters (56%) support Trump.*

*https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/harris-trump-and-the-state-of-the-2024-presidential-race/

Most sharp Covers posters would have assumed that, but thanks Europa for posting the corroborating stats.

Money must have been pouring in on Trump; now he is only down 4.2% at EBO.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

I hope it's not because of his Haitian hate-mongering.  It should be the results of two recent polls.  Previously Electoral Vote had AZ and GA rated even; now Trump leads by 2% in both.  However Trump's lead is a mere 3% in FL; if Harris flips that Trump is probably hopeless.

https://www.electoral-vote.com/#item-7

@DogbiteWilliams

There are 40 days left until the election day. As more wagering money is coming for Trump, his odds might keep trending up. I will not be surprised to see that Trump is favored just few days before Nov. 5.  

Take this article with a grain on salt:

Harris Holds Small Leads Across the Swing States

https://politicalwire.com/2024/09/26/harris-holds-small-leads-across-the-swing-states/

Bettors beware:  pollster Morning Consult is ranked only #107th by 538.com.

Heritage lines as of 2024-09-28:

Harris -125

Trump +105

The line has been moving on the favorite.  Bettors have been taking Harris lately.

Yes.  It was -125 HARRIS at Bet365 couple days ago, dipped to -110, and today back up to -125.

This might well change down to even odds Tuesday evening or Wednesday. 

Atlas is not a highly ranked poll, but shows chilling results vastly different than most i've seen

https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1840183887458177530

Poly market has been showing Pennsylvania just split in half. Except when it is a tie, at 50-50, they give 1% to the candidate who has more dollars, so it says 51% to 50% (which is illogical)

https://polymarket.com/event/pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner/will-a-republican-win-pennsylvania-presidential-election?tid=1727637235100

Looks like Kamala is reaching voters, gaining momentum in battleground states--let's hope--cannot afford a second time round with the Manhattan Swindler.

@MizuNoYoNiNaru

Both Electoral Vote and 538 have Harris up by 1% which is obviously too close to call, especially considering that there is still more than one month until Election Day.  538's graph shows that Harris is making NO progress in PA despite all the horrifying and disgusting things Trump has said or tweeted lately.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Harris now leads by just 3.2% at EBO.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Trafalgar..."specializes in finding the hidden republican voters not reached by most polls..." has Trump leading in Mich, Wisc, Pa, Georgia, Ariz and Nevada.

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org

I can't believe American voters will fall for this 'Dirty Harry' impersonation....staying positive....

No update on polymarkets--50% to 49% now for the last several days.

@MizuNoYoNiNaru

Yikes!  On the surface that seems scary, but Trafalgar is definitely a Republican-skewed pollster.

"If President Trump pieces together an Electoral College win on Tuesday, at least one pollster — and perhaps only one — will be able to say, “I told you so.” That person is Robert Cahaly, whose Trafalgar Group this year has released a consistent stream of battleground-state polls showing the president highly competitive against Joseph R. Biden Jr., and often out ahead, in states where most other pollsters have shown a steady Biden lead. …

Amid a crush of pre-election media coverage seeking his theory of the case — it drove more than 1.5 million clicks to Trafalgar’s site on Monday, he said — the big question seems to be: Is it possible to believe a guy whose polls consistently give Mr. Trump just enough support for a narrow lead in most swing states, and who refuses to reveal much of anything about how he gets his data?

Traf is just a biased outfit that asks pointed questions to get responses they want to hear. Got a modicum of attention for correctly predicting Trump in 2016 but that in an of itself should give you warning. Of course, picked Trump incorrectly in 2020 and probably 2024."

This post is from jester32 at the FiveThirtyEight Reddit.  There may be some validity to the comment because it has garnered 60 upvotes in the last two months.

https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1eod1z6/whats_the_deal_with_pollsters_like/

Per Wikipedia, Robert Cahaly was previously a political consultant for Republican Party candidates.

Per 538, Trafalgar Group is ranked #279.  They don't get more unreliable.

Harris' lead has shriveled even further.  It is now just 1.9%.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Almost as bad is the solid right leaning  Rasmussen Reports