Fish22

Team,

Had a delicious 2-0 win last night. That's what we want.

Bam Adebayo Over 15.5 Rebounds + Assists

Mostly this is a rebounds bet, but the assists is a little added insurance IMO since Butler is seemingly a good chance to miss. Bam has had at least 10 boards in nine of his last ten games (his line is set at 10.5), while in his those games he also has at least 4 every game and 6+ on seven occasions. Overall his rebs + assists totals during that time read like this: 18, 18, 16, 18, 16, 22, 12, 19, 16, 21. So basically he has covered this nine of his last ten games, and the Heat's highest usage guy may miss this game. Yes pls.

Michael Porter Jr Over 8.5 Rebounds

I've been kicking myself for not jumping on this over the last couple of games since I heard the Nugs commentators mention that the coaching staff have been on MPJ to get more boards a couple of games ago. Clearly it's had an effect, because his rebound numbers in his last four games are 10, 10, 10 and 15. The bookies' line is following him up but based on the aforementioned figures it's not quite enough. With his size he's easily capable of being a double double guy most nights and he's playing that way of late.

Kyle Kuzma Over 6.5 Rebounds

Was on this last game and he had 11 boards in just 20 minutes as the Lakers blew out the Warriors, so with no line adjustment from bookies I'm jumping straight back on. His last four games now read 11, 7, 11 and 11, and the last three of those have been blowouts so he's played less than 25 minutes. He's also covered it in eight of his past ten games, and without AD in the line-up looks likely to keep doing that for the time being.

Good luck!

Team,

1-1 AGAIN last night. Valanciunas had it all set it up for him for a big night but instead he had 5 fouls in 12 minutes as his team went on to win by 49 points. Hard to plan for that.

Luka Doncic Over 2.5 Three's Made

Over the course of the season Luka's only passed this 16/31 times, but 3-point shooting tends to come in waves and he has 3+ in six consecutive games, averaging a tick over 4 in that time. He's taken 8+ in all bar one of those games, and if he does that again the odds are with him to hit more than 2. Also playing Orlando, who concede a lot of three's and generally at a pretty decent clip.

Michael Carter-Williams Over 4.5 Assists

Bit of an obscure one but MCW is playing as Orlando's functional point guard, even if he's not that good, with Fournier and Vucevic sharing a bit of the ball-handling load. They've got very little other choice with the raft of injuries they've got, and even if MCW isn't exactly setting the world on fire he is putting up very consistent assist numbers. In his eight games since returning to the team he has at least 4 assists in all of them, and that was just once - the other seven games he has 5+. Teams also tend to score above their average against Dallas so that's another thing in Carter-Williams' favour.

Good luck!

Team,

1-1 last night, Beal creeping over and Edwards racking up a big fat ZERO assists! Luck over the long-term obviously averages out but sheesh I feel like I've had a seriously unhappy knack of picking players just as they have off nights this season - the man had 3+ eight games in a row! Anyway, coupla tonight.

Kyle Kuzma Over 6.5 Rebounds

Kuz is getting bigger minutes most games with AD out, and is getting good board numbers as a result. He has 7+ in eight of his last ten games and in his last three has gone 11, 7, 11, with the latter two of those coming in just 23 and 25 minutes. Hopefully he can not have a woeful offensive game again tonight because when he offers something he generally gets 30+, but he's passing this most nights regardless so that would just be an added bonus.

Jonas Valanciunas Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds

Houston is playing with PJ Tucker at the 5 again now that DeMarcus is on the trade block, meaning big centres can have their way down low. Jarrett Allen has already gone for 26 and 18 and Wendell Carter managed 18 and 13 (lots for him) in the three games since Boogie's been sat down, and Valanciunas is bigger and scarier than both of them. He should have a field day on the inside.

Good luck!

Team,

Another night, another loss yesterday evening. Turning into a v average season but nothing a 30-win streak can't turn around.

Bradley Beal Over 32.5 Points

I wish this was 30 or 31 (obviously) but nonetheless the numbers are well and truly in our favour. Beal is so consistent that he's virtually guaranteed to score 28-29+ a night, and he's scored 33 or more in 13 of his last 21 games. That's a damn good strike rate over an extended period - add in the fact that he's playing one of the worst defensive teams in the league in a game for which bookies have the over/under set at 237.5 and which is expected to be close, and he will most likely pass this IMO.

Anthony Edwards Over 3.5 Assists

Same game, this time focusing on the Wolves' rookie. Edwards has started facilitating more recently and now has at least 3 dimes in eight consecutive games. He also has 4+ over his past five, and like with Beal the expected high-scoring nature of the game also benefits this bet. I also think that in general rookies are more prone to fluctuations based on their opponents - given the Wiz probably play defence about as well as a lot of college teams the rook will probably feel right at home. Got this at +115 as well which is an added bonus.

Good luck!

Team,

No good with T. Ross last night - picked him just as he went cold after six solid games in a row, something I've made an incredible habit of doing this season. Anyway, we live and we learn. A couple from the same game tonight and waiting on one more re: K. Nunn pending Herro's availability.

Jerami Grant Over 3.5 Assists

The Pistons are in pretty grim areas at the moment and with Delon Wright now on the sidelines for a couple of weeks, have a real lack of genuine playmakers at their disposal. Saben Lee has come in and done a pretty decent job in the last couple of games, but so too has Jerami Grant's passing production picked up. He's their most dangerous player with ball in hand and, though it's a small sample size, has had an uptick in playmaking responsibility since Wright's injury, picking up 4 and 6 dimes in the two games he's played since Wright's been out. I expect this to continue in the Wright's absence.

Tyrese Haliburton Over 23.5 Points + Rebs + Assists

Tyrese is really fkn good, and has hit something of a purple patch in his last few games in what is a very impressive rookie season. He's had 16+ points in each of them but has also been dishing out plenty of dimes and grabbing a few boards for his trouble too - in his last three games his totals for this market have been 25, 37 and 36. I would have taken just the points but if he does have a quieter game in the scoring department I like his chances of making up for it in assists, and he's also been grabbing one or two more boards than his line in his past few games.

Good luck!

Team,

Just the one for this evening after a couple of days on the sidelines out with the flu.

Terrence Ross Over 2.5 Three's Made

I haven't been getting on these types of markets much/at all this season because I haven't had access to the bookmaker I usually use for them but now I do and I like this one, to put it simply, because he has at least three made 3s in six consecutive games. He's made 3, 3, 4, 5, 3, 4 going back to Feb 11, and he's also playing Brooklyn, who play fast and concede lots of points. The concern would be that they get blown out, but the Nets play so fast that even if he does miss out on a few minutes he will likely get close to as many possessions as he would normally in a full game.

Good luck!

Team,

Just a couple tonight. Resisting all my urges to take Butler given how good he's been to us of late - just don't like that both boards and dimes are set at 8.5 and there's the risk of a low-scoring game/blow out vs OKC.

Isaiah Roby Over 6.5 Rebounds

Speaking of OKC, Horford is out which means Roby should slip into the starting line-up and get more minutes than usual. He's actually pretty decent this kid and has been reasonably consistently productive in his minutes. With Horford out he's likely to sneak up towards 25+ minutes which should be enough to snare 7 rebounds given he's passed that number in four of his last five with Horford playing all but one of those.

Kyle Anderson Over 12.5 Points

The Grizzlies have had a revolving door of guys going in and out of their line-up of late but Anderson has been consistent in his numbers regardless of who's playing. He has scored 16+ in four consecutive games and 15+ in seven of his last eight, so a line at 12.5 looks very nice.

Good luck!

Actually, going to add one more.

Zion Williamson Over 3.5 Assists

Zion's role with the Pellies has changed in the past few games, and they're now running a lot more offence through him. And he's not just scoring - he's using this increased responsibility to operate as a playmaker more often, and is passing this mark pretty regularly. He has at least 4 dimes in 10 of his last 13 games and if this continues I think he's likely to average closer to 5 dimes the rest of the year than the 3.1 he's currently at, so I'll snap up the 3.5 line while it's there.

Team,

Crept over the line with Butler's boards last night for a nice little 2-1 evening. Just the one for tonight's games.

Norman Powell Over 20.5 Points

Lowry is not yet a confirmed out but he's doubtful and assuming he misses this line should be higher IMO - and even if he plays it's still a reasonable proposition. Powell has some good numbers with Lowry out this season, having scored 20+ on all five occasions including 29 and 31 in the Raptors last two games. He's also scored 28+ in four of his last seven and 22 in another so even with Lowry there he's putting up points. Philly is a tough opponent but he should get this done regardless.

Good luck!

Team,

J Butler continues to get it done, taking us to a 2-0 night on Thursday. He is again a feature of tonight's picks with some agencies refusing to change his line despite him passing it on a nightly basis. I will be brief as have limited time.

Jimmy Butler Over 7.5 Rebounds

Most agencies are at 8.5 but have found it at +105 for over 7.5 with Neds for those in Aus. Has now passed this ten games in a row so yes pls.

Jimmy Butler Over 8.5 Assists

Has drifted up to 8.5 for assists, but still - he has passed it eight of his past nine games and has double figure assists five of his last six. With Dragic still out he should do it again.

Bradley Beal Over 31.5 Points

Missed on Beal earlier this week but going back to the well. He's been performing at an incredibly consistently high level this season and has passed this 11 of his past 17 games - and in two of those six in which he didn't he had 31. They're playing Portland which is just an ideal match-up for lots of points for him - last time they played he had 37 and should be able to do something similar again.

Good luck!

Team,

1-1 yesterday so not quite the bounce back we were after but what can you do? I've stumbled across of Butler lines which for the life of me I can't put down to anything other than poor odd-setting so locking them in early.

Jimmy Butler Over 7.5 Rebounds

Butler has been carrying me on his shoulders of late, but I left him alone Miami's last game after bookies finally raised his line for both rebounds and assists to 8.5. He promptly went on to grab 12 boards and dish out 11 dimes, and yet now I've found lines for both at 7.5 Ridiculous. He has now grabbed at least 8 boards in nine consecutive games (including 10+ in four of his last six) so I have grabbed this line while it lasts.

Jimmy Butler Over 7.5 Assists

Same logic as above. He will continue to be the Heat's primary ball-handler for as long as Dragic, and given he is not with the team for this road trip that will be at least until Feb 24. His assist numbers are very high going back to last year without the Dragon, and on this current run he has had 9+ dimes in seven of his last eight games (the last six of which have been without Goran).

The only concern here would be that they are into their fifth game of a road trip and they're back-to-back after an OT loss, but Butler is one of the fittest guys in the league and they have no choice but to play him big minutes, + they need a win after a couple of close losses in a row. FYI, these lines were 8.5 at some bookies and 7.5 at others for me - for those in Aus PointsBet had his boards at 7.5 and Neds have him to get 8+ dimes at $1.97.

Team,

Disaster last night, going 0-3 after having come into some form prior. Kanter and Jokic dominated as predicted, unfortunately Jokic went for 43 and 5 and Kanter had a million rebounds but missed about 8 putbacks.

Bradley Beal Over 30.5 Points

Keeping it simple here. Beal's form is unbelievable this year but perhaps what's most extraordinary is how consistently he does it. If his line drops even a little, as it has here, the numbers are well and truly in his favour. In the past 16 games he's only failed to score 31 points on three occasions, and Denver's defence is not very good so I'm backing him to continue that trend.

Zion Williamson Over 24.5 Points

This is a  fun game because both Portland and the Pellies have terrific offences and woeful defences, albeit for different reasons. The Pelicans are pretty much the worst team in the league at defending the 3, while Portland play like my social team and shoot 3's for fun - just at a slightly higher clip. In contrast, the Pellies are dangerous inside and Portland cannot defend the interior to save themselves. As a result, Zion should have a great old time down low with Kanter and virtually no one else able to defend the rim. He's also in v good form having scored 29, 36, 26 and 31 in his last four games, so in what's predicted to be a high scoring and close game he is a good chance of passing 30 again.

Good luck!

@HeadOverHeart

 Careful with Towns back though. He's not exactly an elite interior defender but he'll provide a little more resistance than Naz Reid so Wolves' numbers so far this season might be a little misleading.

Team,

Welcome to Tuesday. Nice little earn yesterday with a 2-1 day and Butler continuing to earn us cash. Unfortunately Harden crept over his total with his last shot to remind me why I hate under but hey, can't win em all.

Nikola Jokic Over 7.5 Assists

I mentioned a few weeks ago when betting on Jokic that he goes through periods of dominant scoring and periods of dominant passing. At the moment he appears to be working his way into one of the latter. After nine consecutive games of single figure assists and a six-game run in which he went 6, 4, 3, 3, 5, 6, the Joker has started passing again, going 12, 6, 12, 9 and 10 in his last five. In other good news, Will Barton will miss his second game in a row while Millsap will also sit. The Nugs still have Monte Morris and Murray to hold onto the ball a little, but overall the Joker should have the ball in his hands more and given his mindset of late, will be accumulating plenty of dimes. 

Enes Kanter Over 13.5 Points

Boy do I like this one. I actually put double my normal stake on it which I rarely do. Couple of things going in Kanter's favour for this game - firstly, OKC is very little. Horford has been playing the five and they have been getting demolished pretty regularly by centres - in their last six games, Naz Reid has put up 27 and 19, Montrezl Harrell has gone for 20+ twice and Jokic has done his normal thing against them. Kanter is the kind of guy who can capitalise on size mismatches because he can't do much outside the paint, and he will likely look to crash the offensive boards against a smaller opponent too - when they played OKC a few weeks ago he had 23 boards, 8 of which were offensive. An added bonus is that Harry Giles will miss this game, meaning the Blazers now have just Kanter available to play at the five. They will of course play small ball for some of the game, with Melo in the game and Covington at the five, but I expect Kanter to get good minutes and be fairly dominant when he's on the floor.

Kyle Kuzma Over 14.5 Points

Another one I like a lot. Davis is out for a couple of weeks, and when he misses Kuz is probably the player who benefits the most. AD has missed five games this year - in one of them Kuz managed just 6, but in the other four he has had 15, 20, 20 and 22. On top of that, Kuzma is coming off games in which he has scored 19 and 20 points - and Davis played in those. AND, even better, he has gone just 3-12 from deep in those two games, so he's hardly just on a hot shooting streak. He will get minutes and shots tomorrow, and should make the most of a poor Timberwolves defence.

Kyrie Irving Over 27.5 Points

I was on the wrong side of the KD-being-out conundrum yesterday, taking Harden's inflated under instead of Kyrie's tantalising over, and while I think Harden's total is too high still, I won't make the same mistake twice. Irving has typically been the major beneficiary of KD's absence on this new Nets team - in the five games since Harden arrived that Durant has missed, Kyrie has scored 38, 25, 27, 35 and 40. Obviously that's only three overs out of five games, but his average there of 33 is notable. He takes a lot of shots without KD and coming off back-to-back big games without him, is set for another big one.

Good luck! 

Team,

Nice end to the weekend with a lil 2-0 night last night. Got a coupla goodies for you to start off your week.

James Harden Under 27.5 Points

That's right, an UNDER. KD is out and the bookies have gone all crazy, setting Harden's line well above what it probably should be. He scored 32 and 34 in his first couple of games in NYC, but since then has passed this number just ONCE out of 12 attempts. Obviously, KD being out makes a massive difference to that, but this isn't the first game he's missed. In the five others Harden's played and KD hasn't, Harden has 19, 25, 26, 24 and 19. It's also worth noting that in four of those he has taken 14 shots or less (hardly a recipe for getting 28+ points even withstanding that he gets to the line), and in the only one of those in which he took more than that, Kyrie was also out. Kyrie is playing tonight so hopefully we see sub 15 shots again from Jim, meaning it will take a huge shooting night for him to pass this. Also worth mentioning that although the Kings' defence has been shit this season they have tightened the screws in the past couple of weeks.

Jimmy Butler Over 7 Rebounds

I have this at $1.71 for over 6.5 and $2.40 for over 7.5 in Aussie odds, so have set it at 7 for the purpose of my record. Incidentally I took the +140 for 7.5 because he's passed that number in seven consecutive games. A couple of those he's been right on 8 but nonetheless I think the odds are well and truly in our favour here.

Jimmy Butler Over 7 Assists

Same logic as above re: setting this right on 7 - odds were exactly the same. Butler only managed 5 last game but as I mentioned prior to that game, his passing numbers with Dragic not playing are pretty compelling. The Dragon is once again sitting tonight, so I think Butler's assist numbers will most likely revert to something more like the five games prior to his last where he had at least 9 every night.

Good luck!

@BABYFACE024

Trent is at 18.5 for me so I gave it a miss - also don't like that his shots are down the past couple of games, only taken 12 in each but has gone 9-13 from deep to still score 19 and 26. Think he probably covers but not heaps of margin for error if he doesn't take lots of shots.

Beal covers in the third q, easy peasy. Had a good old scour of the rest of the games but just one more for the day.

Carmelo Anthony Over 14.5 Points

Not a bet I thought I'd be putting on any time soon but Melo is turning back the clock and feeling pretty damn good about himself at the moment. He has scored 21+ in five of his last six and 23+ in his last three so if you can I'd also recommend taking him to score 20+ at +5-600 if you've got it available. Also helps that they are playing arguably the worst defence in the league at the moment in Dallas. 

Good luck!

Team,

No good last night, going 1-2. Got one to start off the early game today and will likely have one or two more later on.

Bradley Beal Over 29.5 Points

For what is a very rare occasion this season we have Beal's line below 30 and I am jumping on it. He is coming off a missed game but that was purely rest-related so should play normal minutes. He has 30+ points in 14 of his 21 games this year, and also generally enjoys the match-up against Boston. He is in the top 6% in the league in mid-range attempts and right up there in efficiency from there as well, and Boston as a group generally gives up a lot of points in that part of the court. The last two times they've played Beal has scored 40+ - not sure if he'll do that again tonight but reckon he should go past 30.

Team,

Bit short on time tonight so will race through these.

Juan Toscano-Anderson Over 6.5 Rebounds

JTA has been playing big for the tiny Warriors and had grabbed 8+ boards in four consecutive games til he only played 21 minutes last game and had 5. This game against the Nets should be played at breakneck speed so lots of boards and he should grab plenty of them.

Jimmy Butler Over 7.5 Rebounds

Butler's been making us good cash lately. He's grabbed at least 8 boards in six consecutive games and is really stuffing the stats sheet so should do it again tonight.

Jimmy Butler Over 7.5 Assists

He's also been going over his dimes totals almost every night and with Dragic still out he should again here. Last five games his assists totals read 9, 9, 9, 10, 10 so back him to get at least 8 here.

Good luck!

Team,

3-1 yesterday so coming back into a little form at last. Tried my best to wizzle (is that a word?) it down to as few bets as possible today with so many games but have ended with five that I like a lot.

Julius Randle Over 22.5 Points

Hoping to capitalise on the Wizards woeful defence here. They give up a whole lot of points to both the PF and C position and have basically no defence against guys like Randle who can bully their way to the rim. He had also scored 22+ in five games in a row prior to his 4-18 effort last game but that was against a much more disciplined and talented defensive unit in the Heat - don't think the Wizards will get the same result.

Kevin Huerter Over 13.5 Points

Hit with Kevin the other day and going for it again for the same reasons. Since Hunter's been out he's taken on a bigger role and is doing a great job - in his last four games he's had 21, 16, 19 and 23, and is taking 15-odd shots and hitting three's at a decent clip.

Lonzo Ball Over 13.5 Points

Lonzo does tend to get on streaks particularly with his shooting, and at the moment he is balling. He's passed this six games in a row now, and while granted he has been hitting his three at an unsustainable clip it hasn't been completely outrageous and he's scoring in a multitude of ways. Dallas' defence is a debacle at the moment and this should be close and high scoring so he should go comfortably past this again.

Al Horford Over 20.5 Points + Assists

Gilgeous-Alexander is out again, as is Theo Maledon (less important) which leaves OKC very thin in the facilitating and scoring department. Horford is playing like a guy on a team with no other options, and has taken 18+ shots in his last three games. If he does that again he'll probably pass this total on points alone, but I went for the points + assists because he's had 8 dimes in two of the three games recently which Shai has missed. In the last two of those his points + assists totals have been 33 and 34, while in the other it was 20. Denver should mow them but even if Horford sits the last I think he covers this courtesy purely of how much work he has to do on offence for them.

Gary Trent Jr Over 16.5 Points

Missed out on Gary the other day by the hook, but he has passed this in all of his last five games except for that one. He does obviously rely a lot on his three which I don't always love for a bet as everyone has off nights, but he's getting inside the arc too and taking a whole lot of shots. Also in his favour is that they are playing the Cavs, who are one of the worst teams at defending the three-ball in the league, so he should go for 20 or so IMO.

Good luck!