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UPDATE: 'Race for the White House'

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Posted: #176

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Taking a look at the Senate races to Sept 25:   The good guys are 3 net seats short of a 50/50 split in the Senatewhich they would effectively control with tie votes cast by Kamala Harris.Dems likely lose a seat in ruby-red Alabama to popular Tuberville.Thus, DEMS must win 4 others. Here's how those other key SENATE races are shaping up: +8.0 ...no change COLORADO - Gov. Hickenlooper (D) over *Gardner +6.0 ...was +5.2 MAINE - Sara Gideon (D) over outdated *Susan Collins +5.5 ...was +6.7 ARIZONA - Mark Kelly (D) over loser *Martha McSally +4.2 ...was +3.6 N.CAROLINA - Cunningham (D) over *Tillis+2.0 ...was *TIED* IOWA - Greenfield (D) vs *Joni Ernst - 0.5  S.Carolina - Jaime Harrison (D) vs Lindsey Graham ** NEWLY ADDED - 1.6  MONTANA - Governor Bullock (D) vs *Daines- 1.0  KANSAS - Bollier (D) vs Marshall (R)

Amy McGrath is a long shot to defeat Mitch McConnell, aka Grim Reaper. But on the woman reproductive rights and health care struck down, McGrath may give Reaper a run for his money. 

Go, Amy! clover  

 
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Posted: #177

The Rock, Dwayne Johnson, endorses Biden/Harris. Says he has never publicly endorsed any presidential and vice presidential candidates before, but he is endorsing Biden and Harris today.

  

 
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Posted: #178

Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

The Rock, Dwayne Johnson, endorses Biden/Harris.

Says he has never publicly endorsed any presidential and vice presidential candidates before,

but he is endorsing Biden and Harris today.

 

the rock   rocks !! thumbs_up

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Posted: #179

Trump: I have half of a trillion dollars for the black community!

Biden: Anybody got the number to the publicist for The Rock?

an_roll_laugh

 
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Posted: #180

Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

The Rock, Dwayne Johnson, endorses Biden/Harris. Says he has never publicly endorsed any presidential and vice presidential candidates before, but he is endorsing Biden and Harris today.

Another one for the good guys! thumbs_up

The fascist/racist pres is hemoraging voters, sometimes in large groups of 489.

 
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Posted: #181

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by Europa: The Rock, Dwayne Johnson, endorses Biden/Harris. Says he has never publicly endorsed any presidential and vice presidential candidates before, but he is endorsing Biden and Harris today. Another one for the good guys! The fascist/racist pres is hemoraging voters, sometimes in large groups of 489.

 

add former repo governor tom ridge

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Posted: #182

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

September 23, end of day:

Biden's lead  increased slightly ... again !

+6.6 ...was +6.5  Biden/Harris   at RealClearPolitics
+6.5 ...was +6.2  Biden/Harris   at 270towin
+7.0 ...was +6.8  Biden/Harris   at FiveThirtyEight

 

September 28, mid-day:

Biden's lead  increased slightly ... again !

+6.7 ...was +6.6  Biden/Harris   at RealClearPolitics
+6.8 ...was +6.5  Biden/Harris   at 270towin
+7.0 ...was +7.0  Biden/Harris   at FiveThirtyEight

 
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Posted: #183

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

September 28, mid-day:

Biden's lead  increased slightly ... again !

+6.7 ...was +6.6  Biden/Harris   at RealClearPolitics
+6.8 ...was +6.5  Biden/Harris   at 270towin
+7.0 ...was +7.0  Biden/Harris   at FiveThirtyEight

this is what rump luvrs call  "winning "   lol  an_light

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #184

Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

 

September 28, mid-day:

Biden's lead  increased slightly ... again !

+6.7 ...was +6.6  Biden/Harris   at RealClearPolitics
+6.8 ...was +6.5  Biden/Harris   at 270towin
+7.0 ...was +7.0  Biden/Harris   at FiveThirtyEight

 

 

this is what rump luvrs call  "winning "   lol 

Yes.  

LOSING   is what the supporters of the racist/fascist president call "winning"  an_dance

 
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Posted: #185

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:

 

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

 

September 28, mid-day:

Biden's lead  increased slightly ... again !

+6.7 ...was +6.6  Biden/Harris   at RealClearPolitics
+6.8 ...was +6.5  Biden/Harris   at 270towin
+7.0 ...was +7.0  Biden/Harris   at FiveThirtyEight

 

 

this is what rump luvrs call  "winning "   lol 

 

 

 

Yes.  

LOSING   is what the supporters of the racist/fascist president call "winning" 

  an_roll_laughhahahahahahaha

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #186

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

September 28, mid-day:

Biden's lead  increased slightly ... again !

+6.7 ...was +6.6  Biden/Harris   at RealClearPolitics
+6.8 ...was +6.5  Biden/Harris   at 270towin
+7.0 ...was +7.0  Biden/Harris   at FiveThirtyEight

 

UPDATE,  October 1:

Biden's lead  increased slightly ...  yet again !

+6.8 ...was +6.7  Biden/Harris   at RealClearPolitics
+7.1 ...was +6.8  Biden/Harris   at 270towin
+7.2 ...was +7.0  Biden/Harris   at FiveThirtyEight

 
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Posted: #187

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Taking a look at the Senate races to Sept 25:

The good guys are 3 net seats short of a 50/50 split in the Senate
which they would effectively control with tie votes cast by Kamala Harris.
Dems likely lose a seat in ruby-red Alabama to popular Tuberville.
Thus, DEMS must win 4 others.

Here's how those other key SENATE races are shaping up:

+8.0 ...no change COLORADO - Gov. Hickenlooper (D) over *Gardner

+6.0 ...was +5.2 MAINE - Sara Gideon (D) over outdated *Susan Collins

+5.5 ...was +6.7 ARIZONA - Mark Kelly (D) over loser *Martha McSally

+4.2 ...was +3.6 N.CAROLINA - Cunningham (D) over *Tillis

+2.0 ...was *TIED* IOWA - Greenfield (D) vs *Joni Ernst

- 0.5  S.Carolina - Jaime Harrison (D) vs Lindsey Graham ** NEWLY ADDED an_light
- 1.6  MONTANA - Governor Bullock (D) vs *Daines
- 1.0  KANSAS - Bollier (D) vs Marshall (R)

 

Senate races as of OCTOBER 1:

 

The Good Guys improve further in 4 races!

+8.0 ...no change COLORADO - Gov. Hickenlooper (D) over *Gardner

+6.2 ...was +6.0 MAINE - Sara Gideon (D) over outdated *Susan Collins

+6.0 ...was +5.5 ARIZONA - Mark Kelly (D) over loser *Martha McSally

+5.0 ...was +4.2 N.CAROLINA - Cunningham (D) over *Tillis

+3.0 ...was *TIED* IOWA - Greenfield (D) vs *Joni Ernst

- 0.5  S.Carolina - Jaime Harrison (D) vs Lindsey Graham ** NEWLY ADDED an_light
- 1.6  MONTANA - Governor Bullock (D) vs *Daines
- 1.0  KANSAS  -  Bollier (D) vs Marshall (R)

 

 

 
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Posted: #188

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Senate races as of OCTOBER 1:

 

The Good Guys improve further in 4 races!

+8.0 ...no change COLORADO - Gov. Hickenlooper (D) over *Gardner

+6.2 ...was +6.0 MAINE - Sara Gideon (D) over outdated *Susan Collins

+6.0 ...was +5.5 ARIZONA - Mark Kelly (D) over loser *Martha McSally

+5.0 ...was +4.2 N.CAROLINA - Cunningham (D) over *Tillis

+3.0 ...was *TIED* IOWA - Greenfield (D) vs *Joni Ernst

- 0.5  S.Carolina - Jaime Harrison (D) vs Lindsey Graham ** NEWLY ADDED an_light
- 1.6  MONTANA - Governor Bullock (D) vs *Daines
- 1.0  KANSAS  -  Bollier (D) vs Marshall (R)

most shocking is harrison is a very strong challenge to linsey

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Posted: #189

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Senate races as of OCTOBER 1:

 

The Good Guys improve further in 4 races!

+8.0 ...no change COLORADO - Gov. Hickenlooper (D) over *Gardner

+6.2 ...was +6.0 MAINE - Sara Gideon (D) over outdated *Susan Collins

+6.0 ...was +5.5 ARIZONA - Mark Kelly (D) over loser *Martha McSally

+5.0 ...was +4.2 N.CAROLINA - Cunningham (D) over *Tillis

+3.0 ...was *TIED* IOWA - Greenfield (D) vs *Joni Ernst

- 0.5  S.Carolina - Jaime Harrison (D) vs Lindsey Graham ** NEWLY ADDED an_light
- 1.6  MONTANA - Governor Bullock (D) vs *Daines
- 1.0  KANSAS  -  Bollier (D) vs Marshall (R)

most shocking is harrison is a very strong challenge to linsey

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #190

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

UPDATE,  October 1:

Biden's lead  increased slightly ...  yet again !

+6.8 ...was +6.7  Biden/Harris   at RealClearPolitics
+7.1 ...was +6.8  Biden/Harris   at 270towin
+7.2 ...was +7.0  Biden/Harris   at FiveThirtyEight

 

NBC NEWS

From a practical standpoint, Trump is at least temporarily unable to campaign —
-  an ironic reversal of fortunes after he spent months bashing
Joe Biden for wearing a mask in public and refusing to hold rallies.

Now, it is Biden who is free to campaign and Trump who is essentially locked in his house.

 

 
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Posted: #191

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Battleground states update, September 15:

From "270towin" polls monitoring site:
https://tinyurl.com/yamph8b3

**Note: Biden needs only to win any 3 of these,
... or only 2 states if one of them is Florida.

 

TRUMP MUST WIN SIX of these at least !

+0.5 trump, Georgia

virtual TIE, OHIO
virtual TIE, N.Carolina
+2.0 Biden, Florida
+4.0 Biden, Arizona
+4.8 Biden, Pennsylvania (has DEM Governor)
+6.0 Biden, Wisconsin   (elected DEM Governor in 2018) an_light
+6.2 Biden, Michigan    (elected DEM Governor in 2018) an_light

 

Battleground states update, October 2:

 

From "270towin" polls monitoring site:
https://tinyurl.com/yamph8b3

**Note: Biden needs only to win any 3 of these,
... or only 2 states if one of them is Florida.

 

TRUMP MUST WIN  SIX  of these  at least !

+1.0   Biden, Georgia

+1.0   Biden, N.Carolina

+1.5   Biden, Florida

+2.0   Biden, OHIO

+2.5   Biden, Arizona

+6.0  Biden, Pennsylvania

+6.1  Biden, Michigan   (elected DEM Governor in 2018) an_light

+6.3  Biden, Wisconsin   (elected DEM Governor in 2018) an_light

 
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Posted: #192

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

NBC NEWS

From a practical standpoint, Trump is at least temporarily unable to campaign —
-  an ironic reversal of fortunes after he spent months bashing
Joe Biden for wearing a mask in public and refusing to hold rallies.

Now, it is Biden who is free to campaign and Trump who is essentially locked in his house.

true  irony

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Posted: #193

Fivethirtyeight estimates 80% probability of Biden winning electoral college.  90% probability of winning popular vote.  Overall, fivethirtyeight tends to be right more often than not in years of analyzing elections.

 
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Posted: #194

Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson:

Fivethirtyeight estimates 80% probability of Biden winning electoral college.  90% probability of winning popular vote.  Overall, fivethirtyeight tends to be right more often than not in years of analyzing elections.

Whoa, that's high.  an_wink

I had him at only 50% because I am still waiting for adolf to deliver his "October Surprise" to steal the election from Biden.

 
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Posted: #195

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Battleground states update, October 2:

 

From "270towin" polls monitoring site:
https://tinyurl.com/yamph8b3

**Note: Biden needs only to win any 3 of these,
... or only 2 states if one of them is Florida.

 

TRUMP MUST WIN  SIX  of these  at least !

+1.0   Biden, Georgia

+1.0   Biden, N.Carolina

+1.5   Biden, Florida

+2.0   Biden, OHIO

+2.5   Biden, Arizona

+6.0  Biden, Pennsylvania

+6.1  Biden, Michigan   (elected DEM Governor in 2018) an_light

+6.3  Biden, Wisconsin   (elected DEM Governor in 2018)

so now all the swing states r  leaning biden not just most of them but all

no way rump wins 6 of those

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Posted: #196

 

Significant movement in Swing states!

Sunday,October 4:

 

From "270towin" polls monitoring site:
https://tinyurl.com/yamph8b3

**Note: Biden needs only to win any 3 of these,
... or only 2 states if one of them is Florida.

 

trump MUST WIN  SIX  of these  at least !

+0.5   Biden, Georgia ....down a half point

+0.5   Biden, N.Carolina ....down a half point

+1.0   Biden, OHIO ....down one point

+4.5   Biden, Florida  ... UP 3 points! an_light

+4.5   Biden, Arizona  ... UP 2 points! an_light

+4.0  Biden, Pennsylvania ....down 2 points an_light

+6.2  Biden, Michigan  

+6.3  Biden, Wisconsin 

 
 
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Posted: #197

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

UPDATE,  October 1:

Biden's lead  increased slightly ...  yet again !

+6.8 ...was +6.7  Biden/Harris   at RealClearPolitics
+7.1 ...was +6.8  Biden/Harris   at 270towin
+7.2 ...was +7.0  Biden/Harris   at FiveThirtyEight

UPDATE,  October 4:

Biden's lead  increased slightly ...  yet again !

+7.0 ...was +6.8  Biden/Harris   at RealClearPolitics
+7.3 ...was +7.1  Biden/Harris   at 270towin
+7.4 ...was +7.2  Biden/Harris   at FiveThirtyEight

 

 
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Posted: #198

Real clear politics has electoral map with 226 for Biden to 125 for Trump with 187 in tossups mostly favoring Biden.  Princeton election consortium forecasts 354 electoral votes for Biden when 270 is needed to win.  Average of 35 presidential forecasts give Biden 80% chance to win with average of 332 electoral votes.

 
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Posted: #199

Huge rise for Biden since debate!

 

UPDATE,  October 6:

Biden's lead  increased slightly ...  yet again !

+9.0 ...was +7.0  Biden/Harris   at RealClearPolitics
+8.3 ...was +7.3  Biden/Harris   at 270towin
+8.0 ...was +7.4  Biden/Harris   at FiveThirtyEight

 
 
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Posted: #200

In polls, Biden is doing better with seniors than any democrat nominee in 24 years.  Traditionally republican, seniors represent nearly 25% of all voters but are more likely to vote than young people.  More than any other group, they tend to think the pandemic is an important issue.  They trust Biden over Trump on how to handle it.  Losing seniors is one reason why Trump probably lose the election.

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