frzgg

Edit - no Chris Jones for KC on the line.  That's going to have an impact on this game.

When Seattle has the ball

Duane Brown is returning today which is the most important piece for them as it helps solidify their line in a game they will desperately need it.   Seattle is #9 in explosive plays rushing and #7 in the passing game which puts them in total at #5 overall. Green Bay is 14th against the run and 24 against the pass which should allow for the Seahawks to move the ball in the air against the Packers.  While Lynch should get more carries this week, it should be heavy on Lockett and DK.  DK will matchup against Kevin King which GB will do based on King's size but he doesn't have the speed of DK.  I think this will be another week that DK has a great game based on the matchup.  The key will be can Seattle's line holdup long enough for the receivers to get open and Duane Brown returning will go along ways for that.

When Green Bay has the ball

Green Bay is #17 on offense running the ball in explosive plays and 18 for the pass which puts them at 18 and Rodgers lowest ranking of his career.  This is not the same offense that we have historically seen and will not allow them to easily exploit Seattle's run defencies that caused them to be ranked #30 against the run but #16 against the pass.  Seattle's losses have come against teams who can move the ball on the ground in large chunks (Baltimore #1 in explosive plays, SF #3, Ari #2).  The Eagles could not exploit that last week which was as expected as they rank #16 overall. 

Picks

Seattle loses against teams that can consistently move the chains on the ground and that is not the Packers.  Historically they have made up for that with Rodgers through the air but this is not the same Rodgers from years past.

Seattle +3.5

Seattle ML

Crushed the wildcard picks last week going 7-0 on here, back for another round.

Houston @ Kansas City

From an injury standpoint, Fuller back this week makes a world of difference as they are an entirely different offense with him active.  Chris Jones injured himself Thursday and he's now questionable, while he'll most likely play, this injury should have an impact on his performance.  

When Houston has the ball

Houston is #10 on offense in explosive plays and #17 on defense and overall they are 12th with 10% of their plays explosive.  #10th on offense is important here because the Chiefs are #28 in the league on rush defense on explosive plays but more stout in the pass game at #7.  The Texans will try and move the ball on the ground more and use the run to setup the pass which should slow the game down.  This only has an impact if KC doesn't jump out to an early lead and require the Texans to throw more.  I expect the Texans to move the ball on the ground which helps chew up clock (KC only averaged 26 minutes in time of possession at home in 2019) which helps keep the score down in this game.  

When Kansas City has the ball

KC is one of the least explosive plays on offense in the running game ranking 29th in the league with only 33 rushing attempts going for 10 yards or more.  This is where teams typically hurt the Texans as they rank #25 in the league on defense but I don't expect that to happen in this game.  KC is only 10th in the league on explosive pass plays which is not what you would expect with Kelce and Hill (they were #1 in 2018) while Houston is 22nd in the league on defense.  While KC should be able to move the ball on the Chiefs, this is not a strength against weakness matchup like you would expect.

Picks

I don't expect this to be a high scoring game as this is not a game of strength vs weakness from offense to defense but more the inverse.  I think this game stays low scoring which allows the Texans to cover and the game to go under 51.  I also like the under in the first half, Texans are 31st in the league in first quarter scoring averaging 2 points a game and I expect this to be a slower start.

Under 51

1H U24.5

Hou +10

Not sure why that stayed in the quote, Go Hawks

Houston -2.5 

Tennessee +5.5 

Vikings +8 

Vikings +15 

Vikings/Saints O42 

Tennessee +12.5 

Tennessee ML 

Lane Johnson is out, he's not "not at 100%", he's out.  Seahawks do not have a starting guard out either, it's the LT Duane Brown who is replaced by Fant.

And in regards to Seahawks vs Eagles WR's, this isn't a discussion.  Seahawks have significantly better receivers in Lockett and DK.  Eagles clearly have advantage at TE though.  

I looked at every single game this week and one stood out like a sore thumb.  This might be the most confident game I've ever analyzed based on the #'s. 

Let's start off by looking at the playoff teams by turnover differential.  This historically has had a clear trend line to playoff teams and those who make a deep run which is evident by #1-7 are all playoff teams and 10 of the top 11.

#1 - Patriots

#2 - Saints

#3 - Packers

#4 - Seahawks

#5 - Vikings

#6 - Ravens

#7 - Chiefs

#9 - Titans

#10 - Bills

#11 - 49ers

#16 - Texans

#22 - Eagles

For reference, in 2018 the top 7 also all made the playoffs with the Superbowl match up #4 vs #5.  

Next - my favorite stat in football is both explosive plays and toxic differential.  Explosive plays on offense are 20+ yard gains through the air or 10+ yards on the rush and toxic differential is the delta between toxic allowed on defense vs produced on offense.

#8 overall is Seattle with a balanced attack ranking 8th in offense and 10th in passing. 

Seattle’s struggles defensively have primarily been driven by the run game as they are 30^th in the league in explosive runs allowed but 18^th in passing.  Seattle has 5 losses this year as they finished 11-5, the 5 losses came from teams ranked #9, #8, #12, #1 and #2.  Against teams that were #13 or higher, they finished 11-0.  The Eagles are 19^th in explosive plays on offense in the running game. 

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles are known to have a stout defensive line that limits the run game, however they ranked 19^th in the league on defense against the run with 12% of carries going for 10+.  Seattle has the 8^th ranked offense for explosive plays with 13% of their runs going for 10+ yards.  You can say that was before injuries but that rate was even higher against the 49ers on Sunday with Homer and Lynch getting all of the carries.

Strength of Schedule.  The Seahawks finished #1 overall in strength of schedule and still managed to scrape out 11 wins with 10 of them coming within a single possession (they can win close games).  The Eagles finished at 9-7 playing the 29^th toughest schedule in the league.

From an injury standpoint, they lose Mychal Kendricks but get back Quandre Diggs and potentially Duane Brown, although Fant handled Bosa just fine last week.

The Seahawks are the better team, 7-1 on the road this season and 5-1 on natural grass.  I don’t think this is a game we sweat, give me the Seahawks -1.5 in the biggest game I’ll have ever played.

Usually these games start off a little slower, looking at 1H under but LSU leads by at least a touchdown at the half.

Oklahoma/LSU 1H U38.5

LSU 1H -6.5

Louisville +2 over Kentucky