Denver at New England (10/20/2008)

Denver (4-2, 2-4 ATS) at New England (3-2, 2-3 ATS)

Two perennial AFC powers square off at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., when the Broncos take on the Patriots with both teams in need of a victory.

Both squads have lost two of their last three games, with the Patriots falling 30-10 last Sunday night in San Diego as a six-point underdog, while the Broncos were losing 24-17 to the Jaguars as a 3½-point home chalk. Denver is mired in an 0-4 ATS slide, while the Patriots have alternated spread-covers this season.

Denver is putting up 27.7 points and nearly 400 total yards per contest, but it’s been the defense that has dropped the ball for Mike Shanahan’s team, giving up 25.7 points and 394.7 yards per outing. Third-year QB Jay Cutler has put up impressive numbers through six games, with 1,693 passing yards, 12 TDs and five INTs.

Bill Belichick’s defense has given up 89 points in its last three games, including 38 to Miami the last time the Pats were in Foxborough, the result being a 38-13 loss as 12½-point favorites. And without reigning league MVP Tom Brady, New England’s offense isn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard like last season, averaging just 17.8 points and 298 yards per game. QB Matt Cassel has been very shaky in place of Brady, averaging 182 passing ypg with three TDs and four INTs through six contests.

Denver has owned this rivalry lately, winning five of the last six meetings SU and ATS dating back to 2001, including taking the last three by at least eight points. The last time these two met was two seasons ago in New England, when the Broncos earned a 17-7 victory as 6½-point road ‘dogs. Going back to 1997, the Broncos are 7-3 SU and ATS against the Pats, and the straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in those 10 clashes.

Denver is 6-20 SU and 9-16-1 ATS on the road in the Monday night spotlight, while the Patriots are 6-8 SU and 5-8-1 ATS at home.

The Broncos are on ATS slides of 7-22-1 overall, 1-5 on the highway 3-11 against teams with a winning record, 1-5 in October and 1-4-1 against AFC competition. Conversely, the Patriots are 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 after a straight-up defeat and 18-5-1 ATS in their last 24 October outings, but they are on pointspread slides of 2-9 overall, 0-7 at Gillette Stadium, and 2-6 following a non-cover.

The under is 5-2 the last seven times Denver has been on Monday night, but otherwise the Broncos sport “over” streaks of 20-6-1 overall, 7-2 on the road, 12-3 against the AFC, 7-3-1 against teams with a winning record and 10-2-1 following a straight-up loss. On the flip side, New England is on “under” runs of 8-3-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home, 7-1-1 against the AFC and 4-1 following a non-cover.

In head-to-head action between these teams, the over is 7-3 in the last 10 battles overall, but the under has been the play in four of the last five meetings in New England.

Finally, the over is a perfect 7-0 on Monday nights this season.

ATS ADVANTAGE:               DENVER