Not_Jimmy_Hoffa

Not_Jimmy_Hoffa
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Last Activity: 23 June 2019
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created a topic Sunday Picks
in Horse Racing
Show us what you've got going for today.

I'm playing Gulfstream while the sun is out.

--------------------

Race 2-pick four 

A ticket with B backups for each race.

A ticket=4--5,6--5--1,2

B back ups=1,9,10--4,7--2,9,10--zip  

$16 total

--------------------

Race 5 pick four

1,2--1,2,4,5,6,7,8,11,12--5--4,5,9   

$27

-------------------

Race 10 pick three

7,10--5--all

$12

Good luck
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Not_Jimmy_Hoffa 1
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replied to the preakness field
in Horse Racing
I wonder if War of Will might go off the wiseguy favorite.

Bodexpress seems like a value play, at least to get in the tri.  I think players will forget how strong he was running in the Derby before he got sandwiched in the cluster turning for home.  When he got it back together, he still had horse, but it took too long to find room to run.

He beat Bourbon War and finished right behind MS in the Florida Derby, but his ML is almost double Bourbon War...
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pittsburghphil 3
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replied to 8 13 20
in Horse Racing
Quote Originally Posted by Jpwegiel:

So I just hit for 11k on the tri box, got lucky.  My bookie not covering (online site). Nothing in rules, but now saying only will be a certain amount for every dollar.  I’ve been a long time lurker here.  Just curious if people had any experience with this... any suggestions.  Only getting 225/ $1 $1350 total.   Just venting and pissed. Losing 10k- Thanks for listening


Wow, that is a tough way to learn the rules.  I'm the type that reads all the rules before I play.  I can tell you exactly how a show bet is paid out at the track, for example.  (I can tell you a helluva story about a show bet if you want to hear it).

They stiff you like that on the off shore boats here, but if a friend wants to go to the casino, then at least I can play the horses, because I won't touch the casino games.  I just don't go for tris or supers or big pick 3's.

You might get a fair trade-off with the kick back from some of those sites.  If you just like to play big money to win, then you might get 2 or 3% back or something like that.  It might be better for that guy, I guess.

I use DRF when I can't get to the dog track, and they pay track odds on everything about 10 seconds after the race is official.  The kickback is free on-line Racing Forms, which is a nice perk to me.

Considering how many different ways that race could have ended with the mess leaving the turn and the DQ and the horses who lost their best chance (and nearly their lives!), I'd just be happy to cash that ticket and bank the lesson for next time.
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Jpwegiel 6
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replied to KENTUCKY DERBY //// Let's make some $$$$$$
in Horse Racing
After the DQ, I lucked into a couple big shots at a pick 3 with 2 or 6 in race 13.  

I have a 12/all/2,6 (the 12 was Bricks and Mortar at something like 6/5)
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DoubleUp4Life 69
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replied to The DQ...
in Horse Racing
Quote Originally Posted by dcp1985:

I don't know the rules word for word like I do in other sports, nor have the experience of seeing hundreds of inquiries and decisions...

Maximum Security definitely impeded the 1 and in turn the 18 which I understand is worthy of a DQ by the rules.

Philosophically though, I have a problem with the fact that the 20 horse who wasn't affected, or at least wasn't affected to the level that would warrant a DQ, was the one who objected.  He objected because he came 2nd and thought "if I can get that horse DQ'd I win the Derby", not because he was impeded.  It's one of the most weasel moves I can think of.

What I would be interested to know is if the 20 didn't object would the 1 or 18 have objected?

You pose an interesting question, and I think that the connections of the two horses that got hosed were willing to sit on their hands.  That is because even if it did cost them big, all they could get out of it is moving up from 9 to 8 or wherever they finally ended up +1.  There was not going to be justice for them if they did in fact have the horse to finish in the money.

Country House did have a lot to gain, so they took a shot.  A lot of us would make a 'weasel' move for a half a million or so.

But, the real weasels were the stewards, who must have seen the incident live, as I did, yet sat on their hands instead of calling a general inquiry.  They did not want to take on that burden, and instead let it be forced upon them to do their jobs. Based on the final outcome being a DQ, it was their duty to call for an inquiry, and they tried to worm their way out of it, evidently. 
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Not_Jimmy_Hoffa 15
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created a topic The DQ...
in Horse Racing
I know you all have an opinion...

I think they did the right thing, as the 1 and 18 were cut off pretty badly.
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Not_Jimmy_Hoffa 15
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replied to KENTUCKY DERBY //// Let's make some $$$$$$
in Horse Racing
super key 7 / 2,6,8,13,21

^Posting for bragging rights, just in case we hit it.  (I formed a "syndicate" with a couple friends at the dog track) 

I had the tri with the Chad Brown #3 in race 9 on the turf that got me back square, after playing small all day.  It was a good time with old friends, though, and I came home to watch the big one away from all the drunks.

Good luck all!
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DoubleUp4Life 69
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replied to Anyone know the DD payout with Serengeti Empress?
in Horse Racing
Thanks-I have a double going with Vekoma.

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vetdrm 6
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replied to Yearly Derby Pool with prizes
in Horse Racing
$5 Vekoma

$5 Maximum Security
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djbrow 36
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created a topic Sunday picks
in Horse Racing
Tell us what you like today...

At Gulfstream:

I like Trilby in race 1, who should finally get some pace to chase today.

In race 2, I like Stellamattutina, who should be able to coast a bit up front.

In race 6, Ten Bands looks like great value at 6:1 in his comeback race.  He was on cruise control in a big win on the dirt before the layoff, and he is bred for just this spot (turf sprint).

In race 10, Son of Oahu also looks like good value after a tough trip last time, though Montclair might get the best of him.  It could be a good exacta box, or I might throw in Uno Emayo for a 3 way box if the price is right.


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Not_Jimmy_Hoffa 1
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replied to lookingvpast the favorites....
in Horse Racing
Maybe my Florida bias is showing, but I don't think you are looking past the favorites with Maximum Security.  I can't see how he goes off more than 5 or 6 to 1.  He's undefeated and never looked like he was asked for his best in any race.  The only catch is they let him coast a bit in the Florida Derby, and he might not like running in traffic if things shake out different on Derby day.  
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nature1970 6
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replied to Saturday Gulfstream Race #11
in Horse Racing
Quote Originally Posted by Not_Jimmy_Hoffa:

race 5-I like #3 Cryogenic--Teak got the jump on him last time and shot home in 11+1 while he waited for room to run, but he was much the best of the rest

race 6-I won't try to beat Scam but there is no value 

race 9--Looks like 5,6,7 in some order, but I will take the 7 because it looks like a good setup with all the speed.

race 11--The 12 you mentioned looks good, but I will take the 6 because he had a troubled trip last time on the turf.  8 has some shot to steal, too.

Cryogenic and Scam both won and I had a good day.  But, I would have more than doubled my take for the day if I did not shave $2 off my first pick 3 ticket and miss a nice hit. 
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Midnight1 8
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replied to Saturday Gulfstream Race #11
in Horse Racing
race 5-I like #3 Cryogenic--Teak got the jump on him last time and shot home in 11+1 while he waited for room to run, but he was much the best of the rest

race 6-I won't try to beat Scam but there is no value 

race 9--Looks like 5,6,7 in some order, but I will take the 7 because it looks like a good setup with all the speed.

race 11--The 12 you mentioned looks good, but I will take the 6 because he had a troubled trip last time on the turf.  8 has some shot to steal, too.
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Midnight1 8
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created a topic Sunday picks
in Horse Racing
Tell us what you like today.

-----

At Gulfstream in race 8, R Kiss Em Goodbye looks like good speed from the rail at a short price.  I'll put him with another single in race 9 for first time starter Ten Carat Daddy, a son of Scat Daddy going out for Dizney and Casse at 6/1 m/l.

You're halfway to the late pick 4 for 50 cents, and the rest is on you.

Good luck everyone.
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Not_Jimmy_Hoffa 1
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replied to The "All" Button
in Horse Racing
Oops, I looked at the wrong chart.  The favorite in race 7 was dfl, which is just what you want when you hit the all button, I guess.
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Not_Jimmy_Hoffa 3
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created a topic The "All" Button
in Horse Racing
Do you play "all"?  

How often, and in what situations do you hit that button?  Do you use it on top or on the bottom of vertical bets, or in doubles, pick 3's and such?  Do you think it adds value?  Is it a cop out or a smart play?  Give us a hypothetical or a real life example.  

---

I look to play all in multi-race wagers, when I distrust or flat hate the favorite, and can see at least 4 or 5 real contenders, or the race is a complete mystery.  The value is only there if you beat the favorite, and perhaps a smart play would be to omit the favorite, or the top 2 or 3 choices, instead of using the all.  And, to be honest, there are usually a couple in any race that look like they have no chance and could be left off the ticket.  But, when one of those does win...(I hit a pick 3 for $1 at Gulfstream once that had a 2:1, 5:2 and 98:1 and paid $3000)

Yesterday, I had the late pick 3 at Indianna Grand, using just the two favorites in race 6, all in race 7, and the favorite in race 8.  It only cost $8, and I liked my chances to get a hit, and thought the middle leg was rather wide open.  The middle winner was 18:1, and the payout was $321 for 50 cents, while win parlay was about $105 for 50 cents.

So, perhaps there was value there, based on win odds, but maybe a more focused play would be better value, and there was always the chance of catching the favorite in the middle and getting less than win parlay (the favorite was second by a neck, btw...).
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Not_Jimmy_Hoffa 3
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created a topic Sunday Plays
in Horse Racing
Give us some plays, wherever you are finding action today.

Here are my best of the day: 

Gulfstream race 5 - .50 pick 3 - $8   = 2,3,5,7 // 4 // 1,3,7,8 
Gulfstream race 8 - .50 pick 4 - $24 = 1,3,6,10 // 2,3,5,6 // 6 // 2,3,5

Keeneland race 2 - .50 pick 4 - $15 = 3 // 6 // 2,4,6,7,8 // 1,2,3,4,9,10
Keeneland race 6 - .50 pick 4 - $20 = 1 // 5,9 // 2,3,4,7 // 2,3,4,5,9
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Not_Jimmy_Hoffa 1
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replied to Keeneland 4/6
in Horse Racing
It doesn't look like any of us nailed down much.  At least I was right about one thing...

Quote Originally Posted by Not_Jimmy_Hoffa:

Favorites keep rolling at Keeneland, but the bomb will go off soon enough.

There were a couple bombs today.

94.40, 28.20, 106.20.

It was a great day of racing though.  Vekoma stamped his ticket.  Did anyone else notice he was thinking about heading to the grandstands for popcorn in the stretch?  He lost focus in the Nashua, too.  I guess it shows how much talent he has to win goofing around, but he can't goof off on Derby day and win. 
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Not_Jimmy_Hoffa 7
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replied to Keeneland 4/6
in Horse Racing
Quote Originally Posted by Midnight1:

In the 6th @ Keenland, I like #2 Recruiting Ready.

Headed to Gulfstream (lousy card) for the action at Keenland & the BIGA.

BOL to all...an_cheers 


With Copper Town scratching, I would give him a good chance.  He'll probably lead for at least 5 or 6f.  If they give him any breathing room he could steal it.
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Not_Jimmy_Hoffa 7
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replied to Keeneland 4/6
in Horse Racing
Quote Originally Posted by Projeff:

Not Jimmy - I like those picks especially Dynabee!

A couple of 12/1 ML's to keep an eye on at Keenland today:

6th - #4 - Uncontested

10th - #6 - Dream Maker - Gray colt by Tapit - Love the breeding. Didn't run well in TB Derby, but prior to that ran bang up at FG and has been working lights out in mornings at Keenland.


Uncontested--ran track record times in the last two.  It's Laurel, but still...  Should be worth a shot at double digits

Dream maker--Casse and Oxley, so maybe.  It feels like an 'all' race for me.  Favorites keep rolling at Keeneland, but the bomb will go off soon enough.  I played an "all"/9 double in there with Hungry Kitten in the 11th.
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Not_Jimmy_Hoffa 7
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