KineProfessor

miss valley st +14.5 (currently at 5dimes)

Of course Wilmington deserves a look, I personally am also leaning toward Ok St and Tx St.  Also, I'm looking at Davidson and under as well. 

A few points:
1. If you miss the best line, but the line still makes it a "play" feel free to not play it as you have missed some value - if you take a worse line, except the consequences.
2. Here are the games that the system perimeters also suggest we look at as they are close: UNCW, Ark Lil Rock, Miami OH, NE, Marshall, South Alabama, Loyola Chi, Citadel, Sac St and Edwardsville and yes I am on numerous of these as well
3. Also games like Omaha (getting too many points based on their body of work) and Northern Illnois (I'm 5-1-1 betting on them since Jan 22nd) deserve your consideration as well.

I love this feedback, well done JimmyJet

Not saying it will win or that I'm on it but the point of the system is to point to teams and games and angles that we wouldn't normally look at - the system doesn't say anything about Fairfield Darren but its one of the first games I looked at on this card, if that tells you anything - I'll try to get back on later tonight with some some number and a bunch of other thoughts . . .

Hahahahaha - classic post - but feel free to continue to cash winners off this thread - can't make this stuff up!

The last five or so days this lines have opened "lighter" than I expected and then they have been bet down even more!  So funny that this thread has everyone falling over themselves to bet Citadel, Furman, Northern Illnois and the like - looking forward to seeing what happens these next couple of weeks. 

I might have to let this thread bet all my system plays way down and then go back huge the other way!  Best of luck to you all - more importantly than the system is understanding the flaws in how lines are made and how to exploit them - also works well with betting mma as well as a few other sports as well

Ryno: I contacted you with some inside information for your eyes only

System Update (for those that are interested):

1. System should start Feb 13th (some would argue Feb 20th and they would have a point) and run to the end of the season and not include conference tourney games (although you could certainly use some of the principles to narrow down cards and look more closely at games).

2. System should use a sliding scale and begin around Kenpom 140, understand that for teams ranked by Kenpom between  #140-200, lines should be DD before it qualifies as a play.  For teams #200-Southern Utah, lines of 7.5 or higher to constitute a play (of course you are still welcome to use your own brain and consider games that just miss the criteria as games that you should possibly look at more closely and consider playing).

3. Games played on Thursday (or Friday) should be weighed more heavily than Saturday (or Sunday) aka the infamous two-game in three night small conference road trips.  So what I am saying is that I am more likely to play a borderline game on a Thursday (or Friday) and more likely to layoff a borderline game on Saturday (or Sunday). 

Lastly, there are just guidelines to help you dwindle down big cards and give you are things to consider besides the normal capping BS that you read on this forum (and many other including the 140-character site, hope you see how those "cappers" are doing - ouch).  The fact is that most gamblers are still doing the same things that they were doing when the system blew up a number of years ago.  They still bet big teams that are televised (and who, of course, have the tightest lines imaginable).  They still bet favorites and they still feel completely stupid when they bet on small conference team that gets destroyed.  Listen, we still need some of these game to lose (and if they are going to lose, we want it to be a spectacular trainwreck) because those cappers would rather lose their money watching an OSU game then tracking a Samford or Appy St game online. 

Remember, keep it simple, don't overthink it, have fun and we are all in this together.  I wont be around much or answering question but if Ryno wants to keep this thread alive and track the updated system plays (and he, as well as you guys, are welcome to tweak it as well) that is fine. 

Hey Ryno, PM me when you get a chance - thanks

FYI: Kenpom 170 and a spread of 8 looks like what the official guidelines "should" be . . . but that doesn't mean that I won't be against a team in the 140-160 range when they are a big favorite and it also doesn't mean that I won't be against a team in the 240's when they are 3-5-pt favs as well. 

Of course, if you use some common sense along with the guidelines you can argue that the spread should be higher when dealing with teams in the 160-200ish and you could set the line much lower when you are dealing with 250 and higher (the Eastern Illinois v Austin Peay game from last night is the perfect example). 

Last night, #283 Eastern Illinois opened as a 5 to 5.5 favorite (ended at -7 as money came in ON EIU!) over #309 Austin Peay.  Of course, Eastern Illinois NEVER lead the entire game, trailing by as many as 19 points in the second half.  So if you discounted this game because of the opening line, you missed a very nice opportunity and easy cover.

I won't be posting system plays but the "system" as you know it officially begins tomorrow.  Good luck with whatever you set the Kenpom ranking and point spread.

Here is what I posted in my old thread last week:

I won't be making a new thread about this years system but for the few "vets" in the thread (for instance if you know what kenpom is you might be a "vet"), here is what is new this year. I've been using the system all season to narrow down games to consider betting on with awesome results (ask Kapono how I'm running if you like).   The actual system doesn't technically start till next Saturday.  The system guidelines change year to year based on the overall quality of mid-major teams (and bottom level teams from big conferences).  This influences what kenpom ranking the system should start from (ie if you think mid-major basketball quality is down this year, then the kenpom ranking should go down and you might consider the cutoff around 160 for example).  Obviously, if you think mid-major teams (and bottom tier big conference teams) are stronger this year then you would shift the kenpom ranking cutoff up, like around 200.  If your familiar with the teams from kenpom rankings 150ish-200, ask yourself which of these teams do I want to be AGAINST when they are big home favorites against "inferior" opponents.   Also, take a look at the teams around kenpom rankings 250-300 and ask yourself how big a difference do you believe exist between those teams and the teams around 150-250 in the rankings.  What this will tell you is what the "spread" cutoff should be.  The bigger the difference you believe exists between those teams, the bigger the line should be to constitute a play (let's say +9 or higher for this example).  The closer you think these teams are the smaller the line can be to make it a play.   Take the Wilmington vs Hofstra game for example.  Clearly, Wilmington sucks and at kenpom ranking 275, the will always be a candidate for the system (both play on and against depending on the opponent).  But how big of a gap do you believe exists between those two teams?  The line opened at 5dimes at 6, which makes that spread too small to technically qualify for a system play, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't still look at the game and consider it for a play.  In my opinion if you consistently lay the points in the above situations you will eventually go broke betting college hoops (that's not to say that Wilmington won't cover in this particular example but over the course of an entire system the EV doesn't justify the play). The point of this post is twofold: 1. Just use the system as a guideline for selecting game to study and consider betting (always try to back the points) and 2. Based on YOUR observations of college hoops this system, YOU can manipulate the guidelines (ie what kenpom ranking to start it at and what point spread to start it at) at which to start the system.  I might say kenpom 200 and point spreads starting at 9 or higher and you might say kenpom 160 and pt spreads of 6.5 or higher.  We won't know who is "right" until after this season ends.  This paragraph would actually make for "useful" discussion in this thread (I know that's a novel concept). *if this post doesn't make sense to you, go back and read the first posts of this thread or just face the grim reality that this system is not for you.

I won't be making a new thread about this years system but for the few "vets" in the thread (for instance if you know what kenpom is you might be a "vet"), here is what is new this year.

If you have been watching closely, the principles have been making money since Christmas week (coincides with when Kenpom's rankings have enough data to be taken seriously).  Strongest when the spread is 8 or more and the favorite is ranked 200th or worst in Kenpom.  Hopefully you are using the principles to look at games you wouldn't normally consider. 

YTD: 3-6 (-3-units)

I'll say the same thing I say when I'm hot: either I'm hot and ride it out or I'm due for a regression to the mean, you will have to decide.  In this case, I'm cold in posted plays, so either I suck and this is a regression to the mean four years in the making or I'm due to get hot soon.  Besides underestimating SMU (they are way more athletic than I expected but they have a short bench and suspect ball handling so they will be a play against again soon), I'm happy with my angles and analysis.

Hope to begin the writeups in a few weeks but if anyone wants to know what I'm playing today (to follow or fade!), I'm on IUPUI +9, here is why (briefly).

I'm a bit down on this North Texas (especially early in the season) and don't believe they should be this big of a favorite against IUPUI.  Mitchell Patton has the size to atleast slow down (hopefully) Tony Mitchell.  Hart and Rice are capable scorers and I think they match up nicely in this game.  Of course, with IUPUI its all about how they shoot from the floor but I believe if I get my money in on situations like this all season, I'll be up for the year. 

IUPUI +9 for 1-unit on 5dimes

2-unit hit last night; sitting at 3-5 down 2-units at the moment.

No time for a write-up, just getting home from UTSA hoops game and now leaving for my long drive to the SMU/Tx St hoops game.  Going to watch this SMU team with my own eyes (and hope Larry Brown "blesses" my 3-year old son and his point guard future).
I'm bit "low" on Montana and a bit "high(er)" on Idaho.  Montana's size is pretty weak and they will likely go to an ultra-small lineup to try to combat Idaho's size advantage with their beast Kyle Barone.  This is a "big" rivalry game so I expect it to be close but I think Barone is the difference.

1-unit Idaho ML (-120)

Bad day yesterday, sorry if you were involved, back to the tiny cards, all I'm on today is UT-Arlington +9.5 for 2-units, I'm out for the night but hope to be around tomorrow, good luck

FINAL CARD (my biggest one in probably two years)

NCU +2.5
Utah St +5.5
Umass -8
TCU Moneyline (-125)
Idaho St +10

Don't have too much time - but I can say this: last year St Mary's lost (straight up) to three top 100 Kenpom ranked teams on the road last year (Denver, Gonzaga, Murray St), all three teams had a few things in common: below average tempo, disciplined defense and offensive efficiency - those three characteristics are found with this Utah St team - I am very high on them this year (admittedly maybe too high), but getting 5.5 this early in the year - too good a chance to pass up in my opinion.

Card:
NCU +2.5
Utah St +5.5
Umass -8
TCU Moneyline (-125); (might be a sucker here but can't resist)

Looking: Idaho St +9ish