CraigBuchanan

Prospect

Posts: 182

Member Since: October 2009

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replied to Thursday plays....
in Soccer

Nice writeup

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specimen24

6

January 05, 2017

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replied to Thursday Baskets
in College Basketball

Thanx for posting. Like your picks

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mbiddy

19

January 05, 2017

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replied to 2016-2017 CBB season (continued....) + other sports
in College Basketball

Hey man. Are you going to post any more? Been following for a while. I just flat bet your plays and have made a killing. It seems like you just have a little money management issue but I'm not here to judge. You're killing your picks percentage wise and clearly know what your are doing and I've been following everyday and your record and money is correct to the penny. Don't know why posters are giving you grief. About non college basketball plays in a college basketball forum Anyways I hope you post again. Really Appreciated.

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pederson16

111

January 05, 2017

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replied to Wednesday's plays.....
in College Basketball

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kalamus20

31

January 04, 2017

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replied to Tottenham Chelsea
in Soccer

Thank u 4 posting epl thoughts

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mr_bollox

15

January 04, 2017

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replied to Lets get this Rolling . Like to Jump in around New Years Time!
in College Basketball

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DaGmen

29

January 04, 2017

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replied to wednesday hoops
in College Basketball

Been lurking a long time. Like your plays. Thanks for posting

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nostradamus12

11

January 04, 2017

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replied to Steve Kerr....."Their gonna wear down with 7 people"
in NBA Betting

It's actually the smartest thing he's ever said. They will 100% absolutely wear down at this pace. About time he stepped up the pace. Cannot believe it took him 4 game plans to do so

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StackMyLoot

12

June 11, 2015

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replied to How do u grade this ticket?
in NBA Betting

Loss

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BIGfnPOO

5

May 21, 2015

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replied to calling all math/statistics nerds, please help: how do I maximize payout of these 2 parlays?
in College Basketball

Quote Originally Posted by astrat108:

Options 1 & 2 have an equal EV long term with 1 having more risk/reward.

Like he said before, option 3 is probably the best mathematically because you still guarantee a winning parlay without reducing the payout too much as in Option 4 while having a decent sized window to middle.

Regardless of what you choose, good luck!!

thank you

You guys both came up with pretty much what I did....which is good

I went ahead and filled it as it shows above...probably posted it as you were typing your reply...sort of a hybrid of 3 and 4, as I took a ML but not a huge juiced one and instead of a '6-pt-middle', I have a '7-pt-middle'

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CraigBuchanan

9

February 17, 2015

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replied to calling all math/statistics nerds, please help: how do I maximize payout of these 2 parlays?
in College Basketball

F it.....

i filled them with Michigan State ML -230

and

Michigan +8 (bought the 3 points)

payouts are below:

Feb 16 06:15 PM
Feb 16 12:03 PM
Feb 16 04:02 PM
Feb 17 04:02 PM
Feb 17 06:00 PM

CBB
CBB
CBB
CBB
CBB
CBB

[704] VIRGINIA -8½-170 (B+3)
[710] CREIGHTON +5½-170 (B+3)
[715] MIAMI FLORIDA -170
[702] VILLANOVA -13½-170 (B+3)
[1511] TOTAL o68½-110
(1H WAKE FOREST vrs 1H NOTRE DAME)
[525] MICHIGAN STATE -230

250 / 4107

Feb 16 06:15 PM
Feb 16 12:03 PM
Feb 16 06:04 PM
Feb 17 04:02 PM
Feb 17 06:00 PM

CBB
CBB
CBB
CBB
CBB
CBB

[704] VIRGINIA -8½-170 (B+3)
[710] CREIGHTON +5½-170 (B+3)
[715] MIAMI FLORIDA -170
[721] HAMPTON +5-170 (B+3)
[1511] TOTAL o68½-115
(1H WAKE FOREST vrs 1H NOTRE DAME)
[526] MICHIGAN +8-170 (B+3)

250 / 4473

thanks for the advice

let's pray for a middle

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CraigBuchanan

9

February 17, 2015

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replied to calling all math/statistics nerds, please help: how do I maximize payout of these 2 parlays?
in College Basketball

Quote Originally Posted by JimmyReebs:

Option 3 is your best profitable mathematical outcome by 17.176%. bol buddy.

but what if I don't hit the middle? then i will get either a 3400 or 4500 payout, which would be less than option 2 and potentially less than option 4...... correct?

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CraigBuchanan

9

February 17, 2015

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replied to calling all math/statistics nerds, please help: how do I maximize payout of these 2 parlays?
in College Basketball

earthworm , you're a gambler and would take option 2?!?!, that's the safest option in my eyes...

jimmy, thanks for the feedback, I am leaning towards 3 or 4, however I am sure someone out there can figure out which of the two is a better mathematical play based on the odds of that outcome occuring and the payout.

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CraigBuchanan

9

February 17, 2015

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created a topic calling all math/statistics nerds, please help: how do I maximize payout of these 2 parlays?
in College Basketball

so......

I have these 2 parlays, both with only 1 open slot, all other plays already winners.

so, this begs the question, how do I maximize the payout?

Feb 16 11:32 AM
Feb 16 04:03 PM
Feb 16 06:15 PM
Feb 17 04:02 PM
Feb 16 12:03 PM

CBB

CBB
CBB
CBB
CBB

[702] VILLANOVA -13½-170 (B+3)
OPEN PLAY
[704] VIRGINIA -8½-170 (B+3)
[710] CREIGHTON +5½-170 (B+3)
[1511] TOTAL o68½-110
(1H WAKE FOREST vrs 1H NOTRE DAME)
[715] MIAMI FLORIDA -170

250 / 5547

Feb 16 06:15 PM
Feb 16 06:04 PM
Feb 16 12:03 PM
Feb 16 11:32 AM
Feb 16 04:03 PM

CBB
CBB
CBB
CBB

CBB

[1511] TOTAL o68½-115
(1H WAKE FOREST vrs 1H NOTRE DAME)
[710] CREIGHTON +5½-170 (B+3)
[721] HAMPTON +5-170 (B+3)
[715] MIAMI FLORIDA -170
OPEN PLAY
[704] VIRGINIA -8½-170 (B+3)

250 / 5427

options, as I see them, are:

1- don't hedge and risk it all, on 2 plays that are close to -110. this would maximize the payout (except of course for taking 2 dogs, but that would be just dumb)

2-hedge by just taking opposite -110 plays, and guarantee myself roughly $5500 minimum

3- take a line, like evansville -10 and buy it down 3 points to -7 in 1 parlay and buy up drake in the other parlay from +10 to +13 and hope for a middle. this gives me the chance to hit both, but will lower payouts to roughly $4500 on each.

4-fill one parlay with a large favorite ml, like a -10 with a ML -500, which would lower the payout on that one to around $3400, and then buy up the +10 dog in the other parlay to +13 and hope to hit that middle.

any other ideas?

and if you were in my shoes, what would you do?

I have not decided, if I want to risk it all or play it safe. To me, the $500 risked is not a big deal, and winning $10-12k does not affect my lifestyle positively or negatively, so I am not basing any decisions on that. I simply want to do what is mathematically the ideal play.

Thanks covers brothers

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CraigBuchanan

9

February 17, 2015

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replied to Djoker vs. Dimtrov O 3.5 Sets -151
in Tennis

i think that is a fantastic play. g'luck

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Bleakhouse

18

July 03, 2014

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replied to Stupid St. louis pitcher!
in MLB Betting

cool story bro

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brianx

4

July 03, 2014

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replied to Tuesday June 24th World Cup action
in Soccer

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TRAIN69

20

June 24, 2014

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replied to primetime parlay
in Soccer

i know that..... who doesn't know that...

yet the O/U is still 2.5 and juiced -135 to the over...?!?!

they are begging for Over $

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CraigBuchanan

3

June 22, 2014

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created a topic primetime parlay
in Soccer

also posted in MLB forum:

LAA/TEX under 7 +105

and

USA/Portugal under 2.5 +115

$200 to win $681.84

i figure every one and their brother will be on the US and the Over. I want to cheer for the US so I won't bet on them, I think it's a low scorring game, if any goals.

both teams will run out of gas and with altidore (out) and dempsey (wearing a mask?) banged up, i don't know how the US scores and ultimately I think the US defense will shut down ronaldo and whoever else is up there for portugal.

plus they are in the amazon and it will be hot and humid and i think both teams will pace themselves.

in the baseball game, Tex has never seen Shoemaker, and while LAA has seen Darvish several times, the only guy that hits him is Trout. plus, darvish is lights out after giving up 3+ runs in the last start.

enjoy the night fellow degenerates

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CraigBuchanan

3

June 22, 2014

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created a topic primetime parlay
in MLB Betting

LAA/TEX under 7 +105

and

USA/Portugal under 2.5 +115

$200 to win $681.84

i figure every one and their brother will be on the US and the Over. I want to cheer for the US so I won't bet on them, I think it's a low scorring game, if any goals.

both teams will run out of gas and with altidore (out) and dempsey (wearing a mask?) banged up, i don't know how the US scores and ultimately I think the US defense will shut down ronaldo and whoever else is up there for portugal.

plus they are in the amazon and it will be hot and humid and i think both teams will pace themselves.

in the baseball game, Tex has never seen Shoemaker, and while LAA has seen Darvish several times, the only guy that hits him is Trout. plus, darvish is lights out after giving up 3+ runs in the last start.

enjoy the night fellow degenerates

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CraigBuchanan

1

June 22, 2014

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