New England at Indianapolis (11/04/2007)

To djorange007...

If you don’t think that Kevin Faulk is HUGE part of the Patriots offense, than you my friend have not watched many of their games. He plays a critical role in that offense. he may not be a household name (like some of the other guys on the field) but the plays that he makes for NE to help keep the chains moving will definitely play a huge role in the match-up Sunday. (Watch it, and be sure to stop in here afterwards to give me credit for the homework I’ve done on this game).

I didnt say Seau will have a huge impact on this game. Just that he can’t be discounted. If he were being asked to play every snap, you would be right; he'd be useless because of his age. But since he is not a starter, he is only asked to come in and make "situational" plays. When used like that, he is still extremely effective (He has 3 INTs this season. More than ANY Colts player).   

You obviously didn’t watch the AFCCG. Do you know who Ray Mickens, R. Baker, and Eric Alexandra are?? NEITHER DOES ANYONE ELSE!! Those were the guys Indy came back on in the second half of that championship game. I think it is safe to assume they will not be on the field Sunday.

Give me some LEGIT reasons that point to the Colts keeping this close, and prove to me what YOU know about the NFL.

I have laid out more than a few key match-ups which I think NE will exploit. You have come up with "The Colts are great!!" and "You guys are crazy homers" (which im not BTW)... Not a lot of substance there bro.

[Quote: Originally Posted by GoG] ts... the reason that first half doesn't worry me is 1) it wasn't a bad first half, it was a bad first quarter... weren't they up 10 at halftime?  2) i saw Cleveland march the ball up and down the field on NE all day (in their house)... a game that would have ALSO been much closer if not for an int in the endzone on their first drive, and a meaningless fumble return in the last minute of the game that bumped the score up to 17... a score that almost didn't hold up as Cleveland went right down the field and had a couple shots in the endzone to get a last second score...

once again, an example of bringing up one example while ignoring others... let's not forget the Bills were leading the Pats 7-3 well into the second quarter... you explain why that doesn't worry you...

GoG, you sir, are a moron.

YOU Check YOUR stats before you post next time, please.

Indy's was up 10-7 at the half, and they scored the touchdown with less than 2 minutes left in the HALF!  Which would be the second quarter since it seems you need the help.  Carolina threw the INT when they were already up 7-3 midway through the second and they were on the Indy 9 yard line at the time.  This is YOUR team, weren't you watching the game?  The Patriots just pounded the Washington Redskins dicks in the dirt and Indy just struggled against a 43 year old QB.

The Pats were up 20-0 at halftime against Cleveland.  Cleveland marched up and down the field?  The Bills game was 17-7 at halftime. 

Now I know you're a joke and I will ignore you accordingly. 

You are calling all the Pats posters yahoo's but you need to go back and read the useless rah rah sh*t you've been posting.  Don't be mad if Patriots backers are over confident, they have a reason to be, they've watched them play, closely.

Posted by GoG

the reason that first half doesn't worry me is 1) it wasn't a bad first half, it was a bad first quarter... weren't they up 10 at halftime? 

The Patriots were dominating the Colts on both sides of the line in the first half, and that was without being at full strength on D#, and Rache Caldwell as their #1WR.

Posted by GoG

i saw Cleveland march the ball up and down the field on NE all day (in their house)... a game that would have ALSO been much closer if not for an int in the endzone on their first drive, and a meaningless fumble return in the last minute of the game that bumped the score up to 17... a score that almost didn't hold up as Cleveland went right down the field and had a couple shots in the endzone to get a last second score...

A. Their head coach knows the Patriots D# better than any other coach in the league.

B. NE has played in mostly vanilla prevent packages all season long, with the exception of a couple of games. They havnt shown any of the exotic stuff (that Belichick is famous for) yet.  

Posted by GoG

once again, an example of bringing up one example while ignoring others... let's not forget the Bills were leading the Pats 7-3 well into the second quarter... you explain why that doesn't worry you...

Because Buffalo is a scrappy little team, and the game still ended in a 38-7 BLOWOUT.

Posted by GoG

Watson on a LB, while ignoring the same on the other side with Clark on a LB...

The LB Clark would be matched up with (AD Thomas) is capable of taking Clark away (especially if M.Harrison doesnt play). The same cant be said on the Colts side. (Who even plays LB for them?)

The last three times that these teams faced NE was not the highest scoring team in the league. They weren't "running up the score" as the haters say. Brady was not the Leagues leader in just about all of the QB stats that count. We didn't have Randy Moss ( Leads in Yards and TD's ). We didn't have Welker and Stallworth........

Best QB? Brady 

Best WR? Moss

Best Running Back? Addai and Maroney both average 4.8 a carry so that is a Toss up. Maroney would have more TD's if not for injury and the fact that we have the greatest set of WR's ever.

The only aspect of the game they rank better is Rushing. Butonce again, that is due to our WR's being who they are.

Not opinions. This is all based on #'s.....

Seriously GoG, stop talking about this Browns game.  You have mentioned it about 15 times and honestly, you have posted on here about 100 times.  Get a life, and a job, because after you blow your bank account on the colts this weekend, you are certainly gonna need it.

Pats -6 now.  Public now on the Pats at 88% strong (obviously 12% Colts).  Like I stated earlier, I believe this line moves to -7 before game time to get the late Colt money, which is happening right now.  Pats ML at -260 (36%), Colts at +220 (64% public favored).  People are getting great value for taking the Colts at +220, but I think that is what Vegas wants people to think.  Maybe they think that people will take Colts ML for +220 instead of Colts +6 or +7 because of the payout, therefore creating more value for the Pats at -6 or -7.  I am a Colts fan, but I just don't think that they win this game.  Also, like I said earlier, I think the Pats win by 9 or more in this game, so that 7 point spread will just make people think "well a TD is a lot, I'll take the Colts".   It just looks like a TD, and "a TD is too many points to give to the Colts" (what most people are thinking), thinking like that gets a lot of Colts backers.  I think this game is O.K to wait on, even if it goes to -7, but to be safe in case of a backdoor cover pass to Marvin Harrison (haha) take it now at -6.  I took the Pats at -5.5, but not a HUGE play because I want to win the money, but I would like the Colts to win (I hate rooting against a team I have money on) so that ESPN will stop talking about them 24/7 and maybe talk a little bit about the undefeated reigning superbowl champions, like it's only fair.

GL

now, after all this talk, it turns out this game lost much of it's luster, at least if Harrison can't go, or can't be effective...

here's why: going to break this game down... which nobody else really has (not much, anyway)...

IF Harrison were in the game, the Colts offense can put the Pats into a situation that neutralizes their strength at LB, forcing them into a nickel package... despite this belief that the Pats are invulnerable, they actually are very vulnerable when a team can spread them out and force them into nickel packages... the weakness of this team is in the secondary, where they are not that fast and not that big... with Harrison (Marvin, that is) in, they can effectively line up 3 wideouts, with Clark over the middle... this forces the Pats to either stay in their 3 LB package and get mismatched by the wideouts... or go into a nickel package and get mismatched by the 3rd WR and particularly Clark... also, in the nickel package, the running game of the Colts in the spread offense will thrive...

however, without Harrison, the Colts will most likely stick to 2 TE sets, which really can't exploit this matchup advantage, and plays right to the Pats strengths... the alternative is to use Moorehead in place of Harrison, and we all know that just is not the same...

so... if Harrison can't go, that is a big hit on the Colts effectiveness on offense, and i would be very hesitant to have money on them... if he does go, and can play a lot and be effective, Colts would be a great bet!

this game is all about methodical ball control for the Colts... playing keep away, basically... but what makes this effective for the Colts, is that the Pats can't do that as well, and if they try to be methodical like the Colts, it neutralizes that big play ability they have... so it's a double-edged sword... if the Pats want to use a quick strike approach, the Colts would be fine with that, as long as they can answer with long methodical drives... because come 2nd half, if the Colts are still within a TD, their D will be fresh, and the admittedly Old and slowish D of the Pats will be dying to get off the field...

Watson is a key in this game for the Pats... it wasn't certain if he would play, and if he didn't, just like losing Harrison is critical to the Colts, losing Watson would have been for the Pats... he is what allows them to still run the ball and attack the middle of the field, while spreading it out and forcing the Colts into their nickel D... with Watson in, and Harrison out, the edge is definitely in the Pats favor... the Colts other role players will have to step up bigtime...

i still think the Colts D is fast and athletic enough to control the Pats offense and keep it from getting ugly early on... but if the Colts offense can't play ball control effectively, the Colts D might break in the 2nd half, and the game could get away from them...

there you have it, an actual breakdown of the game... as opposed to the meaningless garbage talk that has dominated this page...

hopefully it will still be a great game... will not be betting on the Colts unless i hear that Harrison is going to go... but even then, nobody will know how effective he can be... might bet on the Pats, more for reasons of capitalizing on possible future value in the lines, but that is a whole other story... i still think above 4.5 there isn't great value on the Pats in this game, and over 7 there is value on the Colts... but the Pats definitely have an opportunity to pull away in the 2nd half...

also wondering if the Colts really want this as much as the Pats... Dungy has rested players and given them days off... and i think if the Colts were viewing this game the way the Pats are Harrison would play on a broken leg... it is possible the Colts are going to save him for a potential later meeting and not risk something in the name of futility in this game...