Houston at Indianapolis (11/01/2010)

Away:  Houston [3-3 ATS]
Home:  Indianapolis [3-2-1 ATS]

Game Time: 8:30 PM
Stadium: Lucas Oil Stadium

Recent Meetings:
09/12/10 - IND 24 vs. HOU 34

Team Leaders:

Houston:
Passing: Matt Schaub (1538)
Rushing: Arian Foster (635)
Receiving: Andre Johnson (488)

Indianapolis:
Passing: Peyton Manning (1916)
Rushing: Joseph Addai (406)
Receiving: Reggie Wayne (602)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

I will preface my post by admitting that I am a bit of a homer; however, I see this game being decided by a FG.  Considering that even David Carr could carve up this Texans' secondary, an initial reaction might be to expect Peyton to throw for 500 yards. 

I actually like Houston +5.5 and under 49.5, and I really like a teaser to +11.5 and under 55.5. 

With the recent play of Derrick Ward, I think the Texans will run the ball 40+ times.  Dallas Clark being out is a big loss.  The Texans need to realize that even when they try to play a safe zone coverage, the secondary is still getting beat.  I would bring more pressure and try to get Peyton's timing off.  That has always been the best way to defend him, make him through a split second before he wants to. 

Colts 24 Texans 20

Indy has been the team in Houston's eyesite for years now.

Houston has what looks like it's best team ever while Indy is having some serious problems for the first time in years.

I'm confident backing the Houston+ML in this one and that is my official selection.

 PAYBACK'S A B*TCH!

INDY  - 5.5   (EXTRA LARGE!)

Quote Originally Posted by dddevin69:

remember this lil stat.. in div games...the loser of the 1st game, covers approx 60% of the time in the rematch.      take Indy  -5.5  and the over 49.5.     STRONG STRONG PLAY.    GAME OF THE WEEK,  not a lock, but darn near close. 

I wouldn't bet the trend blindly, but the last two years (2008-9), they split ATS. In 2007, however, the Colts dominated both games, 2006 split again and 2005 Colts dominated again. Colts have won 15 of the 17 meetings (last 6 meetings decided by 10 points or fewer).  This year, the teams are about even on both sides of the ball, while i don't like betting against Manning, i like the points and Houston here.. GL 

houston +5.5 indy has to many injury's

Houston - 27                            Indianapoils - 23

 Texans +5.5                   over 49.5

Indy not a great revenge team, which makes me like the points here.

In fact I like the Texans to make it two in a row over over Peyton.

Clark and Collie being out is a huge part of the Indy offense missing.  Especially when it comes to the TD's category...9 between the two.  #1 and #2 scoring receivers. 

While it hurts, can the Texans defense lineup and stop Wayne, Garcon, and Gonzales?...doubtfully.  Yet it will be a downgrade that may result in lost points for Indy.  Wanted to jump the over, but now having trouble pulling the trigger.

Houstons running game Foster/Ward will eat the clock while the Colts - Addais is listed as doubtful and not expected to play so expect Manning to air out the ball more than ever.Between the air/ground attacks & injury issues,Leaning Under 50.

This will be the first game since the recent adjustments to the Defensive secondary for Hou and they might actually have a Pass D.Anything is better than what is has been and being tested against Manning right out of the gate, we will certainly find out soon enough.

Should be a good MNF game regardless and I'll wait closer to game time before deciding on the spread.

upset special

texans ml ( + 5.5)

Quote Originally Posted by dddevin69:

remember this lil stat.. in div games...the loser of the 1st game, covers approx 60% of the time in the rematch.      take Indy  -5.5  and the over 49.5.     STRONG STRONG PLAY.    GAME OF THE WEEK,  not a lock, but darn near close. 

oh no Devin-  you had to use the L word in your selection and that pretty much makes me wanna rush to the nearest counter over here on the south side of Vegas and lay straight $ on that Texans moneyline.

i dont care that this is a revenge game for the Colts.  because i know the Texans will be just as pumped up for this game since they've suffered under the wrath of the colts for years.  texans love nothing better than to play the colts and now they get a chance to do the unthinkable- sweep the colts.  the spread is telling us that common perception is that colts get their revenge and beat texans ass.  but flip that coin and i see texans making a serious run for division title and licking their chops at a beatdown / battered colts squad.  no more safety valve ( Dallas Clark ) available for Peyton.  running attack isn't even comparable to houston's running attack.

HOUSTON MONEYLINE

Houston +5.5

Since the start of October I've combined a few systems to get to a 9-5-1 record. Not a lot of picks I know, but they have to fit specifically. Still, 9-5-1 is pretty good. One system is divisional road dogs over a FG. This fits. I also use favorites off of byes, however I only use home favorites off byes if nondivisional. That hits at 65% while favorites off byes at home in divisional matchups are a losing 14-18 due to the first trend I mentioned.