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Denver at Oakland (12/06/2012)

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Posted: #26
* Oakland +10.5  
 
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Posted: #27
Manning will person out toward the end of the game.

Sorry covers...Thank you..
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by DrDogs:

The doc had the chiefs in the last double digit home underdog adventure. Cant believe there's another one so close together. Put your largest large on OAK!!!! 
There is going to be a blood bath in Oakland........another reason not to watch but like most train wrecks you can't look away!
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:

* Oakland +10.5  
A blind dog could figure out Oaklands offense........Payton Manning has 2 good eyes.
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by DrDogs:

The doc had the chiefs in the last double digit home underdog adventure. Cant believe there's another one so close together. Put your largest large on OAK!!!! 
You wanna bet my "largest large" is bigger than yours? Denver
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

A blind dog could figure out Oaklands offense........Payton Manning has 2 good eyes.
I meant defense......still funny right?
 
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Posted: #32
A blind dog could figure out their offense too......come to think of it! I was right in the first place
 
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Posted: #33
Has anyone noticed that McFadden is going to be back? That has got to help Oak in some capacity. 


 
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Posted: #34

Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

But the number won't rise! These are the Raiders sheeple. How have the Raiders profited you this year?

Double digit DIVISIONAL home underdogs have covered 21 of the last 22 ATS, and the number may rise....

Oakland +10.5

GL

Are you missing the part that states double digit divisional home underdogs have covered 21 of 22...

or in other words, 21-1 ATS...

take Denver if you want to, but you're betting something that has covered less than 5% of the time for less than even money...

GL everyone...

 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by Chiefan34:

Double digit DIVISIONAL home underdogs have covered 21 of the last 22 ATS, and the number may rise....

Oakland +10.5

GL

Are you missing the part that states double digit divisional home underdogs have covered 21 of 22...

or in other words, 21-1 ATS...

take Denver if you want to, but you're betting something that has covered less than 5% of the time for less than even money...

GL everyone...



Trends carry a lot of weight and I respect it. I look at all trends myself before making my picks but sometimes you just have to against the trend and this is the case here. I've made my point on defense and on offense, this isnt the same offense of 2010 and 2011. More like an offense of 2006-2009 with a better QB and a great RB in Mcfadden that cant do garbage. I follow the Raiders year in year out and I am certain if they will get up or lay an egg for a game. 

Raiders will fall 14-0 early in the game. Deja vu

DEN LARGE!
 
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Posted: #36

Quote Originally Posted by rarafromphilly:

I THINK I WILL BUY IT DOWN TO -9.5.

Just my opinion.  Buying down from 10.5 to 9.5 points is a brilliant move (win or lose)!  Like FBI said in above post, "suspicious things" going on with Denver past three games!

 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by ttplaya:

Has anyone noticed that McFadden is going to be back? That has got to help Oak in some capacity. 



Like he did when these two teams met earlier in the year?

Darren McFadden, 13 attempts, 34 yards, 0 TDs, long of 8 yards.

Not too productive if you ask me.  He WASN'T injured in that game just to let you know.  Their run game was completely shut down.  One of the worst run games out of any team this year.  

I guess that they will have some more yardage this game since this time around it's in Oakland.  

He's broken 100+ yards in only 2 games this year.  Other than that he's averaging less than 50 yards a game.  Not the beast he used to be before so I doubt he'll be of a big concern to Denver.  That'll force Palmer to air it out which is bad news with the Bronco's secondary.  

I don't know if this game will cover but as much as I hate to take UNDERS, I'll have to give it serious consideration here.  Can't expect Denver to score 40+ themselves.  


 
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Posted: #38

Quote Originally Posted by 3Fiddy:



Trends carry a lot of weight and I respect it. I look at all trends myself before making my picks but sometimes you just have to against the trend and this is the case here. I've made my point on defense and on offense, this isnt the same offense of 2010 and 2011. More like an offense of 2006-2009 with a better QB and a great RB in Mcfadden that cant do garbage. I follow the Raiders year in year out and I am certain if they will get up or lay an egg for a game. 

Raiders will fall 14-0 early in the game. Deja vu

DEN LARGE!

I'm not saying by any means that a bet on Oakland is a lock, I personally don't see how in the hell they can cover this myself. Let's just say this was a table game like blackjack or pai gow poker, and the odds of you winning your bet were a 65% probability. You wouldn't get up from the table if you lost a hand or two because you win more than you lose in the long run. Now take the same idea and increase the odds of winning by another 30.5%, I may lose one hand but I'm winning at least 21 in return. This game could be the 4.5% loser, but I've already hit once on Kansas City a few weeks back. To me, it's worth the risk on what's been documented as a 95.5% chance of hitting. These don't happen very often, so I try to take advantage when they do. Good luck to you whichever way you pick, get that money!

 
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Posted: #39
I am a die hard Broncos fan & watch every game but I'm just going with the trend here. Double digit DIVISIONAL home underdogs have covered 21 of the last 22. I mean everyone that is saying the Broncos will blow them out from the beginning, have you even watched the Broncos this year?!?!?!? The Broncos are a 2nd half team! During their current 7 game winning streak, they have trailed in 6 of those games & in the first meeting it was only 10-6 at halftime until Denver exploded in the 3rd quarter. John Fox is GREAT at halftime adjustments but the Broncos have played very sluggish in the first half in nearly all their games this year & it is going to catch up with them again like it did in the beginning of the season. Most people thought the Broncos would cover in KC but they didn't because Prater is struggling & missed 2 field goals. With a huge game in Baltimore next week I expect Denver to not take the Raiders as serious as they should. Broncos will definitely win but I got Oakland +10.5 & the under
 
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Posted: #40

Quote Originally Posted by DrDogs:

The doc had the chiefs in the last double digit home underdog adventure. Cant believe there's another one so close together. Put your largest large on OAK!!!! 

I trust in the Doctor here. The books are in a bind here. They know they have to set the line at atleast 10 points because every Joe Public in the world will make Denver as one leg of their 3-game teasers.

I have nothing productive to say about Oakland, other than they are probably the play here. This nationally televised game should be like their Super Bowl. Plus they just lost to the Browns at home. Things can't get much worse.

 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace:

I have nothing productive to say about Oakland, other than they are probably the play here. This nationally televised game should be like their Super Bowl. Plus they just lost to the Browns at home. Things can't get much worse.


I said that about the Chiefs a couple of days before the Belcher mess happened... 

Agree with the analysis though. Oak +10.5 seems like the play. Oakland seems to be the only bad team that really has not shown up and thrown a wrench into things like the Jags, Chiefs and Browns have. They only showed up at home against the Chiefs.

These Thursday games seem to inevitably turn into low scoring, grind em' out games. Even the Atl/NO game turned into somewhat of a slopfest. With Oakland's awful defense, that might not happen here. But I'm willing to role with the handful of trends. I don't see how you can be comfortable laying double digits on the road in any division game anyways.

Oak +10.5
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace:

I trust in the Doctor here. The books are in a bind here. They know they have to set the line at atleast 10 points because every Joe Public in the world will make Denver as one leg of their 3-game teasers.

I have nothing productive to say about Oakland, other than they are probably the play here. This nationally televised game should be like their Super Bowl. Plus they just lost to the Browns at home. Things can't get much worse.

If you check the consensus forum here on covers 71% of the EXPRERT picks are on the side of the Denver spread.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by Chiefan34:

Double digit DIVISIONAL home underdogs have covered 21 of the last 22 ATS, and the number may rise....

Oakland +10.5

GL



A lot of people know about this stat...but shouldn't that PROVE to all of us that the game is rigged? If it was not, no way possible would that record stand. I understand good teams could get lazy or play down to the level of bad teams...but I honestly DON'T believe in "Bad" teams when it comes to pro sports. I think the teams are "acting" and "playing" bad when infact you see explosive games out of nowhere coming from those same teams on "Certain" weeks. 

Is it just me, or is it completely obvious that this sport is 100% rigged?

BTW, Denver would cover the -10.5 if it wasn't rigged. But since it's rigged, I guess Oakland covers this one. Remember last week in the KC/DEN thread I predicted outright what would happen BEFORE the game started? I don't think I was psychic...I predicted KC would take the lead in the game, with T/O's from Peyton Manning...and I saw on replay that's what they friggin did.
 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

I meant defense......still funny right?

How novel-quoting yourself!        The best cappers are not number cappers , but    experts at figuring out the situational side of the game.  Tip your hat to Sammy _ Ace who is one of them guys.  For me, I try and all around approach, and rely on more objective analysis.  Yes Denver- with Manning is quite goods, or at least relative to the rest of the dregs in the AFC West.  The Broncos have wrapped up the division, and have a substantial lead over the division. How hard are they going to play to beat Oakland? Just as hard as it takes, and no more. They are on the road, and against a hostile division opponent. If they don't meet any resistance- they'll crucify Oakland. But if they can win, and escape without any major injuries, then as far as they're concerned a 2 or 5 point win is a win.  AT home the Raiders have  to play their tails off to keep the fans, & owner happy. And they are going to try very hard- somebody has to keep those patrons in the luxury sky boxes happy. This is their SB!  This is your turf- you're better than this- a 10.5 underdog at home. Again- it has to do with player psychology, and not numbers. Anyway  G/L- you're bucking against percentages here!

 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by vue21849:

How novel-quoting yourself!        The best cappers are not number cappers , but    experts at figuring out the situational side of the game.  Tip your hat to Sammy _ Ace who is one of them guys.  For me, I try and all around approach, and rely on more objective analysis.  Yes Denver- with Manning is quite goods, or at least relative to the rest of the dregs in the AFC West.  The Broncos have wrapped up the division, and have a substantial lead over the division. How hard are they going to play to beat Oakland? Just as hard as it takes, and no more. They are on the road, and against a hostile division opponent. If they don't meet any resistance- they'll crucify Oakland. But if they can win, and escape without any major injuries, then as far as they're concerned a 2 or 5 point win is a win.  AT home the Raiders have  to play their tails off to keep the fans, & owner happy. And they are going to try very hard- somebody has to keep those patrons in the luxury sky boxes happy. This is their SB!  This is your turf- you're better than this- a 10.5 underdog at home. Again- it has to do with player psychology, and not numbers. Anyway  G/L- you're bucking against percentages here!

I agree but sometimes the # tells all.I think this one is spot on and see a back door from here.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by vue21849:

How novel-quoting yourself!        The best cappers are not number cappers , but    experts at figuring out the situational side of the game.  Tip your hat to Sammy _ Ace who is one of them guys.  For me, I try and all around approach, and rely on more objective analysis.  Yes Denver- with Manning is quite goods, or at least relative to the rest of the dregs in the AFC West.  The Broncos have wrapped up the division, and have a substantial lead over the division. How hard are they going to play to beat Oakland? Just as hard as it takes, and no more. They are on the road, and against a hostile division opponent. If they don't meet any resistance- they'll crucify Oakland. But if they can win, and escape without any major injuries, then as far as they're concerned a 2 or 5 point win is a win.  AT home the Raiders have  to play their tails off to keep the fans, & owner happy. And they are going to try very hard- somebody has to keep those patrons in the luxury sky boxes happy. This is their SB!  This is your turf- you're better than this- a 10.5 underdog at home. Again- it has to do with player psychology, and not numbers. Anyway  G/L- you're bucking against percentages here!


You're sorely mistaken if you think that Denver is going to play a conservative game just to barely get by with a win. I'll agree that Oakland is playing their Superbowl tomorrow, but don't forget that Denver is playing for a first round bye. Don't expect them to let their foot off the gas.

Two things favor the Raiders.

1. The oft discussed 10+ spread. We all know how those have worked out this year.

2. This is a Thursday night game. Road teams on Thursday are 2-3 ATS ( as favorites) and 6-8 SU

Everything else is in favor of the Broncos.

I'm thinking Woodyard will probably sit this game even though he is listed as questionable. But that shouldn't hurt Denver too badly. And don't expect the return of McFadden to have much of an impact. Right now the line has moved down to -10 and I wouldn't be surprised if it goes down to -9.5 by tomorrow. If that happens, I'm jumping all over this in a LARGE way. But even now I feel it's still a safe bet.

Don't let the double digit spread stat blur all the other facts.
 
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Posted: #47
HAHAHAHAHAHA
RADIERS nation is a dreamer WAITER nation if they think there signing Jon Gruden as a coach
WHO IN HELLS MIND WOULD WANT THAT JOB!
Denver big!
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by XSixburghX:


You're sorely mistaken if you think that Denver is going to play a conservative game just to barely get by with a win. I'll agree that Oakland is playing their Superbowl tomorrow, but don't forget that Denver is playing for a first round bye. Don't expect them to let their foot off the gas.

Two things favor the Raiders.

1. The oft discussed 10+ spread. We all know how those have worked out this year.

2. This is a Thursday night game. Road teams on Thursday are 2-3 ATS ( as favorites) and 6-8 SU

Everything else is in favor of the Broncos.

I'm thinking Woodyard will probably sit this game even though he is listed as questionable. But that shouldn't hurt Denver too badly. And don't expect the return of McFadden to have much of an impact. Right now the line has moved down to -10 and I wouldn't be surprised if it goes down to -9.5 by tomorrow. If that happens, I'm jumping all over this in a LARGE way. But even now I feel it's still a safe bet.

Don't let the double digit spread stat blur all the other facts.
Late money will probably come in on Denver, i think it gets pushed back to 10' .......11 ? 
 
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Posted: #49
Denver 1h ML -300 (risk 4.5 to win 1.50)

Bol 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by vue21849:

How novel-quoting yourself!        The best cappers are not number cappers , but    experts at figuring out the situational side of the game.  Tip your hat to Sammy _ Ace who is one of them guys.  For me, I try and all around approach, and rely on more objective analysis.  Yes Denver- with Manning is quite goods, or at least relative to the rest of the dregs in the AFC West.  The Broncos have wrapped up the division, and have a substantial lead over the division. How hard are they going to play to beat Oakland? Just as hard as it takes, and no more. They are on the road, and against a hostile division opponent. If they don't meet any resistance- they'll crucify Oakland. But if they can win, and escape without any major injuries, then as far as they're concerned a 2 or 5 point win is a win.  AT home the Raiders have  to play their tails off to keep the fans, & owner happy. And they are going to try very hard- somebody has to keep those patrons in the luxury sky boxes happy. This is their SB!  This is your turf- you're better than this- a 10.5 underdog at home. Again- it has to do with player psychology, and not numbers. Anyway  G/L- you're bucking against percentages here!


OMG WHAT IGNORANT DRIVEL !!!! LMFAO!!!! "THIS IS YOUR TURF-BETTER THAN THIS-A 10.5 UNDERDOG AT HOME.AGAIN IT HAS TO DO WITH PLAYER PSYCHOLOGY" ? ??LMFAO!!!!"IF THEY DONT MEET RESISTANCE-THEYLL CRUCIFY OAKLAND" ? LMFAO!!!!!!!DUDE, FOR BEGINNERS THIS FORUM IS ABOUT MAKING MONEY !!! SO WHAT ARE YOU DOING HERE ??? YOU ARE ONE OF THE WORST VUE !!! YOUR COLLEGE PICKS ARE DREADFUL AND YOUR NFL PICKS ARE ABYSMAL !!!  YOUR DATA ? LMFAO!!!!YOUR COMBINED COLLEGE AND NFL PICKS PUTS YOU OVERALL AT 39 % !!! YOUR NFL PICKS ARE AT 44 % !!! DUDE YOURE NO HANDICAPPER,WHO YOU TRYING TO FOOL ??? " I TRY AN ALL AROUND APPROACH AND RELY ON MORE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS" OMG LOSING APPROACH FOR SURE!!!  EVER CROSSED YOUR MIND IF YOU WERE A GOOD HANDICAPPER  AS SOME ARE ON THIS FORUM THAT YOU WOULD NOT BE GETTING  BLASTED FOR YOUR IGNORANCE AND LOSING PICKS ! OMG ARE YOU NEAR SIGHTED ? QUITE A LOSING STREAK YOURE ON DUDE !!!!LIKE HELLO !!!!"YES DENVER-WITH MANNING IS QUITE GOODS" ????? OMG DUDE !!!!NOW FOR THIS GAME ,BEFORE YOU LOOSE ANOTHER 25 CENTS,DO KNOW THAT TIM TEBOW AND BRONCOS CRUSHED CARSON PALMER RAIDERS IN OAKLAND LAST YEAR 38-24 AND OAKLAND LOST BY 10 AT HOME TO BUCANEERS AND BY 21 TO SAINTS AT HOME !!!
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