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I dont like laying 2-1 no matter what. Rafa can hurt his foot again after 1 set and you lose your bet at minus 2-1 odds. I bet Rafa to win wimby at +140 and I also took Tsonga to beat Djoko at +185. We'll see...... GL
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melroselarry | 12 |
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He'll beat Murray, or Murray will lose (however you want to look at it) and I don't see Tsonga beating Rafa in a grand slam final. If Djoko happens to make it you can probably just hedge out at that point. I would say Nadal would be -175 vs. Djoko....
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melroselarry | 12 |
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Rafa will win 3-0 again imo. They will be three tight sets but I don't see Murray winning any of them.
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Mack05 | 28 |
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Quote Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen:
One thing I do know is that these victories mean a hell of alot to Joker as for NADAL those finals win or lose meant absolutely nothing.. For all you know he was trying out different shit in order to understand Jokers game better... Guys like Fed and Nadal, who are probably the two best players ever, dont care about any of these bullshit tournaments... IF the ATP didnt make them Nadal and Fed would only play 6-7 tournaments a year
On the contrary Nadal is on record saying he wants Agassi's masters title record (which I think he broke or tied recently) and believe me you never want to lose a final to a rival especially in a masters tourney and he lost 4X in row to Djoko. Tennis is a big head to head sport. It's those "bullshit" tournament wins that will have Djoko laying 150 at least to Nadal in the final assuming they both make it. One thing I will say is that I'll be surprised and blown away by Djoko if he wins the French, that would really be something. Shit maybe even I'll go gluten-free after that! |
melroselarry | 14 |
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That was the bet boys..... now +145. He'll demolish Murray and obviously I'm hoping Fed upsets Djoko... which he can.
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melroselarry | 14 |
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Line has soared from 120 to now 135 on Kennedy. He's pitching very well but has an ERA over 4 at home. Anibal Sanchez usually has had two really bad games at Chase field over last two seasons and right now Arizona is hitting the crap out of the ball. Sanchez will probably get lit up tonight..... but what about Kennedy? He probably gives up 4-ish maybe even 5. Number is 8.5 - I'm taking the over.
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melroselarry | 1 |
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Quote Originally Posted by IKnowMore:
Sanchez is coming off a complete game on the road against SF. Hardly a game I would call "easy $$$" San Fran cant hit a beach ball right now and Chase field has been a house of horrors for Sanchez in the past. Sanchez is running into a buzzsaw tonight, Kennedy isn't, that's the point of the post. Zona is EN FUEGO and O'l Anibal ain't stoppin 'em. |
melroselarry | 27 |
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Quote Originally Posted by n3gative:
He's struggling with his confidence right now Larry, if he plays passively with no shot depth like he did against Ljubicic in the first set Soderling will surely bludgeon him to death with deep, heavy shots. There's room for optimism though as Nadal found the range for the end of the second and all of the third set. Definitely has to improve the serve, but the important part is he's winning while playing well below his standards. Soderling's not even playing that well and is possibly getting too much respect for a best of 5 match? Everyone's expecting Nadal to lose which is a dangerous mentality and Robin doesn't exactly handle expectations too well. He had absolutely nothing to lose in 2009 when he had the monumental upset but when they met again in the final last year and boasted to being a threat he surrendered meekly. I also think Federer can sneak past Djokovic for whatever reason, just a gut feeling on that one. I'm with ya on everything you said bro. |
melroselarry | 14 |
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Quote Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen:
Cryptic comments coming into the Soderling match for Nadal... Nadal in seven years has Never played possum, with the media, with the public, with his opponents... Never.... He is a straight forward guy, who believes in class and sportsmanship.... His goal is to win wimbledon, not the French... He has adjusted his game to perform better in events other than the French, you have to grind it out on clay and he said himself:
- "I‘m not playing well enough to win this tournament,
- If I win [Against Soderling], it will be very important. It means I'm playing well - if not, then I'm on grass the next day practising."
Shows me that even in Paris his focus is Wimbledon...
Yes but imo you also need to consider that Nadal has never had someone standing in his way before like Djoko is now. He's never had a player beat him 4X in a row in finals, on both hard and clay.... Maybe its time for a little mind games for the first time... |
melroselarry | 14 |
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Quote Originally Posted by The_True:
There are a bunch of factors that make me want to take the marlins actually...i think the books are smart to offer a home team with that many wins at -125 and not -175...itll make everyone hop on board a train that goes off a cliff...who knows..cant tail em forever; sanchez is the better pitcher. I disagree. I think Kennedy and Sanchez are on the same level, if anything edge to Kennedy. |
melroselarry | 27 |
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Yeah I have to think this line will climb....
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melroselarry | 27 |
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This is getting a little crazy now, c'mon. I know his recent comments. Is he playing possum? Maybe, maybe not. Regardless this guy always ups his game at this stage of any tournament in particular this one. His odds have gone from even money to 250 in this past week. That's a little crazy. 40 point jump yesterday alone. That means they are worried about this Soderling match. I don't know, I suppose Soderling has a shot with these new balls and with how Nadal played against Isner but Sods isn't quite the server Isner is and Nadal has seen plenty of Sods. If Rafa comes out an gives Soderling a beat down those +250 odds will tank I would think. And Djoko better be careful of Fed as Fed will now only give his all in majors. Federer is very tough to beat 3 out of 5 for anyone including Djoko. I don't know, I realize Djoko is the MAN right now but +250 for Rafa at Roland Garros seems like incredible value.... |
melroselarry | 14 |
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I'd be careful with that. Can't lay wood in tennis. Only one set played now for action. If Fed pulls something in second set and Monfils is given the victory you will throw yourself off a bridge. It happens. Its happened to me. I've learned. I haven't layed over 150 on a tennis match in 6 or 7 years now.... If there is one sport where there are no gimmes it is this one my friend. GL
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Kid_Rio | 25 |
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Arizona's Ian Kennedy is 5-0 with a 1.87 ERA in his last eight starts and is seeking his fourth win in as many outings. The Marlins' Anibal Sanchez is 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his last seven games so that's why we get a fair price on Kennedy and the D-backs tonight. The problem for Sanchez is that he, not Kennedy, has to contend with baseball’s hottest team. The Diamondbacks (30-24) have a chance to win eight straight for the first time since April 4-12, 2008, have won 15 of 17, and are coming off one of the best offensive performances in franchise history. Arizona had 19 hits - one shy of the club record - in Monday’s series-opening 15-4 drubbing of Florida. Ian Kennedy won his only start against Florida last July 10, allowing two runs and five hits over 5 1-3 innings. He gave up one run and scattered seven hits over eight innings in Wednesday’s 2-1 victory at Colorado. Marlins starter Anibal Sanchez has a poor recent track record versus the Diamondbacks, going 0-1 in two starts over the last three seasons - both at Chase Field - while allowing 10 runs and 17 hits over 10 1-3 innings. Florida will try to avoid losing 3 in a row for the second time this year, and they'll have to do it without All-star Hanley Ramirez who will be sitting this one out. Arizona is the play here. |
melroselarry | 27 |
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So far 90%+ of public on Cincy....
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melroselarry | 6 |
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The preview below came off a free site not a pay site so no worries no violations here! I agree with what they're saying though so I'm on the Cubs at that price GL Today only one game stood out as moderate value and it's just as much a play against Cincy as it is on the Cubs. We say that because Cincy is just coming off a very emotional series with the Cards and we would look for them to bounce tonight. Those chances are amplified when you consider how much trouble they've had with Carlos Zambrano. Zambrano has posted a 2.43 ERA in winning his last 10 road games, and has a 0.75 ERA in winning his last five starts at Great American Ball Park. The right-hander is also 7-1 with a 1.56 ERA in his last eight starts against the Reds. The Reds will counter with Homer Bailey. Bailey hasn’t had much luck against the Cubs going 1-2 with a 7.65 ERA in four starts, allowing 29 hits and 13 walks in 20 innings. So at +135, the Cubs are the play. The Cubs went 3-5 on their just-completed homestand, leaving 45 men on base while going 7-for-43 with runners in scoring position in those defeats. We'll look for th Cubs to convert some of those men on base to runs tonight against Bailey and let's hope for a lackluster effort from Cincy after yesterday's big win over the Cards. We'll take the Cubs tonight for 1.10 units at +135. |
melroselarry | 6 |
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I know what happened today, I watched it and I had a small play on Djoko. Let's all remember two things though before the French. 1) The red clay of Roland Garros is the slowest of all, it will not play like Rome or Madrid. 2) Its a MAJOR. That's 3 out of 5 sets needed to beat El Toro on that stuff. Very, Very hard. The only guy capable at this point is Djoko, but I just have a weird feeling Djoko will get beat before the final. I find it hard to believe that Nadal won't make the final of the French, and if he does do you think he'll only be laying -110? He'll be laying 250 + unless its Djoko he's facing, but even then I bet he's laying 150 or better so to me, the -110 price I see now is a bargain. GL |
melroselarry | 7 |
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gonna play a parlay with those two as well. Nice payout if it hits...
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melroselarry | 3 |
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We get a nice line on Milwaukee tonight due to the fact that Gallardo hasn't been pitching well in his last few starts as well as the fact that the Brewers are coming off their worst offensive game of the year, managing a season-low three hits in Sunday’s 5-0 loss to Houston. Milwaukee took three of four from Atlanta at Miller Park from April 4-7, as the Brewers limited the Braves to eight runs, a .200 batting average and five extra-base hits. Milwaukee’s mastery of Atlanta’s lineup was highlighted by Gallardo’s gem in the second game. Gallardo threw a two-hitter in a 1-0 win April 5, improving to 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA in five career starts against Atlanta. Since shutting down the Braves, however, Gallardo has posted an 8.86 ERA in his last four starts, allowing 35 hits and eight walks over 21 1-3 innings. We'll look for him to get back on track tonight and out-duel Jurrjens. I'll take Milwaukee for 5 units out of 10 at +130. The second game I like is for Boston to continue their dominance of the L.A. Angels. A win tonight would make Jered Weaver the first pitcher in at least 93 years to win his first seven starts in a season twice in a career - a feat he first accomplished as a rookie in 2006. Weaver has been especially sharp in his last two outings, throwing back-to-back complete games - including a seven-hitter with 10 strikeouts in a 5-0 win over Oakland last Monday. So why is he an underdog tonight? For starters, he's coming off a stomach virus that caused him to lose 9 pounds in the last few days. In addition, Weaver's ERA is 7.76 in five starts at Fenway, including one of his worst outings of 2010 on Aug. 17, when he allowed six runs in five innings of a 6-0 defeat. Weaver will be opposed by Clay Buchholz who is still trying to get it together. He also had his start moved back because of illness though his was not nearly as serious as Weaver's. The fact of the matter is that Boston owns the Angels and if they are basically even money at home vs. them we have to take Boston. Even in April, Boston didn’t have a problem with the Angels. Since getting swept in the 2009 AL division series, the Red Sox are 13-1 against Los Angeles. I'll take Boston tonight at -105 for 4 units out of 10. |
melroselarry | 3 |
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Billingsley won his last two starts against the Cubs, allowing six earned runs in 12 1-3 innings. He's 3-3 with a 3.79 ERA in eight appearances vs Cubs....
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melroselarry | 8 |
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