Juicedd

@Juicedd

1U LSU/A&M under 66.5: 

I think the Aggie defense can do enough to slow down the LSU offense and force them into some punts or FG attempts. I don't think this is a game that LSU gets to 40 in. Obviously LSU's defense has been leaky all year, but A&M's offense is not the most explosive and they will have to go into Death Valley which will make the task taller. I think A&M will try to limit possessions in this game and do enough defensively to keep this game played in the 50s. 

1U UNLV -2.5 I've said it before, I really like what Odom has done with this team.  San Jose state has been hot lately, but I think UNLV is a battle tested team. The tempo of UNLV's offense can create issues for San Jose state and I just don't imagine UNLV losing this one at home. Give me the Rebels under a FG. 

1U Clemson/ S. Car Under 49.5: Gamecocks struggle against teams they can't block, Clemson is one of those teams. I anticipate the Clemson defense blanketing the Gamecocks on offense. It's also a rivalry game on the road, so I think it's possible that Clemson struggles some on offense. I like Clemson to roll in this one but don't imagine that it becomes a shootout. May lay the points w/ Clemson if it dips to under a Td. 

Leaning: 

Lousiville -7.5: 

UCLA -9:

BOL.

Happy Thanksgiving! 

1U Michigan -3. 

I'm a Michigan fan, but laying a FG feels light to me. Obviously, it's possible they lose this game, but here's why I like them. 

This game (like most) has historically been won in the tranches. Both teams have strong defenses that can create issues for the opposing offense, but I think overall Michigan has the stronger front 7. An interesting matchup to watch is both teams ability to control the edge. Defensively, Michigan has to control the edge to contain Henderson and force things to the middle of the field where I think their defensive line will dominate; If Michigan can keep things between the tackles in the run game they can get OSU behind the sticks and despite the strong receiver core that OSU has, that can be an advantage to Michigan. McCord has struggled under pressure and doesnt seem to be a big threat with his legs, which has been what hurt Michigan the most against PSU and even maryland to a degree. Michigan should be able to create enough pressure to make McCord uncomfortable. Turnovers are another thing to keep an eye on, Michigan has dominated in turnover margin and I think the Wolverines can put themselves in position to force some turnovers with that receipe. 

On the flip side of the ball, the biggest questions I have for Michigan is JJ's health; he appears to have been banged up in the Purdue game and then aggrivating it further against PSU; hopefully he's close to 100% for this one. The other question I have is at Tackle; It appears that Henderson and Hinton should both be good to go against the buckeyes. I think we continue to see more rushing attempts with Corum, Edwards, and I thinK Mullings plays a larger role in this game as the Wolverines will look to wear on the buckeyes defense and slow the pass rush to tee up some shots. While I think the OSU defense is stout, I think it's showed some vulnerability in the run game against better competiton. Penn State seemed to open up some good run lanes, but with questionable playcall they seemed to get away from it. Anyways, the point being, I do think Michigan can establish the run here and scheme up some deep shots for JJ. This will be the best receiving core the Buckeyes have faced and they can create difficult matchups with their TEs and Edwards in the passing game. 

That's a long winded, freestyle way of saying that I see more of a path for Michigan to have consistent offensive success then I do the buckeyes. Saturday can't come soon enough. 

1U Bama -13.5

I was hoping this would drop under two TDs and I want to snag it while it sits there. While I don't think Bama has fully turned a corner, they are a much improved team and they are in do or die mode, style points won't hurt either. Both teams had what was essentially a bye week last week, only one of them came out victorious. I think Nick Saban and Co will come out swinging early in this one and I wonder how Auburn might respond if they get punched in the face early. 

Bama has the stronger roster that has developed throughout the year and I imagine that their defense will be able to severly limit Auburn's offensive attack and Milroe presents a challnege for Auburn that I don't believe they've faced. I think Bama lands a few hits early and cruise to the SEC championship game. 

I'll be back with more plays as I place them; here's what I'm leaning; 

Iowa +2.5 or ML

Mizzou -9

Oregon -13.5

OSU/MICH Over (sitting at 47 right now- it's bounced around a bit)

LSU/A&M Under 66

UNLV -2.5

FSU -6.5

GA -24

UCLA -10

Week: 6-4 +4 Units

YTD: 53-48 +12.5Units

1U Navy -2.5: Navy is fighting for bowl elgibility and it feels like they need this one at home to get there. ECU has played a lot of teams close, but struggled to win those game and so far have a single FBS win. Navy will present a new set of challenges for this defense, which i can see getting worn down through the course of this game. If Navy continues to play strong defense and can control the pace of play, they cruise to a victory and set themselves up to go down the streach and earn bowl elgibilty.

1U UNC +7.5: Interesting matchup- strong on weak on both sides. Clemson seems to be getting right after I wrote them off going into the ND game. UNC has not won @ clemson since 2001. While Clemson's offense has seemed to hit it's stride more, It's still a team that's lead by it's defense. I don't think Clemson has faced an opponent that has the ability to stretch the field like UNC can since FSU; I think Drake Maye and company can make things a bit uncomfortable for Clemson here- 7 with a hook feels valuable..


1U UCLA ML +210: Another interesting matchup w/ UCLA's defense vs USC offense and vice versa. I think UCLA's front is comparable to NDs and I watched ND put williams under a lot of pressure and the result wasn't pretty. If UCLA can make things uncomfortable for williams and slow their attack, they have a chance to win this game. A lot of talk that this will be Chip Kelly's last game, I imagine he goes deep into his bag of tricks in this game and can scheme up enough to take advantage of this USC defense. Maybe i'll feel silly not taking the TD, but at +210, I see value.

1U Lville +1: Cards need to secure their spot in the ACC Championship game. Miami benched Van Dyke, watched his replacement get hurt and now are forced to go back to a QB that knows the team and coaching staff is losing confidence in him. Louisville defense can slow the canes enough and Brohm schemes up enough on offense to win this one.

1U Mizzou -11: They stand on business. Seriously, though, what a response from this team to respond after a devistating loss against GA. FL in the middle of a three game slide that includes a loss to Arkansas. Florida is limping to the finish line here and Mizzou has a chance to win out and finish as a 10 win top 10 team looking at a NY6 bowl .

1U ULM +37.5: Going to hold my nose on this one. But Ole Miss s coming off a bad loss to GA, has to play ULM and then turn around to play the Egg Bowl on Thursday night, the priority should be getting out of this healthy and turning their attention to the short week, 37.5 is a lot of poitns for that spot. Additionally, I played GA last week because I think Ole Miss has a bad defense. So even if Lane wants to light up the score board, it probably takes 50 to cove rthis. The only teams Ole Miss held under 2 scores is Mercer and Vandy- I think ULM can get 10 points.


Leans: Will post them if I play.
OU -25
Michigan TT Over 34.5
Maryland TT Under 14.5

BOL

Plays:
3U GA (posted above 2 @10.5/ 1@ 9.5)
Georgia is clicking, Ladd and Bowers being healthy makes a world of difference for this team and getting healthier on the Oline helps alot. I do not trust Joe Milton to go out there and beat a Georgia team that can move the ball the way this Georgia offense does. Vols can run the ball some, but Mizzou beat them up physically, and Georgia can still bring a level of physicality above Mizzou. I expect GA to go on the road and thump TN.

2U Michigan -21
Wish I waited to snag this- I thought the line would move in the other direction. Tough spot for my Wolverines here coming off a super emotional PSU win and going back on the road with a huge matchup on deck in The Game. However, I stick with my boys here. This is a veteran team that was built around a culture. A lot of noise and distractions out there and a massive let down spot- but this agian, this is a veteran team and despite how great they've been, they feel like they have a lot to prove now. On the other side, Maryland has stumbled pretty bad and this is not a team I want to back when they lose the LOS game- Michigan rolls early.


2U Utah/ AZ Under 46.5: I view this game as a defensive showdown- Utah can drag most teams into the mud and slow down offenses. Arizona has come to life in the middle/ late end of the season, lead by their defense as well. I think Utah struggles to get things going consistently on offense and does enoguh to slow down Arizona. To me this is a 20-17 type of game.


2U UNLV +3- I've been to the well before, and I really like what Odom has done with this team. Air Force presents a new type of challenge for them and they've been successufl in slowing games down being one of the top time of possession teams in the country. However, without Larrier, this seems like a tall task for Air Force to beat the rebels. Air force can slow the game down but if Larrier doesnt go, or isn't right- UNLV can win this one comfortably. I'll take the 3 points

Cont..

GA at -9.5 rn- so I’ll add a 3rd unit to that 

2U -10.5 

1U -9.5

2U 
Michigan -21

GA -10.5

Early action

Back w/ More + write ups

3U Michigan -4.5

I  contemplated a detailed write up here- but it would prob be a whole bunch of TLDR, so here;s what i see as the keys to the game. 

Defensively, Michigan has one of, if not the best and deepest interior defensive line in the country, Penn state's weakness on the Oline is at Guard- I think michigan can control the line of scrimmage and create pressure up the middle and we've seen Allar be unsettled in those spots. Allar's legs don't scare much, so I think Michigan will be willing to send barrett on blitzs and can put PSU in some tough positions. 

Offensively, Michigna obviously faces  it's biggest challenge to date. However, I think the PSU defense likes to be a bit more spread and I think Michigan has personnel sets that can force them to play more condensed. I see 2 TE sets and Edwards in the passing game being an issue for Penn State. 

Despite what people think of Michigan's scheudle, I think this is a better team than last year. I also think penn state is a bit overrated still- hard to win in happy valley but Michigan gets a convincing road win. 

2U GA -11

I don't buy the Ole Miss defense, i've watched some lesser teams move the ball successfully on that unti. Georgia will not beat itself and if they can move the ball on offense, they will name their number. Ole miss can score but the GA defense will do enough to win this one by two scores. Lane coaches games to win and sometimes that results in games going sideways- this can be one of those games with their defense. Dawgs win comfortably. 

2U OK State -2.5

Hangover spot for OK state- but UCF does not match up well here.  UCF's defense is surrendering north of 400 yards per game, with more than up 5 ypc and Oklahoma State's rushing attack has been on fire. I think this is a scenario where Oklahoma state will just wear out the knights defense and 2.5 feels to low. Hopefully they got the IV lines in and can avoid the hangover game. 

1U WVU/ OU Under 58

Looks like it got bet up to 60... interesting. I just look at this one as a more low scoring affair, OU has seemed to be banged up on offense and struggled to get much going as of late, and I thinK WVU can keep the sooners in front of them and force them to sustain drives and settle for 3. While the OU defense has struggled at times, I still view them as improved and the WVU offense doesn't particularly scare me. I think it's more likely to be played in high 40s then in the 60s. 

1U Michigan St. +31 

I think OSU should handle sparty, but 31 just feels a bit to rich. Sparty shoudl be able to generate enough to stay within this number. 

0.5 U Rutgers/ Iowa Over 27.5

I've been burned here before.... but comeon- 27.5.. that's ridiculous. I know both of these teams have good defenses, but Rutgers was able to move the ball on a good ohio state defense last week and there's turnover potential in this one. I will hold my nose and enjoy the ride. only going a half unit...because it's Iowa 

Leans:  I will post if i decide to play them. 

Bama -11 

GA Tech + 14- hoping to catch the hook 

FSU -14 

Zona/ Colorado Under 54.5

Oregon -16

Some early pkays

3 Units Michigan -4.5 write up later.
2 Units GA -11
2Units Oklahoma State -2.5
1 unit WVU/ OU under 58

Rough start to the day- going to play a few of my means:

trusting my boys in blue to be focused, energized,’pissed off and make a statement tonihht
2U all
Michigan -31.5
Much 1H -20.5
Much Tt over 37 -220

1U Washington -2.5

I don't think it's high... but looking at a over 76.5 or so is anxiety provoking.

How does USC stop washington? How does washington stop USC? 76+ just seems rich.. but also the way these teams play, is it? 

other leans I forgot to include but may play- trying to figure out which angles I like the most. 

Mich -32.5 or Team Total Over 37.5 (-215)- For some reason my book doesn't have other numbers for TT w/ less juice? IDK 

Mich 1H -20.5

Washington -3 

Washington / USC over 76.5

Adding the following: 

1U AZ/ UCLA Under 50.5: I considered playing AZ +3 in addition to the under play here, but for now I will hold off. When I look at these two teams I see two strong defenses and offenses that have been a bit more volatile. I think Arizona is hitting it's stride at the right time and is slightly undervalued as a result of a few difficult losses on their schedule. However, the UCLA defense can make things difficult on Arizona, specifically if they can limit their run game, as they've done to others. On the other side of the Ball, Arizona has proved they can limit explosive offenses, and I don't view UCLA as that. I imagine this game being played in the 30s. I may play AZ as well, tbd. 

1U Army +17.5: Air Force is the better team, but this is a service academy game and 17.5 is rich for that. Both of these defenses are familiar with the system and the clock runs in these games- that's why the unders have been so popular. However, rather than play an under 32, I'll take Army to keep it within 17 and a hook. If Army scores a touchdown, I imagine this cashes. 

1U Nebraska -3: Ruhle has this team headed in the right direction with a legitimate shot at winning the west in year one (thanks to that division being booty cheeks). Michigan state is in shambles and their defense seemingly can't stop a gust of wind lately. Sparty has a date w/ Ohio state on deck and closes the season with PSU, even with a win here, they don't have anything to play for. I imagine half the roster is checking out their portal options. Huskers win big if they take care of the ball. 

1U Kentucky -4: KY comes into this game on 3 game slide, to GA, Mizzou and TN, but have a good opportunity to get right, as I think they're the more talented team. This game is one of Kentucky's last legitimate chances to secure a bowl spot and will capitalize. 

leans: 

Arizona +3

Fresno -2.5

FSU -21.5 - hoping to catch a slightly better number. 

Some early plays

2U ND -3
2U ND/Clem Under 45

Clemson has bad vibes… Dabo throwing players under the bus, turnovers all over the place and just a general inability to win games. They outplayers the Wolfpack and lost, outplayed fsu for most of the game and lost, etc. I don’t see them having much success against the ND defense. I also don’t see ND having a ton of success against clemson on offense so really like the under on this one, I think it can be a mid-30s game. I trust ND to take care of the football, make fewer mistakes, and use their defense to win this game in Death Valley.



1U PSU -10- I’ve been burned by Maryland for the last time. Penn state in a tough spot here on the road with a thrashing from Michigan on deck (Go Blue) but Maryland has issues, obviously. I can see Penn State being slow in this one but they’ll do enough to put it away by a few scores and be

Some early plays

2U ND -3
2U ND/Clem Under 45

Clemson has bad vibes… Dabo throwing players under the bus, turnovers all over the place and just a general inability to win games. They outplayers the Wolfpack and lost, outplayed fsu for most of the game and lost, etc. I don’t see them having much success against the ND defense. I also don’t see ND having a ton of success against clemson on offense so really like the under on this one, I think it can be a mid-30s game. I trust ND to take care of the football, make fewer mistakes, and use their defense to win this game in Death Valley.



1U PSU -10- I’ve been burned by Maryland for the last time. Penn state in a tough spot here on the road with a thrashing from Michigan on deck (Go Blue) but Maryland has issues, obviously. I can see Penn State being slow in this one but they’ll do enough to put it away by a few scores and be

week: 5-4 +3 Units

Season: 39-35 +10 Units

shouldn;t have got greedy with those adds, but oh well.

@Juicedd

Adding 1U each 

UCLA -14 (-120) this offense should be a hit knife through butter. The ucla defense will shut down Colorado. Blowout incoming 

UNC -11.5: due for a bounce back. The defense does enough to slow down Ga tech and Maye has a get right game. 

LW: 2-4 -2 Units 

YTD: 34-31 +7 Units

2U Oregon -6.5: I respect the hell out of the Utes and acknowledge that it's a difficult place to play . However, I just think this is a bad matchup for Utah. Their offensive struggles have been masked the last two games by playing bad defenses whereas Oregon's defense will make things difficult for them. Utah is also coming off of a big emotional win and is a prime candidate for a hangover.

1U Maryland -14: I feel like i've been burned by MD a few times. But I like them in this spot. MD sitting at 5 wins and need this game to get bowl elgible and set them selves up for a chance to get an exciting bowl game if they get wins against Nebraska and Rutgers. Northwestern is one of the worst FBS teams, their players just want the season to end and they have little to no home field advantage in my view. Terps should go on the road and cover this one. 

1U Clemson/ NC State Under 44 I'm interested to see what Clemson fields this week after the loss against Miami and Dabo throwing his QB under the bus. From the outside, it seems that there's potential that this team checks out and a road trip doesn't help their case. Regardless of that, I like this under play with two good offenses facing two offenses that haven't quite clicked consistently. If one of these offenses were to click, I'd imagine it would be clemson as they've shown good spurts before. However, I see this more as a 21-14 or 24-14 type of game. 

1U GA/FL Under 49.5: Rivalry game where I think both teams will try to feel eachother out early. Georgia is obviosuly dealing with the loss of their biggest weapon which will allow FL to create some better matchups in general. I think the FL defensive front will be the best that GA has faced and can do enough to pressure and slow the GA attack. I don't see this game getting away from Florida like it did last year, so I'll take the under. 

1U UNLV +9: Who thought this would be such a big game at the start of the season. I think the lines a bit rich in this one. I like what Odom and staff have been able to do with this team and tomorrow night they get a chance to prove they belong. Give me UNLV to keep it within 2 scores. 

1U Louisville -6 

2U Lousiville/ Duke Under 45.5

A 2 for 1 special here. Lville let me down against pitt- I thought the team would be ready to go after the big win over ND with the belief they'd be in the CFP conversation, I was wrong. Luckily for the cards they got exactly what they needed after that, the bye week. Brohm has had two weeks to gameplan and scheme stuff up for the Duke defense. The cards are still in the hunt for the conference title and come out motivated. Both of these teams field good defenses and I imagine it's a low scoring affair. However, with Leonard getting banged up again it should help the cards defense tremendously. Even if he goes, he looked a bit unlike himself last week in his play..

Leans: 

I'll be back with rationale if i play any of them. 

S Miss +17-

UNC -12

Oregon St. -3

WVU +7 (or ML)

UCLA  -15.5

LW: 2-4 -2 Units

YTD: 34-31 +7 Units