JBone_Texas

Correction:  Notre Dame also gets Chicago market.

They got it pretty close to where they want it.

Alabama - most of the Dirty South

Oklahoma - Texas and fly overs

Clemson - maybe some of the east, Nascar, and Dirty South stragglers

Notre Dame - parts of both East and West Cost

Forgot football stuff for a second, not at all surprised if they put Ohio St in.  Demographics would be better, you won't lose Texas because they love football but you would pick up the East Coast.  Ohio St has double the alumni that OU does, at least.

Arkansas (one way rivalry, some very bad Ark teams have won or come close in this spot)

Hmm, Texas typically owns Tech, what's that Texas a small road favorite, sucker

Penn St

Just need to beat Cuse and at USC and ND in playoff, I'm sure they are taking Florida St very seriously in practice this week

Hey look, Ohio State's on sale!

Kentucky a good lesson for us gamblers, a different situation might have snuck up on Geo.  At home though, in possibly the biggest football game in state history.  That D got worked, that was the surprise.  And didn't look like they thought they could, that is the coach.

A&M, they absolutely dominated.  Before those last 2 drives it was something like 180 to -5 rushing and 20 to 5 1st D.  Mond looked like he could be something special after that Clemson game, he has done nothing but regress since.  He was awful vs Aub and nearly single handedly lost that game.  Both his decision making and his mechanics have worsened.  Back to back conference roadies are tough but thats the deal in the SEC.

Is LSU any better than A&M?  Different I would say but no better.  LSU's biggest problem isn't the QB its that OL.  And the defense has an unusual lack of pass rush from their DL.  Compare those box scores and consider A&M's best 2ndary player was ejected in 1Q, Tua was healthy, and they were at Alabama.

It is a very close race but I have the B10 edging out the P12 for the worse P5 conference.  The ACC isn't far behind.  This is a down year for NCAA in general, hell TCU and OKlite may not make a bowl and this might be the worse K-State ever under Snyder.  A few tiers, Bama and maybe Clemson, ND/Georgia/Oklahoma, then a whole mess of Average Joe's Gym members.  I put OU in there because their offense is elite and because the sport is so down they could beat just about anyone on a given day despite their D.  I keep thinking that D is going to show some pride and can't possibly be that bad, and I'm constantly disappointed.  Michigan gets whacked because the B10 is so bad.  I think Purdue is the 2nd best team in the B10.  I think either Fresno St or Utah St could make a run at winning the P12.  And I think UCF would be playing Clemson for the ACC championship game.

Passing gets all the press but it is real important to run well enough to move the chains.  Just ask Gus.  Note Iowa St might be moving off the list with the new QB.  Forgot West Virginia at 4.37 and likely moving down the list, they were 1-10 on 3rd down with an average of 9 yards to go on those 3rd downs.

Busy but thought this could be useful.  If we use 4.5 ypc as avg here is a list of teams, perhaps surprising, under that. NC St was on the list early but seems to have found something with the change of pace back.

Ohio St  4.45 

Colorado 4.31

Washington 4.26

Notre Dame 4.20

Auburn 4.11

Iowa 3.97

Texas 3.93

USC 3.93

Fresno 3.72

Iowa St 3.66

Mich St 3.42

Stanford 3.20

FSU 3.10

NWestern 2.30

Saban needs a close one in order to get the troops in shape, he was serious about his concerns but those kids don't hear any of that when they have 65 pts on the scoreboard.  There will be a tester in the regular season, is it this week or next?  Mizzou is a pretty good candidate for the role.  Gonna need to be able to pass, so Miss St is out.

As much as I have wanted them to be a fraud, Notre Dame is not.  Very good D, would have liked to see Va. Tech put a little more pressure on them and they were headed that way until that QB did a dumb dumb and gave them that scoop and score.  Very nice win, easy for even a great team to drop that game.

A&M/Kentucky.  Kentucky is no joke, they hit hard and get after it on D.  QB is a problem, he doesn't really turn the ball over though and Snell and OL will handle most teams.  A&M way, way different team than under Sumlin.  Well coached and very good D.  OL very good (now gone up against Clemson, Bama, and Kentucky front 7s).  They have the potential to not lose another game if they stay healthy (defensive depth a concern....safety D. Wilson very key player).  And they are young, so expect big things next year.  Monde needs to clean up the turnovers though.

Thought FLA was overrated and Miss St would bounce back last week, adjusted to Florida and stayed on point with Miss St.  No way they were not going to play hard after Gus ran up the score on them last year.  FLA not great yet, but coaching making a huge difference and they can at least move the chains with that offense and the D is still pretty talented.

NW, desparate....check your schedules, Mich St cruising and look ahead.  understand the scenario before reaching for wallet.  Pitt desparate.....check your history, that math was telling you Cuse should win by 15+, but no SU win in series (played every year) at Pitt since 1999 or something.

That Big Tex game is like...Big Tex...a big clown...show.  Horns D had good stats but didn't look like they could stop OU....guess Maryland, USC, TCU, and K-State offenses really do suck, offense stats now padded too.  Not hating just telling it like it is.

Big 10 vs Pac 12 for bottom feeder P5 conference....SEC by far #1.  Gambler not fan talking there.

Who is Brock Purdy and how did the Mullet let him complete 80% of his passes for 318 yards?  Texas Tech win now clearer, OSU 2ndary is really really bad.

Speaking of desperate, Bill Snyder and his Cats.  Old Dominion can't stop anyone but they can score through the air.

Not getting any easier from here on, I made a lot of good calls on games this week (no don't post them all, I'm really not good enough for anyone to be tailing)...but still didn't manage to MAKE any money.  Culling out the losers is just as important as picking the winners.  So looking forward to a little teamwork in this thread.

Damn, could have used that under.....a 57 yarder no less

meh, maybe one more series....like double digits

Time to get on OU?

Still early....stats really stood out and had me reaching for the wallet too.  Busy so didn't get to this until late this AM but Cuse has not won at Pitt since 2001 I believe.  And although they did win at Cuse LY their SU record vs Pitt is a real eye opener going back this decade.  Also believe Cuse is 6-20 SU on the road since 2014.

Sorry not trying to be a spoiler but thought I would mention as to why the line was so off from the stats and maybe an opportunity to layoff some risk in-game.

Love State.  Like Wash St team but careful this week, don't like them in this spot.     

The D is troubling, although I'm more forgiving than most for the Kentucky game.  Much respect to Mullen, that was a great gameplan on offense....kept the chains moving.  Unlike years past Auburn cannot just simply get fired up and turn the run game on.  Not scared of those WRs and the OL can't give Stidham any time.  If Gus were smart he would study the Florida gameplan, but I don't think he is.  Add to it that MSU got embarrassed last yr there with Gus running up the score 49-10....21 in 4th Q and 28 in 2H.   Also recall that was a bad spot for MSU w/ LSU / @ Georgia and then @ Auburn.  Aub ran for 244 in that one at 6.3 ypc.  This yr (not counting Alcorn)  147 (3.3) vs Wash / 130 (3.4) vs LSU / 91 (2.5) vs Ark / 96 (2.7).  These are all at home so first road game and instead of progressing the offense is getting worse with OL shuffling and no chemistry being built. 

Probably in the minority but I see good recipe for backing MSU.  Think MSU will be practicing hard this week and some of those drops turn into catches this week.  Flip the script, if State gets a decent lead no way Auburn has a gameplan to comeback and that DL will tee off on Stidham.

A few possible nuggets.  

Muschamp makes excellent D adjustments, 2nd str wk SC held opponent scoreless in 2H.  They really shut down Kentucky in 2H.  Kentucky is a nice squad but not sold on their secondary and that QB is nothing special passing....btwn a lot of dropped pass vs MSU and USCe and Bentley under throws there are a lot of WRs getting open.

Saw something about Auburn maybe just nothing to see vs S. Miss.  Nice D but that offensive line is putrid, S. Miss had 2 sacks coming in and got 3 and held Auburn to 91 yds rushing, the offensive was bad before the weather delay.  They are a dumpster fire on offense and seems to be getting worse, its 5 gms in this isn't a quick fix.

Not sure what to make of Miss St, again a lot of dropped balls by WR.  But the D, is puzzling.  Mullen had a lot of quick throws and mixed it up to protect the awful FLA offensive line, but the tackling by MSU was most of it.

Ole Miss is the worst coached team I've seen so far.  They actually did a nice job on D stopping the LSU run, but forgot about the QB and the 2ndary is just awful, especially tackling.  Also those self-claimed nasty WRs don't run good routes or help their QB out and dropped like 6 big passes.  LSU QB is going to get clocked and LSU OL is a glaring weakness.

Texas really is that bad on offense.  K-State w/ Delton as QB could do nothing, Texas gameplan surely had to include getting a big lead and coasting to victory with OU on deck.  They scored 19 pts, 7 off a punt return TD, and some off TOs.  KSU shut them out 2H and w/ change to QB Thompson looked completely different on O.  KSU turned over on downs at Texas 2 just before half, otherwise they upset the Horns.

Speaking of bad offense, Pitt.  Actually are they good at anything?  How'd they let UNC's bad QB throw all over them.  Certainly can't handle a mobile QB either, Penn St and UCF lit them up.  UCF is eventually going to play a team that can exploit that all or nothing D.

-11

Don't think I've seen a single post about this game.  ISU can't score

Vape pen talking...

North Texas would beat 7 teams in the Big 10, that's half the conference.

Stanford w/ Bryce Love as a senior can't run the ball.  They have played a bit tougher schedule than most, but still telling.

FLA churns out a lot of alumni and with the vape pens no one remembers past 1.2 weeks.  Bookies gonna eventually catch up with Buffalo but they are probably wondering WTF?  They hung Buffalo up as a road favorite....road favorite vs a Power 5 team...yes in name only Power 5 but not everyone betting has an IQ of 90+ like myself...haha.  And what did they do, smacked them by 29 pts.  Last yr not really the same scenario, Army has to be a little sore and tired, travel from Okie to NY and they ran like 109 plays last week.  Might win by 7 though?

Charleston Southern, Colorado St....after getting a W vs crappy Ark at hm so bad team w/ no interest, Tenn.  That is +10 turnovers, they have 10 fumble recoveries on the year.  It was raining, riding the high, and looking ahead to this week.  Miss St is certainly over rated some, he is not a great passer but his WRs dropped some balls.  And best part is how are you gonna tell 18-20 year old kids who are 3-1 and off back to back blowout wins that they aren't good?  They are probably looking ahead to upsetting LSU next week.

FLA has no offense, they have not been able to run the ball for at least 7 years and Franks is horrible.  And the D stats are padded by those chumps they played, eye test says the defense has slipped....maybe 40 to 50th?  Some bourbon math I did the other day had MSU winning by 16-24 pts.

FLA get a Wahoo-ing this week.