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Denver at New England (10/20/2008)

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Posted: #51
Here is why you play the UNDER in tonight's game. Remember teams and DEF usually step up on MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL. And the OVER trend will come to end at some point. This over is much higher than the last 3 - 4 Monday night games as well.
 
Only 2 times in the last 10 games these two teams have played has the number gone over the current O/U of 48.5. Neither of those games were in NE. Now, I must admit these are different teams from past years but I still like under 48.5 here. Not sure I have a play for the game.
 
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Posted: #52
WinsNow - you think the Broncos lose because Jay Cutler is diabetic?  That is disease discrimination and I won't stand for it.
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by DtotheP:

WinsNow - you think the Broncos lose because Jay Cutler is diabetic?  That is disease discrimination and I won't stand for it.

Dtothep...

Please don't get me wrong - I had exprienced that "Diabetic" myself - I am in borderline now...I know how is felt about this disease....

 

 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by mbanglaw:

Yup - that's it - when 60% of public is on one side, I'll take the other.  Especially if they're on the road team.  

Off the bye week, New England comes prepped, wins by 6.

What bye week? Please post accurate information. I was leaning towards the PATS but because of your post I may just take DENVER on ML.

 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by mbanglaw:

Yup - that's it - when 60% of public is on one side, I'll take the other.  Especially if they're on the road team.  

Off the bye week, New England comes prepped, wins by 6.

since when is NE off a by?!?! Sunday night football last week vs. SD. Denver and the under..you can take that to the bank

 
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Posted: #56
wait a minute... yeah what bye week?  they had a bye week before san fran.  last week the got their a$$ kicked by the Chargers.
 
Good lookin out Fpronk...
 
Broncos will be buckin
 
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Posted: #57
i take denver (+3) the pats will struggle again; cassell has to improve a lot and the lost against the chargers last week, they won't recover this week.
 
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Posted: #58
FPronk - I completely agree with you about the O/U.  Posted total is very high and, once again, how are the Pats going to hold up their end of the scoring??  Look @ their scoring outputs: 17 (Chiefs), 19 (Jets), 13 (Dolphins), 30 (49ers), 10 (Chargers).  So basically, they don't score and are even worse vs. good teams!  The only team they did ANYTHING against was the 49ers and they may be (along w/the Seahawks and/or Bengals) be the worst team in the league.  Final Score: 27 - 13 : O/U hits and the Broncos cover rather easily.  Pats are, undoubtedly, in for a tough year that is only going to get more difficult as it progresses and will serve to further expose the weaknesses of the current defensive personnel and the lack of offensive continuity w/out Tom Brady.  The more I look @ this game, the more obvious it seems.  Cutler's gonna carve up the Pats like a Halloween pumpkin! 
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by W8LIFTER:

Denver Broncos +3

Which tout are you following blindly on this one Writeuplifter? I recall when you got in trouble for cutting and pasting their writeups! So now you just go without a writeup since you are clueless! You are a JOKE!

Keep on following Cowherd weekly and posting the exact same plays in CFB! Then keep on trying to act like your sorry ass doesn't.

Also keep on trying to say I am YOUR bk alias! I am sure that os you trying to create something for atttention.

 
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Posted: #60
To WinsNow99 and all my amigos here trying to prosper:
 
This lesson I had to learn the hard way: Don't, don't, don't, DON'T handicap games under the "they need this game more" or "sense of urgency" philosophy.  Over the course of time, this will bite you over and over.  Yes, there will be the occasional "must-win" game that the team in desparate need will prevail.  But, I assure you that this will result in many more losses than victories and even greater frustration when the team that "had to win" doesn't and simultaneously flushes their season and your money down the toilet.  How many games did the Mets "have to have" to conclude this baseball season?  What about the Broncos two seasons ago?  What about the Browns @ the end of last year losing to a horrible Bengals team to miss out on a playoff spot? What about the Vikings losing against a pathetic Cardinals team a few years ago on the last day of the season to miss the playoffs?  What about the NUMEROUS, NUMEROUS times we have seen talented teams and/or teams at the crossroads of their season in various sports go in the tank inexplicably and lose those "must-win" games that they "absolutely had to have"?  Assess the teams, the matchups, the trends and you will have a greater degree of success than trying to determine who wants it more.  Professional athletes rarely pack it in (see Lions, Raiders yesterday) and tend to be professional and view all the games as "must-win".  Am I saying this never happens? NO!  But, after using this as a handicapping tool and getting bitten too many times, I finally decided to avoid using this as a determining factor and have found my bankroll staying fatter.
 
Good luck to all (especially the Bronco backers tonight!)
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by Efelson76:

The more I look @ this game, the more obvious it seems.

Most times the games that seem that most obvious end up having the most shocking result. See the New York Jets yesterday. I wouldn't be totally shocked if Denver rolls in this game either, but they are not coming in playing their best football. They are 1-2 in their last 3 games, and their last road game was a 33-19 loss to the lowly Kansas City Chiefs, who I think may be one of the worst three teams in football. New England needs this game much more than Denver does, as the Bills are pulling away in the East while the rest of West teams are struggling. New England loves seeing everyone doubt them, and Bellicheck will use that to motivate his team to a victory tonight. Both these defenses stink, but New England's is slightly better, so expect them to win a high scoring game 34-27.
 
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Posted: #62
The Denver BRONCOS..... ARE....
 
The 3rd worst defense in the league....
 
They are allowing an average of 137.5 rush yards per game....
 
They are allowing an average of  255.5 pass yards per game....
 
They are allowing an average of 25.7 points per game....
According to ESPN.COM3
 
This year on the Road, Denver has played Oakland week 1 and KC week 4....
 
They scored 19 on the road against KC, and gave up over 200 yards and 2tds on the ground....
 
With that being said the DENVER BRONCOS are a dominant home football team....
 
However they have gone in to Foxboro with BRADY and beat the Pats on more than 1 occassion....
 
I think the poor Pats secondary, combined with the Denvers poor defense, combined with the Broncos great offense, combined with MNF prime time, combined with 6-0 OVER on MNF... that this game will go in the...
 
OVER
 
 
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by pauli579:

Which tout are you following blindly on this one Writeuplifter? I recall when you got in trouble for cutting and pasting their writeups! So now you just go without a writeup since you are clueless! You are a JOKE!

Keep on following Cowherd weekly and posting the exact same plays in CFB! Then keep on trying to act like your sorry ass doesn't.

Also keep on trying to say I am YOUR bk alias! I am sure that os you trying to create something for atttention.

W8LIFTER seems to have solid picks over the time I have seen them and his insight seems solid although he didn't post any for this game.

Additionally, why waste time (yours or others) bashing/criticizing/calling other out? It doesn't help you make money and doesn't spur the type of information and insight sharing that will maximize the effectiveness of this post and fatten up all our bankrolls. Cool?

So what do you think about tonight and why?

 
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Posted: #64
Okay - my bad.  Bye week or not, still going with the PATS.
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by Efelson76:

To WinsNow99 and all my amigos here trying to prosper:
 
This lesson I had to learn the hard way: Don't, don't, don't, DON'T handicap games under the "they need this game more" or "sense of urgency" philosophy.  Over the course of time, this will bite you over and over.  Yes, there will be the occasional "must-win" game that the team in desparate need will prevail.  But, I assure you that this will result in many more losses than victories and even greater frustration when the team that "had to win" doesn't and simultaneously flushes their season and your money down the toilet.  How many games did the Mets "have to have" to conclude this baseball season?  What about the Broncos two seasons ago?  What about the Browns @ the end of last year losing to a horrible Bengals team to miss out on a playoff spot? What about the Vikings losing against a pathetic Cardinals team a few years ago on the last day of the season to miss the playoffs?  What about the NUMEROUS, NUMEROUS times we have seen talented teams and/or teams at the crossroads of their season in various sports go in the tank inexplicably and lose those "must-win" games that they "absolutely had to have"?  Assess the teams, the matchups, the trends and you will have a greater degree of success than trying to determine who wants it more.  Professional athletes rarely pack it in (see Lions, Raiders yesterday) and tend to be professional and view all the games as "must-win".  Am I saying this never happens? NO!  But, after using this as a handicapping tool and getting bitten too many times, I finally decided to avoid using this as a determining factor and have found my bankroll staying fatter.
 
Good luck to all (especially the Bronco backers tonight!)

I 100% agree with this post..... NEVER bet for teams that NEED A WIN.... is that to say that the other team DOESN"T NEED a WIN as bad????  is that to say that one team is TRYING HARDER???? I think every team every week goes out an needs to win the game....... unless the team has clinched the playoffs everyteam plays hard every week.....

Another DON'T to add to this is DON"T BET THE REVENGE FACTOR....

When the Broncos go to play SD in SD.... everyone is going to say that SD is gonna get back at DENVER because of the ED HOCHULI CALL.... that is just BS.... watch it will be the front topic on COVER.COM lol

 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by Go_Terps49:


New England needs this game much more than Denver does, as the Bills are pulling away in the East while the rest of West teams are struggling. New England loves seeing everyone doubt them, and Bellicheck will use that to motivate his team to a victory tonight. Both these defenses stink, but New England's is slightly better, so expect them to win a high scoring game 34-27.

Where do those points come from????

Pats scoring outputs: 17 (Chiefs), 19 (Jets), 13 (Dolphins), 30 (49ers), 10 (Chargers).  So basically, they don't score and are even worse vs. good teams!  The only team they did ANYTHING against was the 49ers and they may be (along w/the Seahawks and/or Bengals) be the worst team in the league. 

I respect your opinion but all the motivation in the world is only going to go so far with inferior personnel and matchups that favor the Broncos.  Just look at what the Pats have done so far THIS YEAR, not the last few years, but THIS YEAR.  Broncos can score, Pats can't.  Broncos (and especially Shanahan) have proven they can win in Foxboro.  Take the 3 or you'll watch Cassel throw your  away with each incompletion and the ancient Pats secondary  your bet tonight with every time they get

 
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Posted: #67
i hope you all take NE so i can pound Denver. small play on over 48.5. Many prior season trends are irrelevant, same coaches but different players. Cassell ill get sacked silly, and i hope they get Sammy running because NE has yet to break 100 rushing yds a game this season. more opportunity for Cutler to throw wild and force Cassell to thrwo to catch up.

Denver ML (1 units)
Denver +3 (3 units)
Over (1 unit)
Denver + over (2 units)
 
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Posted: #68
even the brownies can put up points on MNF.  watch NE do it also.  NE + over,  NE + over tease,  NE + over parlay.  you could even tease denver and over that should hit also.  GLTA
 
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Posted: #69
HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS (SINCE 2001)
Denver leads 5-1
Sep 24, 2006 DEN 17, NWE 7
Jan 14, 2006 DEN 27, @NWE 13
Oct 16, 2005 DEN 28, @NWE 20
Nov 3, 2003 DEN 26, @NWE 30
Oct 27, 2002 DEN 24, NWE 16
Oct 28, 2001 DEN 31, @NWE 20
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by BreakaBookie:

HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS (SINCE 2001)
Denver leads 5-1
Sep 24, 2006 DEN 17, NWE 7
Jan 14, 2006 DEN 27, @NWE 13
Oct 16, 2005 DEN 28, @NWE 20
Nov 3, 2003 DEN 26, @NWE 30
Oct 27, 2002 DEN 24, NWE 16
Oct 28, 2001 DEN 31, @NWE 20

Isn't that awesome how Jake Plummer had New Englands number. Does that mean the trend stays the same with Jay Cutler? I guess we have to wait and see. I do know Shanahan has won the coaching battle in this one.

 

 
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Posted: #71
denver rools here boys, NE HAS NOT SHOT, NO SHOT I TELL YA.
 
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Posted: #72
don't forget denver going to the east coast!!!
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by DALJEET:

denver rools here boys, NE HAS NOT SHOT, NO SHOT I TELL YA.

It posts like these that make me want to take New England.

 
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Posted: #74
Break - thanks bro. Assuming you are on the right side w/Broncos.  What do you think about O/U? I'm liking the under b/c of the Pats offensive ineptitude.  I just don't see a shootout happening w/1 team that simply can't score.  I think that Chargers v. Pats game is one of the best tools of evaluation for this game and I see tonight following a very similar script.  And I'm getting 3???? Wow - what a gift.  I think it's the trap but from a slightly different angle - try and make everyone question why Broncos are +3, then say "Well, this is the Pats w/ Belichik... blah,blah,blah... OK, guess I had better bet on the favorite (and flush my $$$ down the tubes)".  Well, not me bro - riding the Broncos hard, taking the under as NO, NO, NO NFL defense just goes week in and week out without ever showing up - this is the Broncos time to show up (especially against a struggling Pats team).  How do most dynasties end? They end ugly and with a thud.  Pats backers: get out of the way or you and your  will be under the falling piano that is this year's version of the Patriots.
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by BreakaBookie:

SHANAHAN ALWAYS OUTCOACHES BELICHECK DURING THESE MATCHUPS....
 
Denver was beating Brady for years...... except for one game when Belicheck purposely safetyed the ball... anyone remember that??? one of the best coaching moves I have ever seen
 
that was a HUGE win for me....
 
anyway.................................................................
 
MNF over is 6-0....... Ive been preaching and winning and preaching and winning........
 
MNF = OVER
i remember that game i won alot on that one also
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