CFBLMONSTER

Week 9 Recap:  Went 5-5 and minus 3.3 stars.  In a little of a mid-season rut.  I felt A&M should have covered and have no issue with that pick.  Looking at Purdue & Mich St – those should have been games to lay off even though I felt they would cover – especially Purdue as they are turning out to be far worse than I thought even in the horrible Big Ten West. 

Total now is 41-26 and plus 31.9 stars. 

On to this week – I have felt better with totals and have more this week.  

5* Okl – Okl St Over 61

4* VT – Lou Over 47.5

4* Kansas St – Tex Under 49.5  

3* Maryland +8.5

3* Texas A&M – Miss Under 54.5

2* Okl St +6

2* Minn FH -0.5

2* NW +5.5

Not sure I will have time this week for detailed write ups.  Oklahoma game should have good pace to it and Okl St has been the top off in big 12 play with a below avg def.  Okl def has shown some cracks and might be without their def leader this week.  Louisville & VT are both balanced – both coming off dominant def performances but I think both offenses are playing well and should have some success.  Reason for Minn in FH is Newton is out for targeting – he is one of the top rated def lineman in PFF and is a future first rounder.  Illinois off a bye could work one of two ways – could be sluggish or have a great gameplan.  I like how Minn is playing and they got their def leader back last week.  Really like MD this week as I don’t think Penn St is that great on off and they haven’t been impressive in any conf game but Iowa – MD will pressure them and they have the better QB

Final Card

4* Texas A&M -15  

3.5* UCF FH -3.5

3* Lou – 5.5

3* Purdue +2.5

2.5* WV-UCF FH Over 30.5

1.5* Kansas +10, 1* Kansas FH +6,  0.5*FH ML +210

2* Wisconsin +14.5

1.5* SC – Texas A&M Under 53.5

1.5* Mich St +7

1* Purdue – Neb Under 39.5

Good luck everyone.  I might add 1 more tomorrow night

Adding 3.5* Central  Florida FH -3.5

Last week UCF had several players sick and Plumlee was receiving IV up till the game.  If you wonder why he didn’t run that is why – plus maybe still careful with the knee.  He says his knee feels fine.  Surprising they were able to stay with Okl with the virus hitting the team.  I think they will run all over WV in this one – WV giving up 5.3 ypc in conf games.  UCF has a lot of speed and is explosive in the run game going against a def that is struggling.  UCF is a much better home team and I expect them to jump on WV in this one. 

Prediction:  UCF by 14

Adding 2.5* WV – UCF FH Over 30.5

WV should be able to score some as well in this one as UCF has struggled against the run. 

Prediction: 42 pts

* Michigan St +7.5

Was on the fence for this one as I was concerned with the mindset of Mich St.  Barrow entering the portal this week had me off them but now he withdrew his name has me back on them.  A team captain leaving would have made it tough to take them as you worry about mindset.  Him coming back I think will provide some energy and that was something mentioned when reading about him talking to his teammates.  I think Mich St is a team that is better off being on the road with all the distractions.  They should have beat Rutgers and Iowa – outplayed both of them.  They have played excellent defenses so far in conference – Iowa, Mich, Rutgers, and MD.  Still their run def is only allowing 3.36 ypc and 108 ypg in conf.  They are -53 ypg and Minn is -72 ypg diff in conference.  Both blasted by Mich – toss that game.  Minn won in Iowa and Mich St outplayed Iowa as well but lost.  Turnovers have killed Mich St as they are last in the big ten at -8 and have 14 in last 4 games.  This triggered the switch to Houser but not much improvement in this area as he as 2 picks and team has 5 turnovers in his starts.  One start was at Rutgers in the rain and the other against a tremendous Mich team.  Minn is plus 5 in conf games and this is the biggest risk of the bet as Minn has been better in this area.

I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched.  Weather will be cold but looks like it should be clear.  State has held each of their last 3 opponents to 120 yds or less and under 3.6 ypc.  Even as bad as last week was Mich only ran for 120 yds and 3.53 ypc – it at least shows they won’t be run over which is what Minn likes to do. 

Prediction: Minn by 3

3* Louisville -5.5

Louisville off a bye and they have been much better at home this year.  I don’t see Leonard being healthy if he plays.  If he  is out it would make the bet even better.  Louisville has balance and they have defended the run well this year (121 ypg and 3.64 ypc allowed in conf plus held ND to 44 yds rushing).  I think Louisville controls this game and gets a nice win. 

Prediction: Louisville by 14

Adding 

3* Louisville -5.5

1.5* Mich St +7

1.5* Kansas +10

1* Kansas FH +6

0.5* Kansas FH ML +210

Kansas is off a bye and Okl off a lackluster performance.  I like Kansas off the bye here as the rest should greatly help them for this game.  I also think they will put some things in the gameplan for Okl with the extra prep so I can see them coming out with a lot of energy in this one and getting a lead at half.  Might be some rain in the game as well and should be cool – this helps Kansas.  Oklahoma has covered all but 1 spread but a couple of those right on the number.  They are down one of their top receivers and their off is only gaining 5.92 ypp in conference (still third overall in ypg, Kansas gaining 7.02 ypp in conf).  The Okl def has been solid but still giving up 416 ypg and 5.66 ypp in conf (Kansas is last in conf).  Okl has several games where they have not looked dominant at all and now going on the road against a rested team should be a challenge.  Kansas will run a lot of motion and misdirection in this one and should be able to create some plays.

Kansas should be fired up in this one and I could see them winning at half and possibly winning the game.  I think the Okl def will adjust and Okl will find a way to win a close one. 

Prediction:  Kansas by 4 at half,  Okl by 3 for the game   

2* Wisconsin +14.5

Ohio State off an emotional win and now going on the road at night.  Ohio St should get some players back this week which will help them.  The Ohio St off hasn’t been as explosive this year and this is a big number to lay on the road.  Wisc has been a little disappointing to me as I expected them to dominate the west and they clearly have not.  I think they can build off that comeback win from last week and should have some confidence coming into this one.  The Ohio State def is one of the best in the nation so it will be tough sledding for Wisc.  I think their def will play well also as they are only giving up 308 ypg in conf (Ohio St 238 ypg allowed). 

Wisc should have a good crowd for this game that should provide a spark.  Ohio State off a big win I could see them struggling some in this game.  Ohio St is clearly better and should win this game but I like Wisc to hang around

Prediction: Ohio St by 10

3* Purdue +2.5

On the surface this line would look puzzling to most as it would seem Neb should be fav by more.  Couple main points about this bet.  Purdue is off a bye and Walters commented this week that this is the first time Card has looked healthy since the Illinois game.  Neb is extremely banged up – they have 3 off lineman out, top 2 receivers out, 2 of top 3 running backs, and a starting def back (both their punt returner and kickoff ret in this list).  Look at their game last week – they couldn’t move it on NW.  This off has scored 10, 7, 20, and 17 in conf games and now are banged up.  Purdue def isn’t great but should be good against a bad off as Walters will pressure them.  Purdue has not been good against the run but with all the injuries to Neb they should be able to load up and play the run well especially since they had an extra week of prep.

Might be a little wind and some rain – looking more clear now so might be just rain but keep an eye out.    Neb can’t pass (138 ypg with a 2-7 ratio in big ten) and Purdue has the better QB in this one.  The Neb def is good but Card should be able to make enough plays in this one and it wouldn’t surprise me if Purdue creates some turnovers.  The Purdue kicker is back which will help as the Neb kicker isn’t very good Purdue might have an edge there as well.  I look for a low scoring game and Purdue to get the win. 

Prediction:  Purdue by 4

1* Purdue – Neb Under 39.5

Low total so I only give it 1 star.  Might be some weather.  Purdue has had 4 games scoring 20 or less and Neb has had 5.  All the Neb injuries on off drive this total as I think the Neb def will contain Purdue. 

Prediction: 30 pts

4* Texas A&M -15

A&M plus 87 and SC -108 in yd diff in SEC play.  A&M off a bye and should be rested and healthier.  This bet comes down to the SC injuries.  There is an article about how the off line is so banged up its impacting practice.  Several starters in doubt for this week.  Receivers also banged up – Wells is still out (hasn’t played yet this year but was top WR) and Brown doubtful and Legette (top receiver) left last game injured. SC was mauled last week against Missouri – 5 sacks and under pressure on 41% of drop backs.  Game was over at half and score actually misleading as I felt Miss could have won by 40 plus (315-98 yds at half – score 24-3).  This week going up against a rested A&M def and I don’t see how they move the ball.  Rattler should be under pressure all game.  SC gives up 4 sacks a game in SEC play and A&M has 23 sacks in 4 SEC games.  SC has second worst def in ypg allowed in SEC play at 473 (A&M second with 262 allowed)

I think this game will play out more like the games against Aub and Ark for A&M but a little worse as those teams play some defense.  I think things will be ugly for SC in this one as even Beamer commented that he has never seen anything like this in his career in terms of injuries.  I don’t see SC getting past 10 points without a turnover or a def breakdown or special teams play.  A&M should get back on track this week

Prediction:  Texas A&M by 25  

1.5* SC – Texas A&M Under 53.5

Tough to give double digit points and go under.  I do like the SC team total under but I am so capped in books I can’t even bet it like I want so just playing the under.  I think SC will have a tough time scoring and the A&M off hasn’t lit things up so I see them getting up and sitting on it.  There is the risk they really roll and put it over almost by themselves but I think SC can keep them in the 30s and A&M could hold SC to single digits. 

Prediction: 45 pts

Week 8 Recap:  Went 3-5 and minus 6.9 stars.  The TCU play was a head scratcher as that looked like one of the worst bets ever.  Not even sure what I was watching in that game as that is the definition of being wrong about a game.  Some tough luck with the Tenn plays – up 20-7 and controlling the game I felt the spread would be fine but lost both the spread and total.  Got some good fortune with the Okl FH total so it balanced it out.  Losing weeks 2 of the last 3 so hopefully this week will be a bounce back. 

Total now is 36-21 and plus 35.2 stars. 

On to this week – still looking through a few games.  Below is what I have so far. 

4* Texas A&M -15  

3* Purdue +2.5

1.5* Kansas +10, 1*Kansas FH +6,  0.5*FH ML +210

2* Wisconsin +14.5

1.5* SC – Texas A&M Under 53.5

1* Purdue – Neb Under 39.5

Will be looking at Cincy and possibly the under – want to see how the weather looks tomorrow.  Rain & Wind would be an advantage for Cincy.  Also looking at Minn game and Louisville.  Washington as well 

Adding 3* Missouri FH -4.5

missouri is covered in FB last 5 games.  SC has not cov last 3 in FH.  SC is worst def in SEC and worst pass def.  They have to blitz to get pressure and Brady Cook has a 128 QBR against the blitz.  Missouri is third in SEC in passing and Cook is having a great year.  SC top rated corner on PDF is number 49 in SEC.  SC without their best off lineman and Wells remains out.  Missouri has been a lot better at home the past couple years.  SC is off a crushing loss and is around -120 ypg in sec play.  I think Missouri jumps on them early.  

prediction - Missouri by 11

Adding 3* Tenn-Bama Under 49

For reasons listed above.  Both teams have been terrible in the redzone – Bama 46% and Tenn 41% TD in SEC games.  Only A&M is worse.  Both defenses are good – Bama 46% and Tenn 55% TD allowed.  Both teams have been very good at not allowing plays over 10 yds.  They are the top 2 overall defenses in SEC according to PFF.  This includes top 2 in pressure and coverage.  Also top 2 special teams ratings in SEC.  All good for the under.  I see this has a defensive game with points hard to come by. 

Prediction: 39 pts

Final Card

4* TCU +7.5 with 1* ML +235

4.5* UCF-Okl FH over 32.5

3* Tenn-Bama Under 49

3* Tex – 21.5

2* Cincy -1

2* Tenn +8.5

2* Minn  +5.5

Should be final card – possible I add a game but doubtful.  Hope the info helps – best of luck to everyone. 

2* Tenn +8.5

Should be able to get 9 or 9.5 now if you like the game and haven’t bet it.  Tough to go against Bama but there are some matchups I like in this game.  The main thing about this game is the line of scrimmage when Bama has the ball.  Bama has major issues protecting Milroe.  Their left tackle Proctor is a true freshman and has given up 7 sacks on the year.  The left tackle position has allowed 10 sacks on the year (5 last week).  Tenn as a team has only allowed 9 all year.  Tenn has one of the best DE combos in the nation and James Pearce is the top rated pass rusher in the SEC (second in nation) according to PFF – he has 6 sacks on year.  He will be lined up over Proctor.  This is going to be a major issue for Bama.  Baron is on the other side and is highly rated as well and has 5 sacks.  Bama has allowed 31 sacks (130 in the nation) and Tenn avgs 3.4 per game against FBS (twelfth in nation).  Tenn is also sixth in the nation at plays over 10 yds allowed (53 in 5 games against FBS)

The other thing is Bama isn’t running the ball as well this year (3.36 ypc in 4 SEC games) and now going against an excellent front who defends the run well also (fifth in SEC games).  Bama has also been terrible in the redzone – 46% TD in 4 SEC games.  Add in they have allowed 7.25 tkl/loss per game in SEC games (sec to last in SEC) and Tenn should do well defensively.

On the other side Bama has the advantage as their def is very good.  One thing I do like is Tenn is eighth in the nation in tkl/loss allowed and 23 in sacks allowed in nation at 1.6 per game.  So they do a good job not taking negative plays.  They are also good on third downs – 48% in 3 conf games.  Tenn runs well and was able to rush for 232 yds against an excellent A&M def last week so even against a very good rush def in Bama they might be able to run some in this one.  Tenn hasn’t been great passing so they will have to find a way to make some plays passing. 

Bama rarely loses at home and this will be a very difficult game for Tenn.  Being at home will help the Bama off line some.  The one thing I don’t like about the game is its only the second true road game for Tenn and they lost their only one at Florida and didn’t play well.  They did have their bye before the A&M game and Bama has yet to have their bye so they should be more rested.  I like the matchup of the Tenn def against the Bama offense and I think their def will keep them in this game.  It would not be surprising to me if Tenn won but most likely Bama will find a way to win a close defensive game. 

Prediction: Bama by 5

2* Cincy -1

Spread has gone up to -2.5 and I’ve even seen 3.  Baylor is off a bye and Cincy had their bye before last week.  I don’t think Baylor is a very good team this year and Cincy is a little better and at home.  Baylor can’t stop the run – they are thirteenth in the big 12 against FBS teams at 192 ypg and 4.89 ypc allowed (5.37 ypc in 3 conf games).  Running the ball is what Cincy does – they are fourth in the big 12 at 197 ypg and 4.57 ypc.  They are an aggressive def and are second in the big 12 in pressure rating at 79.8 going against a Baylor team that struggles to protect the QB and gives up 3.6 sacks/gm against FBS teams.  I like both of these matchups for Cincy. 

Cincy got handled by Iowa St last week which doesn’t look good but Iowa St continues to get better and they are a pretty good team right now.  Cincy did hang with Okl and really dominated BYU but lost.  Baylor looked terrible against a Texas Tech team that is really looking below avg right now and they got fortunate to come back against a UCF team without Plumlee who doesn’t look very good right now.  I don’t think Aranda is doing a very good job with this program – this is year 3 and it is now his team.  He won with players he didn’t recruit.  I am not a fan of Satterfield either but Cincy looks better on the field than what I see from Baylor plus they are at home.  The Baylor def is last in big 12 in total def ypg at 431 against FBS teams (Cincy is third at 340).  Even though Aranda is known for defense they are not good on that side of the ball and Cincy has the better defense in this one.  I think Cincy will be able to run the ball and pressure Shapen in this one and get the win. 

Prediction: Cincy by 5

2* Minn +5.5

Line down to 3.5.  Before I get into this game a little lets clarify one thing – the big ten west is awful.  I thought maybe Wisconsin might get it going but apparently not so we are left with a division that is not good at all.  None of them can play with Mich, Ohio St, or Penn St – they all have and would get destroyed.

Iowa lost All for the season so they now have nothing in the passing game.  Iowa has won like they are playing for the past couple of years but this year they are even worse on offense and really aren’t winning the turnover margin like normal.  They avg 206 ypg in conf games and if you take out the big run in each of the last 2 games that goes down to 169.  They have completed 6 passes in 3 of their 4 big ten games and last week threw for 37 yds.  Give them credit – their def and special teams are excellent.  This week they are playing a Minn team that hasn’t been good either but I will explain why I will play them 

Couple points for why I like this bet.  Minn is off a bye – they will be rested compared to Iowa who is banged up and has yet to have their bye and off a very physical game at Wisc.  I think Minn will be prepared for this game.  They have also ran the ball well on Iowa the last 2 years – last year over 300 yds (by far the most against Iowa) and the year before 189 yds (only Mich ran for more on Iowa).  They have a big O-line (3 over 320 lbs).  They aren’t as good on off this year but I think their style can be successful against Iowa as they don’t have a lot of negative plays and should be able to get in manageable third downs.   Last – their kicker is excellent (at least as good as Iowa’s) and they have a solid punter (not as good as Taylor but nobody really is).  This is big in a game like this.  Iowa creates so much field position with Taylor that it often gets overlooked. 

Minn should get Taylor back (rb) and Lindenberg is suppose to make his debut (not confirmed but likely) which would be big as he is their best def player.  Minn has outplayed Iowa the past 2 years and lost (both close) and overall has not faired well against Iowa.  I like Rossi the def coordinator and I think he will have them ready to shut down the Iowa offense.  Offensively – Minn isn’t very good but I think you can run on Iowa and Minn has show that with their scheme and size.  I think they can do enough in this one.  Minn also only has turned the ball over 8 times this year and are plus 2 compared to Iowa who has 10 and is plus 1 in margin.

Iowa continues to win and is tough at home so it would be hard to play this much more than a 2 star play as a result.  Iowa can lose to anyone in the big ten with the way they play.  I think Minn can match them in all 3 phases and this will be a defensive struggle.  They are rested and should be prepared off the bye.  I think this will be within 3 pts either way and Minn is capable of winning the game. 

Prediction: Minn by 1

3* Texas -21.5

I would play this at any number – maybe down it a star if it gets to 24.  You could also FH it as well.  This will be the first game for Texas after the bye week.  Coming off a loss they have no margin for error and will need to win out so I expect a very focused Texas team in this one.  Playing another opponent from Texas will help as well.  I think Houston and BYU are the two worst teams in the big 12.  Houston was outplayed against WV and gave up over 500 yds to a very average offense.  This Houston defense is not very good.  I think Texas will be able to score as much as they want to in this one.  Smith has shown signs at QB but this week he is going against a top notch defense and I expect the Texas front to create issues for him. 

I think there is a drop off this year in the big 12 after Texas & Okl.  When they play the lesser teams the only question will be on their focus for the game.  With Texas coming off a loss I believe they are itching to get back on the field.  They are one of the top teams in the country and should show that in this one.  They should dominate Hou on both sides of the ball.  I think this game will look like the game against Baylor or maybe how TCU played against Hou.  I just don’t see Houston doing much in this one and Texas will want to be impressive as their goal is to make the playoff so winning impressively each week helps. They will be a hard team to bet against the rest of the year.  I expect them to dominate this one and win easily

Prediction: Texas by 31   

4.5* UCF-Okl FH Over 32.5

Both rank in top 25 in seconds per play so pace should be good.  Plumlee will start for UCF which also helps.  I think this goes over game total as well but the logic in FH is in case Okl gets up and UCF struggles to score.  It’s the only way I see this going under the game total.  In their 3 conf games UCF has given up 490 ypg and 44, 36, and 51 pts.  Now they face the best offense they have played so I don’t see them slowing down Okl.  On the other side UCF can score and has good speed on offense.  I think they will be better with Plumlee and they are off a bye which helps.  In their 3 conf games they avg 415 ypg and have scored 31, 35, and 22 all without Plumlee (he barely played at Kansas). 

The pace will be there and with both coming off a bye I expect them to show some things the other team didn’t prepare for.  I think there will be a lot of possessions which should equal points.  I could see 7 possessions each in this one which means we only need 5 tds in 13-14 total possessions. 

Prediction: 42 pts    

Before I add some picks I am going to comment on something.  Whatever you do in your betting try and be consistent.  If you want to follow picks of someone you need to be all in and do it – not just pick and choose.  I could see going all in and giving it a certain dollar amount or amount of time but if you follow and then after one week of losing quit that is not smart.  Everyone has losing weeks – EVERYONE – if you don’t think so you are naïve.  Same with fading – all in or nothing. 

The other option you have is to look at people’s picks you respect and use it as a resource and look into the game and see if you like it.  At the end of the day you have to be honest with yourself – do you win at this or not?  If you don’t then you might want to re-evaluate.  If you do then have confidence in what you do and don’t let people sway you – its why I say if you like the opposite side of one of my plays then I encourage you to play it.  Reason is that if you don’t and play what I or someone else gives and it loses you will be twice as mad.  People always will be more upset playing someone else’s picks than there own. 

Last – have respect for others.  It takes guts to post picks and accurately keep track of your picks.  Takes more guts to do write ups because sometimes write ups will be dead wrong.  Nobody knows everything so if you like the opposite side be respectful – maybe bring a valid point to the discussion for the opposite side.  At the end of the day this is a grueling thing we do – it is very difficult to win for an entire season.  Anyone can have a good week or two but how  many get through it all successfully for a year?  And when successful you deal with these despicable books that cut u off - people wouldn’t believe what I have dealt with.  Last point – not to harp on these people but below are actual records from 3 so called experts.  I respect Phil Steel – I use his magazine but his power sweep has not been profitable for a while – take a look at this year.  Point being – what we do is hard so you have to be realistic – if you expect to hit 80-90% each week you are dreaming. 

The Bear 21-26-1

Stanford Steve 11-19-2

Phil Steele PS – 16-27 and -36.5 stars

Adding

4* UCF-Okl FH Over 32.5

2* Tenn +8.5

Adding 3* Texas -21.5.  Forgot that one in the original thread.  Can't see that line getting better and only see it there in Betrivers. 

4* TCU +7.5

Hoover looked excellent last week for TCU and showed he can really throw the ball even better than I expected.  It will be his first road start so that introduces some risk.  Their def has only given up 301 ypg in their 4 conf games.  I like that their def has been playing well since the opener.  They returned 7 off the def from last year and are very athletic.  Kansas St is off a nice win where TT was down to their third string QB who is a true freshman for half the game.  They also played Johnson their true freshman QB along with Howard.  Not sure if they will move to Johnson moving forward or continue to rotate.  Johnson is fast and can run.  TT did have 480 yds off as that is the second straight game K St has been outgained. 

Kansas St is plus 26 and TCU plus 132 in ypg diff against FBS teams.  Kansas St isn’t as strong this year as Howard has struggled at times and I think losing Green for the year has hurt the defense.  Kansas St also has Will Lee out – not sure if he will play this week but he is a starting corner.  K St is last in pass def ypg given up in the conference and now plays a team that can pass well (TCU number 3 in conf at 302 ypg against FBS – 447 yds last week).  The pass def is the weakness of K St – it is why I played Missouri against them a few weeks back.  K St does have a good off line and runs the ball pretty well.  Johnson is fast but this week TCU is an athletic defense so it will help them in defending against the zone read run game.  K St is ninth in total offense ypg and eleventh in pass off ypg in the conference. 

TCU has yet to have their bye which isn’t ideal as K st had one a few weeks ago.  This is the last game before their bye and that should energize them.   TCU has the top rated def in PFF in the big 12 and is number 1 in coverage rating with their excellent secondary so they should be able to dial in on the run.  TCU could easily be 6-1 and lets face it – they would destroy Colorado if they played them now.  I think they will finish the season strong and I like their defense which is big for playing on the road.  I love games where I get at least 7 points and I think the team can win.  I expect this to be a close game and I think TCU gets the win here and if they don’t we are plus a TD. 

Prediction:  TCU by 4

Week 7 Recap:  Went 8-4-1 and plus 8.3 stars.  Was a solid week.  Outside of the push none of the games were that close as only one was within 7 of the spread in the wins or losses (and that was a FH bet).   The Rutgers under shows why taking low totals always has risk as 21 points were on unforced turnovers.  Looking at the games I felt Aub was the bad bet of the group.  Not sure what happened in the AF game as 38 pts at half was pretty unreal with those teams.  The wins were all excellent bets and covered easily – Bama wasn’t looking good till they took over at end of first qtr – really dominated the half.   

Total now is 33-16 and plus 42.1 stars. 

On to this week – couple early picks below.  Still have more to look at.  Won’t be as many plays this week in looking at the slate of games. Might not be able to write up everything as I travel this week.  

4* TCU +7.5

2* Minn +5.5

2* Cincy -1

1* TCU ML +235

I would lock TCU in now – not worth the risk of waiting as I think its way more likely to go down than up and considering 7.5 is a key number I would grab it.  Not sure what the Iowa line will do – was 6.5 in FD for a bit but seeing 5 and 5.5.  With All now out as well for them I would be surprised if it goes up but Minn hasn’t been great.  I think it will stay about where it is.  Cincy – not sure on that one either but am happy with 1 so I don’t risk it going to 3. 

@arubadk

 I think both teams understand it’s a rivalry and that it is important to fans.  I don’t know if that gives either an advantage.  USC will be ready to play - the rivalry impacts the crowd more in these games so might give more energy for ND to feed off.