BurningBush

U mad?

I just asked my 10 year old niece the same thing.  She also came up with nothing.  FSU -10, lock.

Nothing.  I thought all of these threads were jokes at this point.

I guess I needed to spell it out for you.  I'm talking about this year.  Winners have been UCF, Michigan State, Oklahoma, and Clemson, all of which were dogs, three of which were dogs of a TD or greater.

Seriously, the oddsmakers must have been laughing their fools off when they set Baylor -17.

I bet on Bama, ASU, and Baylor and am 12-6 through bowl season.  I'm new to this and learned a hard lesson by betting on those teams, although part of this was about bowl season and not about the actual strength of the teams.  Admittedly, ASU and Baylor were horrendous bets, but I don't know if anyone could have predicted that Stoops would tote out an entirely new offense against Bama.  Auburn is the outlier in the group of four teams that you listed.

Betting whole account, parlay, let's go.

9-1, punks.

Ole Miss -3
Oregon -14
ASU group bloodbath -16
UCLA -7
UCLA/VT over 47

Spreads: 3-0 (Pitt +7, Louisville -6, Kansas St -7)
O/U: 2-0 (Boise/OSU under 65, Syracuse/Minn under 48)

Who wants to touch me?

When Oregon State last won a game, Clemson was a national title contender.

Boise's QB is out and the D shows up angry due to losing their coach.  Thoughts?

Well, playing the #1 ranked scoring defense does tend to pull a team's average down.






Before you post an angry response, this is just a joke.

Man, a lot of differences with what I have.  Out of what I've picked/will pick I have:

Minn -4 - I think they're a sneaky good team and Syracuse hasn't shown much this season.
Miami +3.5 - Louisville has looked miserably average and Miami seems to be on an uptrend to end the season (despite losing Johnson)
South Carolina pk - Connor Shaw is just a winner.
OU/Bama under - I don't see OU being able to score much at all.
FSU -8.5 - I think they'll shut Auburn down.
Clemson +3.5 - I think Clemson will put up points and has a strong rush D.
Ole Miss -3 - Paul Johnson has is 1-5 in his last 6 bowl games.  With this game being within only a few points of a pick, I think betting against CPJ is a good bet.

Spooky, I'm just curious what your overall strategy in coming up with these power spreads is?  You don't have to go into details if you don't want.  I'm just curious about which factors you think are important from an analysis standpoint.

I'm only pointing out that the Auburn advocates on this board seem to place no limit on the ability of Auburn's offense to score.

Auburn is an exciting team and other that my own team, they were probably my favorite to watch this year, but they're going to whipped.

So, could the Seahawks stop Auburn?  What if they had a month to prepare?

This thread is almost as exciting as the game is going to be.

Before I get started, don't get me wrong, watching Auburn the last couple of weeks was one of the coolest things I've ever seen in college football.  I want to root for them so badly, but as Lee Corso says, "this is strictly business."

Due to Auburn's obvious weaknesses on defense, how much better does their offense have to be than FSU's offense to make up for the difference of the two defenses?  Just looking at the difference between the two teams' scoring defense (let's not read too much into this guys), we are talking something like 2 TDs.  I think it should be kept in mind that elite defenses tend to hold elite offenses to fewer points that the simple average of points allowed and points scored, respectively.  Auburn has an elite offense but not an elite defense, whereas FSU has elite both.

I found it funny how one poster said that with a month to prepare, Malzahn will have a lot of time to invent new plays.  Clearly, the month to prepare benefits FSU.  Auburn does seem to throw some wrinkles in there, but their offense is about varying a small number of plays.  With FSU's talent in the secondary, they'll be able to load the box and with the extra time to prepare, I don't see any way that they won't hold Auburn significantly under their averages over the last few weeks.

I think the best chance Auburn has of winning is that Winston finally starts acting like a freshman.  Of course, there has been exactly no evidence of this, but I don't think it can be completely ruled out.  If Auburn gets a lot early stops, both FSU and Auburn might start to believe that Auburn can win the game and that would be bad news for FSU.

I guess I'm one of the few people that like the under in this game.  I think FSU has the potential to shut Auburn down to a shocking extent.  Even if Auburn is able to move the ball, it will not come in the big chunks that were seen during the SEC championship.  They will have to work for the yards, which will eat up clock.  I would not be surprised if this game plays out a lot like the ACC championship (except for more scoring by Auburn) where excitement kept the game low-scoring in the first half but FSU eventually pulled away.  I see something like 38-24 FSU.  If you want to bet on Auburn, I think you should definitely parlay with the over.

In full disclosure, I'm a Clemson fan.

For those that don't know, South Carolina has beaten Clemson four straight years, all by double digits, most recently with a 27-17 win at Clemson against a better-than-mediocre Clemson team.  The spread opened at Clemson +6 and moved to +5 immediately.

In further full disclosure, I thought we would win the first three of the last four because I was a homer and last year I wasn't sure.  I've only started betting regularly this year, but in games where I've made a call (I've made more predictions than actual bets), I'm something like 7-2.  Like this game, both of the incorrect calls were away games where I predicted us to cover (NC State and Maryland).

What I've seen the last few weeks is almost certainly the best football that I've ever seen Clemson play in 10 years of being a fan.  The GT game was absolutely huge, because it showed how disciplined Clemson's defense has become.  In the past few years, Connor Shaw and even Dylan Thompson last year have absolutely torched Clemson by scrambling, especially on third down.  This is a factor that I think Clemson will largely eliminate this year because of its discipline on defense.  For the record, Clemson's defense has shown itself to be much improved all year, but because of the past few years against GT, that game stands out.

Chad Morris has a tendency to call shit plays during big games and who knows what he will do this weekend, but recently we've been doing two things well: running between the tackles and throwing deep balls.  Martavis Bryant, especially, has really started to shine.  When Morris tries to get too cute, bad things happen.  I'm not knowledgeable about South Carolina's defensive backs, but if Clemson is able run between the tackles and throw the ball deep at all, I really like Clemson's odds of not just covering, but winning the game.

One final factor: I've been a critic of Tajh Boyd for as long as he's been the starter but it's probably been more because of the way he communicates than his on-field performance (which has been inconsistent at best in big games).  I can't count the number of times I've heard him talk about "being a leader" or other bullshit.  However, the interviews with Boyd that I've seen in the last few weeks have shown a different man.  It seems like he doesn't give a shit and he's figured out that it's okay to just go out and play for himself, which I'd rather him be doing genuinely than trying to be something he's not.

I've watched a few South Carolina games, but I haven't seen many obvious patterns with them so I can't say as much.  At the beginning of the season, I didn't think anyone on their team cared about football.  This is obviously a game they want to win, but one other thing that helps Clemson is that South Carolina's most important game of the year is being played in Missouri on the same night.

Alright, tell me why I'm wrong.  Seriously, tell me.  I haven't bet yet.

Looking at their schedule, Duke doesn't seem to be an up-and-down team and so they don't seem to be subject to letdowns.  Their losses came to GT, a team that historically puts out a different product every week, and Pitt.  I didn't watch either of these, but I was told that the Pitt QB had the game of his life when they played Duke.

Duke had big wins against VT and Miami and came out and handled their business in the weeks after, albeit against very weak opponents.  Duke struggled early in the game last week, including a TD which seemed to be given to Wake by the refs, but when you consider that Wake had an extra week to prepare, I don't think it makes them look that bad.  The oddsmakers set up the Duke-Wake game as a trap but were trapped themselves (although the final spread was 7).

I've now watched Duke play VT, Miami, and Wake and they're a real team.  UNC is playing well, but are they really better than Duke?  I don't know as much about UNC.  This game is obviously fishy and I'll probably stay away.

I wish someone could give a specific breakdown on matchups.  That's not really my thing.