Pittsburgh at Cleveland (12/10/2009)

I'll give you something to think about... Why did the Ov/Un line drop from 36.5 to 34 overnight? Meanwhile, 72% of the public is on the over... Do you think Vegas is simply thinking about the "two teams playing"? If that's the case, why wouldn't they raise the ov/un to 40... Make people second guess the over and slide more players to an under play? Logical, given your simplicity of capping games, no?

Your score prediction of 27-20 must mean you're on the over, correct? I too was on the over, but after seeing the line movement, I'm sitting the play out. I still think the game goes over, but I'm not comfortable betting against Vegas on a Thursday night game (being the only game on TV). "If" the final score Thursday night is 17-3, you may think to yourself, how did Vegas "know" the game would go under? The answer is simple... Vegas doesn't "know"! But, they do have the time & resources to do a little extra research for you. That's not saying they're always right, or that you should follow lines blindly, but it gives you an additional tool in capping. I've had a lot of success early on in life for which I am extremely fortunate. One thing that has helped me along the way is a saying I'm sure everyone has heard... "Smart people surround themselves by smarter people".  

I don't type this post to be argumentative, rather to help a fellow capper that doesn't seem to be utilizing a tool that has helped me greatly. After all, that's why I'm on this site!

In summary, think of it like this... It's not about out thinking Vegas, but it is about out thinking the public. It should be easy... After all the public voted Obama into office. (it just came right off the fingertips)  Try using Vegas as a "final" deciding factor... Do the research you've mentioned above and before you make a play, see what the line movement shows. If the line movement matches your play, feel confident. (mind you nothing is 100%) 

My play is already in with Pitt -10 ($1)

Thought process is this... Browns have kept their last three close, while Pitt has dropped their last four. The game is in Cleveland, inclement weather is predicted, and the running game will be rampant. Pitts D will put this game on their shoulders, while the offense runs to 17-20 points. I don't think the Browns can run on the Steelers D, this game. Not with the heat Tomlinson has injected into this locker room. When a coach calls out his players publicly, they either respond, or fold. I have a hard time believing the champs fold!!

Good Luck to all!! 

Fooltime, I apreciate how you think. Let me point this out to you. The reason that Vegas or so called our bookies moved the line down is because everyon is on the unders. Vegas makes their money the most by having the public at 50/50. One word and one word only will explain this thought process.

JUICE....10%, is a lot out of 200,000- 500,000 betters.Do the math.

When the public is 50/50, it is a guaranteed win for the house. they dont lose, but the juice sure is sweet. They dont play mind games cause that my friend is Gambling. what do you think about that brah? Does that makes sense to you, cause it sure does to me. No double guessing. (808ALLDAY)

DID NOT MEAN TO SAY TO IGNORE LINE MOVEMENT. IN MY EXPERIENCE IN THE PAST, IVE KICKED MYSELF IN THE ASS BY CHANGING MY MIND.

YOU ARE CORRECT BY SAYING THAT VEGAS WINS AND THE WAY THEY DO THAT IS BY GETTING THE PUBLIC AT 50/50 OR CLOSE TO AND COLLECT THE JUICE. THAT MY FRIEND IS FUCKIN GENIUS.

I was going to call you out on the "brah" comment, but I see you're from Hawaii, so I don't figure it to be condescending.  Juice is "sweet", especially Ruby Red Grapefruit Juice!! Try it my friend... Phenominal. :)

Again, this is just "my" take... You will continue to cap games the way that works for you, but let me put something into perspective for you. 

Game-1, 100 players, 10% juice, playing $100 each, 50/50 split (Team A vs Team B). House takes action... $5000(A)/$5000(B); Team A wins, House pays $5000, collects $5500. Gross- $500

Game-2, 100 players, 10% juice, playing $100 each, 60(A)/40(B) split. House takes action... $6000(A)/$4000(B); Team B wins, House pays $4000, collects $6600. Gross- $2600

The above mentioned scenario(s) completely eradicates your notion of juice being where Vegas makes most of their money!! (This doesn't even take into account parlays, or teasers)

Here is my take (again, this is simply "my" take)... I'm a business man and look for ways to produce more revenue and increase profit on a daily basis. Sports gambling is a multi-billion dollar industry. Do you not think "Vegas" (bookies, casinos, websites, etc...) are not operating with the same philosophy? Juice is simply a cushion... It makes up for the games Vegas gets wrong.

Last, but not least... The public was and is still on the over. This line movement wasn't to even out the playing field... I agree with you that this game should go over... I just won't put money on it because of the DRASTIC line change. There is a reason, other than splitting plays 50/50, as to why the line moved 2.5 pts overnight.  

As always... I wish you the best of luck. I lose games every week, so it's not like I'm better than anyone else. But, I win some money and try to make smart plays. I'm a gambler and make some dumb ones too, but at the end of the day... The lines can make or break a decision.

ANYWAYS, I ALSO WISH YOU THE BEST OF LUCK MY FRIEND CAUSE WE ALL KNOW THE BIGGEST FUCKIN BOOKIES IN THE WORLD IS THE CHURCH AND UNCLE SAM. THEY ALWAYS WIN DAMN IT. HAA HAA HAA.

ALOHA MR FOOLTIME 808 OVER AND OUT G.L.T.A.

BY THE WAY I KNOW THAT VEGAS DOES NOT MAKE THEIR MOST MONEY ON THE JUICE. THEY DO THAT ON THE CRAP TABLES AND CARDS. IT IS SIMPLY POINTING OUT THAT 50/50 IS A SURE WIN FOR ANY BOOKIE.

In summary, think of it like this... It's not about out thinking Vegas, but it is about out thinking the public. It should be easy... After all the public voted Obama into office. (it just came right off the fingertips)  

I'll give you something to think about... Why did the Ov/Un line drop from 36.5 to 34 overnight? Meanwhile, 72% of the public is on the over... Do you think Vegas is simply thinking about the "two teams playing"? If that's the case, why wouldn't they raise the ov/un to 40... Make people second guess the over and slide more players to an under play? Logical, given your simplicity of capping games, no?

Your score prediction of 27-20 must mean you're on the over, correct? I too was on the over, but after seeing the line movement, I'm sitting the play out. I still think the game goes over, but I'm not comfortable betting against Vegas on a Thursday night game (being the only game on TV). "If" the final score Thursday night is 17-3, you may think to yourself, how did Vegas "know" the game would go under? The answer is simple... Vegas doesn't "know"! But, they do have the time & resources to do a little extra research for you. That's not saying they're always right, or that you should follow lines blindly, but it gives you an additional tool in capping. I've had a lot of success early on in life for which I am extremely fortunate. One thing that has helped me along the way is a saying I'm sure everyone has heard... "Smart people surround themselves by smarter people".  

I don't type this post to be argumentative, rather to help a fellow capper that doesn't seem to be utilizing a tool that has helped me greatly. After all, that's why I'm on this site!

In summary, think of it like this... It's not about out thinking Vegas, but it is about out thinking the public. It should be easy... After all the public voted Obama into office. (it just came right off the fingertips)  Try using Vegas as a "final" deciding factor... Do the research you've mentioned above and before you make a play, see what the line movement shows. If the line movement matches your play, feel confident. (mind you nothing is 100%) 

My play is already in with Pitt -10 ($1)

Thought process is this... Browns have kept their last three close, while Pitt has dropped their last four. The game is in Cleveland, inclement weather is predicted, and the running game will be rampant. Pitts D will put this game on their shoulders, while the offense runs to 17-20 points. I don't think the Browns can run on the Steelers D, this game. Not with the heat Tomlinson has injected into this locker room. When a coach calls out his players publicly, they either respond, or fold. I have a hard time believing the champs fold!!

Good Luck to all!!