UPDATE: Key Senate races as of October 23
The Good Guys might gain Kansas and Georgia now, too!
They must win 3 net seats to capture Senate in a tie, with Harris casting deciding vote.
But they will likely lose Senate seat in Alabama to Tuberville (R).
So the good guys must win 4 other seats to get a Senate tie.
Five or six would be better to counter the chances of a rogue Dem Senator demanding
unreasonable goodies in return for his/her vote on any closely contested issues.
I say they need to win at least 5 seats for that reason.
+8.0 COLORADO - Gov. Hickenlooper (D) easily over *Gardner
+5.6 ARIZONA - Mark Kelly (D) over *Martha McSally in serious trouble!
+4.2 MAINE - Sara Gideon (D) over *Susan Collins
+1.7 N.CAROLINA - Cunningham (D) over *Tillis
+1.8 IOWA - Greenfield (D) vs *Joni Ernst
+1.0 KANSAS - Barbara Bollier (D) vs Marshall (R)
TIED S.CAROLINA - Jaime Harrison (D) vs Lindsey Graham in serious trouble!
??? GEORGIA: Warnock (D) in fair position to unseat Loeffler in January runoff
- 3.3 MONTANA - Governor Bullock (D) vs *Daines
According to Bookies, gambling markets favor Biden with Trump in decline. If Biden takes all the states he is leading by 5 points or more in polls, it adds up to over 270 electoral votes. He is threatening to flip states that Trump won in 2016. However Trump's chances are more complicated as he is behind in most swing states. The economist gives Biden 91% probability of winning electoral college.
Gambling markets and the majority of polls pointed to Harry Clinton victory back in 2016. So, got to be cautiously sanguine here, of course H. Clinton is not on the ballot this time, it's Joe Biden.
UPDATE, October 23:
Biden's national lead narrows a little:
+7.9 Biden/Harris at RealClearPolitics
+8.0 Biden/Harris at 270towin
+9.2 Biden/Harris at FiveThirtyEight
solid lead
Yes.
Bounces around due to rolling averages with the poll monitroing sites but overall fairly consistent.
Late, October 25:
Real Clear Politics website, average of polls:
*NOTE: RCP is a right-biased website
trump must win SIX of these at least !
Biden only needs to win 3.
Joe Biden's "swing state" lead...
TIED OHIO
+0.8 Georgia down 0.3
+1.5 Florida down 0.1
+1.5 N.Carolina down 0.3
+2.4 Arizona down 0.4
+4.6 Wisconsin
+5.0 Pennsylvania UP +0.5
+7.2 Michigan (*was +6.7 prior to trump attacking Gov Whitmer)
Late, October 25:
Real Clear Politics website, average of polls:
*NOTE: RCP is a right-biased website
trump must win SIX of these at least !
Biden only needs to win 3.
Joe Biden's "swing state" lead...
TIED OHIO
+0.8 Georgia down 0.3
+1.5 Florida down 0.1
+1.5 N.Carolina down 0.3
+2.4 Arizona down 0.4
+4.6 Wisconsin
+5.0 Pennsylvania UP +0.5
+7.2 Michigan (*was +6.7 prior to trump attacking Gov Whitmer)
wisconsin pennsylvannia michigan all going blue again 
Late, October 26:
FiveThirtyEight website, average of polls:
trump must win at least SIX of these!
Biden only needs to win 3.
Joe Biden's "swing state" lead...
- 1.5 OHIO
- 1.2 TEXAS ......... newly added to list
+0.4 Georgia
+2.8 N.Carolina UP 0.1
+2.3 Florida down 0.2
+2.9 Arizona
+6.5 Wisconsin UP +0.1
+5.1 Pennsylvania
+7.7 Michigan (*was +7.5 prior to trump attacking Gov Whitmer)
Late, October 26:
270towin poll of polls:
trump must win SIX of these at least !
Biden only needs to win 3.
Joe Biden's "swing state" lead...
- 0.5 OHIO
- 0.5 Georgia
- 1.0 Texas .......... newly added to list
+1.4 N.Carolina
+2.0 Florida
+2.3 Arizona
+5.0 Pennsylvania
+6.9 Wisconsin
+7.0 Michigan
October 26:
States that trump won but is now in danger of LOSING...
WISCONSIN only:
+5.3 @RealClearPolitics
+6.9 @FiveThirtyEight
+7.4 @270towin
MICHIGAN only:
+8.0 @RealClearPolitics
+7.3 @FiveThirtyEight
+8.6 @270towin
PENNSYLVANIA only:
+3.6 @RealClearPolitics
+5.1 @FiveThirtyEight
+3.6 @270towin
States that trump won but is now in danger of LOSING...
WISCONSIN only:
+5.3 @RealClearPolitics
+6.9 @FiveThirtyEight
+7.4 @270towin
MICHIGAN only:
+8.0 @RealClearPolitics
+7.3 @FiveThirtyEight
+8.6 @270towin
PENNSYLVANIA only:
+3.6 @RealClearPolitics
+5.1 @FiveThirtyEight
+3.6 @270towin
rump losing the rust belt he very narrowly won in 2016
not surprising they were almost always blue states to begin with
now after witnessing the non politician experiment with rump they r very disappointed in the results
as the polls show
Blockbuster! 31% of black voters intend to cast their votes for President Trump in latest poll from Rasmussen. Trump wins in a landslide with 'only' 25% of the black vote! Americans leaving the plantation in huge numbers! Tuesday, 3 November is potentially the end of the Democratic Party!
No chance. If you think 31% of Black voters are honestly voting Trump you are either high or braindead. This further solidifies why Rasmussen is a complete joke of a poll.
October 29:
States that trump won but is now in danger of LOSING...
WISCONSIN only:
+6.4 @RealClearPolitics
+7.6 @FiveThirtyEight
+6.4 @270towin *(8.0 head to head vs trump, only)
MICHIGAN only:
+6.5 @RealClearPolitics
+7.6 @FiveThirtyEight
+6.6 @270towin *(8.2)
PENNSYLVANIA only:
+3.6 @RealClearPolitics
+5.1 @FiveThirtyEight
+4.7 @270towin *(5.2)
ARIZONA only:
+2.2 @RealClearPolitics
+3.0 @FiveThirtyEight
+2.8 @270towin *(1.2)
FLORIDA only:
+1.2 @RealClearPolitics
+2.0 @FiveThirtyEight
+0.5 @270towin *(3.4)
North CAROLINA only:
TIED @RealClearPolitics
+2.0 @FiveThirtyEight
TIED @270towin *(1.6)
GEORGIA:
TIED @RealClearPolitics
+1.7 @FiveThirtyEight
+1.0 @270towin *(2.6)
OHIO:
TIED @RealClearPolitics
- 1.0 @FiveThirtyEight
- 2.0 @270towin *(Tied, if just vs trump)
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