edogg007

This year we will have one of the most intriguing men's national title games in quite some time. Never has there been a game in recent memory where lower seeds have prevailed. Tonight its the Freshman Sensations from the University of Kentucky vs the  Veteran and explosive senior driven team from the University of Connecticut.
       Now although it is a championship game,  an investor should not look at it as the end all. Too many times Investors have broke the bank to bet on these high profile events. Although there is nothing wrong putting a little more than normal on this game, keep in mind it is only one game. After the nets get cut down, and the interviews are over and One Moment in time is played it will be back to business as usual as within 24-48 hours the media and experts will be talking about who will be favored for the 2014-2015 season. Now lets get to the matchup.
      Immediately after the Wildcats sensational win against  Wisconsin , the line was opened at Kentucky  - 3.0  It wasnt 15 minutes before it was pounded down to 2.5 where it has held steady every since.
     Kentucky is good.  Coming into the year they were much the talk of the basketball world as some didn't even think they would lose a game. There are quite a players on that roster that will go on to have a pro career ( i count it as high as 7) either in the Association or over seas.    They rebound the ball extremely well and they get a lot of second chance points. With the man-child in Julius Randle they  are a tough cookie to crack when on as they have beaten some impressive competition in this tournament, with wins against Wichita State, Louisville and Wisconsin.  Coach Calipari is a hall of fame coach as well as a Hall of Fame recruiter. If they pull of the win they will be legendary.
       However, I just think this story is too scripted for the "Win and Done Wildcats".  They are facing a UCONNHusky team that has one of the most dynamic back courts in all of college and probably the best Point Guard in the Country in Shabazz Napier. Napier was the freshman backup to Kemba Walker when UConn made the  title run in 2011.. 
     No one is really making note of it but Kevin Ollie is doing a TREMENDOUS job in only his second year as a COACH. Not head coach or assistant coach but a COACH period. But if you know your basketball he has been a coach a long time on the court as he spent 13 years in the NBA and his mental toughness and perseverance has rubbed of on this team. He has made all the right moves and decisions and with a great mentor in Calhoun, he has been dangerously overlooked on how he is getting these guys to prepare.
        The one thing about Kentucky is in all there losses this year they were exposed specifically in PG play or guards that were  quicker or as athletic as their guards. In the tournament they were CLEARLY the more athletic guards who could get a shot off and penetrate with no regard against all of their opponents with the exception of Louisville
      UCONN basically can run 3 people at the point as Napier and Boatwright are inter-changeable and on the floor together. Also the way UCONN plays Defense is gonna be big. Instead of getting on top of an opponent, there guards get under the opponents. By that I mean they are literally up under the opposing guards and their superior quickness in the back court could prove pivotal.
      Another big factor is UConn shoots 77% from the FT line The big  X-factor in the contest is DeAndre Daniels..
    My recommendation is take the UConn Huskies +3. And sprinkle a lil something on the  UCONN ML.  

   Action Investors  Looking to hit the middle
 For those who strictly want action here and are pro kentucky : lay  2 units UConn 1 unit Uconn ML and 3 units wildcats ML as it gets near game time as I expect it to

767 Butler vs 768 Villanova(-15) (BreaksBeater)
     I think that this game is going to be utter destruction.  Butler reminds me of Notre Dame in football. By that I mean if Butler had of played an easy out of conference schedule they would be  highly rated and the media would say they are good and yada yada yada.  But the fact of the matter is they are not very good. They have lack of depth, they dont shoot the ball very well and the coaching is not bad but is not good enough to cover the misgivings of this team. And I might be wrong because of the amount of points to lay but I looking at the stats and angles Villanova should beat the Brakes off the Bulldogs tonight.
     I don't really have to say anything about Villanova. Some people say they are over rated. Personally I think they are a force to reckon with in the Big Dance. They played a heckuva a game vs St. Johns and I really look for them to flex.
     There is alot of chalk in this game and I think that  the 1h play is big one to swallow. But GSM projections has Villanova winning by 17. I personally think they should be winning by 20.
    Back in December Butler took Villanova to OT losing by 2 points but that was a long time ago.  The rigors of the conference has definitely wore on Butler, and Villanova is well aware that if they lose to Butler it could severely hurt their seeding as we move forward.  At this point the Wildcats can move into a first place tie with Creighton and hope they stumble down the stretch (highly unlikely). Butler has not defended well as of late in the post as well as the perimeter and the Wildcats will want to stretch it out.  Fade or Follow but I think this should be a great play.  The one thing that i will say about this game is that if Villanova comes out sluggish a 2h play is definitely in order.

Pick : Villanova -15 ( i would get it before it gets any higher)


779 Baylor vs 780 Texas (-4)
    I am not about to play with you on this pick. I am not going to do my normal contraian thing , and work my finger to the bone typing this one up. I am behind the U. Not Baylor U.  But the U down there in Awwwstin Texas (yeah I meant to spell it that way; no spell check).
    You know I have always liked Texas basketball. I am talking waaaay back. We are talking Pre-Durant.  Going back to the "BMW Ultimate scoring Machine" with Travis Mays, Lance Blanks, and  Joey Wright (you hear me) and obviously everyone knows about Damon Jones, Lance Aldridge, and the greatest Freshman ever in Kevin Durant. There have been some special players coming through here and this year's roster albeit young is looking pretty special as well. Matt Barnes has a solid group of younguns here . There are only 2 upperclassmen on this team and they have been getting better and better and really no one is paying much attention to them.       Jonathan  Holmes is averaging  13pts and 7 boards and Javan Felix and the rest of the crew are playing some good basketball. Yes they have stumbled along the way but thats what young teams do.
    I understand it could be said that they are in a situational revenge spot by Baylor but I LOVE the fact that they are coming off two road losses and gets baylor at Home. Some people thing this is going to be close but I think the longhorns come out strong and will get Baylor to play an uptempo game which favors the Longhorns.
     The whole write up has been about Texas so you know where I'm going with this:
Pick Texas -4
Strong lean over 141
 

 

517 Xavier vs 518 Georgetown (-2) 11:30EST
   I had to get down on this play. If for anything else because its and early morning play and I feel like it favors the home team with an unusual half hour bump from the normal starts. 
 Fade or follow, but I feel like John Thompson's  Hoyas are on red alert as after getting bounced by Seton Hall on Thursday. From here on out they are in must win situations going into the tournament over the next two weeks to get in decent seeding to try and gather a couple of wins to get a look from the NCAA comittee.  Also they are playing the revenge roll after losing at Xavier 80-67.  That puts them in a must win situation coming off BBLs and playing with revenge for an 80-67 loss at Xavier. Hoyas have the components to get this victory and do so with the motivation of urgency. These teams are evenly matched as I have Georgetown Rated at 90 and Xavier 91.
Last game vs Xavier
Stats    
Hoyas  were 26-55 fg10-18 (555)  3pt while  Xavier was 28-57 fg and 6-15( 40%) from 3 point line. Where Georgetown faulted was at the free throw line as they were only 5-8 from the stripe and Xavier shot a whopping 18-22.  This was the big difference in the game as the hoyas were taken to the post and fouls were called in favor of  the Musketeers as they domintated the boards 31-23 in their favor, while the hoyas had 7 blks to 2.
Tale of 2 haves
   In the first match-up, the Hoyas were cruising along at the break 42-29. In the 2nd half they loss the edge as they were out-scored 51-25 and you know that JT has been preaching and circling this game because that is not hoya basket ball
    Although they have lost their last two games those games were both on the road @ Seton Hall and @ St. John's. They are home this time where their only losses have been to Marquette and Villanova in conference play. Its going to be close and can go either way but give Gtown and the points or ML
Pick Georgetown ML or -2 for   1/2 unit  


527 Boston College vs 528 Miami (-5)
    This game is purely situational.  We dont have to get into a long spew about stats and trends and analytics. Boston College is one of the bottom feeders of the conference and on Thursday night they Upset the #1 team in the country in Syracuse. They had not beaten a ranked team since 2009 and were playing with a great deal of emotion after long-time SI director loss his battle with ALS. That game I would not take Syracuse and I leaned towards BC because of the "Win one for the Gipper" attitude that I was unsure that they would have but wasn't willing to find out although Syracuse was in a horrible spot.
    That being said, the same thing that got them the great win should be the same thing that will get them this loss.  They play similar style of ball as the Hurricanes but  I believe the Hurricanes do it just a little bit better. Although the eagles actually lead this series the have lost 6 straight to Miami with the latest margin of the series by 11 points.
     Human emotion is a funny thing but I think with Miami coming off a much needed confidence building win vs Notre Dame will get them over the hump in this one as Boston College although 7-7 on the road they are 2-9 SU. Miami although not a strong team covers the spread at a clip of 14-5 in Saturday match-ups and and even higher pct when playing at home in the A.M.  Models like  hurricanes up to 7 within a 2 point variance which does not in my opinion make the Eagles a quality Outlier but just the opposite:
Pick Miami (-5)  
 
 
529 Louisville vs 530 Cincinati (+3.5)   This is the kind of game that damn if you do. Damn if you don't . Coach P and the Cards are on a tear since they last Played the Bearcats. They have been playing with a no none sense type of mentality and have been drilling teams. 
     Don't get me wrong the Bearcats have been playing well. They have a stifling defense and the league's top scorer. Furthermore this team has not lost a home game at home in OVER  A YEAR since they have lost at a home game.   The last time they played on this court the Cincy won a tough match-up 60-56. There are conflicting trends in this match-up as 
 

• Under is 40-13 in Bearcats last 53 home games.
• Under is 22-6 in Bearcats last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600

• Over is 17-5 in LOU last 22 Sat. games.

• Over is 22-10 in LOU last 32 overall.

  There are many other games that were and are easier calls but it has to be mentioned and out put out there that Louisville is looking to DEFEND its title and the only way you can defend anything is take it right to the Hunters themselves

Pick louisville: -3.5
Pick Louisville 1h

San Antonio has beaten the Wizards 15 or 16 straight....But streaks gotta come to an end and I think that Wall knows if he can beat the Spurs He can validate himself.. I would take a flyer on the Wiz.. But definitely a game to stay away from.. Just the simple spread says. DANGER!!!!

If Jameer is playing damn the points.....I will take orlando on the money line for half my wager that initially was playing on them anyway

Short week.... go with the underdog. One sided action on the colts but they were exposed...They actually were exposed the week before vs Houston but the lost of the Head Coach at halftime killed it. It was definitley a look ahead spot last week for the titans.  Minus the jags debacle titans have lost to Seattle Kansas city  San fran and Houston when houston was relevant.  

Sienna (-1) over Rider - Rider has been playing great; Sienna is rounding into form as we head to the end of the month getting into crunch time. I take Sienna at the house by 4

 
  1-0 on yesterday as I played one college game. But a great day overall with nfl nba
   Running late so I make this short and sweet
 
Now moving uickly to task at hand
Notre Dame+11 over Pitt- Now I took Pitt originally and up until 30 minutes ago I was all over it. Now (unfortunately) I have a change of heart and I am having second thoughts.
   For some reason I think that blowout win by pitt might just be relaxing. I think Pitt wins for sure but I think it just may be a struggle Although everything I have done will say other wise Im thinking Notre Dame covers the 11 Heres hoping for a push but I am thinking notre dame is a team that will do their damnes to show they belong.

Miss Valley State (+3) over Texas Southern - Doesnt show up on most boards but I like the small conference games nobody thinks about. Mississippi Valley has played a whole bunch of really good schools nonconference and took the money and the beat downs. now in the SWAC at home and undefeated I think they make a lil statement

Baylor (+6) over Kansas State- Common thinking says go with the team with the better coach. But the Kansas backcourt is not mentally stable and not yet hitting strides. Although Coaching has been terrible imo for Baylor I think this is the night they step up if only for a fleeting moment.

Moorhead State(+2) over Ball State- at the end of the day Moorehead state is in a dog fight in conference play and have played the tougher schedule. Ball State pretty record but no substance I think they will play well early but Moorehead and the quality of defense and players will edge them out to a 4 point win

Notre Dame vs Pitt over - No matter who win this game there are going to be points tonight. Beginning of week Everybody want to shoot and by indications of the Syracuse game on Saturday I think their will be guards shining all week long I look for the game to hit 141

Saturday 5-0 first half afternoon 1-4 second half; 6-4 on sides for the day. 7-0 for totals

YTD
Sides 31-17
5-0 halfs
9-0 totals

44-17 for year

Only one pick today;
Belmont -6
  Should win by 12 on the road

Adding Hawaii -3

adding Oakland -6

added marshall, notre dame, and nebraska

Adding Maryland -7

Took the 2nd half over for both big east matchups and the over in the James Madison/George Mason game

YTD
Sides 25-13
 
 Had a nice write up but accidentally erased I will post other later

Ohio State Illinois first half over 65
Villanova vs syracuse first half over 66
2nd half James Madison vs George Mason Over 75

Ole Miss - 4 vs LSU
Moorehead STate vs Eastern KEntucky Over 126
Colorado -4 vs Oklahoma
Texas A&M (-5) over Kansas State
Hofstra (-3) over William And Mary
Maryland(-7) over Clemson
Notre Dame (-3) over Marquette
 

As per usual, I kill the first half of the night and then I get a lil greedy and try to go against the norm.
   4-0--0 first half  of night and a nice 4 team parlay hits and the win reverse wagers.. Actually 5-0 because Hawaii play was the first play I made of any. 
 

Western Kentucky (-1)  was played also. Shared but as initially I was hesitant but did additional research. Forgot that one.

  there are write in games available. Will look at and post in next 20mins