lakerfan4life

This week has been the most heartbreaking week for me in terms of how much misfortune I have had in losing wagers.  As a result I ended up losing a few thousand on what looked to be sure wins.  I have had winning streaks and losing streaks, but to lose in this fashion is simply unbearable and has brought me to the point where I feel I can't take these types of beats.  The bad luck mixed with all the news about scandals and point shaving, I have lost all faith and calling it quits.  Just here to vent, and incase anyone is wondering what games brought me to this point....

Bulls/Pacers game 1 - I had a few thousand on Pacers in-running ML and with 3 1/2 minutes it looked like it was in the bag.  To see a team completely run out of sync on offense after controlling the game for 45 minutes was about as disgusting a feeling as a bettor can have. 

Nuggets/Thunder game 1 - I put a few thousand on the in-running total at over 211.  At halftime it looked like a dream scenario.  I threw in a couple hundred on the under 105 2H for kicks and only needed 93 points in the 2H to hit my big bet.  For two teams of this caliber of offense to go completely cold in the second half and the last 4 minutes of the game, turnover after turnover, and neither team being able to hit a shot, and on top of it all to lose a few thousand by 1 point at the end is simply too unbearable.

These two were some of the most solid bets I have ever made and I would make both 100% of the time I had a chance to do it all over again, and to lose thousands on both in a dramatic "slap in the face" fashion is too much to handle. 

When the fun of gambling and wagering is taken out by pure heartbreaks and sheer bad luck, its time to hang it up.  Goodbye everyone

Anyone else wager on these miserable f***s tonightt??  These guys gave my wager no shot tonight.  What a bunch of scrubs!!  FU Bucks

Wow, couldn't have asked for a better matchup!  A powerful offense going up against a strong defense.  This is one of those games where both teams will have ample time to get healthy, rest, watch film, and have plenty of preparation time.  Bettors may need to rely on statistical analysis to cap this and make some  on this game.  Below is my two cents on how I see this playing out.....

VARIANCE FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON AND PLAYOFFS:

PITT: 23.8ppg offense, 15.3ppg defense = +8.5 variance

GB:  25.16ppg offense, 15.3ppg defense = +9.9 variance

PERFORMANCE IN DOME GAMES:

PITT (1 game):  10ppg offense, 20ppg defense = -10 variance

GB (4 games):  24.75ppg offense, 12.75ppg defense = +12 variance

QB EDGE: NEUTRAL.  While Aaron Rodgers IMO is clearly the better pure quarterback and passer, Roethlisberger is a great improviser and makes a lot of plays with his scrambling and the ability to shed tacklers.

RB EDGE:  STEELERS.  Mendenhall will be the best pure running back on this field.

WR EDGE:  NEUTRAL.  Both teams have a multitude of WRs capable of making big plays and get open in single coverage.  Neither team possesses a dominant shut-down corner the caliber of a Darrelle Revis that can take out the top receiving threat on the other team.

COACHING EDGE:  NEUTRAL.  While some may make a case for Tomlin having the coaching edge of having been on this stage before and having won, that matchup came against a very overachieving Arizona Cardinals team who had a great offense but had an extremely mediocre defense that happened to gel in the playoffs for a few games.  This Packers defense is HEAD ABOVE SHOULDERS better than that Cardinals defense.  This is obviously the first championship game Mike McCarthy will coach, but IMO McCarthy has already proven his worth as a head coach by keeping the Packers motivated in an injury riddled season in which they could have easily thrown in the towel.  The fact is the Packers remained motivated and gutted through the grueling season and battled so many injuries and so much adversity throughout the season to get here, and then winning three games on the road in the playoffs, the Packers will be beaming with confidence coming into the big game.  Dom Capers is also a former Steelers disciple and his experience with the Steelers should certainly play a factor in this one.

INTANGIBLES:  PACKERS.  The Packers have much more experience playing in a dome than the Steelers do, as each season the Packers play a bare minimum of two games in a dome (Lions, Vikings).  This year the Packers had four dome games counting the playoffs and their finesse and speed predicated team will have a distinct advantage over the Steelers more rugged and physical style.  I don't think the Steelers will beat up the Packers on the ground all day, as the Packers front four is pretty solid.  I can see the Packers spread out the Steelers with their WRs and utilize their speed on offense to have a major advantage over the Steelers defenders.  The Packers defense also has enough speed to neutralize the Steelers offensive weapons.  THIS WILL MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN THIS GAME.

TEAM STRENGTHS:  DEFENSE.  While many will claim that the Packers strength is their offense, its actually their defense.  The Packers had a majority of their offensive weapons in place last year and had a dominant season from an offensive perspective, but its been their defense that has made the difference this year in getting them this far.  GB/Arizona playoff game from last year is enough proof the Packers offense kept them in the game, and the defense was their achilles heel.  Even though the Packers success relies in the arm of Aaron Rodgers, defense has been the key to the Packers success this year.  The Steelers like any year are led by a dominant defense and a strong running game.  Big Ben compliments these strengths by playing mistake free football rather than putting up dominant offensive performances. 

VEGAS/ODDSMAKER PERSPECTIVE:  When setting this line, the #1 objective of the oddsmakers was to generate even action.  Making the Packers underdogs would have generated a ton of one-sided action as the Packers are considered to have a more superior offense and most square bettors tend to bet on offensive juggernauts and high profile signal callers like Aaron Rodgers.  The game being played in a dome also favors strong offenses like the Packers.  It comes as no surprise the Packers are a small favorite.  Pittsburgh has a dominant defense which is why this line is not 3 or 3.5  I don't anticipate this line will get past -3 on any sportsbook.  46 is neither a high nor a low total for a game being played in a dome, but suggests that the books are favoring the Packers to control the tempo of this game.  Most Steelers games tend to have O/U in the 37-43 point range, whereas most Packers game O/Us tend to be in the 44-48 range.

FINAL CONCLUSION:  After looking at all variables, I firmly believe that both teams will rely on what's gotten them to this stage thus far, which has been their defense.  The Packers will attempt to use their team speed and experience playing on turf in the dome as a factor against the Steelers.  The Steelers will attempt to use their running game to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field.  While I do not see the Packers running the ball with a great deal of success against the Steelers, I do see them exploiting the Steelers with their team speed, and with regularity.  In the end, I do not envision a high scoring affair, and I see the Packers having a slight edge on the Steelers playing in a dome and having a better pure quarterback.

Packers ML - 2 units

Under 46 - 2 unit

Packers and under in 7 point teaser - 2 units

My prediction for this game is somewhere around 23-17 or 24-20 GB victory.  GL everyone!!

Man, what an awesome day!! Outside of the over/under teaser, it feels great to hit everything on the sides in both games

I will be taking the underdog in this superbowl, whichever team it is.  If Pittsburgh is the underdog, I'm going LARGE on them!!

Fellow cappers.....

I rarely post on the forum these days but I often read posts of some of the respected cappers on here, and have won a good amount of money using their information and combining them with my own strategy.  I only post when I feel the information can help benefit others in making their wagers.  That said, I LOVE the Steelers and Packers to move on to the super bowl, for the following reasons:

I went 4-0 in the divisional round with my picks on the Steelers ML, Bears ATS, Packers ML, and Jets ATS.  The logic for my wagers was based on the analysis posted by other cappers, my own research, and the defensive hog index criteria.  Those that follow this in their betting, you'll find that it has a high success rate, along with several key variables.  The DHI for the 2010 NFL season was as follows: 

https://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_1135_Def._Hog_Index.html

As you can see, the Steelers, Packers, Bears, and Jets all had a significant edge in DHI over their opposition and all covered.  The DHI itself is not enough to guarantee a cover, but combined with other relevant factors, you can spot situations where a team can have a huge edge versus the opposition.  In the division round, the following applied:

1) Steelers had a DHI edge over the Ravens in all 3 categories, and were playing at home.  The Steelers edge over the Ravens in the running and passing game however was minimal, hence the Steelers did not have a major edge.  I bet the ML because the Steelers were at home and Ravens were coming off a big game against a soft KC team and now went on the road to play a rugged defense.  Neither team had a motivational edge.

2) The Packers had a DHI edge in two of the three categories against the Falcons.  It didn't end there.  The Packers had a HUGE edge in the QB position as Rodgers is one of the best pure passers in the game and Matt Ryan was very inexperienced in terms of playoffs.  The Packers defense also had a major edge over the Falcons with everyone healthy.  The only edge Atlanta had was the running game.  The scoreboard pretty much tells the tale.

3) The Bears had an edge in all 3 DHI categories against the Seahawks, were playing at home, and had a motivational edge to avenge an earlier loss.  The Seahawks were coming off an emotional high after beating the defending super bowl champs.  Combine all these variables and it had a big Bears win written all over it.

4) The Jets had a major edge in 2 DHI categories and virtually the same in the other category.  The Jets also had a motivational edge to avenge the humiliating 45-3 December loss.  The Patriots had the pressure of being the #1 seed, had not lost at home all year, and had the burden of lofty expectations.  Though the Pats had a huge edge in QB, the Jets had a major edge in the running game and the defensive line and corner backs to neutralize Brady.  Combining all these variables would make it an easy decision to take the Jets to hang within 9.5 points.

That said, I like the Packers and Steelers to advance to the super bowl for the following reasons:

AFC Championship:  The Steelers are coming off a very hard fought comeback win against their arch rival, and as poorly as they played, they willed themselves to win the 2nd half and the game.  The Steelers have an edge in all 3 DHI categories, are playing at home, have an edge at the QB position in terms of playoff experience, and have a big motivational edge to avenge a December home loss to the Jets. The Steelers can also neutralize the Jets defense and running game with their own.  The Jets will come off an emotional high after beating the Patriots, the Jets will see a noticeable difference in how difficult it'll be to run the ball on the Steelers (nobody has successfully ran the ball on Pittsburgh all year).  This will essentially force Mark Sanchez to air it out to win this game.  All signs point to a BIG win by the Steelers.

NFC Championship:  Though the Bears have a DHI edge in two of the 3 categories, the Packers are not that far behind.  The Packers have dealt with injuries and adversity all season and have finally gotten healthy and playing up to their potential.  Their confidence is also sky high knowing that their offense is very explosive and can move the ball, which they did AT WILL against the Falcons.  Green Bay has also found a spark in their running game with Starks which makes Aaron Rodgers even more dangerous.  The Packers have an enormous edge at QB and in my eyes can neutralize the Bears in terms of defense with their aggressive linebackers and corners.  Though the Bears have a slight edge in the running game, Forte is by no means a dominant RB.  The Bears defense is also susceptible to giving up big plays as evident by the late points they allowed Seattle.  After shutting down Seattle for the majority of the game, the Bears had a letdown on defense and its something they can ill-afford against the Packers.  Last but not least, in my entire betting career, I have never seen a 6th seed favored on the road in a championship game.  Vegas does not give away Christmas presents, and there is a reason the Packers are favored.  I see the Packers winning this game going away!

Neither team has an edge in coaching, as all coaches are capable enough to get their teams at this stage. 

My picks for the championship round will be as follows:

Steelers ML - to win 2.2 units
Steelers -3 - to win 1 unit
Packers ML - to win 2.25 units
Packers -3 - to win 1 unit

Steelers and Packers ML parlay - to win 2 units

Packers game over and Steelers game under - 7 point teaser to win 3 units

I anticipate the AFC championship game to be a defensive war which I believe will play into the Steelers hands.  I do not see Chicago being able to slow down Green Bay's offense.

GL everyone

Does anyone use a sportsbook that posts in-running quarter lines for ALL NBA games that are played on any given day? 

I use sportsbook.com and occasionally see 3rd and 4th quarter in-running lines for a handful of NBA games, and I'm looking for a book that consistently posts these lines for every NBA game.

If you use a sportsbook that posts such lines or know of one that does, please let me know!!

Crow....here's two cents from a guy that's turned losing wagers into pushes and guaranteed profits on numerous bets by hedging....

If you think the Yankees lose this series, do not put a dime on the Yankees.  If you truly believe the Yankees can win this game and possibly game 7, may want to hedge as follows:

Say you were looking to put 2 units on the Yankees to win the series....... put 1 unit on the Yankees ML tonight and 1 unit on the Yankees series price.  If Yanks pull this game out, you're pretty much in a break even situation going into game 7 at +300.  I doubt Lee will be favored anything higher than -170, and possibly lower if the Yanks shell the Rangers tonight.  If you're able to get a game 7, put down half of the profits from game 6 on Texas to score the first run in tomorrow's game.  If they do, you'll be up from your game 6 profit + the winning prop, and still have the option of hedging the +300 Yankee bet.  If Yanks score first, you would be up a half unit as you'd lose your prop bet, but your team at +300 odds will be leading in the game and it will open up a world of hedging opportunity on Texas in-game running line.  BOL

I'm still in shock that I'm about to lose 200+ thanks to that fat f* not tagging the 3rd base and that retard missing a routine ground out double play ball !!  Damn you SF!

F* the Giants!  I hope they lose this game AND series!

This is one UGLY MF*N game!!!  Unbelievable!   My SF play looks like dogshit now thanks to these punks being unable to make routine plays!!

Bryce, great call on Nevada!!

Are you playing anything on college football today?

haha thanks!!  BOL tomorrow brother

Bryce, thanks for the info!  Going by your system, wouldn't the Chargers/Chiefs game under fall into the system?

Wildcats 08, tease the Texans and over using 6.5 points and you'll be smiling all the way to the ticket window.  Your odds of Texans hanging within 8 at home and the total going over 41.5 are very likely.  BOL 

Votto

Reds backers, we have hope.  Lets keep our fingers crossed...

Reds backers, we have hope.  Lets keep our fingers crossed...

The Pirates are atrocious.  This team needs miracles to win games, and the 33% winning percentage indicates that betting against them has profit potential written all over it.  I like their chances of losing 2 out of the next three games, starting with the next one.  This one still isn't over but if they hang on, betting against them would be a great bet tomorrow.

Bryce, welcome to Covers!  Hope you're able to look past the haters and narrow minded posters who bash threads and don't respect other cappers.  Please continue to share your input and logical analysis with the rest of us, we certainly appreciate your time and effort.  All the best to you and may all of us do what we're here for, beating the sportsbooks! 

Bryce, welcome to Covers!  Hope you're able to look past the haters and narrow minded posters who bash threads and don't respect other cappers.  Please continue to share your input and logical analysis with the rest of us, we certainly appreciate your time and effort.  All the best to you and may all of us do what we're here for, beating the books!