canadiantruth

adding:

Lakers/minny under 216.5

No lebron, goodwin, reddish, koloko, vanderbilt, or christina wood for the lakers.
Added factor, I like following line movement in preseason, especially early. Most books had this at 218 to open.

ytd 0-0

Nba is back and I couldn't be happier. Mlb and Nfl are break even for me at best. 

Today;

Breakers +29 @ jazz

These teams played last preseason and Jazz won by 20. Breakers kept their starting 5 in almost 30 minutes and jazz played theirs less than 20. I think the same thing happens today. The jazz bench would be marginally better than breakers starting 5, but the Breakers have played together more and will leave more on the court, IMO.  Easy cover, or maybe a backdoor, these inflated international team lines are too high. 

May add Lakers game....

Good luck.

Crazy how many great cappers have come and gone. 
Bodio and Mr Bator are the obvious picks. 

CMM and papashango for good stretches. 

Then whichever flash in the pan comes along until they either go tout, or get annoyed with chirping when they missed a game. I'm thinking Leaguecapper, Lasvegaslord, etc. 

I respect the grind of all the veterans. Appreciate any poster who explains their picks. I respect and appreciate the posters who explain their picks and try to help the new kids along. 

Much love to the entire forum,

CT

Basically every post I've seen is on the over. Looking back at these teams for the last few games, Boston isn't afraid to score and Indiana has been an over MACHINE (and the second worst defense in the league). Their last matchup sailed this number and they have traditionally played each other to pretty high numbers. 

All that being said, I am taking the under. Boston is experienced and should understand defense wins championships and they have a much better shot of winning on that end of the floor. This should also be a playoff type atmosphere, which always skews to the UNDER as well. 

Arbitrage is a tough way to squeeze a profit. 

A) you are initially betting against what you actually think will happen. 

B) you pay double vig and the live bet is usally -115 (1.85) or worse. 

Live lines move based on what is happening in live play. Sure, you might get lucky as your example pointed out, and they miss shots for the first quarter and it say, 25-25. At that point, the line would drop to your 230ish estimate. What if they start out hot and it's 35-35? Do you have any data to back up the idea that prime time games stay under? If you think that, why not just bet the under?

I wish you luck. As someone who spent half a season trying to middle, or in a sense, arbitrage, I can say it was not successful for me for the 2 reasons stated above. 

Bruno.

Any reason you know of for the box?

It's funny. I havn't been involved on covers for years because I got sick of the Mods not doing anything about obvious trolls and banning the few legitimate cappers we had, so stepped back and picked for myself for a few years.

The first week I come back, happy to find a capper on a hot streak, just starting to ramp up to get my own picks going again, and they ban him. 

Nice to see covers never changed. 

*edit - I have no idea if he can post. The management, mods and rules are a fluid environment with seemingly little permanency. They could back in the day, but who knows in 2022?

I'm a bit behind on covers rules, why did Bruno get boxed?

ytd 1-4

yesterday 0-2

Bkingsrep- get outta here man. It's god damned preseason. Players sit, deep bench/fringe nba players get 20+ minutes a night. If you know anything about sports capping, it's that money management is key. Yup, I'll go on losing streaks, as will you (if you actually capped your own games), but I'll also go on winning streaks. I've been profitable every season but one over the last 15 years, some of those big money. It's a hobby for me, pays for snowboards and kayaks and toys.  Anyway, sorry to anyone still here for the rant. I always end up posting a few weeks then stop because I can't handle the haters. 

Todays play (disclaimer, I can't win every game);

miami @ houston +5.5 (1u, -107)

No write up, I want to cap the NFL game. 

Good luck,

CT

ytd 1-2

yesterday 0-1

Big collapse by washington, just a reminder that money mangement is often as, if not more important than the quality of your picks. Shop for the best line, don't chase, find a capping strategy and stick to it. A bit of a frustrating day, every one of my leans was right except the game that lost. 

Todays plays;

spurs -2.5 @ pistons (1u, -110)
Pistons are missing between 6 and 8 players for this contest. All reports indicate the spurs are happy and healthy, with a new style of ball which we saw in the first preseason game. They really are a deep team, I think they streamroll preseason. 

utah moneyline @ dallas (1u, +145)

Luka/Porzingas playing first half only, Finny-smith, nitiklina and powell will not play. Gobert and Ingles seem to be in (likely FH only). I expect Donovan Mitchel to shoot better. Pretty much just a value play here. 

Good luck, 
CT

I love seeing people betting preseason. 

ytd 1-1

Tough one yesterday, Spoelstra stayed with his available rotation players much longer than expected. 

Todays play;
Wizards moneyline @ houston (1u, -105)

Wizards traded away Westbrook and picked up depth. It should serve them well to have nba players running most of the game. Houston has a ton of question marks outside their starting 5 and will be a crazy mess of rookies and some fringe nba players. Coach Silas has been talking about teaching his players where to be on the floor, their defensive and offensive schemes will be very, very far from polished yet. 

I really like the bulls too, Donovan has publicly said he will keep his main rotation players in to get some good run. That is a big spread for preseason though. Too much opportunity for a back door cover. 

Good luck, 
CT

I really like the warriors depth tonight over portland as well, but will have to dig deeper tonight. May be worth looking for anyone with a bit of time today. 

ytd 1-0

I think I'll try to just post in this one thread on the days I make it into post. No sense littering the main page with so few people around.

Today's plays;

hawks moneyline @ heat (1u, +145)

Hawks are definitely missing some depth, but they are also the younger hungrier team. If we remove the players missing, but then assume both lowry, butler and adebayo will play MAYBE 12 minutes each....it's a close contest. Mcmillan has stated he wants his players to play hard in short minutes/short rotations, I expect spoelstra to go as deep as possible here too. If you wait on this line, it is likely to get to +150 but I have to get to work. 

Good luck, 

CT

ytd 0-0

Welcome back to another preseason. Loose lines = available profit. I'll try to post my plays this preseason, but always end up getting burnt out with the process and haters. Preseason goal is 5 units. Whole season is 15u.

Todays play;

lakers/nets under 221.5 (-110, 1u)
Simple enough play, there are no stars playing in this. Aldridge and Millsap will play the first q, which I'm hoping sets the tone for a slower, grindy type game. Not sure there is anough legitimate nba talent left to get to 221. I almost had that line at 222.5, but it dropped quick. Typically, following line moves for the first 6-7 days of preseason is profitable. 

On another note, if you anyone wants just basically gauranteed profits, bet every single underdog moneyline all of preseason. I'll try to run some loose numbers tonight, but has traditionally been a good bet. 

Good luck, 
CT

@jdubb2584

Thanks for the picks, you've been a quiet roll around here the last few days. I've tailed a few of your picks lately as I don't really bet mlb, but wanted a bit of degen action. 

I appreciate your plays.  Just wanted to reach out and thank you.

Hey mac, 

Been lurking around for awhile, good to see your picks every week. 

I'm on the same side tonight, 

Good luck to us. 

@HappyKane

 When this guy says something, I tend to listen. 

Good luck. 

Came onto covers for the first time in months for this thread. 

I know these games even out in the long run, but man was this one painful today.