Mikado

The ref assignments for tonight are very interesting.

Malloy, Mauer and Goble are very whistle happy refs - they have a huge offensive foul emphasis and constantly clocking the paint for anybody that stands in too long. They don't give away ticky tack fouls in the paint so you gotta work hard to get the refs to see obvious contact. Typically they let players scrap in the paint and fight for a loose ball instead of calling a quick foul. While fts are somewhat hard to come by with these guys, they do a good job of calling a game consistently. IMO, these are decent officials and it should set up for a slower paced game with lots of off-ball foul focus.

The next game is almost opposite officiating wise. Grizz have benefited from two ref crews in a row that allow tons of physical play and don't call many fouls inside. Looks like this changes tonight with Callahan, Fraher and Brothers with little touch fouls sending guys to the line. While everybody thinks Memphis should have the matchup advantage now after seeing them with Conley back and the dominance inside, these refs could easily screw up the way Memphis likes to grind it out in the paint on both ends of the ball. When you take out the grind of Memphis through a different style of officiating, this game basically becomes a shooting contest. Not to say this benefits GSW, because if you are talking about who the hotter shooters in this series are at this moment you gotta give it to Conley + Lee as they are both shooting over 40% from deep and are much more efficient as a whole. Still though, Dubs simply been "off shooting" which is why oddsmakers haven't adjusted them much. Even with the good defense of the Grizz, the Warriors' woes right now comes from not hitting open shots, lack of ball movement, and not appropriately spacing the floor during most offensive possessions to allow the ball to flow around the court to find the open shot.

Scott Foster is terrible, but so predictable if you know his tendencies.

3ball, Glad to see you posting.

To chime in a little further on the officiating, you are 100% correct that Scott gave Cleveland that Game 4 to tie the series up. Refs could've easily given game 3 to Cleveland as well if not for the D Rose buzzer beater, but given they lost it was so easy to schedule Foster on the next to even it out.

I am not a huge conspiracy theorist, but when you look at how refs account for about 20 fts each way in a typical game, just ignoring a few fouls throughout the game can make a huge difference. I'm not a believer that the outcomes are predetermined before a game, but the what the officials decide to put their emphasis on is predetermined. I don't believe the NBA has an agenda to advance any one team (then why would Spurs go b2b?) - just to generate the most revenue by extending any series they can. Sometimes your team just sucks too much for the refs to even help close the gap (i.e. Raptors, Mavs, Blazers, Pels - all of these teams could've won a game more than they did, but couldn't capitalize on the help they were given in certain games).

Given the amount of BS people and even announcers have given towards the biased officiating in Game 3 and 4 in Bulls/Cavs, it is highly unlikely Bulls get 3 terrible ref crews in a row. On top of that, refs will look back at these previous games and realize they missed a ton of calls on the Cavs. Still, it is a wait and see on the ref assignments before backing Chi next game because we all know a 7 game series is in the leagues best interests (and for the fans as well).

Just one pre-game discussion from the officiating crew about whether they want to focus on offensive fouls or not (or other infractions) can mean the difference in a teams pace and their chances of covering.

Clippers may not have advanced vs the Spurs if they refs were really astute about calling moving screens and defensive 3 secs. Yet you can also make a case that the Spurs shouldn't have even gone to 7 games with what went down in game 5 with the questionable calls to extend the series.

CT,

Thanks for keeping intellectual material on the boards at blankets. You could be flying solo doing this but yet you take the time to write-up your plays and analysis to help others. Your insight has always been much appreciated and you have the mindset of a winner regardless of the games' outcomes.

Positive things happen to positive thinking people. Stay confident and wise my friend. 

Good to see you still have the enthusiasm and passion for the NBA. It seems like the first day of school around bedsheets with all the kids forming their cliques and inner circles. Unfortunately I do not feel like this is a resource that can beneficially help my handicapping and knowledge in basketball (otherwise you would see me post more often). I understand why you hang around here and it is admirable you take the time to rationalize the decisions you make and respond to others. I just cannot do it on a regular basis or I become absorbed with stupidity and misinformation which clouds my way of thinking.

If you would like to reach out and talk sometime feel free to PM me or e-mail me. Also if you are interested I can send you a spreadsheet of plays I have circled for the next few weeks of the season.

Take care my friend, and remember your own words that the NBA season is a "marathon and not a sprint."

CT, Always good to see you. Good Luck this season.

Good to see you on ATL brother.  Nugs are not the team everybody thinks they are.  The road team looks more accustomed the the altitude at this point.  Pantoja has oddly reffed a lot of road wins in her short NBA career. 

CT - I only came back today to see what you, Kap and a few other people have to say about Denver because I value your thoughts. 

I totally agree with your statements.  I am on ATL too. 

Do everyone a favor and remove yourself from this site. 

Your reasons for supporting Portland are littered with fallacies.  Until you learn to avoid betting with bias you are leading everyone astray regardless of the outcome of the game. 

My mom was pouring in on the Spurs to buy off her Heat series bet. 

The books don't have to win every game you know.  They concede from time to time to create the illusion that the public is the winning side. 

Why wouldn't oddsmakers put themselves in that position every once in a while making an off line - it happens every week during the regular season and a few times during the playoffs.  Not even saying this line is off.  Why can't a game 7 be one of those games where the line is altered a bit to attract more one sided action.  Most of those who win tonight will just give it back to the books anyways.

This is kind of irrelevant if you think that there is a ton of money tied up in series bets.  Isn't it possible there is a good amount of people buying off of their series bets right now to skew numbers quite a bit?  I agree, those % are put out their by the books because it gives bettors the illusion of having another edge by fading the public.  The public has to win occasionally to get them to keep betting.  The truth is about 98% of those who pick the correct winner tonight will end up giving their winnings back in the next couple of weeks - or days.

So much for helping each other.

It doesn't matter if others are on the Spurs are you going to follow them because you cannot make up your own mind?  Public percentages mean nothing. 

What an ugly thread. 

In the NBA you look at patterns - which are constant

Trends can easily be broken. 

In your analogy, you need to take a hard look at that coin and make sure one side isn't weighted more than the other (which most coins are to some extent).  If you truly the coin is weighted to the point where your chances become around 55-60%, you may want to look into playing that side every time.  Over 100 flips, you'll be up a little. 

As best said by kap on this forum, sports betting is a marathon not a race.  Get rich quick schemes will bury you quickly. 

Maybe you should look into Scott Foster and who the most $ is pouring in on.

For betting so many years - you should know stats are irrelevant at this point in the Finals. 

I don't do totals anymore.

There is some interesting research that shows those who predict totals are worse at predicting outcomes - and those who bet outcomes are worse at predicting totals.  Find your strengths and use it to your advantage. 

Love your analysis.  There is no way the Spurs had time to sleep  and rest from the last game. 

Scott Foster and the rabbit out of the hat.

Expect the unexpected.

Spurs +6

I'm on Spurs heavy.  If you look into Tony Brothers and Ed Malloy with the Miami Heat it will yield some interesting results. 

Good Luck to everybody in the Association