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Ante-Post book: Solomini 25/1 EW, 33/1 EW Magnum Moon 16/1 Hofburg 20/1 EW Tricky one. Didn't think much of last year's Juvenile class hence taking the default EW bet Good Magic for the Juvenile race. He pissed up nicely. Not sure he is improving though. Think this year's equivalent of Exaggerator is Solomini and like him a lot. Some concern over his inability to switch leads but seems to do that ok in his last workout. Price makes him worth a shot. Form already entitles him to be thereabouts and if he can improve a little bit more now he seems to have learned to switch leads, he has win possibilities. The Draw of 17 is a concern given statistics about that post but it isn't impossible.
Magnum Moon I have in the book but gone right off him. The way he hung right at the end of his last start suggests there is a quirk yet to reveal itself. Could be tiredness and the trip might stretch him too. Also has the Apollo curse to overcome. Have the option to cash out for a small profit but not sure yet.
Hofburg I just added couple of days ago. Think he is strong contender for the Belmont Stakes but concerned over lack of experience. Think, given his experienced connections (Juddmonte, Mott) and the rarity they actually run a bonafide Derby contender in recent years, this could be indicative of the ability he has at home or the chances they think he has. Worth having onside.
Not sure I'll add any more! Do like Good Magic and Vino Rosso but can't back them all! If they drift in the market to perhaps 16/1 and 20/1 respectively, I might add them as savers but Solomini is the undisputed top pick for me. Both Magnum Moon and Hofburg solid savers.
From a European perspective, Mendelssohn is very much an unknown. The problem isn't just the surface but also his breeding. Scat Daddy seems to be a massive influence for speed. As popular and sexy a stallion he is, it's a big jump from siring turf Group One winning sprinters to siring a Kentucky Derby winner. His dam has the Rialto/Sif stamina influence in her pedigree giving him a decent shot at staying the trip. For me, it's a price thing as I'm unwilling to want to pay 9/2 to find out whether he acts on dirt. |
vetdrm | 41 |
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Hi guys! Long time! Cracking Cheltenham just gone by and really looking at every ante-post market going! Kentucky Derby is the current focus. Solomini 25/1 EW- Every year, there's always a consistent sort that always finishes in the money or near enough. He looks the equivalent horse to the likes of Lookin at Lee, Exaggerator, Dortmund. Solomini has rock solid form at the top level. I followed the same logic in backing Good Magic for the BC Juvenile last season and it paid off. At 20s, looks worth a shot at some place money and just perhaps, may have enough improvements/consistency to snatch a win. Ticks the profile boxes as well as pedigree and is a player. If anyone has more thoughts surrounding those two, I'd love to read them as well as other contenders. Off topic, the Dubai World Cup meeting is next week. I'm a little miffed to see Pavel entered there! Would've liked to see connections work back from the Classic and be patient but can't understand the pot hunting as it's a tough race for one so inexperienced. Massive price though but surely West Coast's to lose. Good luck all! |
realscififan | 3 |
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Can anyone offer any insights into Del Mar? Not familiar with it. I do know Santa Anita so comparisons with that track would be appreciated. Draw bias, pace bias, type of track (wide sweeping turns or tight), etc
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giant_causeway | 7 |
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BC Mile Deauville 50/1 BC Turf Ulysses 12/1, 8/1 BC F and M Turf Shutter Speed 16/1 Usherette 20/1 Added: Suedois 14/1 BC Mile- Kicking myself for not requesting a price before last night. Would surely have been offered perhaps 20/1. Still I can't not have him onside. Lancaster Bomber 20/1 BC Mile- He could be running this weekend which is a better fit than going for the QE Mile a week later. Tbh, I thought he was unlucky last time out in Canada though he was getting plenty of weight from World Approval.
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giant_causeway | 7 |
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Very small ante-post book so far.
BC Mile Deauville 50/1 BC Turf Ulysses 12/1, 8/1 BC F and M Turf Shutter Speed 16/1 Usherette 20/1 Ulysses is the biggest punt by far. Would like to build a bigger book. Missed out on Clemmie for Juvenile Filly Turf at 10s! Now 4s! BC Mile is the one I think has plenty of juice in. Would love to back Suedois but not quoted in UK. Runs tonight in the Shadwell Mile. 16/1 over here and that is way too big imo and can't let him go unbacked. Also backed Destin at 16/1 in Jockey CLub Gold Cup. Markets are pretty much very mature especially in the Classic and Turf. THe Classic is one race I normally have something in but missed boat on plenty. Definitely didn't see Arrogate's regression coming! In hindsight, should've played for place money but a bit late now! Thoughts appreciated
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giant_causeway | 7 |
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Bit underwhelming!!! Think the best horse in that race was Classic Empire. Massive pace bias imo with the drying surface making it much quicker than the normal tiring standard. It was a rough race and I thought jockeys cannot head for the rails straight from the break??? The outside horses all did so and carved up the middle drawn!!
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RLeith35 | 7 |
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69: How is the track? Slop? How's it been on dirt? Merry go round all speed? Biased towards closers? How turf course look? Same questions! How;s everyone?? Hope all are well! Not been too active on the KD. PLayed Classic Empire, Sonneteer and McCraken for EW singles. Quite interested in race 5. Couple of ex Euros in Forge and Ghurair. Can't see recent form though but think Forge can possibly become a top class miler. Only bout 108 class in the UK but not beyond realms of possibility he can improve a good few pounds if he is racing on Lasix or other medications.
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BDA11 | 28 |
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have to do it the hard way bud. PEdigreequery has the DI and COD for each horse
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giant_causeway | 45 |
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No problem! Lord Nelson out of BC Sprint EW thievery bit me in the arse there!
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giant_causeway | 45 |
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Good Samaritan 12/1 EW
Dortmund- No bet Hydrangea 6/1 EW Songbird- No Bet XXXX Seventh Heaven 5/1 EW/Queens Trust 8/1 EW Lord Nelson 4/1 EW Washington DC 6/1 EW XXXX Highland Reel 5/1 EW XXXX Miss Temple City 20/1 EW Frosted 91 EW GL all! Still working on the juvenile dirt races and F and M Sprint. Probably no bet it or just pick something for interest on the day.
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Roused | 14 |
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running Lasix-free - two Europeans, Ulysses and Dutch Connection -
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giant_causeway | 45 |
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FOrgot. Seventh Heaven rating achieved over 12F. Lots to ponder here!
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giant_causeway | 45 |
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Fillies and Mares Turf
Seventh Heaven 118 Queen's Trust 115+ (unexposed over 10F) Lady Eli 114 Nuovo Record 114 Catch a Glimpse 112 Sea Calisi 112 Al's Gal 111 Pretty Perfect 110 THat concludes my personal base ratings. This does NOT factor in weight for age allowances. |
giant_causeway | 45 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Upside: Can you please help me out if possible with any rating you can send me in regards to the contenders on BC days ??? Yours would be fine ... I will check racingpost.com as well ... Thank u bro ! Only can give ratings for 2 races: - = Declining + = improving Mile: Limato 122 (Achieved over 6F) Alice Springs 118 Tepin 116- Dutch Connection 115+ (Fast ground scope still there) Spectre 115 Miss Temple City 114+ (further exposure over a Mile) Ironicus 114 Cougar Mountain 112 Hit It A Bomb 110 Tourist 110 If this race was run on a Straight mile, I've no doubts the Euros dominate. But over this tight track, with likely hold up rides could leave them vulnerable to traffic problems. My bet is Miss Temple City EW as I think she can improve on her base rating. Ryan Moore has the near rail draw but that could prove her undoing as she has normally been held up and a rail draw leaves her vulnerable to getting boxed in unless her jockey breaks fast and sit prominently. Dutch Connection is interesting too as he loves very quick ground. He's a player in this for sure along with Spectre whose best form puts her in the picture. Turf Found 124 (achieved over 10F) Highland Reel 120 Flintshire 119 Mondialiste 116 (Achieved over a mile) Ectot 115 Ulysses 108 Found should take this on her best form. Even if I think she ran to 122 in the Arc (thought it way below average renewal), that should still be enough to win this. Flintshire in the past has run higher but cannot rate him higher then 119 on his body of work this season. |
giant_causeway | 45 |
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Strong rumours Found goes to turf! Obviously didn't take to dirt. Annoyed as back Highland Reel but should still get money at the least with a top 3
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giant_causeway | 45 |
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yes. Both odds on. Can surely find better value in backing place, show on another horse??? Not my thing backing shorties but good luck if you're playing both. Both should win but easy pass for me. Rather bet EW or wait for without favourite market on the day. Best of luck
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Roused | 5 |
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Bit of EW thievery here! 4/1 EW Lord Nelson taken! Still like AP Indian but greater scope to improve is my angle and 3 places in play for money back!
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giant_causeway | 45 |
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So far:
Dortmund 25/1 Classic- NON RUNNER Seventh Heaven 5/1 EW F & M Turf Highland Reel 5/1 EW Turf Frosted 9/1 EW Classic Miss Temple City 20/1 EW Mile Good Samaritan 12/1 EW Juvenile Turf Hydrangea 6/1 EW Juvenile Turf Fillies Queen's Trust 8/1 EW F & M Turf |
giant_causeway | 45 |
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Despite backing Seventh Heaven, I'm a little uneasy on her now. She has looked good in winning Group 1s but has looked in need of every inch of the mile and half at the Curragh and at York, tracks that are far more testing in nature than the tight turns of Santa Anita. As a consequence, I've decided to add Queen's Trust as an EW saver. She is owned by the Queen as the name implies and trained by master handler Sir Michael Stoute. She isn't far behind Seventh Heaven at all and in fact, looks more suited to a speed test over 10F than her rival. She finished second behind Minding in the Nassau at Goodwood which is a sharp track by British standards and has the class to be a player. Firm ground is no bother to her and at 8/1, she's worth a play. On the radar are five horses that do not tempt in terms of investing now rather then on the day. Quite simply they are short for my tastes and perhaps worth including in mulitples. Washington DC's defection here rather then Champions Day was annoying as he had his conditions at Ascot and the way the race panned out, he may well have beaten The Tin Man. Of course, holding 20/1 tickets on a probable 7/1 chance without the chance to find out does sway opinions! That said, he looks a cut above his US rivals as well as his fellow European challengers. The draw is key as like Chantilly, there is a short distance to run before the turn into the main track. Intricately has the best form by far but Aidan O'Brien throws a curveball in running Hydrangea, runner up in the Moyglare and the Fillies Mile. She is a huge threat given she is a prominent runner whilst Roly Poly has to be strongly respected given her War Front breeding and love for firm ground. Much depends on the draw and whichever of the trio is drawn lowest will have a firm advantage. The US trio of AP Indian, Songbird and Dortmund look the standouts in their respective division and at current prices, they could be worth including into a small treble. On the Radar: Washington DC (Breeders Cup Turf Sprint) 7/1 Intricately/Hydrangea (Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf) 9/2, 6/1 AP Indian (Breeders Cup Sprint) 7/2 Songbird (Breeders Cup Distaff) Evens Dortmund (Breeders Cup Dirt Mile) 11/10
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giant_causeway | 45 |
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Miss Temple City at 20/1 EW is hugely interesting for the Mile where favourite Tepin remains vulnerable. Limato and Alice Springs are good horses but both could be vulnerable to traffic problems around these tight turns if they stick to the tactics that they have used this season. Ironicus is useful but Miss Temple City is the top US horse for me. She has faced Ervedya and Usherette on foreign soil and has been far from disgraced. She isn't far behind Alice Springs in form and rates the value of the race. She is versatile tactically and should be thereabouts with home advantage in her locker. She has smart form over a mile, loves the conditions she faces here and quite simply, is still unexposed in these conditions with the potential for more improvements to come. The news Found takes on the might of California Chrome, Arrogate and Frosted should excite all racing fans! There are many who say she should go to Hong Kong and Japan if connections wanted to split their Arc winner and Highland Reel but in doing, she has nothing to prove having won an Arc already. In trying dirt, she follows in the hoofsteps of Sakhee, the last and perhaps only Arc de Triomphe winner to have attempted the double. Aidan O'Brien has had five runners in the Classic going closest of all with Giant Causeway. Henrythenavigator came second but on Polytrack whilst Declaration of War managed a very good third to Mucho Macho Man. So You Think finished midfield in Zenyatta's Classic whilst George Washington sadly broke down on the surface on his return from a failed stallion career. However of the famous five, only two could be described as having iron constitution: Giant Causeway and Declaration of War. That is relevant as dirt is a brutal surface for horses and only teak tough horses can withstand the rigours of dirt. Found is in the same mould as her trainer's previous iron horses. She may have been knocked for finishing second plenty of times but you have to admire her ability to produce consistent runs in a quantity more common in handicappers then Group 1 horses. Should she take to the surface, I can see her going very close. The burning question: Would I back her? The answer's no! As a pragmatic bettor, the percentage call is to oppose. The favourite California Chrome looks rock solid but he has had a long season and there isn't much between the big three on RPR ratings. Thus Frosted looks the standout bet at 9/1 EW. Put simply, he hasn't been tested every time he has put in huge performance figures. This time he has no excuses but to perform. Quite simply, he is best fresh off an absence of 8 weeks or more. He gets that here though why connections ran him last time out when third to Shaman Ghost is a mystery given it is obvious he is best fresh! 9/1 isn't a fancy price but it is an EW price that could be seen as a potential free bet to nothing and is well worth investing in. |
giant_causeway | 45 |
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