jdc1177

Hey all, 

13 point 4 team teaser pays -120

WVU -4.5: Baylor has been awful lately. Should be at least a 10 point margin for WVU.
SDSU/WYO over 47: Wyoming has gone over 47 in every game this year. Their offense and QB have played very well this year. The game they just played against each other was well over 47. I see the game as a toss up but should be higher scoring.
Florida/Bama under 54: Florida can't score on good defenses, I don't see them putting up more than 10 if they're lucky on an elite defense. And they should hold Bama to under 34 or so points.
Penn State +16: Game should be close, I don't see Wisconsin as being that much better than Penn State especially on a netural field.

100/83.33

Thoughts? I almost played Temple/Navy over 47 but the way Temple has played D as of late had me a bit worried.

I've already in for 1st half under 30. I feel pretty confident in the play and am looking at the full game under 59 as well.
I have the sense that with Texas' ineffective offense that the game could take two tracks and both support the under. ND could win easy something like 30-13 or it could be a close game something like 21-17. I just don't see a shoot out between the two teams with Texas potentially starting a true freshman at QB in Shane Buechele and ND losing a chunk of their o-line, leading rusher from last year and top three wide outs.

Any thoughts either way?

I'm on 1st half under 21.5 and Georgia Tech TT under 23.5.

GT is only returning 5 starters on offense and lost 3 offensive line men. BC is returning 7 starters on D which was one of the best in country last year. Both teams will be breaking in new QB's, I'm probably gonna hit the under for the game too which is at 43 right now at my book.

I locked once it hit -7. I'm quite confident in this play. Coach Synyder said that this K-State team is probably the youngest he's had in 25 years there. Their o-line is very young with redshirt freshman at both LT and LG which benefits Stanford obviously.

In regards to my comment about Hogan, I just felt that while watching Stanford last year he got in the way many times. Don't know much about their new QB but I foresee that Shaw will pound K-State up the middle and using CM in space to gain chunk yardage while keeping things simple with screens and quick passes.

3-0 on regular plays and lost the parlay. Overall a profitable day. Let's hope it continues.

I think Stanford and Shaw in particularly will want to start this season with a bang after last years terrible opening game against NW. Stanford lost some pieces on D but their offense didn't get too depleted other than Hogan (probably a good thing) as far as I know.

Any thoughts on this play?

Official plays for me for tonight:
Tulane +17 50/43.48
Vandy 1st half -3 50/50
Louisville 1st half 100/90.91
Parlay: MIN -13, Vandy/SC 1st half under 21, WKY/RICE over 63, Patriots +3 25/288.10

I would consider it but my book doesn't have team totals posted yet. Sometimes they don't post them.

I'm liking the first half play a little more after further research. Charlotte is returning 9 starters on both sides of the ball, which doesn't really concern me too much considering how awful they were last year losing their last 10 games. The only power 5 team they played last year was Kentcuky who blew them out 58-10. And Kentucky is not very good at all either.
Probably going to put down a few units on this.

Louisville opening up at home against the dreadful Charlotte 49ers who only won 2 games last year and appear to belong in the FCS.
Louisville at -39 kind of scares me if they let the foot off the petal in the 2nd half/4th quarter.
I'm liking -24 for the 1st half quite a bit.
I don't see Charlotte scoring at all in the first half, maybe a field goal.
Thoughts?

I think you are slightly underestimating the speed/skill of NE's linebackers. Collins and Hightower is a top 5 LB combo in the league. Collins may be one of the most athletic linebackers in the league, you may have some other valid points but I think you may be going off false assumptions and not game film of the linebackers. When Denver and New England met in the regular season Denver started the game rushing the ball 15 times for under 3 yards a carry. Hightower got hurt, Denver then rushed the ball 15 times for over 8 yards a carry and three TD's.
Just some food for thought. In my opinion if New England can take Denver's running game out of the game it should be easy to stop Manning. Not saying that they will but I can see that happening as Belichick usually tries to take the opposing teams best player out of the game, which in this case is their running game.
Also in the regular season I believe New England scored 31 points if I'm not mistaken. And that was without Edelman, Amendola and with Gronkowski leaving in the second half with a knee injury. The highest targeted receiver in that game for NE was Scott Chandler, I don't think that will be the case on Sunday. Also remember that Denver's D was nearly the same in that regular season matchup (Ware did not play).
After reading your posts I think you are overthinking the game slightly. NE looks easy to bet on this week, which surely scares me too. However, if you look at the matchups in the game it really is one sided. Coaching, offense and ST going to New England and defense going to Denver (not by a huge margin in my opinion).
Just something to think about.

Best of luck.

Just an FYI in the regular season matchup Denver rushed for 179 yards and 3 td's. Donta Hightower left the game around halftime (if my memory serves me correctly). With Hightower on the field Denver rushed 15 times for 43 yards. When Hightower was off the field Denver rushed for 136 yards and 3 touchdowns. I think the original posted is slightly biased but definitely has a valid premise. It will be interesting to see the health of Hightower as well as Collins on the injury report today.

Hey all,

I've been trying to get a read on tonight's game. After looking through the prop bets I saw a few that peeked my interest.  One in particular was Mariota rushing yards 15.5.

A few thoughts that I have backing the over 15.5 rushing yards. It was going to be pretty crappy weather in Jacksonville tonight with thunder storms in the area.

The Titans are losing weapons in the passing game, down Kendell Wright and Justin Hunter for the year which leaving his top weapons at receiver the rookie Green-Beckham and an underwhelming Harry Douglass who has struggled to stay healthy. He does still have his favorite weapon in Delanie Walker but that is one legitimate weapon in the passing game for the Titans.

The Jags have played 4 teams with what I would classify as mobile quarterbacks. E.J Manuel (8 rush/38 yards), Winston(4rush/9 yards), Tannehill (3 rush/17 yards) and Cam Newton (14 rush/35 yards). Which hints that they give up a fair amount of yards to mobile quarterbacks, not a significant amount but still a fair amount. (The Jags also allowed Flacco 2 rushes for 17 yards last week)

The Titans have not really used Mariota has a runner a lot this year (probably wisely). He has only rushed for double digit yards 3 times in his 7 games he's played. In their last game against Carolina he put up 24 yards on 5 rushes.  He is only averaging a little over 14 rushing yards a game.

That's the information that I've gathered.  I'm leaning putting a few units on the over. Anyone have thoughts on it one way or another?

Good luck this season!

Hey all,

I'm already locked in with

Western K. -2

Tulane +7.5

Hawaii +7.5

I'm looking at Tennessee -20.5, I like the way their offense was playing to finish up the year last year and their defense is one of the best in country, feel like they should have no problem with  a MAC team (even though Bowling Green is one of the better ones)

Thanks for any feedback

Hey,

Love your opinions and how you approach games.

Any thoughts on BC +5 @ V-Tech? Boston College's defense looks legit and VT has been so up and down this year and just got blown out by Miami? BC also hasn't lost this year by more than 10 and that was only once with their other loses against Colorado St. by 3 and Clemson by 4. 

Thanks for the input.