CountyTigers

Broncos @ Bears

I feel as if Brandon Marshall will score a TD. Da Bears have some good backups, who have had playing time. At the end of last season, Chicago start their third string RB and QB starting. Peyton Manning will take one hit, then be taken out. And we all have seen how bad teams are without Peyton. In what little action Jay Cutler will see, he will play well against his former team.

Pick: Bears -3

Steelers @ Eagles

This is the most somber game of the week. After the passing of Andy Reid’s son, the Eagles will not have their mind in the GAME (emphasis on game). After Tony Dungy lost his child in 2005, the Colts lost. Penn State lost their game after the scummy Sandusky scandal. Philadelphia 21-31 in preseason games since Andy Reid’s tenure started for the Eagles. The Steelers are 16-5 in the preseason since Mike Tomlin took over in Pittsburgh.

Pick: Steelers pick’em  (Levin Lock)
Pick: Under 35

Friday-August 10, 2012

Browns @ Lions

Great records in the preseason mean mean nothing, EXCEPT when gambling. Jim Schwartz has a 10-2 record since taking over for the Lions in 2009. You know what happened in 2008? The Lions went 0-16 in the regular season, but 4-0 in the preseason. The Browns are 5-11 in the preseason in that time frame. The Browns have two things going for them in this game: the Browns have 3 NFL worthy STARTING QBs on their roster  and something at the end of this video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZzgAjjuqZM I am bias (read the intro), it makes me nervous, but it is in Detroit:

Pick: Lions -3 (Levin Love)

Bucs @ Phins

I am a Lions and Dolphins fan, which means both picks are going to be Levin Love plays or neither. I chose to go with both. The Buccaneers and Dolphins have played the last 4 years. The score has been 17-13, 10-7, 10-6,17-6. I think they score a max of 35 points (a team could win 18-17). Also, I have a hunch/am bias that the Dolphins pull this one out. That home field theory. Fun fact: This is the first year since 1993 that there will not be a baseball diamond on the field.

Pick: Under 33.5 (Levin Love)
Pick: Dolphins -2

Cards @ Chiefs

Whisenhunt is now 7-14 in the preseason. When Romeo Crennel took over for the Chiefs they went 2-1, beating two playoff bound teams. I believe Crennel will do whatever it takes to show the Chiefs faithful that what they saw last year was not a fluke.

Pick: Chiefs -2.5

Vikings @ 49ers

Is Alex Smith legit? It does not matter much for this game, considering the starters will not play much. Plus, San Francisco’s backups might be better than Minnesota’s starters. Jim Harbaugh also has that Belichick arrogance and amazing coaching skill.  No way he loses this game.

Pick:  49ers -2.5 (Levin Love)

Sunday-August 12, 2012

Rams @ Colts

This just falls into my first game home field theory. I think the Colts will be thrilled to be onto a new season (is anyone from last year not on Denver, let alone left?)

Pick: Colts +1.5

Monday-August 13, 2012

Cowboys @ Raiders

Read Sunday night analysis game.

Pick: Raiders pick’em

I am tempted to pick the Jaguars at -1.5 and the Panthers at -1, but I’ve picked too many already.

Levin Lock: 2

Levin Loves: 4

Other picks: 8

Total picks: 14

Tebows @ Patriots

Where do I start with this game?  The Dark Side vs. the Heavenly Body or how about we just go with a simple comparison of Brady vs. Tebow: https://www.buzzfeed.com/bryanbrunsell/tom-brady-vs-tim-tebow-45ct I think I have to give the edge to Brady because he looks like John Travolta in Pulp Fiction while sliding down the slide at the pool party, but he is also cheating (Patriots never do that!) by taking up more than half of the picture in “whispering to each other” photo. Stats in this game seem to be irrelevant (if you don’t believe me watch what Tebow will be watching before the game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=niHSWYE-PLI). This game could be 41-17 in favor of the Patriots or 27-24 in favor of the “most famous white broncos, since OJ’s vehicle” or anything in between. I’ve always said that you can’t pick against the Patriots nor can you pick against Tebow. Let’s just say with 3 minutes left in the 16th overtime Tebow throws a game winning 55 yard bomb…to himself. And the world decides that the Superbowl trophy will no longer be known as the Lombardi trophy, but will be called the Timothy Trophy. Tebow has actually been better on the road, but with that said, the stat that will convince me to take the Patriots is that teams coming off a victory against the Steelers are 0-4 against the spread. The MOST amazing stat is that since 1978 more than half the games in the divisional round have been won by double digits. My prediction will be Patriots 34 Broncos 20 (lean toward the Pats covering the 13.5).  Tebow is 6-0 when he doesn’t turn the ball over. I think we all know will the game plan will be. Speaking of knowing the game plan please don’t even get me started on how ridiculous it is that the Patriots were able to hire Josh McDaniels (the guy who drafted Tim Tebow) in the middle of the playoffs.

Pick: Over 50

Texans @ Ravens

Wade Phillips led defenses have given up 18.55 ppg on the road, while the TJ Yates led offense has averaged 18.67 ppg on the road (against the Jags, Bengals, and Colts). The Ravens give up 14.9 ppg at home and score 27.4 ppg at home. This is what I wrote the last time these teams played earlier in the year when Baltimore won at home 29-14: “The Ravens are such a frustrating team. Every game you think they should do well, they don’t and every game that should be close they dominate, but Schaub is slightly injured (he’ll still play), no Andre 3000 (Derrick Mason won’t help this week), Mario Williams is out for the year and the Ravens are fresh off of a bye. This screams impending disaster for the Texans. Pick: Ravens -8 Pick: Under 45.” Well, this time instead of an injured Schaub there is a healthy third string QB, Andre 3000 will play, but will still be hampered by injury. The Ravens will (again) be fresh off of a bye. First though for these defensively minded teams is to expect a low scoring game, but surprisingly, the numbers say that the over play is the right play. I’ll take the Ravens 27-17.

Pick: Ravens -7.5
Pick: Over 36

Giants @ Packers

In my opinion, the most important story line of this game is not being talked about:https://www.nypost.com/p/sports/giants/mccarthy_tragedy_won_affect_playoff_6rNfV6DVpUlqWHHrNnleiL. You could say this will motivate the Packers like Favre’s father passing away and motivated him to throw for 399 yards and four touchdowns a day later. So, if this motivates the Pack (and the game is at Lambeau, a place that Favre never seemed to lose, especially when it got cold), then the Pack could win by 20+ points, but I do not believe it will. The Gmen are clicking on all cylinders right now (would you like some more hababi?). The Packers are averaging 40.1 ppg at home! The Giants score 26 ppg on the road. The Packers give up 21.4 ppg at home. The Giants give up 26.9 ppg on the road. Remember, the Gmen are getting healthierish (again this means: some players that were hurt at the beginning of the year are healthy now, but some remain out, while there continues to be lingering injuries for many of the players).Fitting true to the “Eli Excitement” this game remains close, but I believe the Packers are still too much as they win 32-30. Last time these teams played (December 4th) I liked the over better than the Giants play, but this time I like the Giants play more than the over play.

Pick: Giants +7.5
Pick: Over 53

Alabama vs. LSU (ROUND DOS-FIGHT!)

This has to be the rematch of the century! My analysis on November 5th on this game was: “The Tide will not roll, instead they will lose 17-16 (I’ll go with a very bold prediction and say Alabama scores on a last second play, then tries to go for two to win and fails).” I did two College Bowl Mania. One I have LSU winning 27-23. The other one I have LSU winning 23-10. I said in my long rant how LSU would win by double figures, but maybe I was just angry about Oklahoma State not getting a chance. I love numbers, so I will take the average of the score of the first game, my first prediction, and the two predictions from this game. LSU wins 19 to 13.75. It’s always tough to beat a great team twice (right, Michigan State?-though Georgia Tech feels otherwise). But, this is a home game for LSU! Don’t love the under, but I have to pick it (40.5). You know what happens at night games in the Superdome, don’t you? Well, if you don’t remember, then watch the Saints/Falcons game tomorrow (Monday, December 26th). The over is probably the right play, especially with the odds of a pick 6 or two with these dominate defenses.

Pick: Tigers -1
Pick: First half under 20

I'll add over 40 for the game!

Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois

I said it a really long time ago (top of the page), I think the MAC is going undefeated. Both of these teams are as hot (coming in with a combined 17 game win streak) as the GoDaddy.com (bowl) commercials.

Pick: Northern Illinois +1.5
Pick: Over 63

Maybe should add first half under @ 32.5?
https://imlevinit.wordpress.com/2011/12/25/its-the-most-wonderful-time-of-the-year-2/

Southern Methodist vs. Pittsburgh

Both of these coaches applied to be Arizona State’s coach. One received permission from their school to talk to ASU, one did not. Needless to say, the one who did NOT get permission got the head coaching job at ASU. Todd Graham is gone and told his team through text message. Speaking of gone, both the Mustangs and Panthers star running backs are out for the season. I think the Mustangs win this low scoring game.

Pick: Southern Methodist +3.5
Pick: Under 47

Kansas State vs. Arkansas

This is an interesting game. Both of these teams were passed over to play in a BCS bowl game. One team because of a rule that does not allow 3 teams in the same conference to participate in the BCS games, while the other was just passed over (mostly by the Sugar Bowl). Two of Arkansas’ coaches have taken head coaching jobs elsewhere while their defensive coordinator resigned (I didn’t think he did anything anyways, but they were 36th out of 120 teams in points allowed). This will be the second game of the season that Arkansas will play at Cowboys stadium against a Big 12 opponent. Kansas State didn’t get any love from the Sugar Bowl just like they never get any love from Vegas. Although, they ALWAYS seem to play with their competition no matter who they are playing. We will take out the Oklahoma (lost by 41), Kent State (won by 37), and Kansas (won by 38) games and in the other 9 games the margin of difference was 4.77. When Arkansas win they average 41.8 ppg. I think the Razorbacks win this 42-34.

Pick: Arkansas -7.5
Pick: Over 62.5 (Levin Lock)

This was my write up at the beginning. Now that the line is up to 10. I think I might take KSU.

GO LIONS!!

Falcons @ Giants

The Falcons give up 19 ppg on the road and score 19.25 ppg on the road. Overall, the Falcons score 25.1 ppg and give up 21.9 ppg. Remember the “Eli Excitement” rule? Well, teams that finished .500 or better the Giants averaged 27 ppg, while giving up 25.6 ppg. This fits perfectly into my theory. He is 6-4 against those teams. A mere 1-2 record at home against these teams. Against all teams at home, the Gmen score 23.25 ppg and give up 23.13 ppg. While scoring 24.6 overall and giving up 25 ppg. Giants 26 Falcons 23. I like the over play better.

Pick: Gmen -3
Pick: Over 47

Steelers @ Tim Tebow

Since Tebow took over the Broncos have averaged 18.55 ppg and have given up 22.72 ppg. At home the defense of the Broncos (since Tebow took over) 23.2 ppg, but the Broncos have only scored (since Tebow took over) 13.2 ppg at home.  The Steelers average 20.3 ppg overall and a mere 15.6 ppg on the road. While their defense has given up 14.2 ppg and 18.4 ppg on the road. No Pouncey, Mendenhall, Ryan Clark. A banged up Roethlisberger and LaMarr Woodley. Also, the Steelers’ RB coach received burns from a house fire (I won’t even make a Tim Tebow joke here) and will not travel with the team as the backup RBs will play. Similar to the Chiefs/Packers game, where I thought all signs pointed to the Chiefs definitely covering, I love the Denver Tebows to cover in this game, but like the Chiefs/Packers game I still think the favorite wins. Then, again the Chiefs actually did win. Basically, this is how the Broncos should feel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA. I LOVE both of these plays (very tempted to make the Broncos a Lock to cover, but read my statement above). The most points that each team will score is 20 points for Pittsburgh. and 16 for Denver. I think the score is 14-10, so I will take the average and pick the final score to be: 17-13.

Pick: Broncos +9
Pick: Under 33.5

Falcons @ Giants

The Falcons give up 19 ppg on the road and score 19.25 ppg on the road. Overall, the Falcons score 25.1 ppg and give up 21.9 ppg. Remember the “Eli Excitement” rule? Well, teams that finished .500 or better the Giants averaged 27 ppg, while giving up 25.6 ppg. This fits perfectly into my theory. He is 6-4 against those teams. A mere 1-2 record at home against these teams. Against all teams at home, the Gmen score 23.25 ppg and give up 23.13 ppg. While scoring 24.6 overall and giving up 25 ppg. Giants 26 Falcons 23. I like the over play better.

Pick: Gmen -3
Pick: Over 47

Steelers @ Tim Tebow

Since Tebow took over the Broncos have averaged 18.55 ppg and have given up 22.72 ppg. At home the defense of the Broncos (since Tebow took over) 23.2 ppg, but the Broncos have only scored (since Tebow took over) 13.2 ppg at home.  The Steelers average 20.3 ppg overall and a mere 15.6 ppg on the road. While their defense has given up 14.2 ppg and 18.4 ppg on the road. No Pouncey, Mendenhall, Ryan Clark. A banged up Roethlisberger and LaMarr Woodley. Similar to the Chiefs/Packers game, where I thought all signs pointed to the Chiefs definitely covering, I love the Denver Tebows to cover in this game, but like the Chiefs/Packers game I still think the favorite wins. Then, again the Chiefs actually did win. Basically, this is how the Broncos should feel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA. I LOVE both of these plays (very tempted to make the Broncos a Lock to cover, but read my statement above). The most points that each team will score is 20 points for Pittsburgh. and 16 for Denver. I think the score is 14-10, so I will take the average and pick the final score to be: 17-13.

Pick: Broncos +9
Pick: Under 33.5

I know this is a College Football Forum, but here are my NFL picks: 

Similar to Bowl games, I should not make any playoff games a Levin Lock and I (actually) won’t, but I will point out games that I love.

Bengals @ Texans

I think the most telling state here is the Bengals record against teams with a winning record this year is 1-6. While the Bengals are 8-1 against teams that are .500 or worse. Since Schaub went down with an injury the Texans are 3-3 (losing their last 3). Since Schaub went down the Texans have averaged 18 points per game (ppg) Are teams starting to figure out T.J. Yates? I don’t think so. I said before that Wade Phillips is their big X-factor. He is now back. The most points that the Texans gave up at home with Wade Phillips coaching the defense was 25 points to the Raiders and an average of 16.5ppg (That’s including the 40 they gave up to the Saints in New Orleans). Giving up 14.43 ppg at home when Phillips is coaching. The Bengals give up an average of 17.25 ppg on the road and score 23.5 ppg on the road. I like the Texans to win 20-17 (take Houston straight up!). In the first playoff game that involves the new rules.

Pick: Under 39

Lions @ Saints

In a must win game last week against the Packers’ backup the Lions game up 480 yards passing and 6TDs (note: that is not a misprint). Can you imagine what Drew Brees is going to do at home against the Lions? I don’t think anyone can fathom the possibilities. The Lions didn’t have Louis Delmas and Ndamukong Suh the last time these teams met in week 13 when the Saints won 31-17. The Saints don’t lose at home. In addition, they don’t come close to losing at home in primetime. We know the Lions don’t show up for the first half and we know I’m a Lions fan, so I will only pick the first half (although, unbiased, the Saints for the game could be the better play). My only small hope for my Lions to pull of the upset is the fact that the Saints lost (both on the road) to the Rams and Buccaneers. The last two weeks, I believed there was a shot that the Saints could lose (boy was I wrong). This week I believe that the Saints have NO shot to lose (even though, a dome is a dome, right?). Sadly, my Lions go down 43-27. Don’t love the over play because of 59 is A LOT of points, but I will take it, along with:

Pick: First half Saints -7
Pick: Saints -10.5
Pick: Over 59