lawstyle

if he means me... i'm 10-4 on posts...

prospects of Indy +9.5 hitting?

is indy always this bad?  i never see them on TV so i had no idea

All-Time Posted NBA ATS: 10-4-0

It's been awhile since I've posted a pick but I've been doing pretty well lately so I thought I'd share tonight's play.

Indiana +9 is the pick.  Here's why:

First off, let's take a look at the game from a Vegas perspective.  The public is on Orlando, about 60/40 according to Wagerline and 86/14 according to Logans.  The line, depending on the book, has dropped about a point from it's opening at 10, meaning that, as more and more people side with the Magic, Vegas is encouraging even more action on the Magic, or, in simpler terms, there is considerable reverse line movement.  Orlando's ATS dominance this season has earned them a very strong public perception.  After their win against the Lakers on the road a week ago, they were overvalued against Boston as 5 point favorites, and Boston ended up covering by 15.  Still, bettors have grown to appreciate the Magic's otherwise steady ATS behavior, and odds-makers have caught on, blowing up tonight's spread against a formidable Indiana squad.  As the public is putting more and more money on Orlando, Vegas is licking their chops.

Vegas' intentions aside, 9 points is simply too much for the Magic to be giving the Pacers at this point in their season.  The Magic were smoking hot but came back to earth with two consecutive losses, one at home and one to the Heat.  Anyone remember what happened after Boston's marathon winning streak was snapped on Christmas day by the Lakeshow?  Boston was crippled for weeks.  Now the Magic are in the same situation, only they don't have the veteran leadership and experience the Celtics have. 

Throughout this forum I see Magic backers claiming "that the Magic are ready to bounce back after a tough loss to Miami on the road."  Is that really the best reason there is to take the Magic?  Because they "need" a bounce back game?  Look, the Magic aren't the Celtics or the Lakers.  They can't destroy teams on command.  Sure, they went on a hot streak, but a 10 point loss at home and a loss to Miami make one thing clear: they aren't all they're hyped up to be.

The Pacers go into this game having lost their last 5 away games, and that may be contributing to the public love for Orlando.  Only in one of those games, however, did they lose by more than 7, and that was to the Spurs when they had their poorest shooting percentage of the season.  Their other games have come down to the wire (See:  CP3 buzzer beater on 1/19).  They've beaten Houston, Detroit, and Toronto in their last 6 games overall, demonstrating that they are at least capable of winning, and have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10.  The Pacers' best player is Danny Granger, a player who won't be affected by Dwight Howard's inside defensive presence because of his ability to hit the mid/long-range jumpers.

Take the 9 points.  That's a lot of points for a team on a two game losing steak to give to a somewhat steady team that knows how to Cover.

Good luck

i didn't bet on this one, but the calls against syracuse were suspect.  still, syracuse looked terrible.  couldn't rebound or take a quality shot down the stretch

Utah -8.5

0-0 Record

Flacco won't put up more than 10 points against a good defense like the Cowboys on the road.  Romo should be able to squeeze out a couple TDs since his offense will be on the field all game.  Barber's absence won't hurt--Tashard Choice looks like a pro-bowler (over 100 total yards against PITT, and over 100 against Giants...).  Vegas wants you to take Baltimore (line movement up the ass).

Dallas -4.5

A few things about this game, before you take Baltimore too big...

How is Baltimore going to score?  Have you seen Flacco play against good defenses?  He's awful.  And he's on the road...  How in the world is Baltimore going to score points?

Dallas will have trouble scoring as well, no doubt.  But through 4 quarters, they should be able to squeeze out enough points (maybe 14 or so) to cover the spread.  Baltimore will be going 3-and-out over and over, and Dallas will have plenty of chances to drive down the field.  Don't forget how potent this team's offense can be. 

Last week Dallas owned the Giants.  The week before, they had 6 turnovers against the Steelers on the road and still almost won the game....

It's also important to note that Vegas is begging for people to take Baltimore by moving the line this much.  5 points is A LOT to give to a defense as good as Baltimore, a team fighting for a playoff berth, because they want you to take Baltimore.  Don't fall into the trap.

Best of Luck

The point is, "needing to win" doesn't guarantee anything.  The Jags will play their hearts out.  The raiders will play their best, as will the Cards.  Teams don't just tank in the NFL, because if a player or a coach takes a play off, he'll lose his job.  Have you ever seen a player drop a ball because his team had no reason to win?  Have you ever seen a defensive end not go after the QB because his team had no reason to win?  There's more to gambling then just observing which team wants it more.  Trust me, Detroit wants to win this week very very badly, more than the Saints, but they most likely will not.

Actually the line is DROPPING as we speak, just dropped a half point on several books to -6, which is pretty much the spread across the board now.  Bassin is correct to point out some heavy reverse line movement here, considering the amount of money on Indy.

So the logic is, "they have to win, so they will"?  That doesn't work.  If everyone team who "had to win" won, what would happen in the playoffs?

Jets -7
San Fran +6.5
Ravens -2
Giants +3

All winners

I haven't committed to either side yet, but reading through this forum I see a lot of support for the Bears.  Let make a few points:

What about the fact that the Saints' offense is far and away better than the Bears'?  Brees finally has all his weapons back, and we've seen how good he is when his team is healthy.

Being used to "playing in the cold" doesn't make as big a difference as everyone thinks.  I can think of numerous examples...  the time Mike Vick came into Lambeau and beat Brett Favre in the freezing cold in the playoffs about 5 years ago... last year, Jaguars go to Pittsburgh for their playoff game and cover despite freezing temperatures and everybody predicting that the Jags couldn't play in the cold.  The cold doesn't necessarily win games for whoever's from the colder city.

The Bears offense really, really stinks, and their win over the Jags was not that impressive if you watched the game... the Jags are pretty awful. 

Defense, however, is on the Bears side, and we all know that wins games... but is it that good?  and can the Bears offense really crush the Saints D?

Stop thinking so much about the weather and look at the teams.  The Saints are a very solid team, and the Bears are shaky.  The Saints are GETTING three points.

Just a few points...

shit happens....

Heat shot 40%, and 30% from 3-pt land, while the Nets shot 47% and 50% from 3-point land, yet it's a tie game.  Miami can do this if they hit some shots in the second half...

Was Marion listed as injured?  Did I just completely miss that?

Yup, only 13 picks...  I started really late in the season, and only made a pick every few days.

ATS All-Time: 10-3-0

My 2008-2009 NBA season betting debut is tonight.  I've made a few small, personal bets that were primarily meant to get me re-acclimated to the new season, but tonight will be my first post because I think I've got a winner.  Let's hope I can rekindle last year's magic...

The pick tonight is Miami -9. 

This spread jumped out at me because, well, it's 9 points in favor of the Heat -- a team that bottomed out last season, and, despite early signs of a more confident team, still remains one of the public's least favorite teams to back.  I think Vegas understands that it's going to take a few more weeks for bettors to pay Miami the respect they deserve (which isn't a lot, but it's definitely more than last season).  Thus, 9 points is HUGE.  This is a team that was getting 20+ points at home last season, and it's not like the team's been reworked so much since that point, at least not to the tune of... -9!

You're probably wondering why I would actually take them at -9 if I think that's such a big number for an average team.  Well, I think Vegas doesn't want the public on the Heat tonight so they threw out a number big enough to get a 50/50 consensus split.  It's an attempt by Vegas to save their asses from getting burned as the public begins to realize that the 2008 Nets, on the road, without Devin Harris, is an automatic fade, no matter the team.  Vegas thinks that a 9 point spread will scare bettors away from taking the Heat, even though this game has blowout written all over it.  Not to mention that the line has moved in favor of the Heat, despite 50/50 action, in an attempt to bait Nets-takers.

Vegas aside, the Heat dominate the match-up.   On the road, they haven't been that impressive (1-3 SU, though a win against the Spurs is nothing to scoff at),  but at home, they have both won and covered in their first 2 games, beating a potent Philadelphia team handily, and a Kings squad that's turned out to be not-so-bad as of late.  But my pick is not so much an endorsement of the Heat as it is a damning of the Nets.  Let's face it, the Nets are pretty awful on the road, even with Devin Harris.  Without him, they are last year's Heat.  In their 18 point loss to the Pacers a couple of nights ago, the Pacers missed 22 three-pointers.  Yup, 22.  The Pacers did not shoot well, yet won handily.  The Nets are shooting just 40% from FG range and 30% from beyond the arc, against teams like the Suns, and the Warriors, not exactly defensive powerhouses, in their last 5 games (at home!).  The Heat are shooting 45/35, respectively, against better defensive teams, in their last 5.  With Harris out of the game both this year and last, the Nets have failed to score points.  Vince Carter is simply not built to carry a team, especially if he struggles at all early on. 

To sum it up:  The Heat, based on early indicators, are a solid team at home this year.  They are shooting significantly better than the Nets right now, and the Nets are without their spark.  And finally, Vegas wants you to take the Nets.

Good luck, let's get the ball rolling.

I'm on Philly as well... it's a winner