Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
---|---|---|---|---|
@AnthonyStarks Glad to see youre finding success on it. What do you look for in terms of movement? Is this to squeeze some %s in the long term or because u think the movement is indicative of an outcome? |
Asomugha | 10 |
|
|
@Gainsford
Yeah absolutely, im not saying to bet on unders blindly, just on a personal level even if I like the "overs" in the sense that I think theres bad goaltending / really potent offenses like in the case of a team like Oilers, im probably not gonna touch the over anyway. To me its either I take the under or I stay away. |
Asomugha | 10 |
|
|
These over/under lines are completely nuts. The default line is now 6.5. 5 years ago the normal line was 5.5 and in some matchups for teams with good goaltenders/defense like New York Rangers or Ducks you could see a 4.5 line.. 6.5 is the norm now. 5 years ago the 5.5 line was the 50-50 line at 1.90 - 1.90 or like 1.80 - 2.10, you could take the alternative 6.5 line and you woul get 70-30 or 75-25 odds of 3.10 - 1.35 / 3.30 - 1.30 for over 6.5..
Statistically we might still be getting a lot of overs, I dont know. But do people enjoy touching the over when the line is like this? 6.5 is just so insane.
Basically when you are betting on over 6.5, you are betting that BOTH teams will score 3 goals which averages out to BOTH teams to score in every period. The only other way that you can without both teams scoring 3 is if 1 team scores 5 GOALS.
When we had the 5.5 line as the default so many overs was won in this fashion: Score is 2-2 going into the 3rd period, one team scores within the first 15-17 minutes of the period to go up 3-2 and then other team pulls goalie and the game ends 4-2. This killed a lot of under 5.5s but this wont kill 6.5s. And, when u have a 2-1 score going into the 3rd you might have each team score a goal in the period, or the trailing team scoring 2 goals in the 3rd, again, this gives us a 3-2 score line and then we will again see the goalie pulled to put a 5.5 line in jeopardy - but not a 6.5 line.
TL;DR: A 6.5 line is completely nuts. It means u need BOTH teams to score 3 goals each or 1 team to score 5+ (and even then its not guaranteed). A team scoring 4 goals doesnt do anything, u still need the other team to score 3. For me, if I hate the goaltenders on two teams and I love the offenses im still not going to bet over. The line is insane. |
Asomugha | 10 |
|
|
For the PGA Championship what was the spread/line for "How many strokes will the winner use over/under xxx" before this major started? Does anyone know? |
Asomugha | 1 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by tboon:
Interesting....
|
Asomugha | 5 |
|
|
Im not gonna show you the breakdown for how much you should bet on each golfer, thats up to yourself, but I will give an example of what I've done. The principle is this though: If a golfer youve bet on finishes in top 20, you have to make sure youre making money. You should be profiting from successfully predicting a golfer in top 20, because thats not easy. The only exception to this is if youre betting a top favorite because then the value of top 20 is so small its barely worth it. In that case you can either scrap the top 20 bet, but id prefer to keep the top 20 bet and just accept that you will lose a bit of money if he only gets into top 20 and falls short of top 10.
Anyways so lets take a look at the example for what I've done on one of the golfers
- Paul Casey Top 20 $575 @ +200
- Paul Casey Top 10 $300 @ +450
- Paul Casey To Win Outright $125 @ +5500
If Casey finishes in Top 20 I will win 1725, I bet a total of $1000 on him so thats a profit of $725
If Casey finishes in Top 10 I will win 1650, since Casey finishing in Top 10 also means I will win the top 20 bet, so thats 1725 + 1650 - the $1000 I bet on Casey in total. So thats a profit of 2375.
If Casey wins outright I will win $7000. + the Top 10 and Top 20 bet, that gives us a total profit of $9375.
So as you can see, no matter what if Casey finishes in Top 20 we will make a good profit. Top 10 or an outright win will just up that. And you could add top 5 to this mix, thats not bad, Ive just chosen not to this major. The good thing is you could theoretically have all your players finish in Top 20 or top 10 if you bet on 7 players, unrealistic but possible. And if someone makes a run for the title then youre really great off. I wouldnt recommend betting on more than 8 golfers for this Outright/Top 10/Top 20 format. If you have a lot of dogs you can bet on 8 golfers id say. But if all your picks are mostly golfers among the favorites to win (+4000 or lower) then id not go with more than 4 or 5.
And I apologize for the d in OP, it wouldnt let me post a topic for so many hours so I just kept trying different things, so it had to be a comment instead when I finally got some topic created.
Best of luck this Open. Think we will see some amazing golf. |
Asomugha | 5 |
|
|
I think this forum is pretty good, people are good at spotting golfers that will pop off. But the biggest mistake I see people make is that they only bet on a golfer to win outright, rather than him placing in top 20 top 10 and potentially top 5. So youre not sugercoating it in the value that it should have. Predicting an outright winner is always tough, only 1 can win obviously and the field is huge, but if you can successfully predict golfers to perform better than odds indicate, then you should be getting the most value out of making that prediction. Here are my bets and how I go about it. All odds are from bet365. You can probably find higher odds elsewhere I just like it for its simplicity and its not complicated and payouts are easy. But yeah, you can probably get higher odds on some of these if u wanna squeeze out some more value. I like to do: Outright winner, Top 10 and Top 20. Sometimes Top 5. But I have scrapped that for this open. Top 10 and Top 20 gives a lot of cushioning and top 5 can easily fade away on the last 3 holes.
The Open Championship 2019 - Outright Winner
- Patrick Cantlay @ +2800 - Matt Kuchar @ +3500 - Bryson DeChambeau @ +4000 - Paul Casey @ +5500 - Bernd Wiesberger @ +6600 - Erik van Rooyen @ +11000 - Brandt Snedeker @ +12500 - Russell Knox @ +17500
The Open Championship 2019 - Top 10
- Patrick Cantlay @ +250 - Matt Kuchar @ +275 - Bryson DeChambeau @ +350 - Paul Casey @ +450 - Bernd Wiesberger @ +500 - Erik van Rooyen @ +800 - Brandt Snedeker @ +1000 - Russell Knox @ +1600
The Open Championship 2019 - Top 20
- Patrick Cantlay @ +120 - Matt Kuchar @ +137 - Bryson DeChambeau @ +162 - Paul Casey @ +200 - Bernd Wiesberger @ +250 - Erik van Rooyen @ +350 - Brandt Snedeker @ +550 - Russell Knox @ +700
|
Asomugha | 5 |
|
|
d |
Asomugha | 5 |
|
|
Why cant I create a thread on this golf forum? It just takes me to a blank page when I make a thread. Odd. |
WussieMan | 19 |
|
|
who u got? |
Asomugha | 10 |
|
|
stomp |
CrazyMilkMan | 928 |
|
|
replied to
Cavs just lost second half by 34 points against one of the weakest teams in the league
in NBA Betting
wolves are the straight opposite of cavs atm.
|
Asomugha | 20 |
|
|
replied to
Cavs just lost second half by 34 points against one of the weakest teams in the league
in NBA Betting Quote Originally Posted by fadeaway123: I used to be a fan until I saw how easily he folded in the finals against the Mavs and Spurs when the opposing teams put elite defenders on him. But it takes a special person to play at your highest level night in and night out when you're being paid 30 million a year and already accomplished as much as he has. I think it's a sign he needs to hang it up and retire I like lebron. but this was weak as hell.
|
Asomugha | 20 |
|
|
replied to
Cavs just lost second half by 34 points against one of the weakest teams in the league
in NBA Betting Quote Originally Posted by Sabanesque: The "grades" of teams can change overnight.
Kyrie Irving was the key for Cle in every close game last year.
Look at how they are w/ Thomas--soft.
Orlando is better than Cleveland. So many washed up players on that team that needs to go. Rose is awful.
|
Asomugha | 20 |
|
|
replied to
Cavs just lost second half by 34 points against one of the weakest teams in the league
in NBA Betting Quote Originally Posted by buffer: No to mention Orlando had 4 key players out zero bench and they are playing back to back after a ridiculously tough game against miami yesterday, its a joke in every way.
|
Asomugha | 20 |
|
|
created a topic
Cavs just lost second half by 34 points against one of the weakest teams in the league
in NBA Betting
Cavs fresh legs, havent played for 3 days.
Orlando magic won a tough nailbiter yesterday and are playing back to back. Orlando magic are also missing very notable players so they have an awful bench that just makes their roster even worse than it is and that will just impact you even more when you play back to back, especially when yesterdays game was such a grind it was close the entire game and they never got time to breathe. Orlandos chance in this game was PERHAPS if cavs got off to a slow start and Orlando blew them out in the first half because they just hit their shots early on, THAT was their chance, they have "tired" legs right that should just impact them so much more in 2nd half with their poor rotations and they are playing a much surperior team, but cavs opened the first quarter with 43 points and at that point its pretty much game set match, keep that pacing and cavs would hit 166 points, sure they might drop off a little but with "orlando magics legs" they should just look even worse as the game progresses. If this isnt the biggest joke youve ever heard then i dont know what is. If i was sitting here writing telling you that cavs just beat blowed the magic out by 42 points in the second half you wouldnt be so surprised taking everything into account, instead, this is a 34 point 2nd half loss and thus a 76 point expectance swing, thats just hilarious. My point is this, like some other dude mentioned, playing back to back is the biggest myth ever created in professional sports, EVER. There is NOTHING to suggest that you cant rest back to back you even get a night of sleep. Why is playing back to back oh so tough? Its a fucking scam. Even if stats show that people do worse on a back to back its more because its a self-enhancing lazy effect where people prioritize the game where they have "fresh legs" and are either tanking in the next game because they are too lazy to put in work or they are just using the next game as an excuse for "playing back to back" its a bunch of fucking bullcrap. When i used to play soccer when we had tournaments in soccer you would start early in the morning playing 2x 40 minutes or sometimes 2x45 minutes and we would play 4 matches of 80 or 90 minutes stretched out over the day and we were recovering just fine and performed at a pretty high level after having played 300 minutes of soccer in the same day, and bare in mind most of us are fat lazy slobs with beer belly and we are in terrible shape and we can play 300 minutes of soccer at the level we are expected to despite our physical retarded shape. And you are telling me that PROFESSIONAL athletes, TOP OF THE WORLD, in their BEST POSSIBLE PHYSICAL SHAPE are tired after playing maybe 19-22 minutes of basketball in a night and they cant show up perfectly fit the next day after sleeping for 12 hours? Give me a fucking break. When I was in the army we were physical 12 hours a day, perhaps running straight for 2-3 hours, marching for 5, doing physical exercises for 2-3 hours, doing additional random shit for a bunch of more hours and we maybe had 2000 calories to our disposal and maybe we got 3 hours of sleep if we were lucky and then we repeated that same shit the next day, the day after, the day after the day after and the day after that again. back to back to back to back to back to back to back and we got paid peanuts, and you are telling me these professional athletes are tired THE DAY AFTER after having showed up for only 18 minutes on the court with several game-breaks gotten all the food they can eat best trainers around them and all the sleep they can ask for its a fucking joke, and anyone buying it is a brainless sheep. Playing 2 games a day 7 days straight shouldnt even be an issue in the slightest even if cross-country. Its a load of fucking BS.
|
Asomugha | 20 |
|
|
Playing back to back being tough is the biggest myth EVER created in the universe. Infact its such a myth its not even funny. Even sometimes where you have data to "prove" that playing back to back is tough its more the fact that players are playing lazy and know they can get away with using b2b as an excuse more than its back to back. NBA Athletes are physically in ridiculous shape and playing back to back means nothing, they could wake straight up and be well recovered. If you are exhausted from playing 30 minutes of basketball you are an idiot, sure its intense while the game goes on but you recover fast as darn right after, running intensively for 30 minutes is tough too but of course you can run the day after or you could run for another hour and half if you had to.
|
TreyInventor | 9 |
|
|
created a topic
Post-SB discussion; The state of NFL, defenses, Philadelphia, shoot-out
in NFL Betting Great, I just took 1 hour of the day to write something only to see it deleted, so I will rewrite this again but make it short, fuck it.
The state of NFL? I think its terrible for a lot of reasons, refs too much impact on the game, too much of a show, NFL seems like hollywood with the acting and the virtue signalling in the form of kneeling. Barely any good Ds in the league, in the past good Ds didnt allow many yards per game and they didnt give up alot of points good Ds. I just miss good ds. and i hate the direction the league is going in. Therefore its also ironic that iggles overcome pats by winning in a shoot out and run and gun rather than by stepping up defensively, pats blew it themselves with missed FGs etc.
Philadelphia as a city is a desert in the way that they havent experienced succes for so long, i love to look at that when i am to cap over/under regular season wins and look at which team can turn this tendency around the fastest, if u look at sixers, phillies, flyers, they all suck major dick, bottom of the league, doesnt make playoffs for many years and when they do its a first-round boot and same for eagles prior to this season. Its interesting. This win is food for the table for the city which by the way is 5 times as populous as pittsburgh. Tendencies like this are important. You cant have 4 teams struggling thats just bad.
Thoughts? |
Asomugha | 2 |
|
|
Welp. Glad I didnt lay harder. Gratz to wozniacki! |
Asomugha | 23 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by BIGDTITLE: Ok. Where’s the halep ticket then? I got halep. For a 'small' amount. I try to cut down on gambling but in a spot like this halep is just too good not to take.
|
Asomugha | 23 |
|
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.