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UPDATE: 'Race for the White House'

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Posted: #1

ALL CAMPAIGNS, including trump's, *RELY* on polling information year round. It helps any campaign identify key areas for improvement in their messaging, ads, and narratives as they move forward.  Much like football teams making adjustments at halftime based on what they learned in the first half, this important information helps campaigns craft a better second half and hopefully effect positive change in their favor.

 

 

UPDATE, JULY 3:

 

 

cool  States which trump won in 2016 that are 'swing states' for 2020.

Shows the mean average result of MULTIPLE-polling data, with electoral votes in parentheses. 

Joe Biden needs only to win any 3 of these 9 swing states,

*OR* win just two if one of them is Florida, and the DEMS have the WH again!

*Note that there are NO Democrat states in serious play,

while the Republicans are defending 9 and must win at least 7 despite these polls.
 

TIED again, Texas (38) ... was trump +1


+1 Biden, OHIO (18) an_light  ... down from +2

+2 Biden, Georgia (16)an_light  ... was TIED !

 

+5 Biden, Arizona (11) an_light  ... up from +4

+5 Biden, N.Carolina (15) an_light ... up from +4

+6 Biden, FLORIDA (29) an_light  ... up from +5

+7 Biden, Wisconsin (10) an_light

+7 Biden, Michigan (16)  an_light

+7 Biden, Pennsylvania (20) an_light

Source: https://www.270towin.com/

 

 

 
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Posted: #2

no way texas should be that close

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
 
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Posted: #3

Herman Cain attended the Trump ego stroke in Tulsa not wearing a mask. Now he's in a hospital with the virus.

Trump hopes he's OK. He doesn't want his black supporters to drop below double figures. 

 
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Posted: #4

Quote Originally Posted by Midnight1:

Herman Cain attended the Trump ego stroke in Tulsa not wearing a mask. Now he's in a hospital with the virus. Trump hopes he's OK. He doesn't want his black supporters to drop below double figures.
an_cheers

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
 
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Posted: #5

Quote Originally Posted by Midnight1:

Herman Cain attended the Trump ego stroke in Tulsa not wearing a mask. Now he's in a hospital with the virus. Trump hopes he's OK. He doesn't want his black supporters to drop below double figures.

"Those Turning Masks Into a 'Political Issue' Are 'Absolute Morons'"--Arnold Schwarzenegger an_light

"If we all wear masks, we slow down the spread and can reopen safely," the former California governor said of continuing to wear face coverings amid the pandemic

https://people.com/movies/arnold-schwarzenegger-says-wearing-masks-during-pandemic-is-not-a-political-issue/

Very well said, Mr. Governor. peace_5 

 

 
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Posted: #6

Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

Quote Originally Posted by Midnight1: Herman Cain attended the Trump ego stroke in Tulsa not wearing a mask. Now he's in a hospital with the virus. Trump hopes he's OK. He doesn't want his black supporters to drop below double figures. "Those Turning Masks Into a 'Political Issue' Are 'Absolute Morons'"--Arnold Schwarzenegger  "If we all wear masks, we slow down the spread and can reopen safely," the former California governor said of continuing to wear face coverings amid the pandemic https://people.com/movies/arnold-schwarzenegger-says-wearing-masks-during-pandemic-is-not-a-political-issue/ Very well said, Mr. Governor.
arnie is right .but the president is more concerned about stroking his own ego with relection than public safety so he wont lead on that issue

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
 
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Posted: #7

There are NO Democrat states in serious play as a "battleground state" for the 2020 presidential election,

But trump/Republicans will be defending 9 states and must win at least 7, despite these polls showing BIDEN leading in 8 and tied in one.

 
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Posted: #8

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

There are NO Democrat states in serious play as a "battleground state" for the 2020 presidential election, But trump/Republicans will be defending 9 states and must win at least 7, despite these polls showing BIDEN leading in 8 and tied in one.
if trump has to win 7 of those states tostay in power the real chances are even worse than rutgerswinning the national title in football next yr

 
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Posted: #9

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

There are NO Democrat states in serious play as a "battleground state" for the 2020 presidential election, But trump/Republicans will be defending 9 states and must win at least 7, despite these polls showing BIDEN leading in 8 and tied in one.
that is going to be incredibly difficult.

possible but very difficult

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
 
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Posted: #10

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

There are NO Democrat states in serious play as a "battleground state" for the 2020 presidential election, But trump/Republicans will be defending 9 states and must win at least 7, despite these polls showing BIDEN leading in 8 and tied in one.

 

ALL CAMPAIGNS, including trump's, *RELY* on polling information year round. It helps any campaign identify key areas for improvement in their messaging, ads, and narratives as they move forward.  Much like football teams making adjustments at halftime based on what they learned in the first half, this important information helps campaigns craft a better second half and hopefully effect positive change in their favor.

 

 

UPDATE, JULY 4:

 

cool  States which trump won in 2016.

Note: IOWA is currently TIED or +1 trump, but only worth 6 electoral votes.
 

TIED again, Texas (38) ... was trump +1


+1 Biden, OHIO (18) an_light  ... down from +2

+2 Biden, Georgia (16)an_light  ... was TIED !

 

+4 Biden, FLORIDA (29) an_light  ... DOWN from +6

+5 Biden, Arizona (11) an_light  ... up from +4

+5 Biden, N.Carolina (15) an_light ... up from +4

+7 Biden, Wisconsin (10) an_light

+7 Biden, Michigan (16)  an_light

+7 Biden, Pennsylvania (20) an_light

Source: https://www.270towin.com/

 

 
 
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Posted: #11

Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

"Those Turning Masks Into a 'Political Issue' Are 'Absolute Morons'"    --Arnold Schwarzenegger an_light

"If we all wear masks, we slow down the spread and can reopen safely," the former California governor said of continuing to wear face coverings amid the pandemic

https://people.com/movies/arnold-schwarzenegger-says-wearing-masks-during-pandemic-is-not-a-political-issue/

Very WISE!

 
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Posted: #12

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

UPDATE, JULY 4:     States which trump won in 2016.Note: IOWA is currently TIED or +1 trump, but only worth 6 electoral votes.  TIED again, Texas (38) ... was trump +1 +1 Biden, OHIO (18)   ... down from +2 +2 Biden, Georgia (16)  ... was TIED !   +4 Biden, FLORIDA (29)   ... DOWN from +6 +5 Biden, Arizona (11)   ... up from +4+5 Biden, N.Carolina (15) ... up from +4+7 Biden, Wisconsin (10) +7 Biden, Michigan (16)  +7 Biden, Pennsylvania (20) Source: https://www.270towin.com/
no way texas turns blue in 2020 .neither for iowa

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
 
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Posted: #13

Love Arnie, but I cant take him seriously about anything medically... unless it is how to use steroids,horse pills and good knows what else.  

 
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Posted: #14

Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:

no way texas turns blue in 2020 .neither for iowa

 

Yes, that would seem very unlikely, and personally I am conceeding both.

But the rest of the swing states are a different story.  I will keep this updated as needed.

 

 

UPDATE, JULY 4:

 

cool  States which trump won in 2016.

Note: IOWA is currently TIED or +1 trump, but only worth 6 electoral votes.
 

TIED again, Texas (38) ... was trump +1


+1 Biden, OHIO (18) an_light  ... down from +2

+2 Biden, Georgia (16)an_light  ... was TIED !

 

+4 Biden, FLORIDA (29) an_light  ... DOWN from +6

+5 Biden, Arizona (11) an_light  ... up from +4

+5 Biden, N.Carolina (15) an_light ... up from +4

+7 Biden, Wisconsin (10) an_light

+7 Biden, Michigan (16)  an_light

+7 Biden, Pennsylvania (20) an_light

Source: https://www.270towin.com/

 

 
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Posted: #15

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

I will keep this updated as needed.     UPDATE, JULY 4:     States which trump won in 2016.Note: IOWA is currently TIED or +1 trump, but only worth 6 electoral votes.  TIED again, Texas (38) ... was trump +1 +1 Biden, OHIO (18)   ... down from +2 +2 Biden, Georgia (16)  ... was TIED !   +4 Biden, FLORIDA (29)   ... DOWN from +6 +5 Biden, Arizona (11)   ... up from +4+5 Biden, N.Carolina (15) ... up from +4+7 Biden, Wisconsin (10) +7 Biden, Michigan (16)  +7 Biden, Pennsylvania (20) Source: https://www.270towin.com/

Excerpts from an article:

 

" The average live-interview poll over the last month has Biden ahead by about 11-point margin.
 
 
Polls taken around Independence Day in an election year are actually pretty highly correlated
with the November results in incumbent contests.
 
That means Trump is in a lot of trouble.
 
Take a look at the 13 incumbent elections dating all the way back to 1940.
The final result differs from the polls at this point by an average of just 7 points.
The median difference is only about 4.5 points.
 
These should be quite worrisome for Trump given he's already down double-digits,
and there's no guarantee any polling miss would benefit him.
 
More troublesome for Trump: no one in an incumbent presidential election has
been polling above 50% like Biden and gone on to lose.
In other words, Trump needs something quite unusual to occur in order to come back in this race.
 
 
Now, the past isn't necessarily prologue. There is time for volatility.
The polls will probably bounce around during the convention period.
(Part of the reason the first 10 days of July are a good snapshot is that it is usually after the
primary season but before the conventions.) Trump could close the gap and could very well win.
 
But make no mistake:
an incumbent,  trailing by double-digits in early July,  with an opponent over 50%,
is a heavy underdog for reelection. "
 
Source for this article: https://tinyurl.com/y8wp3sn9
 
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Posted: #16

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: I will keep this updated as needed.     UPDATE, JULY 4:     States which trump won in 2016.Note: IOWA is currently TIED or +1 trump, but only worth 6 electoral votes.  TIED again, Texas (38) ... was trump +1 +1 Biden, OHIO (18)   ... down from +2 +2 Biden, Georgia (16)  ... was TIED !   +4 Biden, FLORIDA (29)   ... DOWN from +6 +5 Biden, Arizona (11)   ... up from +4+5 Biden, N.Carolina (15) ... up from +4+7 Biden, Wisconsin (10) +7 Biden, Michigan (16)  +7 Biden, Pennsylvania (20) Source: https://www.270towin.com/ Excerpts from an article:   " The average live-interview poll over the last month has Biden ahead by about 11-point margin.     Polls taken around Independence Day in an election year are actually pretty highly correlated with the November results in incumbent contests.   That means Trump is in a lot of trouble.   Take a look at the 13 incumbent elections dating all the way back to 1940. The final result differs from the polls at this point by an average of just 7 points. The median difference is only about 4.5 points.   These should be quite worrisome for Trump given he's already down double-digits, and there's no guarantee any polling miss would benefit him.   More troublesome for Trump: no one in an incumbent presidential election has been polling above 50% like Biden and gone on to lose. In other words, Trump needs something quite unusual to occur in order to come back in this race.     Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout     Now, the past isn't necessarily prologue. There is time for volatility. The polls will probably bounce around during the convention period. (Part of the reason the first 10 days of July are a good snapshot is that it is usually after the primary season but before the conventions.) Trump could close the gap and could very well win.   But make no mistake: an incumbent,  trailing by double-digits in early July,  with an opponent over 50%, is a heavy underdog for reelection. "   Source for this article: https://tinyurl.com/y8wp3sn9

 

But make no mistake:
 
an incumbent,  trailing by double-digits in early July,  with an opponent over 50%,
is a heavy underdog for reelection. "
 
Source for this article: https://tinyurl.com/y8wp3sn9
 
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Posted: #17

UPDATE, JULY 11:

 

cool  States which trump won in 2016.

Note: IOWA is +1 trump, but only worth 6 electoral votes.
 

TIED again, Texas (38) 


+1 Biden, OHIO (18) an_light  

+3 Biden, Georgia (16)an_light  ... up from +2

+4 Biden, FLORIDA (29) an_light  

+5 Biden, Arizona (11) an_light  

+5 Biden, N.Carolina (15) an_light 

+7 Biden, Wisconsin (10) an_light

+7 Biden, Michigan (16)  an_light

+7 Biden, Pennsylvania (20) an_light

Source: https://www.270towin.com/

 

 
 
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Posted: #18

bmbiden needs what Hillary had plus phidelphia and a electoral vote. This is about as clear as it gets.... To even be close in Texas is a lightyear ahead of schedual to win the presidency electoral college you need new York Florida California Illinois and Texas... Everything else equals that.

 
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Posted: #19

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

UPDATE, JULY 11:     States which trump won in 2016.Note: IOWA is +1 trump, but only worth 6 electoral votes.  TIED again, Texas (38)  +1 Biden, OHIO (18)    +3 Biden, Georgia (16)  ... up from +2 +4 Biden, FLORIDA (29)    +5 Biden, Arizona (11)    +5 Biden, N.Carolina (15)   +7 Biden, Wisconsin (10) +7 Biden, Michigan (16)  +7 Biden, Pennsylvania (20) Source: https://www.270towin.com/

I'll do my part in Arizona! Encouraging all of my friends and family too. I know a couple of unregistered voters I am working with to get signed up. 

 

 
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Posted: #20

Quote Originally Posted by DeezyAZ81:

I'll do my part in Arizona! Encouraging all of my friends and family too.

I know a couple of unregistered voters I am working with to get signed up.

arizona could b close so your help is appreciated i am sure

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
 
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Posted: #21

Quote Originally Posted by DeezyAZ81:

I'll do my part in Arizona! Encouraging all of my friends and family too. I know a couple of unregistered voters I am working with to get signed up.

Keep up that good work!

If just a few thousands more had that same attitude as you 4 years ago in only 3 states (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn) we wouldn't be living this adolf-trump nightmare today.

 
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Posted: #22

UPDATE, JULY 13:

 

cool  States trump won in 2016


Joe Biden needs only to win 3 of these 9 states, or just 2 if one is Florida!


trump MUST win at least 7 of these 9 states an_beatup


+1 Biden, Texas (38)  ... was TIED  (note: trump will win Texas, but this is interesting)

+1 Biden, OHIO (18) an_light  

+3 Biden, Georgia (16)an_light  ... up from +2

+4 Biden, Arizona (11) an_light   ...down from +5

+5 Biden, FLORIDA (29) an_light ... up from +4

+5 Biden, N.Carolina (15) an_light 

+7 Biden, Wisconsin (10) an_light

+7 Biden, Michigan (16)  an_light

+7 Biden, Pennsylvania (20) an_light

Source: https://www.270towin.com/

 

 
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Posted: #23

UPDATE, JULY 15:

 

cool  States trump won in 2016


Joe Biden needs only to win 3 of these 9 states, or just 2 if one is Florida!


trump MUST win at least 7 of these 9 states an_beatup


+1 Biden, Texas (38)  ... was TIED  (note: trump will win Texas, but this is interesting)

+1 Biden, OHIO (18) an_light  

+3 Biden, N.Carolina (15) an_light ...DOWN from +5

+3 Biden, Georgia (16)an_light  ... up from +2

+4 Biden, Arizona (11) an_light   ...DOWN from +5

+6 Biden, FLORIDA (29) an_light ... up from +5

+7 Biden, Wisconsin (10) an_light

+7 Biden, Michigan (16)  an_light

+7 Biden, Pennsylvania (20) an_light

Source: https://www.270towin.com/

 
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Posted: #24

An NBC/WSJ poll out Wednesday finds Biden leading adolf
with an increasing margin, Biden with 51% support among
registered voters over Trump's 40%.
In the NBC/WSJ June poll, Biden lead Trump with 49% to 42%.

 

Former Vice President Joe Biden has opened up a 15-point lead
over adolf Trump, according to a new Quinnipiac University
national poll that also spells out bad news for the President
on the economy, his most important selling point for reelection.


The economy had been the only issue on which Trump
earned a net positive rating in Quinnipiac's polling, but now
44% approve while 53% disapprove of his performance.

 

 

 

 
 
Captain
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Posted: #25

Yeah I mean you would think with Trump's historic economy and unprecedented growth, the American people would approve of his policies and the economy in large majorities. Interesting. 

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