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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:



making america great again transcends math, logic and reason.  

I guess that's what we are seeing.

I'm thinking -250 sounds like a lot. Hopefully trump does well and this drops below -200.  That's probably the buy in point for me 
 
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Posted: #27
Vanzack puts out numbers that were all over MSM, esp CNN, that the race is over cause HRC has the numbers. Then he mentions polls taken a month ago in key swing states.
I mention facts 1) 75 million bucks of negative ads had no discernible effect on the Frontrunner
2) highest vote total in history for a GOP candidate
3) landslide victories in key swing states of Florida, New York and Penn.
4) Hillary will get nada in the South
5) Hillary is establishment and this does not click with young voters disillusioned with the system
6) Hillary will not get swaths of black voters to work for her, and enthusiasm will be curbed, and democratic advantages in numbers are nullified by the fact that they won't vote

Vanzack ignores that by telling us that Hillary has insurmountable advantages in polls taken in March.

Typical gambler.
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by dl36:

Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

making america great again transcends math, logic and reason.  
I guess that's what we are seeing.I'm thinking -250 sounds like a lot. Hopefully trump does well and this drops below -200.  That's probably the buy in point for me

If I remind you that Vanzack got drilled in Champions League, yet persisted with these write ups that SOUNDED logical, but were flawed with misperceptions and opinions misconstrued as facts, and wishful thinking parlayed with prediction. Disaster strikes twice.
 
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Posted: #29
+250 is a good bet.

I just collected on Trump at 4-1. "Experts" we're backing Jeb Bush, and yet no enthusiasm reflected in the actual voters.

Hillarys voting numbers are DOWN from 2008. She is getting tested by Sanders to the end. She ain't there yet. Typical gambler calling a game over before the final whistle. Contested open convention still a probability.
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by dl36:

Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

making america great again transcends math, logic and reason.  
I guess that's what we are seeing.I'm thinking -250 sounds like a lot. Hopefully trump does well and this drops below -200.  That's probably the buy in point for me

You're an idiot who won't bet a cent. Stop em gratifying yourself, acting like you're gonna put down your stock portfolio to "buy in" --lol

It is more honest and you might get more compassion in life if you admit you're a loser, instead of playing the fool on both ends, and putting us all through this self aggrandizement. Pathetic souless morass.
 
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Posted: #31
Vanzack wins his bet, but it's gonna be closer than many think.
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by cashin:

Vanzack wins his bet, but it's gonna be closer than many think.

No Vanzack will lose his bet IN A LANDSLIDE.  COMPLETE rejection of the name CLINTON, and the first and probably last in our lifetime non-politician will be given the reigns to undo the ream job America has been put thru by politicians like Bill and his globalist centered NAFTA (while he was busy raping women).

Trump wins before California is called.
 
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Posted: #33

realistic odds:

The next President of the U.S.

Hillary Clinton  -650

Donald Trump  +1100

Bernie Sanders +3000

 
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Posted: #34
as far as the so called 'polls' are concerned...those that are intuned can justify to the fact that CNN had Hillary Clinton as a landslide WINNER in Michigan; what happened? Bernie took her to the cleaners....polls are media, media sells advertising time, mathematics (does not push the lever)  has nothing to do with who, what, when, where, and why people vote for who they want, remember; "there's always a silent majority" aka: the Reagan approach..to each his own
 
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Posted: #35
Great stuff Van.

I'm just surprised you waited for the odds to be so long! Hillary was as low as -130 at one point. 

Was it because you didn't know her opponent and were bothered by the fact a Cruz/Kaisich/Rubio/Jeb could have won those states as the GOP nominee and taken her out? And now with Trump we can call the race?

I just want to add that Mitt Romney catered to the exact same white GOP voting base Trump is catering to, and dominated in that group on almost all fronts (income/gender/almost all ages except millennials). But this still wasn't even remotely enough to win the election.

While the white voting base has been energized, the Hispanic voting base will most definitely turn out in very high numbers, as will the black voting base (the former to vote against Trump and the latter to support Hillary) which will lead to Trump's downfall.

I see a valiant effort by Trump on Election Day ultimately falling short.

And anyone who thinks NJ will go to Trump is insane. You need only look to Chris Christie's endorsement of him to have Trump officially lose that state. Christie has record breaking unfavorable ratings in the state and that is among a long list of corrupt governors.

And some here think NY can go red? Never. One of the most diverse voting bases in the nation, if not the most diverse, with the easiest access to the voting booths.


Van, does such a big bet, if the same size as in 2012 with Obama, cause you any cash flow problems given your money is locked up for half a year?
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

 


Van, does such a big bet, if the same size as in 2012 with Obama, cause you any cash flow problems given your money is locked up for half a year?

You raise the point as to why I don't see equal money coming in on Trump. If this forum is any indication, if Trump bettors try to chase the +210, they will tie up the whole $100 in their account for the first 8 weeks of football season. 

On a serious note, Van (or anyone else), for such a large future wager, do you figure in the length of the tie up time? I had Obama very good in 2008 but only bet in September (and obviously did not get the best odds). 

If one wants to bet HRC, my thought is waiting until right after the Republican Convention, although it is entirely possible that the convention might showcase the Trump implosion. 
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by cashin:

Vanzack wins his bet, but it's gonna be closer than many think.

Well, I dont have a bet to lose.

I said in my original post that I missed the boat several times.  But I do think I will buy in soon.  Just waiting, but as of now - nothing.
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

realistic odds:

The next President of the U.S.

Hillary Clinton  -650

Donald Trump  +1100

Bernie Sanders +3000


If it is "next president" - being that we have about 8 months left int he current term - Joe Biden would have to be on that list at about 250-1.

But I think you are close on your Clinton odds.

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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Great stuff Van.

I'm just surprised you waited for the odds to be so long! Hillary was as low as -130 at one point. 

Was it because you didn't know her opponent and were bothered by the fact a Cruz/Kaisich/Rubio/Jeb could have won those states as the GOP nominee and taken her out? And now with Trump we can call the race?

I just want to add that Mitt Romney catered to the exact same white GOP voting base Trump is catering to, and dominated in that group on almost all fronts (income/gender/almost all ages except millennials). But this still wasn't even remotely enough to win the election.

While the white voting base has been energized, the Hispanic voting base will most definitely turn out in very high numbers, as will the black voting base (the former to vote against Trump and the latter to support Hillary) which will lead to Trump's downfall.

I see a valiant effort by Trump on Election Day ultimately falling short.

And anyone who thinks NJ will go to Trump is insane. You need only look to Chris Christie's endorsement of him to have Trump officially lose that state. Christie has record breaking unfavorable ratings in the state and that is among a long list of corrupt governors.

And some here think NY can go red? Never. One of the most diverse voting bases in the nation, if not the most diverse, with the easiest access to the voting booths.


Van, does such a big bet, if the same size as in 2012 with Obama, cause you any cash flow problems given your money is locked up for half a year?

I actually didnt wait to bet.  I dont have a bet yet.  At every price point I stalled and thought I could get it cheaper.  One of the problems of the disease I have that I never am satisfied with the current price of things - I always want it cheaper and think I can do it.  In this case - I find myself in a bad situation.

I agree with your point of this "engergized" BS.  If anything - Trump will "energize" the minority vote to get out and vote against him.  Uneducated and religious whites are already supporting him and are energized.  That is not enough in todays America.  But the uneducated and religious whites think the louder they scream the more it means they are energized but fail to realize it just doesn't add up.

Look - if Trump ends up getting the Hispanic, African American, Asian, and Women vote - then I will be as surprised as anyone and I put that at about 10-1 against.  And is precisely why I think -250 is a good bet.

If NY and NJ go to Trump - then the whole country have basically gone to Trump.  Like I said earlier - that parlay on those two states going red would be at least 100-1.

Personally - no cash flow problems.  I would never bet anything that give me cash flow problems - that is scary to even think about.  Now - risk problems?  Definitely something I evaluate.  Would I bet a 6 month bet at a US facing book?  No chance.  Would I bet it in Vegas - or on Betfair?  Yes - but even that has risk.  This is one of the big reasons I didnt get it at a cheaper price - because the time hold on it was too great.  

It is interesting to talk about politics betting.  You would think a Jets / Giants game would bring out the homers - but jeesh - it is exponentially higher with politics.  It is really hard to get any kind of rational discussion on it - which is at the core of why I think you can really beat the markets.  You would think a presidential election would be an efficient market - but with so much emotion and misleading polls and stories on the news (mentioned correctly earlier in the thread by others) - you get things like Obama being a dog to McCain several days before the election.



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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by djbrow:


You raise the point as to why I don't see equal money coming in on Trump. If this forum is any indication, if Trump bettors try to chase the +210, they will tie up the whole $100 in their account for the first 8 weeks of football season. 

On a serious note, Van (or anyone else), for such a large future wager, do you figure in the length of the tie up time? I had Obama very good in 2008 but only bet in September (and obviously did not get the best odds). 

If one wants to bet HRC, my thought is waiting until right after the Republican Convention, although it is entirely possible that the convention might showcase the Trump implosion. 

Absolutely DJ.  As I said above in my response to Scal.  It is a risk issue.  The time value of money in todays world is basically nothing.  But the risk is there, and always concerns me.

Another risk of time is just the uncertainty of life in general.  What if she became ill, or actually was in trouble for something, or Bill bangs another 20 something?  That is a risk with time.  Certainly if the election was next week I would be betting her bigtime at the current price, but in 6 months - jeesh - sh*t happens.

I think you are right about the timing of the bet.  I think right after the Rep convention she might be sitting at -200 or less, and that is probably when I will start to drip in.

GL

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Posted: #41
What??!?

Come on Van, you wouldn't have a 6-month futures bet on a US book?

Where the hell does that put me and everyone else here?

I have an NFL future in already that can't pay out until 2017 if it hits!

What do you foresee happening in the next 6 months, or is that just a 'paranoid' side of Van talking/typing?
 
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Posted: #42
https://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard

The latest electoral vote analysis by the non-partisan Cook Political Report shows HRC leading 304-190, with 44 in the Toss-up category.

Even if Trump does make some progress and manages to win every Toss-up state, he will still lose the election.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

What??!?

Come on Van, you wouldn't have a 6-month futures bet on a US book?

Where the hell does that put me and everyone else here?

I have an NFL future in already that can't pay out until 2017 if it hits!

What do you foresee happening in the next 6 months, or is that just a 'paranoid' side of Van talking/typing?

Risk / Reward.

Ever buy an options contract?   The longer you have until the strike date - the more you pay.

Same thinking here.  With 6 months left - there is too much risk that a US facing book might have something happen.  It is just part of the risk equation.
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

https://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard

The latest electoral vote analysis by the non-partisan Cook Political Report shows HRC leading 304-190, with 44 in the Toss-up category.

Even if Trump does make some progress and manages to win every Toss-up state, he will still lose the election.

I will be looking for a big price on Georgia voting Blue for the first time.   If I get the right price, I will be on it.
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Posted: #45
i've had a bet on just about every election primary day so far and i hate having that bet sit there for two weeks or so.  so, i'm not letting money sit there for months. 

some of the odds have moved significantly in a short period of time for no apparent reason so you could get a better number than -250 but at some point, some decent polls are going to come out and this number will move up. 

i think this says it all.  Look - if Trump ends up getting the Hispanic, African American, Asian, and Women vote - then I will be as surprised as anyone and I put that at about 10-1 against.  And is precisely why I think -250 is a good bet.

angry white Republican jesus followers can pretend like they run the show when it comes to electing the president but they don't. 
 
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Posted: #46

There are a lot of angry,  non Jesus following Dems out there as well. Not to mention a lot of angry, black Americans who could not wait to pull the lever for O during the past 2 election cycles. Just saying. Why would anybody rush out their home with their HRC button proudly placed on their shirt to vote for her? Mind numbing!

 
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Posted: #47
FYI, any comments? Surprised Christie's odds are that low!

Odds - Trump's Vice President:
Kasich 4/1
Christie 5/1
Haley 10/1
Martinez 12/1
Rubio 14/1
Huckabee 16/1
Carson 16/1
Sessions 16/1
Cruz 16/1
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


Risk / Reward.

Ever buy an options contract?   The longer you have until the strike date - the more you pay.

Same thinking here.  With 6 months left - there is too much risk that a US facing book might have something happen.  It is just part of the risk equation.

I don't see much of any risk Van. We have legalized poker and online gaming in Nj and are expanding the online gambling arena. Even pokerstars is back online.

The days of the Feds or NY attorney general going after some rogue sports gambling sites are over in my opinion. Sports gambling is the obvious next step in legalized online gaming, especially in NJ as you've documented on this site in other threads.
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

FYI, any comments? Surprised Christie's odds are that low!

Odds - Trump's Vice President:
Kasich 4/1
Christie 5/1
Haley 10/1
Martinez 12/1
Rubio 14/1
Huckabee 16/1
Carson 16/1
Sessions 16/1
Cruz 16/1


actually, at one point, after christie endorsed trump, there was a yes or no bet on whether trump would pick christie as his VP.  no was around -400.  if i was going to make a bet that was decided that far out, i would have unloaded on no.  i'm not saying trump thinks rationally but i just didn't see how angry loud mouthed white guy picks angry loud mouthed white guy to be his vp.

i guess we'll see.
 
 
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Posted: #50

There are a lot of frustrated moderate Republicans as well. Not to mention a lot of conservative Republicans(fiscal and social) came out against Trump. I don't recall any previous "Never anybody" movement on either party like we see this time around.

Obviously, nothing is impossible but to predict a landslide by Trump is just not logical.

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