Posted:
#1
With the candidates pretty clear as of last night.... I thought I would post about the election. My biggest bet of my lifetime was on Obama in 2008, as posted here at covers - and I have been on the right side the last 4 elections.
I am going to make this simple. I always go back to math. Sure if you watch the CNNs or Fox News of the world- you will hear really anything you want to hear. But there is one simple truth that gets drowned out in all the noise:
The US voting demographic has changed drastically in the last 20 years.
If you are a Republican running for President in 2016, you start a 100 yard dash 200 yards from the finish line. Democrats start with a 242-180 electorate lead before the race even starts because of states who are already decided. You only need 270 to win. These states are Florida, Ohio, Virginia, NC, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and NH. You might argue Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are on that list too, although that is probably a stretch.
There are only a handful of states that decide elections - and since the Dem is only 28 electoral votes away from winning - it means that the Dem could win Florida alone out of all of the swing states and still win the election.
The math just isnt there for Trump. He has to almost clean sweep the swing states - which is a bigger longshot than his current betting odds suggest.
In the coming months you will hear polls - and you will hear opinions. There is only one thing that matters - can Trump win the states listed above? Can he win almost all of them?
I missed the boat several times with Clinton at better odds. And laying close to -300 now doesnt excite me either - but I still think she should be about -800 or so.
Don't get sucked in to betting on Trump. There is a definite political movement there - but the math just isnt there.
GL
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
,,,,
Hot Forum Topics
