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Presidential Election

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Posted: #876
-300 now on 5dimes.
 
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Posted: #877
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

Ever since the breaking news of FBI is reopening HRC's email investigation, the odds of HRC have been tumbling to -485 from -600.

It has never been out of surprises in this campaign, perhaps even after Nov. 08.   

Clinton supporters should not be worried.
With the 100's of millions that the Clintons made by selling access to prominent US politicians, they can afford to but their way out of this, just as they have done for the last 30 years 
bigreds daddy
 
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Posted: #878
Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:


Clinton supporters should not be worried.
With the 100's of millions that the Clintons made by selling access to prominent US politicians, they can afford to but their way out of this, just as they have done for the last 30 years 

Game is not over yet, i have my bets on HRC. But win or lose, it's a gamble for me. If Trump should get elected, i take my loss and congrats it to you. 

  
 
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Posted: #879
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:


Game is not over yet, i have my bets on HRC. But win or lose, it's a gamble for me. If Trump should get elected, i take my loss and congrats it to you. 

  

Well said 
bigreds daddy
 
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Posted: #880
my bets are in CO and VA.  they seem pretty safe. 

if trump wins and any of you guys bet at the right time, i.e. +350 or better, then
 
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Posted: #881
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

With the candidates pretty clear as of last night....  I thought I would post about the election.  My biggest bet of my lifetime was on Obama in 2008, as posted here at covers - and I have been on the right side the last 4 elections.

I am going to make this simple.  I always go back to math.  Sure if you watch the CNNs or Fox News of the world-  you will hear really anything you want to hear.  But there is one simple truth that gets drowned out in all the noise:

The US voting demographic has changed drastically in the last 20 years.

If you are a Republican running for President in 2016, you start a 100 yard dash 200 yards from the finish line.  Democrats start with a 242-180 electorate lead before the race even starts because of states who are already decided.  You only need 270 to win.  These states are Florida, Ohio, Virginia, NC, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and NH.  You might argue Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are on that list too, although that is probably a stretch.

There are only a handful of states that decide elections - and since the Dem is only 28 electoral votes away from winning - it means that the Dem could win Florida alone out of all of the swing states and still win the election.

The math just isnt there for Trump.  He has to almost clean sweep the swing states - which is a bigger longshot than his current betting odds suggest.

In the coming months you will hear polls - and you will hear opinions.  There is only one thing that matters - can Trump win the states listed above?  Can he win almost all of them?

I missed the boat several times with Clinton at better odds.  And laying close to -300 now doesnt excite me either - but I still think she should be about -800 or so.

Don't get sucked in to betting on Trump.  There is a definite political movement there - but the math just isnt there.

GL


Serenity Now, Serenity Now
 
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Posted: #882
There is one legitimate reason why wagering on HRC is not "free money" as one particular knucklehead classified his bets.

This person focused too much on Trump, but failed to recognize the depth of Clintons corruptness. Some of this is being brought to light now, and for all we know there is still much more to come between now and Nov 8th. 

I am still of the opinion that she will soon be referred to as Madam President C*nt, but the possibility of that not happening are real, and any bets on her are definitely not "free money" 
bigreds daddy
 
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Posted: #883
who said "free money"  your nemesis DL?
 
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Posted: #884
Nope, it was my original nemesis.
The guy who I hit with that sneaky uppercut yesterday 

For the record, Cheswick was never a nemesis, more like a gnat on a horses arse. 
Just kind of there, kind of annoying, yet still very insignificant.

How much do you think it is killing him to not be able to come in here and ask me why I'm all emotional? 
bigreds daddy
 
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Posted: #885
Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:

Nope, it was my original nemesis.
The guy who I hit with that sneaky uppercut yesterday 

For the record, Cheswick was never a nemesis, more like a gnat on a horses arse. 
Just kind of there, kind of annoying, yet still very insignificant.

How much do you think it is killing him to not be able to come in here and ask me why I'm all emotional? 

Based on DL's activity it would stand to reason that he is already back on Covers with an alias. Sniffing him shouldn't be too difficult if I am correct.
 
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Posted: #886
I'm sure the Rajah of Redundancy will eventually make his presence known, and yes, sniffing him out should be easy enough.

BTW, IYL, who did you used to be? 

To keep things on topic, the irony occurred to me that a lesbian might be done in by a weiner ...




bigreds daddy
 
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Posted: #887
Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:

I'm sure the Rajah of Redundancy will eventually make his presence known, and yes, sniffing him out should be easy enough.

BTW, IYL, who did you used to be? 

To keep things on topic, the irony occurred to me that a lesbian might be done in by a weiner ...





Hugh......it's an exciting day for you and it pleases me to see you enjoying a moment in time that clearly belongs to Trump backers. I have done the same when the news was good for HRC.

The question that you raised above is wrong though. I told you my story in a different thread. Hopefully you were just joking around as I hope it is clear that IYL16 is the only account that I have used on Covers since finding this political forum over the summer. You know better Sir
 
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Posted: #888
Quote Originally Posted by Inyourlife16:


Hugh......it's an exciting day for you and it pleases me to see you enjoying a moment in time that clearly belongs to Trump backers. I have done the same when the news was good for HRC.

The question that you raised above is wrong though. I told you my story in a different thread. Hopefully you were just joking around as I hope it is clear that IYL16 is the only account that I have used on Covers since finding this political forum over the summer. You know better Sir

I prefer to be referred to as "Anti-Hillary" before a "Trump supporter"
The former is much easier to be than the latter.

IYL, while our political views may differ, you are a welcome NEW addition to the forum.
How's that? 
bigreds daddy
 
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Posted: #889
Thinking out loud here because this is all happening very quickly....

Do you guys think the average voter (not us, the REAL average voter) will know or care about this news from today?   

I have my doubts.  Especially in this election.  It all seems like blurry noise at this point.  Because of the slew of events on both sides along these lines - doesnt this just get drowned out to the average voter as more noise?  *not  interested in whether this is ACTUALLY noise, but what the average voter thinks and if that can actually change votes.

I am thinking of buying more HRC at -300.

It is crazy that I actually went back and read my bets carefully.  Is it "next president" or "win the election" because it is conceivable that she wins the election but is then indicted and never becomes president.

I felt like a poker player peeking at his hole cards to make sure he had what he thought he had.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #890
Going back to the math and the map.....

It sure looks like to me that there are 6 states in play right now....

FL, OH, NC, AZ, NV, IA

And if he WINS ALL OF THEM, she still wins at 273.

So once again - if he wins that 6 team parlay....  HE STILL NEEDS TO FLIP A STATE THAT IS IN THE 85%+ range for HRC.

I just keep telling myself that at -300 she is mathematically a great value - but with the uncertainty of an outside factor affecting the election (like this investigation) - I am not sure I am ready to bet more.

I encourage you all to go here - and tell me how you see Trump winning.  (which states) - because this is the only thing that matters.

https://www.270towin.com/

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #891
Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:


I prefer to be referred to as "Anti-Hillary" before a "Trump supporter"
The former is much easier to be than the latter.

IYL, while our political views may differ, you are a welcome NEW addition to the forum.
How's that? 



Thank you Hugh
 
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Posted: #892
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Going back to the math and the map.....

It sure looks like to me that there are 6 states in play right now....

FL, OH, NC, AZ, NV, IA

And if he WINS ALL OF THEM, she still wins at 273.

So once again - if he wins that 6 team parlay....  HE STILL NEEDS TO FLIP A STATE THAT IS IN THE 85%+ range for HRC.

I just keep telling myself that at -300 she is mathematically a great value - but with the uncertainty of an outside factor affecting the election (like this investigation) - I am not sure I am ready to bet more.

I encourage you all to go here - and tell me how you see Trump winning.  (which states) - because this is the only thing that matters.

https://www.270towin.com/

The electoral map is a tightrope for Trump, no doubt. Realistically, early returns in the east have to come back with a multitude of surprises.

1) Huge turnout

2) Sizeable margins in FL and OH and an upset in NC

3) East coast success needs to bolster rep turnout in the west...AZ, UT, NV, all of NE

4) Grab a few wins in the northeast...split Maine, win NH

5) IF Pennsylvania goes Trump, then there are many scenarios that will work.

By any of the analysis set forth by analysts and polling companies, the parlay for Trump to win is a long odds shot. So, -300 for HRC will work.

So, FL, OH, NV, AZ, UT, all NE, split ME, NH

IF PA falls then Trump becomes the favorite.

Unless our brain trust in the US has it all wrong and this election falls in the outlier category.....and that is what I bet on.

Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
 
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Posted: #893

Forgot IA.

Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
 
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Posted: #894
My honed instincts are kicking in. We ll sit back and regret not unloading the brinks truck on hill at these low odds so close to election day. He can get to 264 reasonably, passing 270 seems impossible short of her getting indicted between now and then. Electoral math doesn't add up for him FBI or not.
 
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Posted: #895
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Thinking out loud here because this is all happening very quickly....

Do you guys think the average voter (not us, the REAL average voter) will know or care about this news from today?   

I have my doubts.  Especially in this election.  It all seems like blurry noise at this point.  Because of the slew of events on both sides along these lines - doesnt this just get drowned out to the average voter as more noise?  *not  interested in whether this is ACTUALLY noise, but what the average voter thinks and if that can actually change votes.

I am thinking of buying more HRC at -300.

It is crazy that I actually went back and read my bets carefully.  Is it "next president" or "win the election" because it is conceivable that she wins the election but is then indicted and never becomes president.

I felt like a poker player peeking at his hole cards to make sure he had what he thought he had.


I completely agree, the odds are totally overreacting to this...

Pretty sad, how many times does this woman need to be exposed before people start giving a $h!t...regardless from a purely gambling standpoint, I back her again at this price
 
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Posted: #896
Let's see what happens when people put their money on a traitor, felon and criminal. Hillary and Bill are all 3. There might be huge, huge and tremendous surprises on 8 November. Hillary is worthless.
 
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Posted: #897
Quote Originally Posted by Inyourlife16:


Serenity Now, Serenity Now

Like i said in other thread, HRC will win. I like her chances. 
 
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Posted: #898
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:


Like i said in other thread, HRC will win. I like her chances. 

I agree, HRC will probably win.

Given the opportunity to bet on her at -160 or so, I would.
People were touting her at -600 ... her "probably" winning is not enough to lay big odds with all the illegal activity in her track record that could potentially be exposed.

If I can get odds of her being impeached that may be the best bet of all 
bigreds daddy
 
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Posted: #899
It is crazy that I actually went back and read my bets carefully.  Is it "next president" or "win the election" because it is conceivable that she wins the election but is then indicted and never becomes president.


for a lot of reasons, she isn't getting indicted and never was.  at the other site, i was telling people the only real free money bet that was offered during this process was one 5dimes had on whether she'd get indicted in 2016.  no was in the -400 range. 

if this is a consideration in another bet for you, it shouldn't be.  particularly after the doj (who makes the decision, not the fbi) came out and said there is no crime to prosecute, i'd put the chances of her getting indicted at about 1%.
 
 
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Posted: #900
Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

It is crazy that I actually went back and read my bets carefully.  Is it "next president" or "win the election" because it is conceivable that she wins the election but is then indicted and never becomes president.


for a lot of reasons, she isn't getting indicted and never was.  at the other site, i was telling people the only real free money bet that was offered during this process was one 5dimes had on whether she'd get indicted in 2016.  no was in the -400 range. 

if this is a consideration in another bet for you, it shouldn't be.  particularly after the doj (who makes the decision, not the fbi) came out and said there is no crime to prosecute, i'd put the chances of her getting indicted at about 1%.

i took that bet at -260 range at 5dimes, Comey is sitting on a hot seat now. Looks like the game of Hillary vs Comey is brewing now.


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