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Denver at New England (10/20/2008)

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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by Clark3232:

Pats-3
Over 48.5


After I saw the "FULL FIVE STARS"  attached with your ID; Now -I HAVE NO DOUBT ABOUT  New England & OVER... I am feeling good about my picks tonight!
GOOD LUCK TO US!
 
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Posted: #102
I have already placed a bet for UNDER 48.5, but I am leaning on riding the short bus with Matt Cassel and Bill Belichik. I'm not sure why everyone is so confident that Denver will roll into New England and beat them. I had Seattle plus 11.5 yesterday when everyone and their mother was pounding Tampa. Back door cover or not its cash in my pocket.
 
Do you really think NE wants to lose another game at home on national TV? Look at TENN and their great QB situation, or what about Flacco and Baltimore...the QB's are not that good, but they ran the crap out of the ball and played good D and got the W yesterday.
 
Matt Cassell is well coached at NE and I expect him to make few errors tonight and throw short 5-9 yards pass plays and for New England to run the ball and slow the game down.
 
Right now I see the game being won by NEW ENGLAND 23 - 17.
 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by Boston3Party:

NoDogs-

This is not going to be a shootout by any means.  New England is going to pound the running game and have Matt throw screens and slants/short curls all game.  New England will probably have 20 3rd downs in this game...but they will be 3rd and short.  They will try to sustain long clock chewing drives and keep Denver's offense off the field.  Sammy Morris will have a great game and I think Wes Welker will have 10+ receptions for 100+ yards.  Belichik is a mastermind at producing a gameplan and now that Matt has a few games under his belt, he can adjust it to be suitable for him.  Crowd will be up for this game and New England will cover...not in a shootout fashion.  Wish you all a great night and BOL 


I never said it would be shoot out so not sure how you drew that inference. I do agree that Belichick will run the clock as much as possible, but i think it's presumptuous to say that NE will "pound" the running game - again, they have yet to record 100 rushing yds a game this entire season, their running game is in shambles and i doubt they'll "establish" this tonight.

Bottom line is no matter how much they try to run the clock, Cutler will put up points against their secondary when he IS out there, there is NO pressure whatsoever on Cutler (i.e. 2 sacks this season) which is DANGEROUS and gives him time in pocket to throw. The only reason Denver loss to Jags were three crucial turnovers and horrible ref calls, plus Jags actually have decent defense. NE's corner O'Neal let Rivers complete more than three 40+ yd passes on him - even Hobbs has 5 inch height disadvantage covering Marshall on the right side so i dont' know what you mean, Royal will be returning and is definitely a viable threat regardless of not being 100%.

Pittman is a veteran and can establish a better threat than Sammy (Pittman put up 100+ rushing yds in last wks loss against Jags as starter in lieu of Selvin Young). He's a veteran and can make big plays, throwing NE defense out of wack - NE has no heart after their leader left. Cassell is no leader, he wasn't even a starter in college or High school, and this is his 5th NFL start, i definitely don't think that is enough "games under his belt". Belichick is great coach but you can't coach a HS QB into an NFL starter in 5 games. Moss gives about 25% effort when he's not getting the perfect throw (trust me, I'm from MN and that's what he did with the Vikes). If NE manages to squek out the win, it'll be because Cassell is actually targeting Moss and Denver straight out makes many turnovers, though i see this as very unlikely.


GL w/e you may choose, it will be a good game though.

 
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Posted: #104
NoDogs :: Denver has one of the WORST defense's in the league...hands down. Cutler is going to have a hard time in Gillete Stadium tonight with the crowd the NE D will create turnovers. Do you live in Colorado? You sound a lot like a homer.
 
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Posted: #105
Under 48.5, going to buck the MNF over trend right here and now.
 
Pats 24, Broncs 20
 
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Posted: #106
Ok, I couldn't sit silent any longer. I've been lurking this site for well over three years and have seen many good cappers come and go. Now the amount of good cappers are severly outbalanced by the number of pickers and "gut-bettors". These threads used to be full of tons of useful information I would use to help suppliment my own picks, now all I see is garbage with a couple of good points sprinkled in.
 
How many of you were on the Colts yesterday? 80% of the public was, not me...Same thing with the Raiders, Panthers, and how about TCU on thursday or Hawaii on friday?. Sometimes it does work out though, case in point Chicago(65%+), Giants(75%+), Titans(75%).
 
I just can't sit by and let people keep picking the under in this game. I know all about the MNF Over trend and have road it all year, but that has no sway on my judgement tonight.
 
Let's look at the facts, one awful defense who's achilles heel is the running game vs. one defense with a strong but aging front seven who's achilles heel is their secondary. Both teams bad defenses play to the strengths of the others offense. These are not your momma's Pats or Broncos, the Broncos defense is absolutely atrocious as is the Pats secondary.
 
I haven't gotten my lines from my book yet, but im going Over as long as it's in the 48 range. I'm up 20 units this week so far(unit is only $50 for me) so im going 4 units on the over tonight.
 
As far as the game, its 60/40 Broncos with public money, and I'm sure my book will have nothing but Broncos plays from all the locals. I just can't help but think the line favors the Pats in this one. Vegas is baiting people in to picking the Broncos, it's so blatantly obvious. The way the Pats played last week they should be home dogs! not giving 3 points to a team thats clearly better(@ home). I took this same advice to the bank this week when picking the Packers, Raiders and Panthers @ home.
 
So it's Over 48 big for me, and probably a New England -3/Over parlay
 
 
 
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Posted: #107
NEW ENGLAND -3
 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by Philly215:

Under 48.5, going to buck the MNF over trend right here and now.
 
Pats 24, Broncs 20

After review, that last touchdown doesn't count.

Final Score: Pats 17 Broncos 20

 
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Posted: #109
Lot of fellow Ohio cappers here

Pronk - let's get paid bro
 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by Boston3Party:

Lot of fellow Ohio cappers here

Pronk - let's get paid bro

I'm in the Cleveland area...Browns have been good to me the last two weeks.

GOOD LUCK!  It should be a good game.

 
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Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by Fpronk:

NoDogs :: Denver has one of the WORST defense's in the league...hands down. Cutler is going to have a hard time in Gillete Stadium tonight with the crowd the NE D will create turnovers. Do you live in Colorado? You sound a lot like a homer.


Fpronk, i am definitely not from Colorado (MN actually) but i watch a lot of football. NE crowd? If you haven't noticed or been watching any games, you must've mistaken the BOOOO's for cheers. i never said Denver was going to stop NE, i know they have horrible defense, but can NE exploit that? No. that's why i stated offense is the key here, and hands down DEN>NE. The only reason NE is getting -3 is home field advantage, and they def don't have that considering Miami trumped them at Gilette. NE D create turnovers? Highly doubtful considering Den's Oline has only allowed 2 SACKS this WHOLE season - that's great pass protection. Maybe you should reread my thread above (along with ESPN, NFL, CBS Sports among the few or maybe watch the highlights) about how Rivers handpicked NE's secondary.

Like i said, nothing is a guarantee in the NFL, but odds strongly favor Den with points in my book.

GLA
 
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Posted: #112

Quote Originally Posted by NoDogs:



Fpronk, i am definitely not from Colorado (MN actually) but i watch a lot of football. NE crowd? If you haven't noticed or been watching any games, you must've mistaken the BOOOO's for cheers. i never said Denver was going to stop NE, i know they have horrible defense, but can NE exploit that? No. that's why i stated offense is the key here, and hands down DEN>NE. The only reason NE is getting -3 is home field advantage, and they def don't have that considering Miami trumped them at Gilette. NE D create turnovers? Highly doubtful considering Den's Oline has only allowed 2 SACKS this WHOLE season - that's great pass protection. Maybe you should reread my thread above (along with ESPN, NFL, CBS Sports among the few or maybe watch the highlights) about how Rivers handpicked NE's secondary.

Like i said, nothing is a guarantee in the NFL, but odds strongly favor Den with points in my book.

GLA

Oh, I must have missed that game when I took the SUPER CHARGERS. I'm sure you knew SD was going to beat them to a pulp to only travel to Buffalo to score 14. I don't need to watch or read opinions from ESPN, CBS, or FOX. Nor do I need to know that ACCUSCORE.COM even has NE favored in this match up. The boo's you heard were from the beating they took from Miami. The crowd WILL play a factor in tonight's game. Its MNF bro throw all trends out the window. That was then and this is now. I have all my picks posted and documented on threads and keep them on an excel spreadsheet as well.

I am 17 - 7 (71%) on NFL Straight wagers and 23 - 13 (64%)  if you include parlays and teasers Last Monday I had CLE +8.5, CLE ML and ML parlayed with the OVER and I plan on winning tonight. GL 2 U!

 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by Fpronk:

I have already placed a bet for UNDER 48.5, but I am leaning on riding the short bus with Matt Cassel and Bill Belichik. I'm not sure why everyone is so confident that Denver will roll into New England and beat them. I had Seattle plus 11.5 yesterday when everyone and their mother was pounding Tampa. Back door cover or not its cash in my pocket.
 
Do you really think NE wants to lose another game at home on national TV? Look at TENN and their great QB situation, or what about Flacco and Baltimore...the QB's are not that good, but they ran the crap out of the ball and played good D and got the W yesterday.
 
Matt Cassell is well coached at NE and I expect him to make few errors tonight and throw short 5-9 yards pass plays and for New England to run the ball and slow the game down.
 
Right now I see the game being won by NEW ENGLAND 23 - 17.


Definitely agree that NE will slow the game down by running but Sammy is no #1 RB. That said, NE defense doesn't remotely compare to Tennesse and/or Tampa bay. Losing Asante Samuel has had a HUGE impact on NE defense, again, if you watch any of the past few games, NE is playing with no heart. their players are half-assing just about every play and not protecting Cassell (19 SACKS this season, that in less that 5 games!)

again, i'm not saying anything is a guarantee, but i like to research the facts and throw them out there, esp when there is real $ on the line. there are definitely legitimate arguments for NE as well, i just don't see them outweigh those for Denver's.
 
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Posted: #114
crowd will be subdued because of the red sox loss  im taking denver
 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by Boston3Party:

NoDogs-

This is not going to be a shootout by any means.  New England is going to pound the running game and have Matt throw screens and slants/short curls all game.  New England will probably have 20 3rd downs in this game...but they will be 3rd and short.  They will try to sustain long clock chewing drives and keep Denver's offense off the field.  Sammy Morris will have a great game and I think Wes Welker will have 10+ receptions for 100+ yards.  Belichik is a mastermind at producing a gameplan and now that Matt has a few games under his belt, he can adjust it to be suitable for him.  Crowd will be up for this game and New England will cover...not in a shootout fashion.  Wish you all a great night and BOL 

Good analysis although I don't agree w/your side.  I do think you're on the $$ w/the UNDER. Once again, for all the over riders - where are all these points from the Pats coming from??? They've played worse teams than Denver (which has yet to gel on D but has talent) and haven't been able to score!!! Is Cassell suddenly going to morph into a great decision maker who makes tonight the 1st in which he doesn't turn the ball over? Is this suddenly the game where all the 2nd rate and injured backs for NE start ripping off chunks of yardage? Are the backers and 2ndary players suddenly going to find the fountain of youth? These are very valid points which not only apply to the O/U (but are most prevalent) but the side as well. 

Just ask yourself these questions: What has New England done THIS YEAR to indicate anything different from what we have seen through the 1st 5 weeks?  What is going to happen to change the Pats fortunes 180 degrees? Is Vegas setting a trap or just setting a line which suckers those last stragglers who still think this is the NE dynasty of years past into taking the home team at a short price? 

Receivers are only as good as their trigger man - see the Bengals or the Cardinals under Matt Leinart!! Last time I checked, Shanahan is a helluva coach so don't think he won't have a gameplan formulated to expose the multiple weaknesses by the Pats.

So....... Denver +3, Denver ML, Under 48.5  GLTA   

 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by DtotheP:

Regularly without Tom Brady



Actually, even with Cassell at the helm, they still have not lost back to back games.
 
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Posted: #117
DtotheP - you, your girl, or just some picture to distract me every time I post? LOL
 
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Posted: #118
Quote Originally Posted by Fpronk:

Oh, I must have missed that game when I took the SUPER CHARGERS. I'm sure you knew SD was going to beat them to a pulp to only travel to Buffalo to score 14. I don't need to watch or read opinions from ESPN, CBS, or FOX. Nor do I need to know that ACCUSCORE.COM even has NE favored in this match up. The boo's you heard were from the beating they took from Miami. The crowd WILL play a factor in tonight's game. Its MNF bro throw all trends out the window. That was then and this is now. I have all my picks posted and documented on threads and keep them on an excel spreadsheet as well.

I am 17 - 7 (71%) on NFL Straight wagers and 23 - 13 (64%)  if you include parlays and teasers Last Monday I had CLE +8.5, CLE ML and ML parlayed with the OVER and I plan on winning tonight. GL 2 U!



Thanks, that is a great record, GL to u as well
 
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Posted: #119
I made up my mind. I'm going BIG against my team.

BRONCOS +3
 
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Posted: #120
Change of play. I am taking the Patriots -3 1st half and the 1st half under 24, and then I am done.
 
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Posted: #121
Broncos 1H TT 10½   2U
Broncos +3               1U
1st TD Cutler +2000  .1U
 
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Posted: #122

Quote Originally Posted by handicapped:



Actually, even with Cassell at the helm, they still have not lost back to back games.

Give it a couple hours 

 
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Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by Efelson76:

DtotheP - you, your girl, or just some picture to distract me every time I post? LOL

 
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Posted: #124
Added:
Oct 20 2:59pm Football - Pending 140.00 to win 100.00    
  1.  Football Propositions - Monday Night NFL Props October 20, 2008
        Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots
        Marshall vs Moss - most pass receiving yards made
        Brandon Marshall -16½ receiving yrds (-140) [pending]


 
 
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Posted: #125
  • Belecheck is 2-9 vs Denver in his Career
  • New England is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games

Neother defense is playing very well but Denver definately has the better offense. I'm taking Denver and the points.

Denver +3 

 

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