betallwinners

Agree with PF.....you clearly know nothing about the DFW area.  One of the healthiest cities in the U.S.  We add in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area the population of Wichita, KS every 3 years and have some of the wealthiest areas the U.S.

With Dak and Zeke both in the running for MVP and Rookie of the Year, do you think they will not be playing their butt's off?  Maybe next week they rest, but not tonight.

thanks to all and yep HoutonSports....some real good Codeine Cough Syrup.  Should sleep real well tonight get up good and rested and hopefully with a few more $'s in my pocket.

Of topic, but like BYU/Wyoming UNDER 28.5 1st Half.  Tough to be right back in rhythm after not playing for a couple of weeks.

I have been knocked on my butt, by the Flu or a bad case of Bronchitis and running a fever since Saturday night.  Got to the Doc this morning so should be back on the rebound in a day or two.  I will update my record tomorrow or Thursday when I am feeing a little better.

Gonna tread lightly here for a few days, because capping games sick and with a fever is a sure recipe to lose money, but being from KY and going to school at both Louisville and KY,  I have to weigh in on this game.

KY -1.5 over Louisville

There is no more important game in the State of KY each year then when these two teams meet.  It is like the Hatfield's and McCoy's of basketball.  Both teams will have equal representation at the game as Lexington, KY is just 60 miles east of Louisville and KY has enough alumni in Louisville with money to buy every seat in the Arena.  Also, it does not bother me that this game is in Louisville as the Road team is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

There is only one thing that concerns me about KY in this game "if anything" is their big win against N. Carolina this weekend, but these kids know how important this game is, so there should be not let down.

Both Teams have an excellent RPI with KY #8 and Louisville #11.

Strength of schedule favors KY slightly #14 vs. Louisville at #27.

I think on  a scale of talent KY is an easy 10 and Louisville is about an 8.  On depth of bench, I think KY is also about a 10, with Louisville around a 7.  I think this depth issue will come into play late in the game as the Louisville players will be exhausted from trying to play their pressure defense against KY for 40 minutes.

Here is where the rubber also meets the road, whether the game is at KFC YUM Center in Louisville or RUPP Arena in KY the KY Wildcats have won 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Could Louisville pull the minor upset as a +1.5 point dog?  Sure, but they will have to play their best game of the season and hope for KY to struggle.

Louisville has a 7 point win over Purdue in Louisville, but I think Purdue is the better team.  Purdue came out cold as ice in the first half and trailed 19-33 at half-time and actually won the 2nd half 45-38.  In this game Purdue shot poorly at 35%, while Louisville shot above their average at 48.5%

Calipari knows how big this game is to all of the KY Alumni and he will have his team ready.  It is also and incredibly huge game for the student body for bragging rights in the state of KY.  Louisville is like the little brother to the University of KY and you treat the little brother nice, but you never let him win.

Laying -1.5 with KY causes me no concern at all with a "back door" or any other type of cover.  In the past 9 meetings between these teams with KY winning 8 the score has never been decided by less than 2 points and the average margin of victory has been 7. 

BOL!!!! 

Headed to see Doc......will not be able to look at anything until later this afternoon.

#2.  Arkansas Little Rock -2.5 over Oral Roberts

(2-9) Oral Roberts can’t seem to win games and has an RPI of only 259

(9-2) Arkansas Little Rock has a better RPI of 201 and has shown they know how to win at 9-2.

Both teams have a solid comparison in the game they both played against.

Arkansas Little Rock beat Tulsa 72-62 (by 10 points)

ORU lost to Tulsa 65-79 (by 14 points)

One team is 9-2, the other is 2-9.  One team has an RPI of 201, the other has an RPI of 259.  One team beat Tulsa by 10 points, the other team lost to Tulsa by 14 points.

That is all I need to look at to take Ark. Little Rock at -2.5 points in this game.

#1.  USC -21.5 over Cornell

USC is off of a very lazy effort against Troy on Saturday.  They nearly got upset after being down in the 2^nd half and I think that game will be a wake-up call for tonight’s game against another pretty weak opponent.

USC (9-0) and is ranked #24 and has an outstanding RPI of #16, higher than their #24 ranking.

Cornell at (2-5) has a really crappy RPI at (279) and this is a team that USC should blow-out, especially on their home court.

Throw out the last game against Troy and USC has played 3 teams at home similar to Cornell and all teams have a better RPI than Cornell.

-Beat Pepperdine by 26 (RPI 270)

-Beat USCB by 24 (RPI 213)

-Beat UNO by 34 (RPI 87 – very decent)

Cornell has laid some eggs on the road this year:

-The just lost at Wyoming by 19, but it could have been 40 points. . That game was a total blowout, not nearly as close as the 19-point final margin might suggest. Wyoming was up a ton and went all bench for most of the second half. A couple of end of the bench guys who had basically not played at all ended up with 21 minutes each. If the Cowboys had left the starters in, they could have won easily by 40+.

- Cornell lost at Houston by 30 (53-83).

Wyoming and Houston are the only 2 major conference programs Cornell has played and this game against USC will be by far their hardest test and based on USC’s lackluster performance in their last game against Troy, I think this is a really bad spot for Cornell.  I look for a 28-32 point victory by the #24 ranked Trojans.

CBB POSTED RECORD 40-18 (70%)

Yesterday 1-0 with Rutgers.  Made a play on an easy winner with TCU late, but could not post due to a Cowboys/Tampa Bay Party I was at. 

Will be posting later this morning, right now fighting off fever and strep throat.

Quote Originally Posted by trainwreck66:

I am surprised you didn't get an alert on Rutgers on the open at -4.......bol today

I did get opening line alerts, but I do eat, sleep and try to spend some time with family and friends.  All the guys I know are pretty sharp gamblers and get the same alerts when lines are posted, but I see no reason to be married to it.  Yesterday I bet South Florida +13 and by game time is was +11. Would have won either way.  On Friday night I bet Georgetown -8 and at game time it went off at -7.5.  Anyone that took 6 could have waited and gotten 7.5.  You just never know, but I bet lines before I post, so I am posting what I actually played.

That should be Rutgers is 8-0 at home this year.

#1. Rutgers -5.5 over Fordham

Rutgers has a pretty decent RPI at 92.  Rutgers won at DePaul 66-59 (by 7 points) and covered.

Rutgers also played decent on the road at (8-2) Miami lost 71-83 (by 12 points) and also covered the spread of 14.5.

Fordham is in the Stratosphere at 302.  Based on this RPI, they have played nobody…..notta, not one major programs.

Rutgers is 8-0 this year and Fordham is 0-4 on the road.

Rutgers has won their last 3 home games against similar or better competition by 14, 42 and 13 points, which makes -5.5 against Fordham seem well within their range.

In their last 3 games, Fordham has played on the road and lost against some real cupcakes by 7, 28 and 12 points.  A similar performance to any of those 3 games and Rutgers’s get the cover. Fordham is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Sun. games which is one more slight edge to Rutgers.

Slim Pickens today……May find one more, but not forcing anything….BOL!

Not a great day yesterday 11-7, but biggest plays were on UCLA and Tulsa, so a little better day than the record indicates.

CBB POSTED RECORD 39-18 (68.4%)

Back later with plays

This is probably it for the Day.  With todays card there were about 80 possibilities (20% of games) and I found 18 I think have value......hope it all works out!!!

#18.  Fresno State pick’em over Pacific

Fresno (7-3) looks like a far superior team to Pacifc.

This is another “fishy” line IMO, but I am biting.

The only thing it looks like Pacific is their home court where they are 4-0, but the 4 wins were over VERY poor teams.

Fresno State has a very impressive 49.5 FG% vs. Pacific at a very poor 37.3%.  This is a HUGE advantage for Fresno State.  Fresno also shoots 40.6% from 3 point range.

Fresno has shown that they can win and play well on the road.

-They won at Oregon State 63-58 (by 5 points)

-They won at Drake 78-72 (by 6 points)

Fresno’s most impressive game is a loss by 5 points (81-84) at Marquette 10 days ago.  Any effort close to this would destroy Pacific.

Pacific has nothing on their resume near as impressive.  They had 4 straight losses until winning their last game against a (1-9), yes (1-9) 2^nd Tier North Carolina A&T 66-57 (by 9 points)

If both teams play to form and their potential all signs point to Fresno State getting the “W” and with the game a pick’em all they need to do is win.

All my focus is on Basketball, but I could not pass up San Diego State +165 on the ML either.

Boy is Northern Iowa playing crappy – glad to get the win with UCLA.  Looks like a 5-2 start to the day with counting N. Iowa as a loss.

#17.  Illinois pick over BYU

This line really seems “fishy”.

I am going to keep this short….and see if these RPI ranking really mean anything.

Illinois has a RPI ranking of 69 (my favorite number)

BYU has a RPI ranking of 132

Illinois (8-3) has a couple of quality wins over major conference teams:

-They beat (8-2) North Carolina State that has a RPI of 46 by 14 points (88-74)

-They beat (7-3) VCU that has a 48 RPR of 48 by 18 points (64-54)

Both pretty impressive wins I would say.  Two of their 3 losses were to #12 ranked W. Va and #23 ranked Florida State.

That IMO looks pretty impressive for this (8-3) Illinois Team.

What has BYU done to not be an underdog is this game?

BYU (7-3) has only played two major conference teams and only has one quality win.

-They won over (8-3) Colorado 79-70 (by 9 points)

-They lost to #24 ranked USC 84-91 (by 7 points)

Other than those two games you can say much good about the schedule that BYU has played.

BYU lost to a (5-4) Utah Valley State team by 13 points and this game is a pick’em.  Something seem fishy but I am biting.

#16.  Vandy -3 over Chattanoga

In my opinion, Vandy -3 is too low and is an over-reaction to their last game against at MTU where Vandy got hammered 48-71 (by 23 points)

Vandy was clearly not ready for this game and shot a miserable 32% from the field and MTU is a decent team that shot 46% from the field.

But one game does not or break or define who a team is.

I think Vandy bounces back big in this game tonight.

Here is how crazy some games and situations can be.

Vandy hammered (8-2) Tenn State 83-59 (by 24 points).  Tenn State who was hammered by Vandy goes on the road and wins at MTU  by 11 points (74-63).  Go figure….I think Vandy has an exceptionally poor game and MTU played better than average.

Again, off that embarrassing loss, I expect Vandy to come out ready to play tonite.

Vandy lost on the road to #18 Butler by 10 points (56-66)

Vandy lost on the road to (11-1) Minnesota by 4 points (52-56)

Based on these two games Vandy is better than what MTU did to them in their last game.

Chattanooga has one quality win on the season in their first game over  (6-4) Tenn

Then they lost by 40 to North Carolina (57-97).  This will be their first major conference game in over a month.

I am going to take my chances in this game on Vandy to snap back and lay the small number -3.

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Good stuff man, you are doing a lot of work. Good luck

Thank you....I have done it for years on Basketball and really enjoy it....especially on the winning days.  Follow you in football, but have only been on here about a month and watched for a while before I decided to start posting about 10 days ago.

Off to a decent start on the day at 3-1 on early games that are final…..a good sign.

#15.  Indiana State +8 over Valparaiso

I think Valpo will miss Adekoya  in this game against a physical IN. State team .  He is a 6’7” power forward that averages 9 PPG and 6 RPG and was just declared academically ineligible.

Prior to their last game IN. State beat #18 Butler and I think they came out a little flat in their game against Western KY.

What impresses me about this team besides the Butler win is how they have played some other tough teams on the road.

They lost on the road at a neutral site to (7-3) Stanford by 3 (62-65)

They lost on the road at a neutral site to (6-3) Iowa State by 2 (71-73)

I think (5-5) IN. State comes ready to play tonight  off their poor performance in their last game.

As a direct comparison:

On the road, IN. State won at Ball State by 6 points (80-74)

At home, Valpo played Ball State and won by 6 points (79-73)

While IN. State is (5-5) they are a very solid (7-3) ATS.  They are also (2-1) on the year in true road games.

IN. State is (7-2) ATS in their last 9 games overall.

IN. State is (10-4) in their last 14 games played on Saturday.

The last 3 times these teams have played the largest margin of victory has been 6 points and the average margin of victory is 4 points – these 2 play tight games, so getting 8 point is pretty strong.

Without Adekoya, I think Valpo laying 8 points is worth taking and IN. State has proven their worth by beating #18 Butler.  I am taking the +8.

Yes sir!

Selections are  below

In games against decent programs and teams this year ORU has given up the following points:

Mo. State 86 (last game)

Oklahoma 92

Michigan State 80 (they average 72)

Oakland 92

Tulsa 79

Mississippi 95

Now ORU plays #10 ranked Creighton at (10-0) that averages 91.6 point per game and shoots a 54.3 FG% and 45% from 3 point range.

Creighton is winning their home games by an average of 89.7 to 66.8, which is 23 points and very close to the spread of -24.5

ORU on the road this year are scoring an average of 68.6 points per game while giving up 85.2 points per game and losing by an average of 17 points.  GUESS WHAT….Creighton is no average team.

Creighton just beat power house Longwood by 55 points (113-58), so this team does not let up when they even have a power house like Longwood on the ropes.

Creighton has exceed the Century Mark 3 times this year – 113 vs. Longwood, 112 against N.C. State and 103 against Washington State.

If Oklahoma can beat ORU by 26 and if Oakland can beat ORU by 28….what will #10 Creighton do to them.

-ORU is 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 Sat. games.

-Creighton is 23-8 ATS in their last 31 home games.

-Over is 15-7 in CRE last 22 non-conference games.

-Creighton is 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall.

Based on the ability of Creighton to score easily 90 points or more and how big of a difference there is in talent between these two teams, I am making a rare two plays in one game.

#X.  Creighton -24.5 over ORU

#14. Creighton and ORU over 160.5

#12.  Tulsa -9 over Texas State**

Texas State has only played 2 true road games this year.

-They lost to (5-8) Texas Rio Grande Valley by 11 points (61-72)

-They lost to (3-7) Texas San Antonio by 15 points (48-63)

Tulsa (4-4) is far better than either of these Tier 2 school programs.

Tulsa does not have a great RPI at 185 due to their relatively weak schedule having only played top teams Wichita and Oklahoma State and losing both games.

But Texas State has one of the highest RPI’s in the country at #322 (it does not get much worse than that people)

In their last game, Tulsa lost at (8-2) Oklahoma State (#63 RPI) by only 4 points (67-71).  This is what I call a great loss as they covered the spread of +9.

Tulsa is 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 home games.

This is somewhat of a David against Goliath and I think Tulsa will be hungry for a convincing win off their close loss to Oklahoma State.

I feel good laying only -9 on Tulsa against a very weak Texas State team that has not shown they can lose by less than 10 points on the road to Tier  2 programs.