alopez14325

@LonghornHoosier

 Im really interested in seeing what the Longhorns look like.  If Ewers plays to his potential, Texas could be a really tough team.  The UT offense has all of the pieces to be among the best in CFB, starting w/ QB Ewers who looked like a star at times during his year 1 starting season, the OLine is really good, they have a great TE prospect, three really high level WRs in Worthy Whittington and Mitchell.  Obviously lost best RB in CFB in Bijan Robinson, but they landed the #1 RB recruit in the 2023 class.  Also Sarkiasian has had success in multiple offenses, and I expect this unit will be significantly better than last year.  I think the defense will be better, but thats the bigger question mark imo

I also believe that young teams with new coaching staffs can really benefit from making a bowl game, getting an additional 15 practices and building momentum which can lead into the next season.  I think they can build on last seasons success that had them going 9-4 and finishing the season with a 30-13 bowl win vs UCF. 

They return 8 players who are getting preseason all ACC/All American acclaim.  Including one of the best Oline in CFB which includes Graham Barton who is projected to be one of the first OTs drafted next year.  All three of  their wrs return and they're dynamic, as are their RBs.  Rewatching a few of their games from last season, I was really surprised I didn't recognize at the time how good they were.  They had some issues in their kicking game, otherwise they likely go to OT vs a high powered UNC offense that won 38-35.  Their offense returns 9 starters

Defensively theyre surprisingly talented, most notably they return all 4 starting lineman, and two really talented DBs.  This is a talented defense that only allowed 22 ppg last year.  The biggest difference is their schedule, last year they escaped FSU, Clemson and Notre Dame.  

Assuming there's progression from this young roster who had a first year starting QB, several inexperienced players, and a first year head coach and OC in Mike Elko.  I think this could be a really tough opponent who will be competitive all season, with the chance of pulling an upset or two.  

Alright so I think there's a ton of value at finding under the radar teams and betting them ATS until the market catches up.  Theres also the benefit of being able to bet their season win total... 

In no specific order, A few teams I personally feel are underrated: 1. Texas 2. Duke 3. Texas AM 4. Washington 5. Tennessee

I think I'll start with Duke and why I consider them to be underrated.  The biggest reason is that casual fans look at Duke football as a nothing program, so people can't really comprehend Duke being able to compete with programs like FSU/Clemson/ND/Miami etc..

To serious CFB bettors/fans, I think people are starting to understand that this is a talented roster, but I'm not sure they really believe it.  It's hard to explain how a team that doesn't have a player that could've played at one of the CFB powerhouses.  Regardless they've accumulated a lot of talent in Durham and they return almost their entire roster.  Obviously the most important position determining success is Quarterback and Duke has a potential star who I could see shoot up draft boards when he decides to declare.  Riley Leonard has all of the tools to be exceptional, it's hard to imagine how he fell through the cracks, but the best QBs in the NFL have been under recruited.  As a first year starter he threw for 3k yards 20 Tds and 6 ints, but he also had another 700 yds rushing w 13tds.  This kid extends plays, throws in tight windows, and is a legit threat on the ground.  To get an idea of how athletic he is, he has a 75 yd td run.  Even though they went 9-4 last year and then beat UCF in their bowl game I don't think people understand that this is a team who nearly went undefeated in the acc.  They had a 2 pt loss to Pitt, a 3 pt loss to Gtech, and a 3 pt loss @ unc.  

Alright so I think there's a ton of value at finding under the radar teams and betting them ATS until the market catches up.  Theres also the benefit of being able to bet their season win total... 

In no specific order, A few teams I personally feel are underrated: 1. Texas 2. Duke 3. Texas AM 4. Washington 5. Tennessee

I think I'll start with Duke and why I consider them to be underrated.  The biggest reason is that casual fans look at Duke football as a nothing program, so people can't really comprehend Duke being able to compete with programs like FSU/Clemson/ND/Miami etc..

To serious CFB bettors/fans, I think people are starting to understand that this is a talented roster, but I'm not sure they really believe it.  It's hard to explain how a team that doesn't have a player that could've played at one of the CFB powerhouses.  Regardless they've accumulated a lot of talent in Durham and they return almost their entire roster.  Obviously the most important position determining success is Quarterback and Duke has a potential star who I could see shoot up draft boards when he decides to declare.  Riley Leonard has all of the tools to be exceptional, it's hard to imagine how he fell through the cracks, but the best QBs in the NFL have been under recruited.  As a first year starter he threw for 3k yards 20 Tds and 6 ints, but he also had another 700 yds rushing w 13tds.  This kid extends plays, throws in tight windows, and is a legit threat on the ground.  To get an idea of how athletic he is, he has a 75 yd td run.  Even though they went 9-4 last year and then beat UCF in their bowl game I don't think people understand that this is a team who nearly went undefeated in the acc.  They had a 2 pt loss to Pitt, a 3 pt loss to Gtech, and a 3 pt loss @ unc.  

There are a lot of reasons I think people are overlooking FSU.  The biggest thing is that Jordan Travis has 3yrs of starting experience in the Mike Norvell system that was so dangerous at Memphis.  

In his 2nd year as the starting QB, Travis finished the season as PFF highest graded QB, surpassing Caleb Williams by a tenth of a point.  I don't believe the average fan views Travis and the FSU QB position as having a superstar.  When you factor in his experience in the system, and significant improvements around him (Wr, OL, and TE) and it's hard to think of a circumstance where Travis isn't even better this season... 

Defensively they were able to use the portal to fill any holes they had, and add a lot of depth.  The way the Seminoles used the portal has also guaranteed that they're a very experienced team with transfers being RS JR's and seniors.  This means they will have one of the oldest teams in CFB, imo there's a pretty big advantage when almost every member of the two deep is 22-24years old.  Thats a big difference from the normal roster who is relying on a lot of 18-20 yr old kids.  Not only are these players more developed physically but they're also mentally ahead of younger players

Now the key to actually being National championship contenders is going to come down to superstar QB Jordan Travis who is entering his 3rd season starting in Norvells offense, but he's never had this level of talent around him.  Travis finished 2022 as CFBs highest graded QB in the entire country a point higher than Caleb Williams.  After another 13 games of experience (10-3) and the addition of a superstar WR corps, best Oline in the ACC, and a future NFL TE.... 

Travis is very underrated and if he improves even slightly this is going to be a very dangerous offense.  

PFF doesnt only love Jordan Travis they also love RH Trey Benson who is one of CFBs top RB's Benson finished w/ 1000 yds on 6.5 YPC but absolutely demolished PFFs record for RB w highest rate of missed tackles at 0.51... This is a crazy number and if they get a similar performance it's going to be really tough stopping the rushing attack of Trey Benson and RB Trey Benson.  If teams put too much emphasis on stopping the run, it could be really tough to stop the passing game w 2-3 potential first rd picks

Defensively they have the potential to be elite, they return their best DT Lovett after a season ending injury, but they also added 3 potential stars; including the #1 DT in the portal class, an all MWC 1st team star, they also added a former high 4star DT prospect out of highschool who started as a freshman at Maryland and after transferring to Miami he started again w 27 tkls 4.5 tfl 3sks... Finally they bring in South Carolina starting DE who had 60 tkls 9 TFL and 2 sacks as his first season as a starter.  

They return 2/3 team leading tacklers at LB.  Their secondary returns two starting CBs, including an all American level transfer who started at Virginia and finished as 1at team all ACC CB.  Cyprus was the #1 rated DB in the portal and #2 player overall... 

Il start with the two teams that come to the top of my head, and Florida State and Colorado both stick out.  Colorado still has a long way to go, but FSU may have been able to use the past recruiting classes and the portal to become national championship contenders.

I know it would've been crazy to call FSU a contender a year ago, but since then theyve addressed a ton of issues through recruiting cycle, and more importantly the transfer portal. 

They return a ton of key starters including the best Oline in the ACC, an elite RB, and a WR corps that includes a likely 1st rd pick in Johnny Wilson, they added a superstar WR who also could be a future 1st rd pick, he lead Michigan State in every stat during his 2nd season, he's 6'4 played on the MIch state basketball team, and is coming off a 60 rec, 800 yd, 7td performance.  (Jayden Reed was a 2nd rd pick but didn't have better stats in any category). 

They also added a 5star freshman WR who could contribute as their 3rd wr, but regardless they have a lot of depth... Last year they didn't have much of a TE presence, but they added two borderline elite players at TE as well.  One is a two time FCS All American, but the bigger get might be Jaheim Bell who was the #1 transfer TE who is a legit weapon on the outside.  

Their Oline added the #1 OT in the portal, a 3yr starter at guard from Auburn, another starting guard from Colorado, and a RS freshman class that was loaded w high tier 4/5 star recruits.  This should easily be the best Online in the ACC.

Defensively they return who draft analysts are projecting as a top 15 pick.  On the opposite side they return freshman who had 30tkls 6TFL and 5 sacks in his first season. 

Alright so like usual I've been doing my homework throughout the off-season and unlike past years, the transfer portal has completely changed how quickly bad teams can become good, and good teams can become great... So let's talk about teams that have been most affected by the portal and recruiting classes.

Damn Double up isn't on forum anymore?  He was one of like four users that kept me engaging in the forum as long as I did, the other 3 being bookie assassin, Train, and Longhorn... Probably a few im forgetting, but very few members actually provide value w their posts

Like most ppl just post their random picks w no context, and then there's the peanut gallery who love to criticize 

im not sure that had anything to do with analytics, instead the realization that the BYU kicker is really bad, so as long as they can keep them outside the 20 yd line in 30 secs, they would still be okay.  The only other thing i could think of is refs warned both teams about DB's using their hands, and ECU loved the matchup figuring its a TD or PI... The worst part was the CB could have fallen down and because of great safety play, the PI was irrelevant.  Safety wasnt fooled at all, was drifting over before ball was even thrown, and was fast enough to get their in time where he was able to play the ball rather than try to collide into WR and knock ball loose.  

BYUs terrible kicker also probably played into the HC's logic of going for it on 4th and 2 rather than kicking a FG and taking a 3 pt lead mid 4th quarter

I am right with you on the Buckeyes, and am very close to pulling the trigger on Houston. Theres a few things that have me concerned about Houston though, mostly the only team theyve beaten by more than one score is Navy.  Their wins have been by skin of their teeth, as have their losses.  I like that they're at home, and South Florida is with their backup QB, but they have road games at Florida, and Cincy where they probably shouldve won.  Even last week against the newly ranked Tulane, the USF defense only allowed 17 points with 3 minutes reminaing in the 3rd quarter.  The wheels started to fall off at that point, but even still USF managed two TD drives to keep score respectable with backup QB... I also think its important that people realize that USF has had a full two weeks to implement a game plan that suits their backup QB, and he'll be getting all of the reps for the past two weeks of practice, which can make a major difference on the college level.  USF also has three serious weapons on offense, Battie, Horn and Weaver are dangerous.  and last concern is that USF has a pretty strong defense, except shutting down the run, unfortunately Houston has a mediocre run game, and rely on Tune to make plays.  

Im going to take Houston, but prob going to lower wager size a bit.  Hopefully it becomes a shoot out and USF cant keep pace with their back up QB. As long as no ST scores or Houston turnovers, i think theyre the right side.  

Whats up Hoosier, got any teams you feel are undervalued at this point?  I think AM, Texas, NC State, Clemson, Maryland Miami, and South Carolina are a couple teams that might be slept on... 

@Silverstones

 whoa whoa I understand what you're trying to say, but thats not true at all.  In fact, you can gain an edge buying points.  It all depends on what the juice is for a half of a point, and what are you being charged for half points on key numbers (specifically 3 and 7... If you can buy a half pt on key numbers for 10% vig, you should buy as many points as theyre willing to sell to you...

If youre interested to learn more, I can track down the article explaining everything.  lmk

@Martylee

 There were a few game changing calls/bad coaching... Like the fumble, and then an onside kick at worst time... I was pretty surprised how different this Northwestern team was, I had been following Hilinski since the elite 11 (and his brothers suicide, and even though he looked good at South Carolina, he was horrendous last season for NW.... Im shocked that the NW offense looked completely different, they had no issue creating holes and gashing Nebraska on the ground.  Nebraska did have two diff opportunities they were up 11 with all of the momentum and both times they screwed it up (Fumble, then Onside kick... and it didnt take long for their wheels to come off, Thompson looked like a heisman in the 1st half and was terrible 2nd half.  I was just on the wrong side, I didnt expect NW to run ball up and down field, or their inability to stop this same NW team they best 47-7 last season.   

I got Nebraska at -12, Im shocked by Northwestern's offense.  Regardless I still feel fairly confident that Casey Thompson will start to pull away.  Casey Thompson is a great QB, and Nebraska is loaded with multiple quality WR's.  If they had any kind of running game, id feel a lot better

@GamblinDAWG

 Well I typically dont care how high of a recruit the player is, I start judging them once they arrive on campus.  So when DJ impressed in spring game, I thought okay maybe he does have ability to live up to hype.  Then he played BC and @ ND and not only did he throw for 400 ypg, he had multiple TD passes, long TD runs, and Clemson shouldve won both games.  He was shaking off sacks, throwing lasers on deep outs (about 5 NFL QB's make those throws)... So he showed all the tools, and as a true freshman he was already playing at a heisman level.... 

Fast forward a year and hes the worst QB in the ACC... It's hard to understand how that happens. I would say the only way it would be possible is if there were a bunch of diff things that went wrong and kindve created the perfect storm. It's gotta take a special person w/ serious mental fortitude, to bounce back from a season like that. How can he walk on a field and feel confident that hes going to play well.

I couldnt agree more, esp bc he was so good as a freshman, and high school QB, and he does everything the right way.  Puts the team first, always takes blame, very humble, studies film.  It was hard to explain his performance, even with all the surrounding issues... I think he really showed how good Lawerence was, bc he had alot of similar issues

@Bridge1

 I cant recall a weirder start to a career than DJ's, and he was really bad last year regardless of other factors, but at the same time he did have 30lbs of too much weight, an issue w his knee, a broken finger on throwing hand, a terrible oline, attrocious playcalling, and his best weapons were all out due to injury (Ngata, Ross, Williams, Shipley, both Collins, and every slot WR on roster.)... Granted that doesnt excuse his passes 10 feet too high,or looking so lost.  BUT I just watched his freshman games and he was elite on the road vs good teams.  He was the #1 HS QB at the #1 HS... During the elite 11, the coaches were all telling DJ hes by far the most talented QB there, despite being in front of the other competitors.  They must have said it over 10x's... Ive never seen sucha good hardworking kid go from future #1 pick to really\ bad over one offseason.  Part might be on Tony Elliot, but every other ACC QB is throwing 300 yds a game vs weak defenses, where as DJ would struggle to hit 150yds and had more int;s than TD's,

I hope they give him a game or two to see if he can return to what he was, but if not Klubnik is a freshman who can win the natty.  Obviously theres his high school career, but then he wins elite 11 mvp, MVP of all american game, and against a loaded defense and freshman at oline, he was able to complete beuatiful balls during spring game. This kid has had so much work as the starting QB for texas state champs multiple seasons, and it;s no longer surprising to watch a true freshman QB wun a national championship (Tebow, Lawerence, Tua, Hurts, Bryce Young, Macnamara, and even the ones who didnt win had great years, like Fromm, Stroud, etc..