Don't second guess yourself. Stay with the over trend on MNF. This game will go over. The Pats will let Cassell throw the ball this week and he'll get a couple scores. Two bad secondaries should lead to lots of points.
Thinking about a parlay with Broncos +3.
Denver +3 and Over 48
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Don't second guess yourself. Stay with the over trend on MNF. This game will go over. The Pats will let Cassell throw the ball this week and he'll get a couple scores. Two bad secondaries should lead to lots of points.
ima like'n the under in this one. i just got that gut feeling it's 20-13 mnf over is a fluke not enough big time players to produce pts like that. did pretty good this sunday tenn,buff,st lou,chi,hou+nyg.i will be collecting tomorrow...
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ima like'n the under in this one. i just got that gut feeling it's 20-13 mnf over is a fluke not enough big time players to produce pts like that. did pretty good this sunday tenn,buff,st lou,chi,hou+nyg.i will be collecting tomorrow...
I know Denver's defense is pretty bad but this line looks awfully high to me. Especially for a NE team that is struggling with Cassel. Fans might not be up for this one with all the focus on the Red Sox.
I'll take the points here. I'd probably take Denver at a pick.
Leanin Under
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I know Denver's defense is pretty bad but this line looks awfully high to me. Especially for a NE team that is struggling with Cassel. Fans might not be up for this one with all the focus on the Red Sox.
I'll take the points here. I'd probably take Denver at a pick.
I'll take the points here. I'd probably take Denver at a pick.
Leanin Under
The majority of the public is with you at over 65% on DEN and the under at 60%- but the over under goes from 46.5 to 48.5. I'll take NE and the over.
Belichek knows he won't win this game with defense against the high powered DEN offense. He will pull out all stops to have a good offensive performace despite Cassell. Even if Moss has started to mail it in- don't think he will want to do that at home with the nation looking- he should have a good performance. That is unless it is a lost cause from the beginning which in NE don't think it will be.
I'll take the unpopular pick with NE and the Over(well that one usually isn't that unpopular). GLTA
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Quote Originally Posted by DtotheP:
I'll take the points here. I'd probably take Denver at a pick.
Leanin Under
The majority of the public is with you at over 65% on DEN and the under at 60%- but the over under goes from 46.5 to 48.5. I'll take NE and the over.
Belichek knows he won't win this game with defense against the high powered DEN offense. He will pull out all stops to have a good offensive performace despite Cassell. Even if Moss has started to mail it in- don't think he will want to do that at home with the nation looking- he should have a good performance. That is unless it is a lost cause from the beginning which in NE don't think it will be.
I'll take the unpopular pick with NE and the Over(well that one usually isn't that unpopular). GLTA
I like the Denver Broncos in this game. The matchups don't favor New England at all. Brandon Marshall is a beast and Eddie Royal is no joke. They are going to rape New England secondary along with strong playcalling from one of the best in the business Mr. Shanahan. Also on top of that Jay Cutler is very on good playaction and throwing on the run. I just don't trust any quaterback for New England other then Mr.Brady. He cover up alot of weakness for his team and it is showing like a sore thumb. Also Champ Bailey will contain Randy Moss from getting off and no running game sounds like a bad day at the office for Mr.Belichick and company. Also I notice the homedogs have been covering the last few weeks.
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I like the Denver Broncos in this game. The matchups don't favor New England at all. Brandon Marshall is a beast and Eddie Royal is no joke. They are going to rape New England secondary along with strong playcalling from one of the best in the business Mr. Shanahan. Also on top of that Jay Cutler is very on good playaction and throwing on the run. I just don't trust any quaterback for New England other then Mr.Brady. He cover up alot of weakness for his team and it is showing like a sore thumb. Also Champ Bailey will contain Randy Moss from getting off and no running game sounds like a bad day at the office for Mr.Belichick and company. Also I notice the homedogs have been covering the last few weeks.
Matt Cassell could only hang "10 points on San Diego" and everybody think's he can out score Denver's offense? N.E. will keep this very simple for Cassell and will try to control the clock and keep Denver's offense off the field. N.E. WILL NOT win in a shoot out with this team!!! I'll take the 3 points with Denver and the under. To many weapons for Cutler, and Cassell not ready for prime time!!!!!
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Matt Cassell could only hang "10 points on San Diego" and everybody think's he can out score Denver's offense? N.E. will keep this very simple for Cassell and will try to control the clock and keep Denver's offense off the field. N.E. WILL NOT win in a shoot out with this team!!! I'll take the 3 points with Denver and the under. To many weapons for Cutler, and Cassell not ready for prime time!!!!!
just a thought here but from what I remember the pats have a hard time stopping the run , last year teams knew how to cover the spreads but usig the running game Denver is all about the run arn't they
denver her +3 and the under
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just a thought here but from what I remember the pats have a hard time stopping the run , last year teams knew how to cover the spreads but usig the running game Denver is all about the run arn't they
Great weekend; went 9-3 overall and just missed on a couple of those losses (f**k Alabama for not showing up in 2nd half!!)
Liking Denver in this game b/c:
1. They run an aggressive offensive game plan which will continually put pressure on the aging Pats defense - especially their highly suspect secondary. Teams that are committed to attacking i.e. Chargers, Dolphins seem to have success as the Pats are now forced into a commitment to ball control in order to minimize the mistakes of Cassell and the possessions of the other team.
2. Not convinced the Pats can score enough points to keep up with any team once the score gets over 21-24 pts (not including the horrendously coached 49ers). The cracks on the offensive side of the ball are evident as they are struggling to throw the ball with any consistency whch will only further enable teams to load up against the run. Althnough the Denver defense is highly questionable, they have always had a scheme under Shanahan that emphasizes attacking linebackers which I feel will allow the Broncos to neutralize their attack.
3. History, in this case, is the greatest distraction when assessing the game at hand. DONT BE FOOLED!! This is not the same Pats team of the early 2000's; while Belichik is a great coach, he (like any other coach) is dependent upon personnel and they just don't have it right now. Game planning can only go so far to mask the inadequecies of a team which is inferior at the critical skill positions i.e. quarterback, defensive back.
Liking:
Denver +3
Under 48.5 - Denver will be good for 27-31 pts in this one but what about the Pats??? I just don't see them holding up their end of the bargain in this one.
6PT Teaser: Denver +9 / Under 54.5
Look forward to feedback - GLTA
W8LIFTER - been following you specifically for a good 5-6 weeks and my compliments to your capping. Off the top of my head it seems like you are hitting in the high 60 - low/mid 70 % of your picks. Keep kicking ass and takin names - seeing you on Denver makes me feel even better about my pick.
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Great weekend; went 9-3 overall and just missed on a couple of those losses (f**k Alabama for not showing up in 2nd half!!)
Liking Denver in this game b/c:
1. They run an aggressive offensive game plan which will continually put pressure on the aging Pats defense - especially their highly suspect secondary. Teams that are committed to attacking i.e. Chargers, Dolphins seem to have success as the Pats are now forced into a commitment to ball control in order to minimize the mistakes of Cassell and the possessions of the other team.
2. Not convinced the Pats can score enough points to keep up with any team once the score gets over 21-24 pts (not including the horrendously coached 49ers). The cracks on the offensive side of the ball are evident as they are struggling to throw the ball with any consistency whch will only further enable teams to load up against the run. Althnough the Denver defense is highly questionable, they have always had a scheme under Shanahan that emphasizes attacking linebackers which I feel will allow the Broncos to neutralize their attack.
3. History, in this case, is the greatest distraction when assessing the game at hand. DONT BE FOOLED!! This is not the same Pats team of the early 2000's; while Belichik is a great coach, he (like any other coach) is dependent upon personnel and they just don't have it right now. Game planning can only go so far to mask the inadequecies of a team which is inferior at the critical skill positions i.e. quarterback, defensive back.
Liking:
Denver +3
Under 48.5 - Denver will be good for 27-31 pts in this one but what about the Pats??? I just don't see them holding up their end of the bargain in this one.
6PT Teaser: Denver +9 / Under 54.5
Look forward to feedback - GLTA
W8LIFTER - been following you specifically for a good 5-6 weeks and my compliments to your capping. Off the top of my head it seems like you are hitting in the high 60 - low/mid 70 % of your picks. Keep kicking ass and takin names - seeing you on Denver makes me feel even better about my pick.
I think this is one of those cases where the public has figured out the Patriots. Most have dropped some cash on them, like recent years, that they figured was guaranteed money and were disappointed. Last year it didn't matter what the spread was, the linesmakers couldn't set it high enough.
I think the Pats defense shows a little pride in this game at home and plays better than expected but the offense will look like a real turd. If NE gets down early, fans should be out of this one because they have been spoiled for the last 6 seasons. If Maroney plays and can get it going, I could be in trouble but this guy has issues.
Best value in my mind is Broncos ML. This game could get ugly.
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I think this is one of those cases where the public has figured out the Patriots. Most have dropped some cash on them, like recent years, that they figured was guaranteed money and were disappointed. Last year it didn't matter what the spread was, the linesmakers couldn't set it high enough.
I think the Pats defense shows a little pride in this game at home and plays better than expected but the offense will look like a real turd. If NE gets down early, fans should be out of this one because they have been spoiled for the last 6 seasons. If Maroney plays and can get it going, I could be in trouble but this guy has issues.
Best value in my mind is Broncos ML. This game could get ugly.
mbanglaw - WOW!! Pretty stellar weekend; is your strategy as simple as that - just bet against "Joe Public"? I agree that when it seems too simple i.e. Dallas yesterday then you fade the popular picks, most of which are made by people who just want to ride every favorite. That said, how does NE win? Please give some real insight b/c all signs point toward a long night for Cassell & Co. Think about this: Broncos scored 39 against the same team that the Pats couldn't do sh*t against all day AND gave up 30. Good barometer and you'd better believe that the Chargers were just as fired up for each game - one against a rival and one w/their backs against the preverbial wall. Looking @ Denver's last two games not really the best barometer since Tampa's D is one of the league's most fierce and the Jags also have a great squad. Look @ NE's D - one of the worst in the league against top offenses and gives up yards aplenty through the air - Denver's strong suit.
Just some food for thought - getting 3pts on a game that the Broncos should win straight up is a good deal. Also, I agree that "the public" often errs on the wrong side but this shouldn't skew assessing the situation at hand on the field b/c sometimes the facts are so obvious that even the casual fan/bettor can see it. What's that saying: Even the sun shines on a dog's ass every once in a while?
Good luck
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mbanglaw - WOW!! Pretty stellar weekend; is your strategy as simple as that - just bet against "Joe Public"? I agree that when it seems too simple i.e. Dallas yesterday then you fade the popular picks, most of which are made by people who just want to ride every favorite. That said, how does NE win? Please give some real insight b/c all signs point toward a long night for Cassell & Co. Think about this: Broncos scored 39 against the same team that the Pats couldn't do sh*t against all day AND gave up 30. Good barometer and you'd better believe that the Chargers were just as fired up for each game - one against a rival and one w/their backs against the preverbial wall. Looking @ Denver's last two games not really the best barometer since Tampa's D is one of the league's most fierce and the Jags also have a great squad. Look @ NE's D - one of the worst in the league against top offenses and gives up yards aplenty through the air - Denver's strong suit.
Just some food for thought - getting 3pts on a game that the Broncos should win straight up is a good deal. Also, I agree that "the public" often errs on the wrong side but this shouldn't skew assessing the situation at hand on the field b/c sometimes the facts are so obvious that even the casual fan/bettor can see it. What's that saying: Even the sun shines on a dog's ass every once in a while?
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