I told everyone the GMEN were fade material prior to their road game versus the Bengals. My experience in situational betting told me that the game spelt trouble for the Giants. The Giants were recently dominated up front by the Pittsburgh Steelers and playing some lousy football on both sides of the ball. The Bengals, on the other hand, were also reeling and needed to right their ship as they had lost 4 consecutive games (their last two being at home). The Bengals simply needed and wanted it more, and the Giants wanted a bye week to lick their wounds.
Well, this week I am going to zig zag my way back on the Super Bowl Champion Giants. The talk of the town in both the New York and national media has been the "soft" Giant defense and the "dead arm" of Eli Manning. I don't get it, is Eli pitching for the Yankees? This talk has been largely exaggerated, and the bottom line is that its a long season filled with peaks and valleys. The Giants were a bit fatigued and needed to hit the reset button, and the bye week couldn't have come at a better time. Eli actually spent some time with familly in Mississippi, and I'm sure some home cooking did him some good.
I've taken a very close look at the last two matchups between these two teams. The Giants beat down the Packers in Green Bay in the divisional round last year. And the Gmen should have won the regular season matchup at MetLife Stadium in December of last year. There was some controversial officiating in that matchup and it took a last second fg from Mason Crosby for the Pack to win the game 38-35 (Crosby has looked awful lately). In that regular season matchup, Clay Matthews also had a 40 yard pick-6 (I am not sure what his status will be Sunday Night).
Now everyone will talk about the "revenge factor" and the public is going to be all over the underdog Packers for this reason and because the public just loves Aaron Rodgers. I am going to tell you that "revenge" is a highly overrated factor when determining the outcome of a game. Just look at what the Giants did to the 49ers earlier this year. Shouldn't the 49ers have avenged their loss from the NFC Championship Game?? The Giants have also heard Clay Matthews make public comments that Green Bay beat themselves in the playoffs last year, and that they are the better team. Both teams will definitely have something to prove this Sunday. Not to mention, the Giants had a full bye week of listening to how soft their defense is, and how Eli has "a dead arm".
The matchups are far more important in predicting the outcome of this game. The Giants achilles heel, in my opinion, is the middle of their defense (middle linebacker and defensive tackle). Thats why the Steelers had so much success running the ball against them. The Giants defensive line is very athletic, but I think most would agree that they are better pass rushers then they are run-stoppers. Now in come the high flying Packers, with absolutly no running game whatsoever (24th ranked in the league). In fact in the last two matchups, Aaron Rodgers led the team in rushing for both games!!! Are you kidding me Green Bay? That stinks of weakness. With the injury to Cedric Benson, this team has had very little success running the ball, and that is music to the Giants ears. While the Giants secondary is far from an elite unit, the Giants defense would much rather pin their ears back and rush the passer, and take their chances with their average secondary making a play on a ball.
Green Bay will of course also be without the services of Charles Woodson and I have been patiently waiting for an opportunity like this to fade them. I really wanted to take Detroit last week, but I was afraid of the Lions self destructing and beating themselves (which predicatably happened again). I don't see that happening with Tom Coughlin's team coming off the bye this week.
I look for Eli and the Giants offense to get back on track against a depleted Packer defense that will be playing a back-to-back road game. I also think the Giants defense bends, but doesn't break, and creates a couple turnovers against the pass-happy Pack. I also wouldn't be surprised if the Pack get an unexpected dose of the Giants explosive rookie, David Wilson. This bye week might have been a good opportunity for Couglin to work on pass protection with the young back, and I would not pay too much attention to Ahmad Bradshaw's status on the injury report.
I am going large on my hometown GMEN! Lets go BIG BLUE!!!!
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