Canadian Election betting thread

Not sure if any other books have this or not, but Pinny has odds for the Canadian election that is happening on April 28.  Made a killing with Trump on the US election, going to try to make some with ours.

Current odds

Liberals -117

Conservatives -102

As much as it hurts me to say this as I am a conservative member and support Pierre 100% and am volunteering for him in my riding, if I am being honest with myself, Liberals at -117 is an absolute gift.  The whole Trump tariffs on Canada thing has really screwed over the PC's.  If you look at Polymarket, what was once a massive lead for the PC's, which right before Trudope resigned, they were up a whopping 26 points.  Now all the polls including Polymarket has the Liberals winning the most seats and its only growing.  The polls may be misleading but Polymarket isn't and seeing the mood in Canada right now, the path for Pierre and the PC's to win is rapidly dwindling. 

I am throwing a dime on the Liberals here at -117 for now as I think this number is only going to go up and if I am right then I could easily hedge and make a profit.  Otherwise when the Liberals win AGAIN (unbelievable to think after what they did to this country) at least I can wipe my tears with some cash.

CBC estimates 66% probability of liberal majority government and 90% probability of winning the most seats.  If liberals and conservatives don't win enough seats in house of commons, bloc quebeque or NDP may join liberal to form a minority government.

@thirdperson

 One of the problems for Pierre and the Conservatives is that previous NDP supporters are moving their support over to the Liberals.  If you look back on history the reason Harper won majority governments back in the day was because the NDP took away enough seats from the Liberals that ensured the left split the vote and the Cons were able to win majorities.  That's not happening this time around. 

Anyways, Liberals to win most seats has gone up to -129

Interesting

Trump just posted that he had a great call with Prime Minister Carney saying it was "extremely productive" and that they will meet after the election to work on elements of politics, business and other factors that will be great for both US and Canada.  Couple takes

He called Carney Prime Minister and not Governor showing that the problem for Trump was clearly Trudope.  He also said they would meet right after the election meaning he basically sees Carney and the Libs winning.  Thirdly it shows that Trump is willing to work with Carney unlike he did with Trudope.  The Liberals and the CBC are going to use this to show that Carney as PM will get things straightened out.

This could be the nail in the coffin for Pierre and the Cons

It will be very interesting if the ‘talk’ with Trump helps in the long run or not.

Right now the ‘trade war’ with the USA is getting all of the media blitz.

Carney has done a good job of looking like he can work with Trump on this issue.

So, a portion of the people that care about that and believe it will vote for him.

But I think a large portion of that group are already steadfast for the Liberals.

I think Poilievre should be doing more to present the same willingness to work with Trump.

But he should also be explaining how it got to this point with the USA and why Trump wants to adjust it to a more equilibrium for both countries.

The imbalance in trade is now at a 2 decade high.

The last I saw for example, all 10 provinces had the USA as their largest trade partner — not even other provinces.

Poilievre has to articulate the reasons Trump felt the tariffs were warranted and how he can alleviate those concerns and prevent a furthering of a ‘trade war’.

But the overwhelming concerns for the majority of the citizens is costs, and lack of housing.

Poilievre has got to be on more outlets talking about what he can do to address those two concerns.  Carney saying he will lower the tax rate on the bottom bracket by 1% is not enough.

But Poilievre has stated he will drop the rate on the lowest bracket by 2.25%.  That is not enough of a distinction between the two to move voters.  In theory it would save that bracket double what Carney’s plan would save.  But that is not addressing the larger issues with the costs and the housing that everyone is feeling.

Of course, every little bit helps folks.  But that number itself will not sway enough voters.

Poilievre has to be more vocal about his overall plan to address this issues and he needs to be going everywhere to do it.  Much like Trump did by going and talking to every media outlet that would have him, whether they disagreed with him or not.  Trump also went on every podcast that mattered.

Poilievre needs to do something like that.  Even if he has to to go on USA podcasts to get his message out — simply because they reach a vast and varied audience in Canada as well.

There has been a huge pendulum swing in a lot of areas of the world — Latin America, Australia, and Western Europe.

Canada has an opportunity to get on board with that swing.  They were looking very good for a while.  But just to say the tariffs are going to hurt the USA and that you will lower the tax rate in the lowest bracket a bit is not nearly enough that has to be harped on.

Even Teneycke has changed his mind and say the winds are against Poilievre now.

The SUN had a nice art ole a couple of weeks ago about some of the reason he still had a good chance.  Mostly, about the money behind him and the great team he has.  But one issue was they say he is better on his feet than Carney.  Which is true, just like it was with Trump and Biden.  BUT he absolutely has to be out and showing that he is by going on every show possible.

Another issue is that Carney is still tied to Trudeau from way back.  Poilievre has to be able to tie him down to Trudea as much as possible.  Just as Trump did with Harris to Biden.

The last issue is the issue of change.  Poilievre represents change and he has to get out everywhere and point that out and why it is the way forward.

With the disparity in disposable income compared the USA these things have to be pointed out.  For example:  The average after-tax salary is enough to cover living expenses for 1.4 months in Canada compared to 1.8 months in the United States.

But there is now a big concern that he may be losing ground too fast to make up.

He needs to get out in from of this with such a short time left to get his message across and explain why his change is better for the country instead of the same old tired nonsense that has not worked.

Liberals to win most seats is now up to -151 on Pinny

@Raiders22

 Agree with you on all those points.  Pierre needs to come out more and show he can also work with Trump.  I also think the comment Trump made about Pierre in that interview where he said he didn't know the guy didn't help.  And if course the big advantage the Liberals have is the mainstream legacy media.  CBC and CTV are constantly promoting the Liberals.  Especially CBC they are as biased as they come.  Unlike the US where you have Rogan and PBD and others we don't have the same political commentators that have a Conservative mindset.  Apart from Jordan Peterson who else do we have?  Mistersunshinebaby, the plebe reporter and Northern Perspective are good but they don't have the following that US podcasters have which means most of Canadians still get their news and their views by the mainstream liberal media which makes it hard for any conservative to get their message across.  I mean look at how CBC and CTV keep harping on about Pierres lack of security clearance when in my view Carney unwilling to disclose his financial situation and potential conflicts of interest should be a much bigger issue.  Also not one word from the media regarding the fact there are multiple pictures of Carney hanging around Ghislaine Maxwell.  To me that should be much more concerning to Canadians than Pierre not get security clearance.

Carney has too much baggage and that is coupled with the fact that he is a long time Trudeau advisor.  
Trump was saying that because Poilievre came out and started saying things against Trump.  
That is the wrong way to sway voters.  Trudeau and Carney already do that enough.  He cannot outdo them on this — even if it would convince voters. 
Yes, CBC is awful and that is why I say he has to use other outlets.  Look at the Sun’s coverage and the nightly news.  He will never get his message out on them.  
That is why I say he may have to go on some of the USA networks and podcasts.  They have a lot of Canadian viewership, of a great variety. 
He did sit down with Peterson a couple of months ago.  It was a good interview.  Just because Peterson does a good interview and lets folks talk and he asks insightful questions and is Canadian.  
But I do not think that is the best format for him to go on.  I mean it helps.  But I think a large part of that viewership is likely in Poilievre’s camp already.  
He does need to energize his base to get out of course.  
However, he certainly needs to convince many more potential middle of the road voters that might be swayed.  
Just saying Trudeau was bad and you will do better is not enough.  
Make a clear delineation and demonstrate how it will help the country on the two main issues they care about:  costs and housing.  The things like immigration, tariffs, and energy simply do not matter as much to folks as being able to afford everyday things and an affordable place to live.  

@Raiders22

 Patrick Bet David of the PBD podcast sent an invitation to Pierre to appear on his podcast and he declined.  On the other hand Max went on PBD as well as Alex Jones and a couple others and I applaud him for that.  Because of that the PPC is going to get some people on board although funny enough the best thing for Max would be for Pierre and the PCs to lose I think if that happens your going to see a lot of Cons go over to PPC because I can't see Pierre staying on as leader if they lose when they had a sure win in the bag a couple months ago and the PCs will likely put a another O'Toole like leader in again while they wait for what will inevitably be Doug Ford as leader sometime in the future 

Also as an aside, should the Liberals win again I am hearing that Alberta is going to go full on separatist mode.  They have had enough of being controlled by Quebec and Ontario.  It's insane that our election is basically decided when the polls close in Ontario which basically negates the western provinces.  .  

Updated odds on Pinny now has the Liberals a whopping -179 to win most seats.  So glad I bet at -117 now there is a nice hedge opportunity but I'm staying pat for now.  It's going to come down to the debates and I think Pierre has to have a Brian Mulroney home run moment for the Cons to have any shot at winning.

The interesting thing is that Pierre is packing his rallies there are lineups to get in to them meanwhile not the same turnout for Carney so that could be a glimmer of hope

@icemantbi

   Yes, I heard PBD say that. 
Poilievre should go on his show for sure.  PBD even said the same thing about DeSantis before he eventually went on it.  
   Even going on Rogan or others like that would help, just because of the audience reach. 
Yes, my brother-in-law lives in Calgary and says a lot of the folks out there are very disillusioned with how things are antithetical to what they want coming out of Ottawa. 
   But it is the same as it is in the USA where the 2-3-4 large metro areas carry the country.  
   But if Alberta declared a UDI to separate it would have to be okayed by Canada as well.  They pretty much decided some time back with Quebec that this would not be allowed. 
   Even if it were. What would you do with the ones that would still be Canadian loyalists.  You do not want to have little segments of non-separatists spread throughout the province — akin to the Cree in Quebec.  
   Ottawa at some point has to take the western province’s concerns into account.  For instance, the imbalance with Alberta’s representation versus their contribution to the country’s GDP.

But it will be very interesting to see if Poilievre can win if he could do anything to alleviate the concerns out there.  

@Raiders22

 What they need to do to even things out is reform the senate.  Make it elected and make it like the US where you have two senators from each province that way the western provinces have as much representation as the Ontario and Quebec then they can veto any laws that are not in the best interest of Alberta and put a check on the House of Commons where most representation is from Quebec and Ontario. 

Updated odds

Liberals -198, Cons +162

Looks like Canada has escaped these reciprocal tariffs.  Expect the liberal left CBC and other Canadian media to make out Carney as the hero based on the recent phone call with Trump

Based on the odds, and based on today's news... its pretty much game over for Pierre and the Cons

Updated election odds as of now

Liberals -210

Cons +171

Liberal odds  continue to drop crossing the -200 threshold.  I heard a rumor that Pierre is going on Rogan and I hope for his sake and our country's sake it's true because he needs to do something to switch things around or else it's going to be another 4 years of misery.  

Those odds are very bad for the Cons.  On the plus side my bet at -117 looks like a great value play

Updated election odds from Pinny

Liberals -295

Cons +235

A Toronto Star article came out yesterday suggesting that the lead for the Liberals is narrowing and the Conservatives are gaining ground.  However, it seems that was one poll and if that's the truth the betting market is not reflecting that at all as the odds continue to drop for the Liberals.  Tonight I am going to a Polievre rally so I will see for myself the kind of turnout we receive, which I have heard from other rallies they are getting huge turnouts.  Another thing I am noticing which is concerning for the Conservatives is that, as a volunteer on sign duty, I have only put up a handful of signs since this weekend.  Years ago, when I was a Liberal (back in the Chretien years) I was putting up dozens of signs a day.

Canada should abolish powerless senate which serves just to review and delay legislation.  Overall, Canada is ranked among the best governed countries.  Generally, best governed countries tend to have parliamentary governments.  However US has a failing democracy because of flaws such as undemocratic electoral college.  In US senate, states with small populations are over represented while states with big populations are under represented.

Went to the rally last night.  Place was packed, thankfully I got there early so got a spot I heard many who got their later could not get in.

You would think with these turnouts we are getting that we would be ahead in the polls.  A few of the people I talked to believe the polls are wrong or are being manipulated by China.  But one thing I did notice.  Out of the roughly 4,000 or so who was at the rally I think I could count on one hand the amount of people from India or Pakistan or other foreigners.  In other words, it was almost all white people.  And then I realized just WHY we are down in the polls and are going to lose.  The mass immigration the Liberals have done over the last 9 years ensures they have a sold base that will vote LIBERAL no matter what.  The LIBERAL government brought them all in with barely any kind of background checks, and then these folks are having their families brought over etc.  So that solid base is what is going to decide the election.

An Angus Reid poll that came out yesterday suggests that 30% of Albertans want to separate from Canada should the Liberals win a 4th term.  No surprise there,

@icemantbi

 Yessir.  That is a huge problem in Europe now as well.  
You can see it just in England, for example.  Besides London there are several mayors now that show the influence.  
The issue is that people will vote their best interest.  
Even though they might align more with the values of the Conservatives, the Liberals have a much more relaxed immigration view.  This may override the other views because that makes it easier to get family and friends over. 
But I think the polls are out of whack.  But it is hard to say until the turnout shows up.  

@Raiders22

 Well, Carney is for the Century Initiative which advocates bringing our population up to 100 million.  Obviously, it would be immigrants from third world because our young couples can't afford kids and a house at the moment so our birth rate has declined to extremely low numbers.  That is one difference that Carney hasn't copied from Pierre is that Pierre is going to lower and cap immigration which needs to be done as our infrastructure can't take in all these immigrants.

As far as the polls, who knows really can't trust polls these days but I trust the betting market and Liberals are currently -285 to win most seats, Polymarket has Carney at 73% chance of becoming next prime minister that basically coincides with the polling numbers

@icemantbi

 And it will only exacerbate the housing problem short term.  
You can make a case that it ‘forces’ jobs into the construction area.  But is it worth it longterm. 
Yes, the birth rate is a HUGE concern everywhere.  It is only getting worse also.