captailor

Nice call

Isn’t Baylor in Texas?

I don’t think the fatigue factor matters much with the college kids but no way I’m playing a double digit favorite in these conference tournaments. I think TCU covers.

Vegas since you’re so good at predicting do you care to put your predicted plays down for us to tail?

Good thing I actually turned the game on and watched before making the pick. Houston turned up right as I was gonna bet Cincinnati. Laying off. 

I’m gonna hit Cinci +0.5 Live. Houston looks like they would rather rest and get ready for the Tournament. Cinci is hungry to get in.

Finally someone with common sense points this out. That fatigue factor isn’t a good angle for college teams. We were playing 2-3 games a day when I played high school ball in the summer then would do it again the next day. 

MrIowa did have a point. He could have elaborated further though instead of just saying not to play conference tournament games though. I saw the post but didn’t listen because it had no substance to it. 

The regular season was waaay easier than this. 

I also had ASU, Nebraska, and Michigan. I had Wake Forest too. This is my first year betting March Madness but if it’s going to be this way during the NCAA tournament, I’m just going to find another sport to make money on. NCAA tournaments are a joke. 

@iConsciousness

just gotta be sharper and more selective. I believe the tide will turn today. Has to. Good luck. 

Nevada @ SDSU -12

I am trying to find an angle where Nevada covers with its starting point guard out visiting San Diego State but I just don't see it. SDSU has the #1 ranked defense in the country and has been beaten its last 3 opponents at home by an average of almost 27 points. Nevada recently lost by 11 to Colorado State, by 29 at home to Utah State, by 11 to UNLV and by 17 to Fresno State. San Diego States offense may not be on par with any of those teams but their defense is much better than the previously mentioned teams and a lot of their offense is generated by their defense. I can't envision a scenario in which Nevada, without its starting point guard, comes into San Diego and scores more than 55 nor can I see State scoring less than 70. It also helps that San Diego State is coming off a tough loss and will be motivated to play better today. They are an NCAA Tournament team IMO but they still need to get wins to secure their spot. If anyone sees something that I don't or feels like Nevada will cover, please let me know. 

NCAA YTD 41-31 (57%)

1-4 yesterday. 1-6 the last two days. This is by far the worst stretch I have had this year so its time to go back to the drawing board and review what went wrong and try to right the ship for today’s play which is SDSU -12.

Butler +1.5 (Loss) – This is a play that I would not make again on the account of overestimating Butlers defense at home. Reviewing their previous home games against Creighton and Georgetown, they gave up 55 and 53 points but reviewing closer, their recent with Georgetown was a 2 meeting and they gave up 71 points to Seton Hall, 87 points to Xavier, and 75 points to Connecticut all at home. These were closer indications to what happened yesterday as those teams are closer in offensive efficiency and pace to St. Johns than Creighton and Georgetown. Butler should have been blown out. The right play win or lose was St. Johns and the over.

Michigan State -2.5 (Loss) – Its hard to handicap the home team having its 2 most efficient game of the 21 century yesterday against a team ranked 47 in defensive efficiency. No signs pointed to Rutgers shooting 61% for the whole game. Rutgers does however play teams at tough at home and were coming off of a home loss. This was just a bad beat. In hindsight, I should have left the spread alone. I rarely play unders in college basketball but the under 134 statistically would have been the correct play as Rutgers averages 53 points per game versus teams in the top 50 nationally in defense.

Boise State -21.5 (Loss) – Yes the spread was large and on account of how inefficient Boise States offense is as well as their lack of free throw shooting capability, this play should have been left alone as Boise out of all the top teams in the Mountain West is the most susceptible to being backdoored, however the spread was this high for a reason as Boise State is easily 25 points better than San Jose State. Boise State led by 29 points with 9:43 left in the game. They ended up scoring only 7 more points and going 1-15 the rest of the way. How do you only score 7 points in 10 minutes against the 322th worst defense in the country? This was a bad beat and only someone trying to be overly sharp would state that San Jose State +21.5 was the right play as there would have really been no way to predict what happened the final 10 minutes. You would be choosing San Jose State and “hoping” for a backdoor cover if you made this play. I have been backdoored in the past by other teams when playing the spread and Boise actually failed to cover against Air Force and also to New Mexico as a large favorite. Air Force was predictable because of their Pace. New Mexico was a fluke as Boise missed about 20 layups and shot 55% from the FT line and failed to cover the spread by half a point. The stats do however point out that Boise State typically gives up between 57 and 60 points at home and if one were to assume that Boise was going to cover, then Boise should have scored somewhere between 78-85 points. The over in this game was the right play. I can’t say Boise was the right play but if I had to play this again, I choose Boise State to cover.

St. Thomas vs Oral Roberts – Over 160 (Loss) – St.Thomas failed to score in the final 5 minutes of this game as the score was 74-66 with 4:53 to go and ended up being 88-66. The game failed to go over the total by 6 points. Looking closer, St. Thomas has struggled offensively in its last 6 games, all loses averaging 65 points per game in that span. They have given up 83 points per game in that span as well. The right side would have been the under and Oral Roberts to cover the spread.

NCAA YTD 40-27

Plays

Butler +2

Michigan State -2

Boise State -21

Oral Robert’s Over 159

Gonzaga -13

Good Luck

cbssportsline I believe it’s 9.99 per month but worth it

0-2 day. First time for everything. Don’t think I’ve had an 0’fer day all season. 

40-27 NCAA YTD.

Leaving the night game alone. Tomorrow is a clean slate. I’ll get it back tomorrow.

Take Care

@cheech1972

 BetMGM. The game is now tied. Line is -2.5

Yeah they should. I got Toledo -1.5 for the game. We should both win. 

Thank you much appreciated. Thought VMI was still the right play TBH.