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Houston at Indianapolis (11/01/2010)

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Posted: #51
Lets recap yesterday:

ATS: Favorites 8 vs 4 Underdogs cover the spread.
(using probability my coin says the next flip hit tails so: Houston +5.5 is the corect pick "purely based on probability")

O/U: OVER 5 vs 7 UNDER
(OVER 51 is the correct pick based on probability)

Trends says OVER hit 10-1 in this scenario. + this is Monday Night.

Indy always plays close conference games and win barely by 3 points or so. + indy injuries

Leaning : Houston / OVER

"i just don't know why i can't pull the trigger.."

btw, i am colts fan.
 
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Posted: #52
Houston's last game was on the 12th of October. Colt's on the 17th. Is that correct? If so, Texans have a lot more time to rest and prepare for the air asault cause I don't see a lot of rushing from Colts as they are most likely without Addai.
 
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Posted: #53

Quote Originally Posted by 808pickyboy:

Houston's last game was on the 12th of October.(wrong) Colt's on the 17th. Is that correct? If so, Texans have a lot more time to rest and prepare for the air asault cause I don't see a lot of rushing from Colts as they are most likely without Addai.

My bad. They are both coming off a bye played last on the 17th. Now that kinda puts a little concern as of houston taking this to the bank. I am more than confident on the under though as both defense are rested but also key players on Colt's roster will not be playing.

 
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Posted: #54
Reverse line movement Houston -5.5 to -5 and the OVER still growing..

Final play:
Houston +4 (+107) 1u
OVER 52 (+108) 1u

GLTA
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by Zoopdog7:

This is tough...

I look at a common opponent....The Giants played both teams on their home field...Colts blew them out, Texans got blown out.  That would make me want to lean towards Indy.

But on the other side, Houston already beat Indy, the Colts are missing key players, and conference games are always close.

Having a hard time here. 

Common opponent the NY Giants. Yes the Texans lost that game and Indi won but remember the G-Men did not start playing well till week 4. I believe that Indi played them well before that and Texans did not. Just an observation as I watched almost all of the Giants game who's defense already put out 5 starting QB's.

 
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Posted: #56
Tex +5

under 51
 
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Posted: #57

like houston that they have been playing well lately and that they already proved they can beat indy, yah I know payton is the man, however, the rest of his team is banged up and undersize in terms of nfl.

coupled with both teams coming off a bye the D's should be rested. got the under corect last night but had pit.

like houston, undecided on the total. although leaning on the under.  Thoiughts?

 
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Posted: #58

Quote Originally Posted by WinsNow999:

FYI. Guys..This week had been really bad for Texas teams: Bold are presented the state of Texas.

Baylor 30
Texas 22

Utep       12
Marshall 16

Texas Tech 27
Texas A&M  45.  Note. they would have lost if they play against Oklahoma.

Jacksonville 35
DALLAS      17

TONIGHT GAME ! Houston ????
                           INDIANAPOLIS 34.  FINAL.

Colts will be facing a Texans defend that ranks last in NFL, allowing 411 yards per game. " We are pretty familiar with them, "Manning s Said" We know how important this game it will be".

As for this conclusion; I LIKE COLTS MONEY LINE TONIGHT!

GOOD LUCK ALL

 
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Posted: #59
I am a long time reader of this forum but a new poster. Generally a dime player so don't bet a lot of games, just ones that through research seem a good bet, not always right of course and so far this year I have won 10 and lost 8 so a lot risked to make $120.00, not my best year by a long shot.  I find 2 things fascinating about these threads. One is the posters who immediately put up "under" or "Indy" without even a single bit of reasoning, let alone hyperbole to go with their picks. I can't figure out why people do this, if you have a pick, say why, even if your logic is flawed, at least it lends some legitimacy to your post. The second item is the vast amount of information regarding the spreads, especially when they're below 4. Everyone buying down a 1/2 point here and there and have you ever really looked at how often the spread comes into play? It's not nearly as much as you'd think and you're really better off simply going with the team you think will win and betting them. Again, I'm not talking about huge spreads, just in the 4 to 6 range, do some research and you'll see they don't matter that often.
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by Radiators:

Foster should run all over Colts.
Manning without Clarke and Addai and Colli

 

I agree that losing Clark is big, but replacing Collie and Addai with Gonzalez and either Brown or Hart is almost even.  Colts are a much better team at home, and Texans have been mediocre since Game 1. 

 

Colts-5.5 and Under 51.5

 

 
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Posted: #61
TOTAL UNDER 51.5
 
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Posted: #62

7 pt, 2 play teaser, houston +12.5, over 44,   MONEY

 
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Posted: #63
COLTS -5.5   (BIG!)

GL TO ALL!!
 
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Posted: #64
Easy Easy Easy Easy play tonight.......

Indy -225
 
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Posted: #65

As with my post last night with NO and PITT.

64% is on Indy.....line is at -5.....5.5 in some places....

That is not a good sign.......

Under to me looks like the play...as 80% is on OVER....give me the under......Just like last night.....

Fade the public people!!!

 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by Sandman23:

Easy Easy Easy Easy play tonight.......

Indy -225


You call that easy @-225???
 
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Posted: #67
I look at it like this Indy@ home one reason for indy peyton manning healthy reason 2 Indy D against texas D reason 3 Indy offense even banged up  vs healthy texas offense reason 4 for me its indy LARGE
 
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Posted: #68
Peyton Manning is 9-3 on Monday night games in his career. If you can get the Colts on a spread of 6 or less at home on Monday night against a team that has never beat them twice in a season? COLTS ARE THE PLAY.
 
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Posted: #69

Quote Originally Posted by mleavers2000:

Indy for me. Revenge game coming off the bye week at home. Done deal.

Not a believer in the "revenge" theory!

Houston +5.5

 
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Posted: #70

I originally had NY Giants ML for last Monday Night Football and then I came on here and read some of your guys comments on how the Cowboys need this win so they should cover. A lot of you guys overanalyze and that had me overanalyzing. Stop overanalyzing! Texans suck, Chiefs should of crushed them at home. Colts -5.5 LARGE

 
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Posted: #71
All teases will hit tonight. Indy pk, Hou +10, over 45, under 57.

Final 31-24 colts.

Good luck.

 
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Posted: #72
Has everyone forgotten the speed of the Colts defense against the Giants in a prime time setting? Colts roll, no opinion on the over and under just take the best QB in football to cover the line.
 
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Posted: #73
Took Houston 1st Half +3  Large!!  ***** 
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by Pitt2215:

Texans +5.5

Too many injuries for the Colts here to be giving 5.5 to a very good Texans team.  Texans play well on the road and should be able to keep this game close and maybe even win SU.

    Like Ind.  payback 
 
 
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Posted: #75

Quote Originally Posted by Cgizzle41:

Took Houston 1st Half +3  Large!!  ***** 

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