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Quote Originally Posted by brockwell: additional food for thought on OVER The Over is 20-7-1 in Caro's last 28 versus a team with a winning record, and they have gone over the total in four straight playoff games. |
Keneke2008 | 26 |
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: Do those past super bowl games have anything to do with this particular one? You should look at these 2 teams and what they bring to the field. i.e. time of possession effective drive success rate average starting field position penalty's per game pace or tempo Then look at both teams defensive #'s. They are more important when deciding on a total than the teams offensive #'s. A good D will always fair well against a good O. Kind of like a good pitcher will always stop good hitting. One tidbit I like a lot for this game... The Broncos are only the fourth team defense since 1970 to be #1 in yards per carry allowed and #1 in yards per pass allowed And by the way those 2 games you mentioned Luke Kuechly had a pic 6 in each of em. Carson Palmer threw a bunch of 50/50 balls that turned into 4 int's. You can't give the Panther's offense COMPLETE credit for all the scoring. GL on what you choose Not trying to break down this game. Just the history of the O/U during previous Super Bowls. But if you must, here goes.... Carolina has scored 31 and 49 points in two playoffs games and is 19-6 to the over when facing a team with a winning record since the arrival of Ron Rivera, including 9-0 to the OVER the past two seasons. Even though the Panthers dominated the first half, they surrendered 403 yards and 24 points to Seattle, so they are susceptible. |
Keneke2008 | 26 |
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Two great Defenses is why the O/U is dropping.
A Pick Six or kickoff/punt return will bode well for the Over. |
Keneke2008 | 26 |
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The YES on this one pays good.
Best part is your bet has action the entire game.
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Keneke2008 | 1 |
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Quote Originally Posted by 98ITR: Line is 44 now.. that is hella low.. last time total was thing low was Packers Steelers I think Denver over 19.5 has some value Carolina -6 and O/U 44 will get you a Denver Total of 19.0 |
Keneke2008 | 26 |
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Well written. Thank you.
I have four dimes on the Over 45 and $2,800 on Carolina -4.5 Have a great Sunday |
don juan | 86 |
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Quote Originally Posted by obmarn: Can you point me to the treads where everyone is taking Car.I like to read one sided analysis of games to see the flaws in their point of view.Most treads are about Den. winning and mostly covering the spread. https://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14705931/denver-best-defense-football-facing-attack-yet-face-nfl |
ChocoTaco | 13 |
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Quote Originally Posted by EndTheFed: it's not keneke, it's the only totals bet that makes any sense to me. There are just way too many FAST playmakers on all four sides of the ball in this game. A recipe for at least 50. I realize I am in the vast minority on the total here too, something that makes me very happy. My first play was 2,500 on Carolina -4.5. But -5.5 is not an option. I agree that 50 is probable due to a pick six or whatever as you suggested. |
Keneke2008 | 26 |
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I have 4 dimes on the over 45. Looking to put more on the Over 44.5.
Can someone please tell me the Over is a bad bet? And why? Thanks |
Keneke2008 | 26 |
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Panthers had a 35-7 lead in the third quarter at New York. Something similar happened vs Seattle in the playoffs.
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Keneke2008 | 26 |
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During the playoffs:
Carolina scored 31 vs the #2 Seattle defense Carolina scored 49 vs the #5 Arizona defense During the last game of the regular season: Carolina scored 38 vs the #10 Buccaneers defense. Manning has played two full games of late. Both were in the playoffs. Denver scored 23 vs the #9 Patriots defense Denver scored 20 vs the #21 Steelers defense During the last game of the regular season: Denver scored 27 vs the #20 Chargers defense when Manning came off the bench. Carolina has the #6 defense: vs a Denver offense that ranks #19 on offense during the regular season and #8 vs 12 teams during the playoffs. Average Points Scored: Panthers Regular Season 31.3 Panthers Playoffs 40.0 Broncos Regular Season 22.2 Broncos Playoffs 21.5 Why is the O/U 45? The total has not been less than 45 since 2004. In that game the Total was 37.5. The game was New England vs Carolina in Super Bowl XXXVII The Final was Patriots 32 Carolina 29 More to the point: During the last 15 Super Bowls. The last three Super Bowls have posted O/U of 47.5, 47.5 and 48. All three have gone OVER by 28-24, 43-8 and 34-31. Average score of 55 points per game. The prior 12 Super Bowls found players cashing on all 12 Super Bowls if they took the Over or the Under based on the closing total of MORE or LESS than 46 points. The Under cashed all seven times when the closing totals were 46.5 or MORE. In order, the O/U for each game was 53, 57, 55, 47, 47 46.5, and 53. The seven final scores were 21-17, 31-17, 17-14, 29-17, 21-10, 24-21 and 20-17. Average score of 39.4 points scored per game equals 19.8 points per game LOWER than the average Closing Total of 51.2 points per game. The Over cashed all five times when the closing totals were 46.0 or LESS. In order, the O/U for each game was 45, 46, 37.5, 44 and 33. The five final scores were 31-25, 27-23, 32-29, 48-21 and 34-7. Average score of 55.4 points per game equals 14.3 points per game HIGHER than the average Closing Total of 41.1 points per game. |
Keneke2008 | 26 |
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Originally posted in the wrong section.
I am seeing SkyBook with UCLA -2 on my LinesMover screen. Anyone using Donbest or Linetracker see the same thing? |
Keneke2008 | 1 |
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Memphis +2 ???
I am seeing SkyBook with UCLA -2 on my LinesMover screen. Anyone using Donbest or Linetracker see the same thing? |
Mr_Covers | 71 |
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