NFLKiller

10,000 wins 71,500

 

Titans to win SB.

 

The most undervalued SB pick Ive seen in over a decade.  I spread over two sportsbooks to hedge payout risk

This smells fishy to me.  Spurs -190 looks ok, but pistons take care of biz at home, and when they lose, it's usually barely.  The fact this isn't at -6 tells me big money is on the + side, and public is on the -.  73% Public pick and the line hasn't budged.

 

Home team has won the last 7 matches.

Well you hear the fade...Panthers ML, Patriots Plus Points it sounds like

:)

Sounds like a little too much anger and frustration to NOT be a make-up bet for a lot of losses.

GL though, I have Pats +3.5 -135 and Panthers ml -150

That's why you're a prospect.  Don't give ABSOLUTE advice like you are smarter than anyone on here.  Trust me, you're not

As a matter of fact, if you look at oldwiseone's logic (and mine in many instances), it makes perfect sense.  Just think about this...

Point #1:
Who knows MORE than the oddsmakers??  Noone, not even G-d.  If you don't agree with this, don't continue reading.  If you do, point #2...

Point #2: 
These oddsmakers, or let's just call them what they are which are oracles, set the number at what THEY think about the game and how THEY think it will result.

Point #3:
If Point #2 is true, and assuming spreads are even #'s (+3, +4, etc), then it can be said that a game is capped to "push" (hence the handicap system's DEFINITION which is to handicap teams to be EVEN).

Point #4:
Buying points around a bet that WOULD have pushed, AUTOMATICALLY means you won (If you don't understand that math, comment on this post and I'll explain in 5th Grade detail).

Point #5:
Is the extra 10-30% vig betting as an oddsmaker worth it?  Said a different way, would you rather bet +100 on YOUR knowledge of the sides, OR, bet -110 to -130 odds using THEIR knowledge and win if the game pushes, REGARDLESS the side you choose.


This is not saying I know it all, but I'm SURE as hell saying you, Chaloots, have no clue where your neck ends and your butt cheeks start.


Personally, I bought .5 points and am taking Pats +3.5 at -135 for 5 units.

Also sprinkling Panthers winning by 1-6 at +350 for 1/2 unit

Key for me is Cam during the press conference...

"We need this more than ANYTHING."

I've learned the quickest way to lose something is to want it too badly.  Panthers D will be why they win by 3, not Cam for all you Cam Lovers

Is Clippers Lakers not a home team for both squads?  I understand the fans having season tickets, but as far as game prep, shooting spots, I feel like the clips already lost their home game against the lake show (a BIG statement game for a home opener for LA supremacy).

Just sayin, Clips might be one of those squads to fade until they click during a long season.

Just my thoughts...I like golden state at +210 for the game honestly.  Maybe I'll throw GS + a lot of points at half if I think I'm right, laying off until then.

Good luck

How about you try something crazy, and actually do your OWN research, make your OWN picks, and quit complaining to Covers' Members about how you can't pay your kids cell phone bill.

CINCY ML -110 500 WINS 490

My previous post had incorrect formatting, and I want to make sure when I call out these jokers, it's using somewhat good grammar. 

Thanks Rocklocks!

Now let's get this bulls +12 in Miami!

Go Bulls!

I'm taking bulls ml +270.

Bulls ml, +270.  I bet Nets in Chicago, fyi.  

So you don't see find that 68% of the public is on Bulls +5.5 and the line hasn't MOVED a half a point?  Or that every person and their mother thinks this game is gonna be a close one?

I am a die-hard bulls fan, which is why I tend to stay away from these types of games.  But having said all of that, and the lines-makers KNOWING these games come down to the wire, +5.5 Bulls seems like the trap bet of the week.

I'm playing Nets -5.5 or nothing at all.  Good luck though, I always hope for my covers' hommies to take ANY book!  lol

No way, DRose is out?  Thanks for the update!  I'll be sure and check back in for any groundbreaking updates!

What a call on the score...6-1 st louis in top of 7th, impressive

#1 rule of sportsbetting I've learned over the years, sharps don't move lines, the public does

The line is moving like a banshee warrior before the game, +115 down to -120, now up to +105.  Again, I think this is a prime example of the sharps gobbling up the line movement, like hedge funds do on stock prices

This one killed me, ONLY bet was $500 on live betting down 2-0 for kings ml +284, wins 1420, pays 1920.

I put 300 on +2.5, and 300 on +1.5 at different points, but still...

After the goal scored for the Kings, I was elated.

4 seconds left in regulation, I pooped myself

Read below, I PROMISE you'll at least get a chuckle.  I spent time on it, so enjoy :)

1st NHL Post, 7-5 in NBA and NFL posted picks.  (started 7-1, haven't posted in almost a month)

NHL ATS YTD Posted Picks-  0-0

Columbus ml +110

1500 wins 1650

I won't spend the time on the huge analytical writeup on the game because, well, all that really matters is the W and you to not fall asleep reading a post.  Here are the reasons why I put 1.5 units on the game, without getting into in-game specific strategy and reasoning:

1) Roughly 60% Public Consensus in polling for Oilers
2) 81% Private Book Money for the Oilers
3) Oilers on back-to-back
4) Oilers 1-5 last 6 in Columbus

However...

Line Movement 20-30% in the other direction

This mean that regardless of all the walk-in Vegas money, which DOMINATES the Vegas revenue unlike some may think, and the offshore bookies (I only know numbers on top 5), the line is still moving in the other direction because of the heavy hitters making lump bets for Columbus, hence the VIOLENT line-swaying back and forth before the game---this isn't indecision, it's a tug-of-war between the public and the pro's with the insider info. 

If the professional bookies that play against Vegas AND Vegas can both make money via the betting public, this is a match made in heaven. 

Bookies love milking the public WITH Vegas like Johnny like his mum's tit.  It's an incestuous double win.  If that clouds your mind with too many dirty thoughts, here's another metaphor: a pig and a sloth in a basement playing cards laughing while watching the public cry.

Hopefully this offered some insight and not just generic, regurgitated nonsense that I so often read recently in the forum. 

There are ALWAYS the great vets that I keep coming back for, so I hope to contribute to add to steady rock that is this covers forum!

BOL

NOTE:  When I made the pick last night, I got +115, but when I started writing the article, it was at +110 (I made an extra 5%, but figured I'd make it accurate with the 'then current' spread).  However, now as I'm ready to submit and checked, it fluctuated all the way to Columbus -120, back to -105, now at +100.  This makes me feel even more sure about my pick and above analysis.  Good luck fellas (and lady fellas)

93% of my book's players are betting the Sharks.  Smells fishy

I'm GUESSING Phoenix in OT based off of this low line against a horrendous Coyotes squad on the road.

Good luck though, just seems too easy

ADDING:

Hawks@Canucks 1ST PERIOD OVER 1.5 -120    3 UNITS

My first NHL post, but it's 5 large for me so I couldn't resist.

********    5 UNITS    ********

Blackhawks @ Canucks under 5.5 @ -115


I'm 7-5 posted NBA after a hot 7-2 start.

Like I said, this is my virgin NHL post of the season, but will update my record as it comes along.

Cheers!