Fubah, read the above link. Hillary Clinton had similar size lead, as for Joe Biden at this point, in many polls vs Donald Trump in late October 2016. Michael Smerconish has a strong point that voters turn out is crucial to Biden/Harris campaign.
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Real Clear Politics poll of polls: Joe Biden's "swing state" lead... +0.2 Georgia+0.5 OHIO+1.2 N.Carolina +3.1 Arizona+3.7 Florida+5.5 Wisconsin+6.7 Michigan (prior to trump attacking Gov Whitmer)+7.1 Pennsylvania
Fubah, read the above link. Hillary Clinton had similar size lead, as for Joe Biden at this point, in many polls vs Donald Trump in late October 2016. Michael Smerconish has a strong point that voters turn out is crucial to Biden/Harris campaign.
Can Biden's big polling lead be trusted? https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/11/politics/democrats-stressed-election/index.html Fubah, read the above link. Hillary Clinton had similar size lead, as for Joe Biden at this point, in many polls vs Donald Trump in late October 2016. Michael Smerconish has a strong point that voters turn out is crucial to Biden/Harris campaign.
Very good.
It may come down once again to the dreaded "October Surprise"
Hillary not only had to overcome the Russsians helping trump in Sept/Oct, but then the infamous WikiLeaks and finally the late announcement by James Comey. Her polling dropped to within the margin of error at +3 and she did win the vote by +2.
trump needs something like that to knock Bien down.
He was *HOPING* it would be the hoax known as the "alleged" Durham Report.
But apparently that is not forthcoming, and frankly even if it did, I dispute the level of effect it would ultimately have anyway. He needs something much more devastating. And it's going to be very hard to manufacture some phony allegations that would effectively smear Biden.
We have to remember that aside from the fact that there is NO real value in comparing 2016 to today as they are completely different, the biggie in the equation is "approval" ratings.
NO INCUMBENT has ever won re-election with netNEGATIVE approval ratings.
trump is currently at -9
Moreover, even if we were to compare to 2016 - which we shouldn't, but.....if we did, we have to remember this key point:
*BOTH* candidates were UNLIKEABLE -- very poor approval ratings below 50% for each.
Hillary was equally as disliked as trump....yet she won by 3 MILLION votes.
Biden has a *POSITIVE* approval rating and by a substantial margin at that!
6
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:
Can Biden's big polling lead be trusted? https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/11/politics/democrats-stressed-election/index.html Fubah, read the above link. Hillary Clinton had similar size lead, as for Joe Biden at this point, in many polls vs Donald Trump in late October 2016. Michael Smerconish has a strong point that voters turn out is crucial to Biden/Harris campaign.
Very good.
It may come down once again to the dreaded "October Surprise"
Hillary not only had to overcome the Russsians helping trump in Sept/Oct, but then the infamous WikiLeaks and finally the late announcement by James Comey. Her polling dropped to within the margin of error at +3 and she did win the vote by +2.
trump needs something like that to knock Bien down.
He was *HOPING* it would be the hoax known as the "alleged" Durham Report.
But apparently that is not forthcoming, and frankly even if it did, I dispute the level of effect it would ultimately have anyway. He needs something much more devastating. And it's going to be very hard to manufacture some phony allegations that would effectively smear Biden.
We have to remember that aside from the fact that there is NO real value in comparing 2016 to today as they are completely different, the biggie in the equation is "approval" ratings.
NO INCUMBENT has ever won re-election with netNEGATIVE approval ratings.
trump is currently at -9
Moreover, even if we were to compare to 2016 - which we shouldn't, but.....if we did, we have to remember this key point:
*BOTH* candidates were UNLIKEABLE -- very poor approval ratings below 50% for each.
Hillary was equally as disliked as trump....yet she won by 3 MILLION votes.
Biden has a *POSITIVE* approval rating and by a substantial margin at that!
Quote Originally Posted by Europa: Can Biden's big polling lead be trusted? https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/11/politics/democrats-stressed-election/index.html Fubah, read the above link. Hillary Clinton had similar size lead, as for Joe Biden at this point, in many polls vs Donald Trump in late October 2016. Michael Smerconish has a strong point that voters turn out is crucial to Biden/Harris campaign. Very good. It may come down once again to the dreaded "October Surprise" Hillary not only had to overcome the Russsians helping trump in Sept/Oct, but then the infamous WikiLeaks and finally the late announcement by James Comey. Her polling dropped to within the margin of error at +3 and she did win the vote by +2. trump needs something like that to knock Bien down. He was *HOPING* it would be the hoax known as the "alleged" Durham Report. But apparently that is not forthcoming, and frankly even if it did, I dispute the level of effect it would ultimately have anyway. He needs something much more devastating. And it's going to be very hard to manufacture some phony allegations that would effectively smear Biden. We have to remember that aside from the fact that there is NO real value in comparing 2016 to today as they are completely different, the biggie in the equation is "approval" ratings. NO INCUMBENT has ever won re-election with netNEGATIVE approval ratings. trump is currently at -9 Moreover, even if we were to compare to 2016 - which we shouldn't, but.....if we did, we have to remember this key point: *BOTH* candidates were UNLIKEABLE -- very poor approval ratings below 50% for each. Hillary was equally as disliked as trump....yet she won by 3 MILLION votes. Biden has a *POSITIVE* approval rating and by a substantial margin at that!
"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by Europa: Can Biden's big polling lead be trusted? https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/11/politics/democrats-stressed-election/index.html Fubah, read the above link. Hillary Clinton had similar size lead, as for Joe Biden at this point, in many polls vs Donald Trump in late October 2016. Michael Smerconish has a strong point that voters turn out is crucial to Biden/Harris campaign. Very good. It may come down once again to the dreaded "October Surprise" Hillary not only had to overcome the Russsians helping trump in Sept/Oct, but then the infamous WikiLeaks and finally the late announcement by James Comey. Her polling dropped to within the margin of error at +3 and she did win the vote by +2. trump needs something like that to knock Bien down. He was *HOPING* it would be the hoax known as the "alleged" Durham Report. But apparently that is not forthcoming, and frankly even if it did, I dispute the level of effect it would ultimately have anyway. He needs something much more devastating. And it's going to be very hard to manufacture some phony allegations that would effectively smear Biden. We have to remember that aside from the fact that there is NO real value in comparing 2016 to today as they are completely different, the biggie in the equation is "approval" ratings. NO INCUMBENT has ever won re-election with netNEGATIVE approval ratings. trump is currently at -9 Moreover, even if we were to compare to 2016 - which we shouldn't, but.....if we did, we have to remember this key point: *BOTH* candidates were UNLIKEABLE -- very poor approval ratings below 50% for each. Hillary was equally as disliked as trump....yet she won by 3 MILLION votes. Biden has a *POSITIVE* approval rating and by a substantial margin at that!
Joe Biden's polling better than any challenger since 1936
A look through history reveals that Biden is in a better position at this point than any challenger since 1936, when the first scientific polls were taken in a presidential race. Indeed, the average of polls has Biden at around 52% or 53%
and up by somewhere between 10 and 11 points.
This is an unprecedented position for a challenger with a mere 23 days to go until Election Day!!
In the 21 previous presidential elections since 1936, there have only been five challengers who led at this time. Of those five, only one (Bill Clinton in 1992) was ahead by more than 5 points. None of those five were earning more than 48% of the vote in the polls.
In short, Biden is the first challenger to be above 50% at this late juncture in the campaign.
Source: https://tinyurl.com/y533jp4d
3
Joe Biden's polling better than any challenger since 1936
A look through history reveals that Biden is in a better position at this point than any challenger since 1936, when the first scientific polls were taken in a presidential race. Indeed, the average of polls has Biden at around 52% or 53%
and up by somewhere between 10 and 11 points.
This is an unprecedented position for a challenger with a mere 23 days to go until Election Day!!
In the 21 previous presidential elections since 1936, there have only been five challengers who led at this time. Of those five, only one (Bill Clinton in 1992) was ahead by more than 5 points. None of those five were earning more than 48% of the vote in the polls.
In short, Biden is the first challenger to be above 50% at this late juncture in the campaign.
In polls, Biden is doing better with seniors than any democrat nominee in 24 years. Traditionally republican, seniors represent nearly 25% of all voters but are more likely to vote than young people. More than any other group, they tend to think the pandemic is an important issue. They trust Biden over Trump on how to handle it. Losing seniors is one reason why Trump probably lose the election.
an often overlooked fact
"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
0
Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson:
In polls, Biden is doing better with seniors than any democrat nominee in 24 years. Traditionally republican, seniors represent nearly 25% of all voters but are more likely to vote than young people. More than any other group, they tend to think the pandemic is an important issue. They trust Biden over Trump on how to handle it. Losing seniors is one reason why Trump probably lose the election.
The Good Guys might gain Kansas and Georgia now, too!
They must win 3 net seats to capture Senate in a tie, with Harris casting deciding vote. But they will likely lose Senate seat in Alabama to Tuberville (R). So the good guys must win 4 other seats to get a Senate tie. Five or six would be better to counter the chances of a rogue Dem Senator demanding unreasonable goodies in return for his/her vote on a closely contested issue. I say they need to win at least 5 seats for that reason.
Democrats are leading significantly in six races with two others a tossup!
+8.0 COLORADO - Gov. Hickenlooper (D) easily over *Gardner +7.0 ARIZONA - Mark Kelly (D) over *Martha McSally in serious trouble! +5.2 N.CAROLINA - Cunningham (D) over *Tillis in serious trouble! +4.0 ...was *TIED* IOWA - Greenfield (D) vs *Joni Ernst in serious trouble! +3.7 MAINE - Sara Gideon (D) over *Susan Collins in serious trouble! +3.0 KANSAS - Barbara Bollier (D) vs Marshall (R) ... newly added
TIED S.Carolina - Jaime Harrison (D) vs Lindsey Graham in serious trouble!
* GEORGIA: Warnock (D) in fair position to unseat Loeffler in January runoff.
- 2.6 MONTANA - Governor Bullock (D) vs *Daines
6
UPDATE: Key Senate races as of October 12
The Good Guys might gain Kansas and Georgia now, too!
They must win 3 net seats to capture Senate in a tie, with Harris casting deciding vote. But they will likely lose Senate seat in Alabama to Tuberville (R). So the good guys must win 4 other seats to get a Senate tie. Five or six would be better to counter the chances of a rogue Dem Senator demanding unreasonable goodies in return for his/her vote on a closely contested issue. I say they need to win at least 5 seats for that reason.
Democrats are leading significantly in six races with two others a tossup!
+8.0 COLORADO - Gov. Hickenlooper (D) easily over *Gardner +7.0 ARIZONA - Mark Kelly (D) over *Martha McSally in serious trouble! +5.2 N.CAROLINA - Cunningham (D) over *Tillis in serious trouble! +4.0 ...was *TIED* IOWA - Greenfield (D) vs *Joni Ernst in serious trouble! +3.7 MAINE - Sara Gideon (D) over *Susan Collins in serious trouble! +3.0 KANSAS - Barbara Bollier (D) vs Marshall (R) ... newly added
TIED S.Carolina - Jaime Harrison (D) vs Lindsey Graham in serious trouble!
* GEORGIA: Warnock (D) in fair position to unseat Loeffler in January runoff.
As senior citizens abandon Trump, Joe Biden spends big on TV ads to build on his growing lead with them
USA TODAY “Among older Americans, it’s a startling drop of support,” said Tim Malloy, Quinnipiac polling analyst, who called the results "a big red flag for the president."
“You might draw the conclusion that they’re disenchanted with the handling of the coronavirus by the president, as are the majority of Americans."
Biden’s push for older voters reflects what one pollster called a "startling" shift in opinion from 2016, when senior voters helped propel Trump to the White House. Trump won seniors by 52% to 45% over Democrat Hillary Clinton. But Biden leads Trump by 8 percentage points – 52% to 44% – among seniors now!
8
As senior citizens abandon Trump, Joe Biden spends big on TV ads to build on his growing lead with them
USA TODAY “Among older Americans, it’s a startling drop of support,” said Tim Malloy, Quinnipiac polling analyst, who called the results "a big red flag for the president."
“You might draw the conclusion that they’re disenchanted with the handling of the coronavirus by the president, as are the majority of Americans."
Biden’s push for older voters reflects what one pollster called a "startling" shift in opinion from 2016, when senior voters helped propel Trump to the White House. Trump won seniors by 52% to 45% over Democrat Hillary Clinton. But Biden leads Trump by 8 percentage points – 52% to 44% – among seniors now!
+3.0 KANSAS - Barbara Bollier (D) vs Marshall (R) ... newly added
KANSAS - Democrats haven't won a Senate seat here since 1932, so this theoretically should be an easy one for Republicans to hold. But GOP Rep. Roger Marshall, whose primary victory over Kris Kobach relieved Republicans, isn't providing much relief in the final stretch of the campaign. Instead, national GOP groups are having to spend on his behalf, while Democrat Barbara Bollier raised nearly $13 million in the third quarter! She began October with a whopping $7.6 million compared to Marshall's $1.7 million. One recent poll has Bollier ahead +3 and another poll behind by 3.
5
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
UPDATE: Key Senate races as of October 12
+3.0 KANSAS - Barbara Bollier (D) vs Marshall (R) ... newly added
KANSAS - Democrats haven't won a Senate seat here since 1932, so this theoretically should be an easy one for Republicans to hold. But GOP Rep. Roger Marshall, whose primary victory over Kris Kobach relieved Republicans, isn't providing much relief in the final stretch of the campaign. Instead, national GOP groups are having to spend on his behalf, while Democrat Barbara Bollier raised nearly $13 million in the third quarter! She began October with a whopping $7.6 million compared to Marshall's $1.7 million. One recent poll has Bollier ahead +3 and another poll behind by 3.
The Good Guys might gain Kansas and Georgia now, too!
They must win 3 net seats to capture Senate in a tie, with Harris casting deciding vote. But they will likely lose Senate seat in Alabama to Tuberville (R). So the good guys must win 4 other seats to get a Senate tie. Five or six would be better to counter the chances of a rogue Dem Senator demanding unreasonable goodies in return for his/her vote on a closely contested issue. I say they need to win at least 5 seats for that reason.
Democrats are leading significantly in six races with two others a tossup!
+8.0 COLORADO - Gov. Hickenlooper (D) easily over *Gardner +7.0 ARIZONA - Mark Kelly (D) over *Martha McSally in serious trouble! +5.2 N.CAROLINA - Cunningham (D) over *Tillis in serious trouble! +4.0 ...was *TIED* IOWA - Greenfield (D) vs *Joni Ernst in serious trouble! +3.7 MAINE - Sara Gideon (D) over *Susan Collins in serious trouble! +3.0 KANSAS - Barbara Bollier (D) vs Marshall (R) ... newly added
TIED S.Carolina - Jaime Harrison (D) vs Lindsey Graham in serious trouble!
* GEORGIA: Warnock (D) in fair position to unseat Loeffler in January runoff.
- 2.6 MONTANA - Governor Bullock (D) vs *Daines
looks real bad for rump lickers to hold the senate
"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
4
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
UPDATE: Key Senate races as of October 12
The Good Guys might gain Kansas and Georgia now, too!
They must win 3 net seats to capture Senate in a tie, with Harris casting deciding vote. But they will likely lose Senate seat in Alabama to Tuberville (R). So the good guys must win 4 other seats to get a Senate tie. Five or six would be better to counter the chances of a rogue Dem Senator demanding unreasonable goodies in return for his/her vote on a closely contested issue. I say they need to win at least 5 seats for that reason.
Democrats are leading significantly in six races with two others a tossup!
+8.0 COLORADO - Gov. Hickenlooper (D) easily over *Gardner +7.0 ARIZONA - Mark Kelly (D) over *Martha McSally in serious trouble! +5.2 N.CAROLINA - Cunningham (D) over *Tillis in serious trouble! +4.0 ...was *TIED* IOWA - Greenfield (D) vs *Joni Ernst in serious trouble! +3.7 MAINE - Sara Gideon (D) over *Susan Collins in serious trouble! +3.0 KANSAS - Barbara Bollier (D) vs Marshall (R) ... newly added
TIED S.Carolina - Jaime Harrison (D) vs Lindsey Graham in serious trouble!
* GEORGIA: Warnock (D) in fair position to unseat Loeffler in January runoff.
- 2.6 MONTANA - Governor Bullock (D) vs *Daines
looks real bad for rump lickers to hold the senate
The Good Guys might gain Kansas and Georgia now, too!
They must win 3 net seats to capture Senate in a tie, with Harris casting deciding vote. But they will likely lose Senate seat in Alabama to Tuberville (R). So the good guys must win 4 other seats to get a Senate tie. Five or six would be better to counter the chances of a rogue Dem Senator demanding unreasonable goodies in return for his/her vote on a closely contested issue. I say they need to win at least 5 seats for that reason.
Democrats are leading significantly in six races with two others a tossup!
+9.0 COLORADO - Gov. Hickenlooper (D) easily over *Gardner +8.1 ARIZONA - Mark Kelly (D) over *Martha McSally in serious trouble! +4.2 N.CAROLINA - Cunningham (D) over *Tillis in serious trouble! +4.0 IOWA - Greenfield (D) vs *Joni Ernst in serious trouble! +4.5 MAINE - Sara Gideon (D) over *Susan Collins in serious trouble! +2.0 KANSAS - Barbara Bollier (D) vs Marshall (R)
TIED S.CAROLINA - Jaime Harrison (D) vs Lindsey Graham in serious trouble!
* GEORGIA: Warnock (D) in fair position to unseat Loeffler in January runoff
- 2.6 MONTANA - Governor Bullock (D) vs *Daines
1
UPDATE: Key Senate races as of October 18
The Good Guys might gain Kansas and Georgia now, too!
They must win 3 net seats to capture Senate in a tie, with Harris casting deciding vote. But they will likely lose Senate seat in Alabama to Tuberville (R). So the good guys must win 4 other seats to get a Senate tie. Five or six would be better to counter the chances of a rogue Dem Senator demanding unreasonable goodies in return for his/her vote on a closely contested issue. I say they need to win at least 5 seats for that reason.
Democrats are leading significantly in six races with two others a tossup!
+9.0 COLORADO - Gov. Hickenlooper (D) easily over *Gardner +8.1 ARIZONA - Mark Kelly (D) over *Martha McSally in serious trouble! +4.2 N.CAROLINA - Cunningham (D) over *Tillis in serious trouble! +4.0 IOWA - Greenfield (D) vs *Joni Ernst in serious trouble! +4.5 MAINE - Sara Gideon (D) over *Susan Collins in serious trouble! +2.0 KANSAS - Barbara Bollier (D) vs Marshall (R)
TIED S.CAROLINA - Jaime Harrison (D) vs Lindsey Graham in serious trouble!
* GEORGIA: Warnock (D) in fair position to unseat Loeffler in January runoff
Four million Latino adults and 600,000 Latino children got coverage under Obamacare, but gains began reversing when Trump took office and are exacerbated by coronavirus job losses.
Latinos gained the most under the Affordable Care Act after it was enacted in 2010, with about 4 million adults and 600,000 children obtaining health care coverage by 2016.
As more people lose health insurance, the cost and the availability of coverage are top-tier issues for Hispanics this election cycle. Latinos rank it even ahead of jobs and the economy and place more importance on it than they did about this time in 2016.
“Latinos are going to the polls keeping health care in mind and their experience with Covid in mind and voting for change for their health and well-being,” said Alberto Gonzalez, senior policy strategist at UnidosUS, a Latino civil rights organization.
0
trump hemorrhaging Latino votes!
Four million Latino adults and 600,000 Latino children got coverage under Obamacare, but gains began reversing when Trump took office and are exacerbated by coronavirus job losses.
Latinos gained the most under the Affordable Care Act after it was enacted in 2010, with about 4 million adults and 600,000 children obtaining health care coverage by 2016.
As more people lose health insurance, the cost and the availability of coverage are top-tier issues for Hispanics this election cycle. Latinos rank it even ahead of jobs and the economy and place more importance on it than they did about this time in 2016.
“Latinos are going to the polls keeping health care in mind and their experience with Covid in mind and voting for change for their health and well-being,” said Alberto Gonzalez, senior policy strategist at UnidosUS, a Latino civil rights organization.
trump hemorrhaging Latino votes! Four million Latino adults and 600,000 Latino children got coverage under Obamacare, but gains began reversing when Trump took office and are exacerbated by coronavirus job losses. Latinos gained the most under the Affordable Care Act after it was enacted in 2010, with about 4 million adults and 600,000 children obtaining health care coverage by 2016. As more people lose health insurance, the cost and the availability of coverage are top-tier issues for Hispanics this election cycle. Latinos rank it even ahead of jobs and the economy and place more importance on it than they did about this time in 2016. “Latinos are going to the polls keeping health care in mind and their experience with Covid in mind and voting for change for their health and well-being,” saidAlberto Gonzalez, senior policy strategist at UnidosUS, a Latino civil rights organization.
rump cant afford to lose any votes
he already lost the last election popular vote by 3 million
educated women r abandoning rump as r the military and now the latinos
"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
trump hemorrhaging Latino votes! Four million Latino adults and 600,000 Latino children got coverage under Obamacare, but gains began reversing when Trump took office and are exacerbated by coronavirus job losses. Latinos gained the most under the Affordable Care Act after it was enacted in 2010, with about 4 million adults and 600,000 children obtaining health care coverage by 2016. As more people lose health insurance, the cost and the availability of coverage are top-tier issues for Hispanics this election cycle. Latinos rank it even ahead of jobs and the economy and place more importance on it than they did about this time in 2016. “Latinos are going to the polls keeping health care in mind and their experience with Covid in mind and voting for change for their health and well-being,” saidAlberto Gonzalez, senior policy strategist at UnidosUS, a Latino civil rights organization.
rump cant afford to lose any votes
he already lost the last election popular vote by 3 million
educated women r abandoning rump as r the military and now the latinos
In Kentucky U.S. senate race, Amy McGrath is trailing Mitch McConnell by 10 points. What will be the chances of McGrath upsetting the Grim Reaper in Nov. 3? Probably not very promising, but sometime a heavy underdog does bark pretty hard.
1
In Kentucky U.S. senate race, Amy McGrath is trailing Mitch McConnell by 10 points. What will be the chances of McGrath upsetting the Grim Reaper in Nov. 3? Probably not very promising, but sometime a heavy underdog does bark pretty hard.
Very good.
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