MaidenFocus

Jared Jones over 5.5 strikeouts, +100 (FanDuel)

Pirates starter Jared Jones makes his return after striking out 10 batters over 5.0 scoreless innings in his final rehab start. The Cubs rank 13th in team strikeouts.

Jack Flaherty to record a Win, -110 (DraftKings)

Dodgers starter Jack Flaherty has recorded the Win in 10 of his last 14 starts, including 3-of-4 with the Dodgers. Tonight he faces Orioles lefty Cole Irvin (4.82 ERA, 1.41 WHIP), and note the Dodgers are 29-13 vs. lefthanders.

I lean Phillies today, but I agree the line is way too high. The Astros are 16-8 in Ronel Blanco starts, and Blanco has a 2.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP on the road.

Astros F5 +0.5, +118 (FanDuel)

Cleveland Guardians +110

Jhonkensy Noel 2+ Total Bases, +170

The Guardians are 27-10 vs. leftys, and 40-21 at home. Jhonkensy Noel (batting 6th today) is 1-for-1 with a homer vs. Cole Ragans, homered yesterday, hits .300 and slugs .875 vs. leftys overall (1.224 OPS)

Honorable mention SETNA THE WISE wins the race @ 6/1 odds. Top pick MCGOLDEN showed early speed and was sitting in perfect stalking position until the stretch, but faded. Would've been a huge exacta if he had at least hung on for second.

Sorry for the typo, my Win percentage is currently 21% (not 221%, lol)

0-for-1 on Fat Tuesday, with SURELY going off at +1380 odds and finishing second by a half-length after blowing the first turn. She paid $13.20 to place (+560), and $9.80 to show (+390). The exacta returned 57/1 odds, with a logical 7/2 shot comprising the other half. Hard not to like that, but a tough beat just the same. We are now 12-for-19 in the exacta this year, picking almost exclusively first-time starters, many at big odds.

Fair Grounds - Race 8

#6 MCGOLDEN (8/1 ml) (top pick)

Very interesting Goldencents colt here for the good first-out trainer Brendan Walsh, as he worked with VERSTAPPEN on Dec 22, who came out of that drill to win going 1 1/8 miles (as a 2yo) four days later on Dec 26 (with today’s rider Brian Hernandez in the irons). Next up, MCGOLDEN worked with NEW YEAR’S EVE, an unbeaten 2-for-2 filly who came out of that drill to win an allowance race here on Jan 29. No real issues since, and I suspect MCGOLDEN is very live in this spot at the big price.

#2 SNOWSCAPE (6/1 ml)

Frosted firster for the excellent debut trainer Cherie DeVaux, her first local drill came with BOUT TIME, who came out of that drill to win by 5 lengths at Fair Grounds on Jan 28 (notably with Brian Hernandez in the irons, who appears on our top pick). That’s probably a very good sign. Also note that DeVaux is hitting with first-time starters at a very respectable 16% over a large sample, while she also shows a giant falt-bet profit with today’s rider Deshawn Parker in the irons (3-for-6 over the past year, and 2-for-4 at this meet. Seems live, and should definitely be considered in exotics at this price.

#8 SETNA THE WISE (8/1 ml)

This grey Cairo Prince firster for Jason Barkley brought $335k at the April OBS last year (22 x the sire’s stud fee) after breezing a furlong in 10.1 (one tick off the day’s best). More recently, he seems to have outworked older 4yo barnmate QUICK MUNNY on Jan 7, who came out of that drill to run third in a maiden race here on Jan 28 (and led the race for the opening half mile). Also of note, this one’s older brother ATLANTIC ROAD won second time out for Todd Pletcher last year. The relevent trainer stats here are not good, but definitely some things to like at the price.

2022 stats:

Win record: 4-for-19 (221%)

Total win mutuels: $20.00 ($5.00 avg)

Our top selection is now 12-for-19 in the exacta, with several very large payouts (including some recommended exacta partners filling out the other half).

Top pick is now 11-for-18 in the exacta, fwiw.

...and that's why you shouldn't bet odds-on favorites in horse racing. ULTIMA COPA gets bet down to 3/5 odds and runs well, but finishes second as she simply spotted the 30/1 longshot SENSITIVITY too easy of an early lead. Honorable mention THEREARENORULES finished fourth. 

1-for-1 yesterday, with STAYED IN FOR HALF winning gate-to-wire at +180 odds. Our second choice PLAUSIBLE DENILE ran second, completing a nice exacta at +830 odds!

Gulfstream - Race 4

#7 ULTIMA COPA (8/5 ml)

First off I must note, I don’t ordinarily post horse selections with such a short morning line, but I’m making an exception here because (a) I don’t know what the final odds will be, and I’d be happy with 8/5 at post-time, and (b) I think she looks a lot more obvious on video than on paper, and thus might offer some value. Second-time starter for the HOF horseman Christophe Clement (who excels with turf maidens, fwiw) was reasonablly well-supported at +470 odds in debut before running a good third, but that doesn’t really do her justice. She hopped at the break to be off slowly, then found herself buried in traffic with little place to go up the backstretch, then got hung very wide turning for home and lost even more ground that way. Ended up beaten a couple/few lengths, but appeared best in my opinion. What’s more, her race was flattered when the winner MY PHILLY TWIRL returned to win an allowance race on Feb. 16 over this same course. During the interim, ULTIMA COPA has returned tro work with the same unraced filly (SPURT, watch for that one) that she had worked with in her final pre-race drill last time. All systems go here.

One interesting longshot exacta possibility is #10 THEREARENORULES (8/1 ml). First-time starter for Thomas Proctor worked a couple of times in Januray with MANDY GREEN, who came of of those drills to win an MCL35 at Gulfstream (at 8/1 odds) on Jan. 23. In fact, MANDY GREEN was claimed out of that debut race (always a good sign), so it would seem she was well-regarded despite the longshot price. Following those drills, THEREARENORULES worked with GATHER AS YOU GO, an older 4yo barnmate who came out of that drill to win by 3 lengths at Tampa Bay Downs (at 14/1 odds) on Feb. 12. Tough spot here for an unraced horse debuting around two turns from a wide post from a barn that doesn’t win with firsters very often (and has no real record with rider Julian Leparoux), but there are definitely some things to like, and he would definitely provide some juice in the exacta pool if he can finish second.

Stone-cold exacta at +830 odds!

DEVIOUS went off at 20/1 odds, went straight to the front and led until midstretch. Had nothing after that. Good pass, as it turns out.

Not endorsing this one, but noteworthy: Race 1 entrant DEVIOUS (10/1 ml) worked heads-up from gate on Jan 11 with WOOHOO JACKIE BLUE, who later won an MCL30 by 4 lengths on Feb 13 (same rider Ramon Vazquez aboard)

Oaklawn - Race 10

#8 STAYED IN FOR HALF (3/1 ml)

Second-time starter for Asmussen showed speed and was highly competitive (second by a half-length at the wire) in what has turned into a very nice-looking race, with winner ZOZOS returning to win by 10 lengths in an Oaklawn allowance race here a couple of weeks ago. Also note that third-place finisher STRONG QUALITY returned to win at Fair Grounds last weekend in a solid effort (outfinishing our 12/1 shot SCOTLAND YARD). Asmussen generally excels with second-time starters (22% winners over a large sample), and note that top rider Tyler Gaffalione has taken over the mount here (Gaff is hitting 26% with Asmussen for a big flat-bet profit). It would be foolish to expect anything but another strong effort here.

The other horse that kinda caught my eye in this race is #11 PLAUSIBLE DENILE (5/1 ml), who tied for the fastest furlong (9.4) at the the March OBS last year. Not much to see in the worktab, as he’s worked at least 5 different times with the unraced AMERICAN MAYHEM, but note that trainer James DeVito hits with a very respectable 17% of his first-time starters (for a large flat-bet profit), and based on his under-tack performance last year, he seems almost certain to show some speed.

Fair Grounds - Race 2

#4 ROYAL FLOWER (9/2 ml)

This first time starter for Asmussen (who brought $1.2 million at the Keeneland yearling sale) is actually a half-brother to Asmussen' s multiple graded stakes winner YAUPON, who is 6-for-8 lifetime and most recently won the G1 Forego Stakes at Saratoga last summer. ROYAL FLOWER also comes into this race with an interesting worktab, having worked in December with AMERICAN XPERIMENT, an impressive 5-length winner at Saratoga last year who came out of that drill with ROYAL FLOWER to finish a close second (beaten less than a length) in an allowance race at Oaklawn last month (with today's rider Joel Rosario aboard). ROYAL FLOWER also appears to have worked with BOMBDIGGITY on Feb 6, who came out of that recent drill to win by 6 lengths here yesterday. Expecting a good run. 

Fair Grounds - Race 4

#9 MARSALIS (7/2 ml)

Another Asmussen firster here, this one is half brother to PAULINE'S PEARL, a multiple graded  stakes winner for Asmussen who most recently won the Houston Ladies Classic at SHRP on Jan 30. The first thing that caught my eye here was that MARSALIS may have worked on New Year's Eve with unraced SCOTLAND YARD (more on him in a second), who appeared to have outworked Race 2 pick ROYAL FLOWER from the gate on Jan 9. Next up, MARSALIS went with ST ANDREWS, who had most recent won gate-to-wire at Fair Grounds on Dec 26. Following that, MARSALIS went with FEROCIOUSLY, who exited that drill to win at Fair Grounds on Jan 22 (with today's rider Rosario abaord). MARSALIS may also have gone with the BOMBDIGGITY/ROYAL FLOWER combo on Feb 6. Looks live here.

Fair Grounds - Race 6

#6 SCOTLAND YARD (5/1 ml)

More Asmussen firsters here. SCOTLAND YARD appears to have worked with Race 4 pick MARSALIS on Dec 31, then appeared to outwork Race 2 pick ROYAL FLOWER from the gate on Jan 9 (one click faster of the pair). He later worked with GUNTOWN (who has run in 3 stakes races in a row, and is entered in Race 8 today as a first-time gelding), before apparently working with one or both of the afore-mentioned STELLAR TAP and/or CHARCO on Feb. 7 (CHARCO came out of that drill to win an allowance race  by 5 lengths here on Thursday). Lastly, SCOTLAND YARD appears to have worked with Risen Star entrant EPICENTER in his most recent drill. Appears very much well-meant, although Rosario turns up on KING OTTOMAN. Both seem live; tough call between the two (note that SCOTLAND YARD is listed first, meaning he's the top pick/official pick).

#9 KING OTTOMAN (5/1 ml) 

The other half of the uncoupled Asmussen entry (and the one with go-to rider Rosario aboard), KING OTTOMAN worked at least a couple of times with STELLAR TAP last summer prior to that one's impressive 5-length maiden win at Saratoga. He basically went missing after that (some kind of phsyical issue, no doubt), but appeared to outwork unraced barmate PENNER ASH (IRE) from the gate on Feb 6, then worked with the two-turn stakes winner RED RUN in his most recent drill on Feb 13 (RED RUN won the Bob Bork Texas Turf Mile at SHRP on 1/30, with today's rider Rosario aboard). 

DEVILLY finished second at 7/2 odds. The two longshots were never involved, sorry.

Finishing up my handicap of Race 4, the 15/1 longshot HARD ROCK WARRIOR also appears live in that same race. Her work on Dec. 26 came in company with CASCADE PARK, who had just run second at Gulfstream on Dec. 10, and I thought HRW looked pretty good in that drill (nice looker overall). Next up (and also a few weeks later) she worked twice with TWELVEO'CLOCKROCK, who emerged from that drill to finish second at Gulfstream on Jan 12 (winner was on odds-on favorite). Following that, she worked with MAYA PRINCE, who came out of that drill to run second at 18/1 odds. Lastly, trainer Trombetta is good with firsters just in a general way. Guessing this one runs well. Re: the competition, I would use HARD ROCK WARRIOR and GAM GAM JOANN in exactas with each other, as well as the two favorites R GIRL'S WORTH IT and DEVILLY. I suspect the exacta will be comprised by two of those 4 horses.

Came across some interesting stuff on a 20/1 first time starter at Gulfstream today (GAM GAM JOANN in Race 4). Rather obscure trainer Jennifer Young sends this one out w/Chantal Sutherland aboard, and it's worth noting Chantal rode a winning gate-to-wire first time starter for this barn last year (7/1 odds). She also has several workout videos showing on XBTV (not something you'd expect to see with an unraced 20/1 shot from a tiny barn). In watching those videos, I came away a little torn. GAM GAM JOANN did not really impress, but it did appear that Chantal was on board for several workouts (female rider, may or may not have been Chantal, probably was), and her final 3-horse team drill was definitely meant to simulate race conditions (and other two horses were definitely being asked more). GAM GAM JOANN was also quickest from the gate among those three, which def comes into play in this short 5-furlong event. Can't endorse, but certainly wouldn't dismiss.