nBilln

I think da Silva's their best player btw.

Ziarie and Daejon Davis are out which hurts their depth, but Ziarie's basically a hyper-inefficient chucker.

Think there might be value on Stanford +6 at home here. We've seen P12 teams without their main guys (ASU, WSU) battle and cover against superior teams. Once they force feed da Silva, itll be pretty hard to stop    

@BlackCannons

If EMU can make the adjustment to stop 1 on 1 dribble drives with their guards and start feeding the post, I think they can keep it in striking range.

Their zone's being ripped apart by pure athleticism and BUFF crashing the ORbds.

Like the over 2H to get a middle since BUFF never seems to make adjustments against inferior opponents 

@STLTarHeels

 66% of misses rebounded by Buffalo 

EMU's guard play is underwhelming to say the least. Buffalo's perimeter athleticism really making a difference

Going to have to rely on careless BUF turnovers to get any efficient offense going

BOL - both teams getting good looks at a decent tempo, but just not going in

if you're backing BUFF, need to hope Whitesell's able to solve the EMU zone (or somehow make up for it with lots of ORbds and transition buckets)

BUFF is a really poor 3 point shooting team as well ;/

Buffalo's looked poorly coached the last few games I've seen (bad fouls by Williams in the 1H, stalling offensive possessions)

They've tended to blow out slow-paced teams like EMich this year and struggled against others in the MAC. Given the athleticism difference, I like the 1H under and picking a side for the 2H.

Im a pure UW fade dude (from Seattle area) - their zone just doesnt work lol

Will look more into that game, but like the first stab

Good talks folks - hope ya'll enjoyed the brickfest and the ETSU 2H / FG cover

I liked how ETSU came out after the first timeout at 12 minutes. Hoping they fall behind a bit more so I can play them 2H. Getting much cleaner looks in the halfcourt than WCU (with much more dynamic shot creators in the semi transition)

For Over backers, interesting to note how ETSU has fared in 1H against up-tempo teams [cbf to get possession data]. 

Seems like they hang in there and go punch for punch while against lower-paced teams, they struggle (Furman, UAB to name a couple)

VMI (89th in tempo): 36 - 39 

WCU (63rd): 38 - 33 

Alabama (12th): 35 - 36 

Going to back the 1H total O69 and choose a 2H play based on how they look - BOL ALL 

@BlackCannons - think that makes sense. I've noticed ETSU comes out solid on the road.

@The Land / StL - interesting thoughts on WCU's dribble drive attack. They play up-and-down it seems so the long layoff and conditioning might hurt them. Their only win has been against Charleston who are a 1 man attack with Fleming (and a terrible squad) 

Think the more I look at ETSU with their new head coach, the more it looks like they've been solid and have competed with the Furmans of the world. 

Going to see if the line moves in the next hour or so - strong lean ETSU -1.5

Fordham 2H offense is always great UnderPorn. They run around madily but somehow barely score. FG cover + 2H under hits

ETSU (-1.5, 146.5) @ WCU for our 4PM showdown before the relevant games kick in.

The 'zig-zag' or splitting of series between two teams with similar strength doesn't seem to hold true in the Southern conference. 

Home dogs are 27-57 (32%) ATS going for same season revenge - figure drops to 9-25 (27%) when its within a 5 point spread. 

Most trends are pure noise and this is probably true for this one, but interesting to note. Haven't seen much of either team.

Any thoughts?

@kvly

 It's up to -8.5 -115 (Live -17.5) for me. Like how Davidson's offenses has looked and I already have a position in Fordham +19 so going to stay away a side.

What's really telling is that Davidson had 3 PFs in the 1H. Fordham was getting nothing on dribble drive penetration and really benefited from hot shooting from an ordinarily poor shooting team. Got the U67.5 -110 so will ride that for the 2H.

1H overs (total or Davidson) both likely to hit here.

Have seen nothing sustainable from the Fordham offense - think Davidson makes the adjustments on fronting entry passes and doubling down low.

As Fordham's offense continues to bog down, expecting less TOs and transition opps for Davidson. With the tempo being extremely slow (when you exclude those random fastbreaks), anyone else liking the 2H under?

Looks like markets caught up with Davidson 1H value .

Going to go with 1H O57.5, and FG Fordham +19 with the thesis that Fordham trades some inside baskets with open 3s for Davidson early. Can see Davidson easing up and slowing tempo down 2H for a game in the 14-19 differential range.  

BOL all

@smac38

I like it - Fordham's been giving up some great looks from 3 this year and they just haven't been falling.

Think Davidson hits enough to push them over the top for the 1H over. 

@Memo22

When Davidson's played like-tempo (slow) teams this year, 1H scores below.

Fordham's defense is pretty good at preventing transition opportunities so even if they shoot 15% like usual, Davidson's going to need to score in the half-court. Could see a potential 'wait-and-see' approach for the 1H and then a play on Davidson in the 2H

vs. Dayton (325th in tempo, 93rd in DRtg): 31 - 32 

@ Duquesne (231st in tempo, 78th in DRtg): 25 - 26

vs Charlotte (354th in tempo, 138th in DRtg): 27 - 33 

vs Georgia Southern (256th in tempo, 251st in DRtg) : 38 - 18

@ Providence (299th in tempo, 101st in DRtg): 31 - 35 

Fordham @ Davidson (-18.5, 122) is our first game on board at 1PM et.

Leaning Davidson given their small, but favorable track record under McKillop as large favorites in conference matchups (Since 2012, 15-12 ATS as DD favorites, 3-0 when its expected to be a low scoring affair [<135])   

Like what Fordham brings inside with Soriano, but Davidson's big men are pretty crafty and the athleticism gap isn't overwhelming. Fordham's success as a large dog has purely come from streaky 3 point shooting, which they've done a decent job at holding.   

Any thoughts on the side or total?